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Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic

Well, even if you dismiss the possibility of blatant lies about the number, getting a perfectly accurate number is rather difficult.

For exemple, in France, until today, we didn't have the specific number for Nursing home. And it is still, according the Ministry
of Health, pretty unaccurate.

By the way, while this epidemy is showing pretty starkly how ill prepared the world is, one should remember that it still not
as if we were facing the horror of the Black Plague.

I will not dispute that the situation is serious, i am keenly aware of that.

Afterall, my nephew and my sister caught it. And i have a 70 years-old mother. And my Grandmother is 93. Fortunately, both
are still in good health.

As serious as Covid-19 is, it is not a Sanitary Disaster.

At still not yet...
 
OverMaster said:
Three months this thing's been rampaging around the whole world and they still can't make calculations...

Well. I guess maybe in forty years, when most of us are dead already, they might give us a proper assesment then.
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The issue isn't making calculations. It's gathering data... or, in other words, getting the base numbers to make the calculations from.

Here. This is a link to the website for the STROBE statement, a relatively simple list (or set of lists) of the most important items which need to be talked about in any effort to answer the questions you're talking about. Given the specific question, this is the specific document you want.

Unfortunately, most of the explanation and elaboration documents I'd normally link appear to be down (as Oxford Academic appears to be having technical issues). BMJ is suffering similar problems (and I can't even run a basic search on their site at the moment).

That's a bit of basics on what we need to understand the numbers before we start doing calculations.

The numbers people are talking about above? They're generally generated from biased settings (that we know are biased), such as nursing homes or hospitals. In the former case, nursing home residents aren't exactly typical patients (even for their age ranges). In the latter, the hospital staff don't see you unless you're having significant issues, meaning that their numbers are generally leaving out the people with more mild symptoms. They may be able to give you numbers on what to expect if you experience a cytokine storm and need to be hospitalized and put on oxygen... but they won't directly know how many people they aren't seeing.

And the testing issues we're having don't help.

And all the above is on top of the issues that were discussed by Egglord or the possibility of people "cooking the books" as it were.

The people who would normally be working on all of this and getting us better numbers anyway? They're disproportionately the ones on the front lines, actively and desperately trying to keep people alive. Or working on things like getting fucking ventilators where they're needed. Or trying to develop a vaccine. Or... well, you get the idea.
 
OverMaster said:
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That's very difficult to answer at this time, unfortunately, other than that they are more at risk than all the younger age brackets.

Because they are over 65 -- and as we grow older, our immune systems become weaker -- so extra precautions should be taken. We monitor anyone over the age of 65 quite closely ourselves during this time. We especially don't want to take any chances when it comes to them.

wichajster said:
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Yes. The possibility of permanent lung damage is there - people can get some reduced lung capacity. If it does get bad enough, as we know, more severe acute infections/pneumonia can cause scarring in the lungs.

There currently isn't that much data on long-term damage just yet, to be really honest with you, so it's hard to say what the chances are. Lots of variables there. Apologies if this answer isn't particularly helpful.

Aleh said:
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Thank you. Very elegantly explained.
 
Egglord said:
Thank you. Very elegantly explained.
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You're welcome... although I thought it was notably incomplete. I didn't get into the challenges involved in estimating risk with these things... or the statistical methods that would need to be used (e.g. multivariate regression analysis across demographics if you're going to generate a probability model of outcomes based on an arbitrary set of risk factors while taking into account interactions) and the problems that come with them (e.g. the resultant statistical power issues, especially after you try to correct for multiple comparisons).

Egglord said:
Yes. The possibility of permanent lung damage is there - people can get some reduced lung capacity. If it does get bad enough, as we know, more severe acute infections/pneumonia can cause scarring in the lungs.
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You're forgetting that putting people on ventilators for a long period of time, especially on higher settings, can cause lung damage too, which is fun in its own way.
 
Aleh said:
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Thank you for typing that out nonetheless and adding to my answers. I don't have a lot of time or energy unfortunately to go into too much detail, but I wanted to spare what help I could. There's very little else I can think about sometimes in my downtime.

I hope it slows down soon. The stress is starting to crush my (and everyone's) health a little, but it's going to be like that for the foreseeable 6-8 weeks at the minimum. Longer if people don't follow isolation rules or listen.

It's very important to be kind to each other, okay?
 
-just got watching someone on TV (I think it was the state governor person) say that the lockdown is still in effect while letting in my dog-

-sees 5 little kids riding bikes around outside-

...Okay. I know it's probably annoying to keep your kid inside for so long but at least keep them in the backyard if you do let them out when a lockdown is in effect.
 
Well, enforcing a lockdown is actualy quite difficult, in spite of what game like Prototype may have lead you
to believe.

In reality, it depends of the people's willingness to follow the restrictions laid down. There are simply not
enought policemen nor soldiers to patrol every street in every cities. Even in the most autoritarian countries.
 
Honestly, I kinda live in a hot zone. There is an exception for walking dogs and stuff but I don't think there's for kids running around unsupervised and visiting each other.

Btw, I've been monitoring myself and I don't think I have the virus and it is my normal crap instead.
 
TanaNari said:
You limit your thinking. The only rule is to avoid human contact, right?

The outdoors are vast, and some of the trees are pretty cute. Just saying.
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At last it feels like a QQ thread! :p
dendrophilia-when-you-just-want-to-fuck-a-tree-imgflip-com-50410421.png
 
OverReactionGuy said:
Gotta love that it's within human nature to personify something deadly to them just so they can draw a human fucking it.

Humanity fuck ya indeed.
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It's called Dark Humor. I'd rather joke about bad stuff happening that I can't change than to become a depressed and anxious mess by overthinking things.
 
OverReactionGuy said:
Gotta love that it's within human nature to personify something deadly to them just so they can draw a human fucking it.

Humanity fuck ya indeed.
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The personification of phenomena and disasters is an habit as old as civilization itself. Giving an understandable face to Something unfathomable
is our way to cope.

Declaring our confidence in defeating this disease in such way is barely a blip on the radar, compared to many disturbing imagery drawn by mankind during its history.

For exemple :" The Birth of Aphrodite." How the cut ballsacks of Ouranos begat the goddess of love and Beauty.
 
Nickballas said:
It's called Dark Humor. I'd rather joke about bad stuff happening that I can't change than to become a depressed and anxious mess by overthinking things.
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Some of it is black humor. I like that part. But some of it seems to be more like an impromptu apocalypse cult with various levels of extensive irony involved.
 
seeing_octarine said:
Some of it is black humor. I like that part. But some of it seems to be more like an impromptu apocalypse cult with various levels of extensive irony involved.
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Ia ia waifu fhtagn.

But seriously, just view any impromptu cults as the harmless humor devices that they are.

Harmful things don't seem to look like apocalypse cults. They look like dismissive genuine ignorance, or willful politically-motivated ignorance. (Specific examples of the latter are obviously forbidden on this site so I'm not going to say more here.)
 
I find the whole fetishization of the antropomorphic racist depiction of a virus currently killing thousands of innocents through the whole world to be in bad taste.

There's a point past which 'Respect the dead and grieving' should overrule 'Don't kinkshame'.
 
OverMaster said:
I find the whole fetishization of the antropomorphic racist depiction of a virus currently killing thousands of innocents through the whole world to be in bad taste.

There's a point past which 'Respect the dead and grieving' should overrule 'Don't kinkshame'.
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If you think it's in bad taste that's fine. Not everyone has that opinion though. Also it might be a coping mechanism.
 
Nickballas said:
If you think it's in bad taste that's fine. Not everyone has that opinion though. Also it might be a coping mechanism.
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I doubt anyone posting 'cute genderbent Osama-chan' right after 9/11 wouldn't have been drummed out from all angles even here, why should a thing that has killed many more globally get a pass either?

Especially since as time passes by the odds some actual relative of a COVID-19 victim may pass by and see that kind of imagery, do you really think that'd be fair to those poor people?
 
OverMaster said:
I doubt anyone posting 'cute genderbent Osama-chan' right after 9/11 wouldn't have been drummed out from all angles even here, why should a thing that has killed many more globally get a pass either?

Especially since as time passes by the odds some actual relative of a COVID-19 victim may pass by and see that kind of imagery, do you really think that'd be fair to those poor people?
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Do you think it's fair to choose what people laugh about?
 
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