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Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic

Biigoh

Biigoh

Primordial Tanuki
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Joined
Feb 19, 2013
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So... I'm starting up a thread for the pandemic that's going around.

As always... stay on topic, don't go into current politics, no snipping... try to stay insult free... you know the drill.

EDIT
Things like this are on topic:
  • The current spread of the disease, where it's infecting and case numbers.
  • Personal impact of the disease on members, who here has it what is happening with those not infected in the attempts to control it.
  • Resources for information and how to avoid, detect, and treat it.
  • Current news on the measures being put into place to stop the spread or help those impacted, opinions should avoid tying things to too closely to Rule 8 since it may involve things like immigration.
  • What members should do in the meantime, such as suggestions for good supplies or methods to kill time if they are under quarantine, as well as any support for those of use afflicted.
Snipping at each other? isn't.

Also, language is a thing... so, deciding to call it "kung flu" isn't funny, so don't... ditto with things like "chinese flu"...
 
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I mean I understand the canned goods and such. Even the hand sanitizer makes sense. But the toilet paper?

More seriously even assuming a worst case. The most people will have to deal with is a quarantine. Services aren't going to break down over this. If you're in an afflicted area and young you're mostly fine.

It's grandma and grandpa that should worry.
 
lost star said:
I mean I understand the canned goods and such. Even the hand sanitizer makes sense. But the toilet paper?

More seriously even assuming a worst case. The most people will have to deal with is a quarantine. Services aren't going to break down over this. If you're in an afflicted area and young you're mostly fine.

It's grandma and grandpa that should worry.
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... yeah, no. Sorry, but a good number of people need ventilators and/or hospitalization. Without those, the death rates are going to be much higher, and we simply don't have the capacity (hospital beds, ventilators, etc.) to treat people if the number of cases spike. Here is a decent illustration of the problem. Here is an illustration of why we can't just relax and dismiss things as soon as they seem to be getting better.

In China, roughly 2.3% of cases died -- overall. However, roughly 5% suffered such complications as respiratory failure, septic shock, and multiple organ dysfunction or failure. Any of these can be fatal without treatment.

It is true that older people are more likely to die, but death is hardly limited to people over 40, and even if we were to assume the lowest age group fatality rates from China applied over the entire US population, we'd still be seeing something like 700,000 people dying with treatment if everybody gets infected... even if we could treat that many people.

We can't.

Moreover, the death rate isn't the rate of long term complications. The data I've seen is highly preliminary, but it seems that anywhere from something like 5-50% (highly preliminary data means small sample sizes and thus large confidence intervals) of cases result in a substantial, permanent loss of lung capacity, for instance.

In other words, this is a fucking nasty disease, and an utterly nasty global pandemic.

And that's about all I can really say without getting into politics.
 
Where is toilet paper produced? I know China still has problems with its factories.

Honestly this thing looks like its a nightmare to try and contain with long incubation times and the ability to spread it while not showing any symptoms.Unless we ban all international travel it doesn't look like this will ever go away
 
Look, people might deal with starvation and sickness, but having TP is such a comfort no one is daring to risk going without. And its not like it's going to expire any time soon, so a bigger stash just means more security and comfort. Then, if some form of quarantine is enforced and it'd be inadvisable to leave home, having some spare rolls so one doesn't need to go out there to get more is just fine.

It's annoying for me everyone is buying out though, since I was running out but managed to get a pack.

Similar with some foodstuffs, for some reason one store had no milk, while the other had no eggs but was overflowing with milk. Had to visit both to get everything.

It was more difficult with meat products. Stores refuse to cut or mince it on their machines, so my plans for a steak tartare were ruined. Same with the bacon omelette.
 
Working in retail is giving me an upclose look on how people are reacting to this whole situation. They've ROYALLY cleaned out the toilet paper it is ridiculous.

I feel sorry for the people who were just out of toilet paper for the month or week and just needed a little restock.
 
I'm not sure if I'm wasting time but after reading a wikipedia page on the 'COVID-19 strand 2' wikipedia page, aside from coughing sneezing and physical contact this asshe of a virus can apparently spread through fecal mattrr as well.

Make of that what you will casue even the single sentence it's mentioned in says that the research is still unofficial/unconfirmed
 
me-meboi said:
I'm not sure if I'm wasting time but after reading a wikipedia page on the 'COVID-19 strand 2' wikipedia page, aside from coughing sneezing and physical contact this asshe of a virus can apparently spread through fecal mattrr as well.

Make of that what you will casue even the single sentence it's mentioned in says that the research is still unofficial/unconfirmed
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Remember, every time you smell a fart, molecule of someone's shit just went up your nose!
 
The Panic makes things worse. Not that I don't understand it. Wish people were calmer.

Anyway, did some math. Even if 1% of the Global Population were hit, it would be tens of millions gone. Yeah, that is rather large amount.
 
lost star said:
Found something rather cool. Anyone care to double check it? It roughly jives with what I'm hearing.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
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The sources are pretty reputable for this stuff, got a who source linked in that url that fits.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0301-sitrep-41-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6768306d_2
And much of the sources: Johns Hopkins University, Centers for Disease Control, Statista, China Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Google News, New York Times, The Guardian. Are good for the most part additionally.

Yeah, as an Aussie this is similar to what politicians and media are going about. Of course, it is a very gorgeous looking graphical method.

But damn that media mention chart.
 
lost star said:
Found something rather cool. Anyone care to double check it? It roughly jives with what I'm hearing.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
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Accurate, as far as I can tell, but the numbers of one chart are incomplete in a misleading way (there are degrees of "recovery", and it leaves out the fact that we've confirmed that reinfection is possible), and in one case (the one comparing fatality numbers across diseases) highly misleading.

For the first... well, as I noted in my own post:

Moreover, the death rate isn't the rate of long term complications. The data I've seen is highly preliminary, but it seems that anywhere from something like 5-50% (highly preliminary data means small sample sizes and thus large confidence intervals) of cases result in a substantial, permanent loss of lung capacity, for instance.
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Let me be blunt here: Someone who's lost a substantial portion of their lung capacity to organ damage is effectively crippled for life. Given the portions of loss we're talking about in some reports, they can't run, play sports, or even work out credibly without gasping for breath... and that's not going to change. Ever.

Putting someone who suffered damage like that in the unqualified "recovered" factor is misleading at best.

For the other one... well, at least they were honest enough to note that that number is going to increase. We're in the early stages here, and containment efforts have failed -- dramatically so.

Again, there's a lot I could -- should -- say here, but can't due to Rule 8. I literally can't go into much more detail without getting into our response efforts, and those are inherently political. Worse, aspects of them get into active political controversy or involve discussing the actions of polarizing figures (notably including Donald Trump and Boris Johnson) at various points in this. This is true regardless of how much I try to stick simply to the facts or how neutrally I try to portray things.

This frustrates me, as a pandemic is one of the classical scenarios in which the availability of accurate information saves lives -- and I value the community here enough to want you to have it. On the other hand, I also recognize both that this specific information isn't particularly likely to save any of you and that you really shouldn't be getting your emergency survival information on QQ anyway.
 
Aleh said:
Let me be blunt here: Someone who's lost a substantial portion of their lung capacity to organ damage is effectively crippled for life. Given the portions of loss we're talking about in some reports, they can't run, play sports, or even work out credibly without gasping for breath... and that's not going to change. Ever.

Putting someone who suffered damage like that in the unqualified "recovered" factor is misleading at best.

For the other one... well, at least they were honest enough to note that that number is going to increase. We're in the early stages here, and containment efforts have failed -- dramatically so.
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Yeah, that is something that is important to know. Also thank you for keeping it calm. No need for the usual bs on here. *Is one of those who is in danger*

As one of those 'Hope for the best, Prepare for the worst' types. What worries me is the Unconfirmed Cases due to it still being in the early stages. That can mean life or death with a virus that can hide. Doesn't help that certain countries are known to alter reports.
 
MerelysSoul said:
As one of those 'Hope for the best, Prepare for the worst' types. What worries me is the Unconfirmed Cases due to it still being in the early stages. That can mean life or death with a virus that can hide. Doesn't help that certain countries are known to alter reports.
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Here in the US, the main issue is the (lack of) availability of testing kits. The actual numbers are probably much, much higher than the confirmed ones.

Again, I should probably say more, but, well, Rule 8.
 
Aleh said:
Here in the US, the main issue is the (lack of) availability of testing kits. The actual numbers are probably much, much higher than the confirmed ones.
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*nods* New Mexican so I know all about that. We also don't have the ability to process large amounts of them. Anyway, another thing I am worried about is re-infection. That would make things even harder to keep track.
 
Gotta tell you, at least the bloody stockpiling craze at supermarkets has given me no shortage of security work, and damn good pay too. But gotta tell you, especially in my town in Aus, bloody wankers when it comes to toilet paper like it is literally the lifeblood now of shoppers.

Some of the stores I work, which are the big chains like Coles and Woolworths (our big brand supermarkets of Australia), still end up running out of stock for the necessities during this 'community hour', which is supposed to give the elderly and those who are disabled an hour to shop free of other shop goers. On a side note, Woolworths usually opens there stores at six, and the community hour starts at seven. So obviously, they run out. They try to keep some for those for community hour but there are so many people who try and hide to get there stockpile.

Just my two cents on this, plenty of money, sick of telling wankers to fuck off during community hour in the morning.
 
Aleh said:
Again, I should probably say more, but, well, Rule 8.
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Yeah... this definitely caught the CDC and FEMA with their pants down. It's been a century since the last time the USA faced anything resembling a pandemic, and while in theory the infrastructure was all there... exactly nobody had experience using it to its full extent. Unfortunately, the only way to be ready for system errors is experience. If we were smart, we'd hire experts from parts of the world that still have problems with Measles and Mumps for advice. But, well, those places still deal with diseases the USA all but eradicated... how expert could they be?

MerelysSoul said:
Anyway, another thing I am worried about is re-infection. That would make things even harder to keep track.
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Shouldn't be a significant factor in the long run.

This Wuhan Flu might be an unusual strain, but it's *still* a flu- future infections will happen, but they'll be far weaker than that first nasty punch- and the vaccine is already being developed. If it works anything like its close cousin, SARS... we'll have safe vaccines within a couple months.


Actually... what pisses me off is that if we spent the resources then... we'd have a working vaccine now. But SARS lacked the infectivity to spread fast and while vaccines were developed (and used) against it... they weren't widely replicated for future outbreaks because nobody in power seemed worried about the promise of a future outbreak.

Until it happened.

Granted, the vaccine for the SARS strain of Covid wouldn't work perfectly against the Wuhan strain... it would still greatly bolster the overall resistance and reduce the severity in those who are infected.
 
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Here in Venezuela we are in a pickle since the health system is very badly structured, and we are poor, so we can't spend long quarantined and without working. We don't have the means to stash on a lot of food or cleaning resources, and failures in the supply of electricity and water already were a frequent thing, I'm afraid this only stands a solid chance of further worsening them on top of everything else.
 
MerelysSoul said:
Yeah, SARS and Carona are of the same viral lineage. Only problem would have been getting the vaccine production into scale if it had any special requirements. If not then in time the vaccines would be game changer. A greater chance for certain groups to survive.
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Nothing special about it at all... the vaccine is produced exactly the same way as every other anti-flu vaccine.

The only thing is, because the 2003 SARS burned itself out as fast as it did, the vaccine never even made it to animal testing stages in the USA.

But now? Now they've skipped everything.

https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus...l-testing-phase-straight-human-trials-2941208

And because it's a mostly proven technology (it's worked on every other strain of flu we've used it on), they've already begun using the seasonal flu facilities to produce the vaccine. Nobody in the medical community thinks it will fail.

The only fear is if this strain is unusually mutative... but that's highly improbable given the gap between SARS and Wuhan. If anything, evidence suggests Covid strains are less mutative than the more common seasonal flu strains.
 
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