On a Pale Horse (Umamusume/Youjo Senki)

[The Castle of Jutland]

I honestly disagree. I think it would be interesting if the only major victories Shirogane ever achieves are the coveted Triple Crown and Triple Tiara

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Eh, there's the fact that Shirogane's strengths just aren't suited for most of the crown and tiara races.

One of the tiaras is a mile race, which well, when you greatest strength is endurance and making others burn through their own stamina, that doesn't look good. Especially with a top speed below that of your rivals.

The rest of the tiaras are The second tiara is a 2400 meters medium so Shirogane might win here, especially given how tiara competitors are usually "weaker" than crown ones. The last tiara is a 2000 medium, which while better than a mile race for Shirogane still isn't her best length. She could possibly win one of these mediums because the tiara competitors are generally "weaker" than the crown ones, but I don't see her winning both of the medium tiaras.

And as for the crown races? Things look better and paradoxically worse.

The first one is a medium 2000 meters, good but there's the enhanced competition too. All of Shirogane's rivals will be there too, and it is a Goddamn stacked generation who will be familiar-ish with Shirogane so she's further disadvantaged there too.

Second and third crown races look a lot better for Shirogane, but by that point her competitors will be very familiar with her strengths, but there is still the possibility of victory for Shirogane. I just don't think she'll gain more than 1 or 2 crowns and tiaras in total at most.

Now a G1 race she'll probably be crushing is the Spring Tenno Sho, a 3200 meters long race. That one she has in the bag.

 

[Gremlin Jack]

The rest of the tiaras are 2000 meters mediums, which while better than a mile race for Shirogane still isn't her best length. She could possibly win one of these mediums because the tiara competitors are generally "weaker" than the crown ones, but I don't see her winning both of the medium tiaras.

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Yes, thank you, that is also what I'm saying. In fact, given the quality of the competition, I think we can discount Shirogane winning any race 2000m or less. The only reason she came second in this race is because the track is a particularly hilly one. On a flat 1600m track, she'd struggle to place.

So that leaves the Tokyo Yushun (2400m) and the Kikuka-Sho (3000m) among the Crowns, and the Yushun Himba (2400m) from the Tiara.

The trouble is, both the Yushun 2400m races take place in Tokyo. In the chapter where Shirogane was trying to pick her debut track, she discounted the Tokyo track for being too flat and favoring the faster horses. And while 2400m is on the longer side for a medium race, its still within the limits of stamina of the true toppers in her year.

Unless something happens to make the Tokyo track harder to navigate (rain?) its why I'm only really expecting her to win the 3000m. And, as you said, the Spring Tenno Sho 3200m.