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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Reader mode
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] I, Panacea - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Junior Hero - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] All Alone - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1
[] Trump Card - 0
[] Recoil - 0
[] Alea Iacta Est - 0
[] Wyvern - 0
[] Confrontation II - 0
[] Hostage Situation - 0
 
Ack said:
User Errors
Jim Starluck - your Recoil vote was shown as an error. I have added it in anyway.
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Throne3d said:
I expect that's because he had the "[ /quote]" tags at the end of it. The script only ignores things that are actually quoted, because they display differently, not because it detects what you put as BB-Code. I'm glad it still seems to have a low failure rate, though.
Click to expand...
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...huh. Weird.

My first draft of that post had an open quote tag, so it must've added those on at the end, and I didn't notice when I fixed 'em.

Oh well.



This round of votes seems determined to throw as many monkey wrenches at me as possible. Most of the predicted rounds have very low margins, with at least three being almost completely up-in-the air.

First off, we have All Alone in Vote 93, currently expected to win by 20-some votes. A determined vote-swapping campaign could probably shift that around, but as it's the next vote out it's less likely. Far more precarious is Slippery Slope in Vote 94, with a mere 4 votes over its competition. Just one person dropping it from their list, or even lowering it in rank enough, will delay its win by at least a round.

Recoil is a little bit more stable in Vote 95, though not by much -- margin is projected in the teens. Could still be offset without too much difficulty, especially as it's a few more rounds out. Meet the Heberts is also further ahead, with a margin just shy of 30 votes in Vote 96. Things get a big more wobbly with Danny & Taylor in Vote 97, which falls just short of a 20-vote margin.

Then, we have what I think is a first for my predictions: a dead heat. Confrontation II and I, Panacea are both predicted to hit 1,455 votes in the same round. Obviously, only one story will actually win; Ack's policy on a tie vote favors whichever story has gone the longest without updating, which in this case is Confrontation -- its last win was Vote 75, all the way back in late October, while I, Panacea won 10 rounds later in Vote 85. But as with all predictions, things may shift one way or the other. A difference in just 1 vote per round will decide the entire rest of the prediction after that point:

If Confrontation II takes the lead, or the tie plays out as expected, I, Panacea will fall back to win Vote 99. The next three rounds then fall into place with massive margins: Security! in vote 100 by 150+, Wyvern in Vote 101 by a whopping 300+, and Alea Iacta Est in Vote 102 by 110+.

If I, Panacea manages to pull ahead, however, Confrontation gets delayed. Security! will outpace it by Vote 99, pushing Confrontation II back to Vote 100. Wyvern and Alea Iacta Est still win in votes 101 and 102, respectively, by about the same margins.


From that point we'll still have seven more stories above 1,000 votes and closing on a win. Junior Hero and One More Trigger will be closest at 1,300+, but Junior Hero is earning votes the slowest and liable to get outpaced. Hostage Situation, Trump Card and War Games will all be in the 1,200s, with Trump Card the top vote-getter. Bringing up the rear will be Nemesis at 1,100-ish and Recoil in the low 1,000s.


Accuracy in Vote 92 was approximately 95.58%, with an average difference of 12 between prediction and result. Most accurate was a tie between I, Panacea and MirrorVerse, which both came in precisely on-target. Least accurate was recent winner Alea Iacta Est, which fell 39 votes behind prediction -- only 71.11% accurate. I'm beginning to think I should build in a "last winner" factor, to drop votes earned down to about 70-80% of normal or so.



My vote:
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] One More Trigger - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] One More Trigger - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] All Alone - 1
 
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Hostage Situation - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1
 
[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] Recoil - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1
 
[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] Confrontation II - 4
[X] I, Panacea - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1

Confrontation II/Slippery Slope -> Angush
 
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Bait & Switch - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 5
[X] Security! - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] NSW - 1
 
The MMR said:
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Bait & Switch - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
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Would you consider putting Slippery Slope as your 1 vote? I like Recoil, but I'm not happy about the fact that it's poised to overtake Slippery Slope in the rounds.

I'm also open to trading my 4 vote for an equivalent Slippery Slope vote, if anyone is interested.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ack
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Nemesis - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1
 
[X] Slippery Slope - 6
[X] Confrontation II -5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] MirrorVerse - 2

I am willing to trade votes for Slippery Slope votes. But I refuse to put Danny & Taylor on my list....unless I can give it negative votes.....ALOT of negative votes.
 
*peeks in after seeing a story on FF*

Yep, Alea's yours alright. :D Thought so, then noticed the author's name. :p
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ack
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 1
 
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Security - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] Nemesis - 3
[X] All Alone - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1
​
 
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