Diplomacy (part 9)
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Mr Zoat
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Universe 191
22nd May 1954
01:53 GMT
"…proliferation of such devastating weapons to more countries."
I nod. "Japan will obviously try to develop fission bombs. They have absolutely no reason not to and every reason to do so."
"To what end?"
"To ensure that the United States won't attack them." I make a circling motion with my right hand. "As things stand, there isn't anything to stop the Untied States sending a carrier with heavy bombers on board across the Pacific and levelling Tokyo other than the diligence of the Japanese navy. And without the British and Confederate navy helping them, the United States can out-produce them by a colossal order of magnitude. The only reason why they haven't done so is because the Japanese basically ceded the Pacific and because the people of America don't have the same animus towards them that they do towards the Confederates."
"But if the United States has no intention of going to war with them, why would they need such a destructive weapon?"
I smile. "You answered your own question, there. If they start looking like an easy target, someone in the War Office will eventually suggest that your diplomatic corps lean on them. 'Why not finish the war?', they'll say, 'It's not like they can stop us.'. And the only way Japan can be sure that that won't happen is if they have a weapon that would let them return the favour. If the home islands disappear under mushroom clouds, so does the western seaboard. And as long as the American government believes that will be the result… They won't do it."
"That's… Mad."
"Yes. Mutually Assured Destruction. Each party knows that any war will result in mutual annihilation, so neither party dares attack the other. Take Britain, for example. Sure, the Germans probably aren't happy that we've got a space-based strategic weapon, but how does it actually change their calculations? They're going to maintain their fission bomber wings just in case, to retaliate in case we attack them… But we're not going to, because we can't reliably intercept the bombers that would survive our first strike. And we certainly couldn't stop the ones America would send afterwards. Likewise, even if they snuck fission bombs into every city in Britain and detonated them, they couldn't stop our astronauts retaliating once they found out who did it. So they won't."
"And you believe that if Japan doesn't get their own superbombs, war is inevitable."
"I'm not completely sure it's not inevitable anyway, but…" I nod repeatedly. "Yes."
"So you don't see the point in the treaty."
"'We're allowed these horrible weapons that can destroy entire cities in one blast, and you're not, and you're morally obliged to accept this state of affairs'?" I shrug. "Who can afford to accept something like that? I suspect that Mexico is frantically searching for any Confederate nuclear scientists who dodged the O.S.S. and didn't come here, and I suspect that Brazil is doing something similar. They have to. Anyone who doesn't have a strategic deterrent will inevitably become dominated by those who do. Any expansionist nation needs one as soon as possible. Any non-expansionist nation will need one within a decade… Two at the outside."
"Mister Talwyn, that sounds almost exactly like the alliance block philosophy that caused the Great War to spread out across the entire world."
I wiggle my right forefinger. "No. The difference is that dropping a fission bomb is so-. Darn easy when compared to mass mobilisation. It only takes a handful of people. And because it only takes a handful of people, it can be hidden so much more easily. When the Russian Empire mobilised at the start of the Great War, the Germans had months of notice, during which they could do the same thing. While trying to find a peaceful solution to the dispute." I shake my head. "That's not where we are anymore."
I tilt back my head slightly. Might as well steal all the memorable lines that I can.
"Hah. 'I don't know what weapons will be used to fight the Third Great War, but the fourth will be fought with sticks and rocks'."
"What about all of the countries that have signed up so far?"
"That wasn't a sign of the direction of travel. That was them accepting that they're either too backwards to have a nuclear program at all, or that they don't think they could get away with it before someone -probably Germany- forcibly stopped them. Or it's a play for American or German help with something or other."
"Don't you think that's a little pessimistic?"
"I literally had representatives from America and Germany in my office two weeks ago demanding that I sign." I lean forwards slightly. "They haven't been back since they found out that it was too late."
"The treaty only restricts superbomb production."
"No." I shake my head. "No. Read the full text. The enforcement mechanism involves letting representatives of America and Germany go where they like in a signatory's country, interrogate who they like, demand whatever information they like. Any country that signs becomes a puppet to their new overlords whenever those overlords demand it."
"So that's where you see the world going? A handful of powerful nations that dare not attack one another, and their puppets?"
"Mmm." I think for a moment, then nod. "Basically, yes. The United States will obviously dominate North America when it eventually beats revanchism out of the former Confederates. If Mexico has any sense then they'll ally with Brazil. If they don't, the United States will get them as well, otherwise Brazil will. Brazil gets South America, Japan gets Asia and Australasia, Germany gets Europe -except us- and no one wants Africa. And I say 'except us', but I imagine that we'll see an uptick in trade with Germany as the decades pass."
"Do you think that the alliance between the German Empire and the United States of America will remain in effect?"
"On paper? Yes. There's no real reason for the two of you to fight, and you're both busy consolidating your territorial gains. In practice, without strong enemies to be allied against it's going to lose significance. Neither country really needs to trade with the other, and neither country can really help the other with their internal problems."
"But the relationship won't turn hostile."
"I don't see why it would. Although…" I shrug. "Britain and the United States spent eighty years at loggerheads despite sharing a culture, economic system, language and religion, and having no competing territorial claims, so I suppose anything's possible."
"One last question before we wrap up for the evening. Do you really see no way to ensure lasting peace? No… Worldwide brotherhood of men?"
I think briefly about the second alien fleet drifting through the void towards us, lightly armed but carrying all of the equipment needed to begin a new colony.
"I think that the only thing that could do that would be a threat external to all of us."
"Such as?"
"Men from another world. Men with the patience to cross the vast void between the stars and come here with conquest in their weird alien hearts. I think that if the world was threatened with such an invasion, we would find all nations cooperating to protect human control of our homeworld. And with a little luck, that would stay in place when we made preparations to send a fleet to their homeworld in return, to ensure that they could never threaten us again."
"Men from Mars?"
"No, no. Mars is a frigid desert. I'm talking about further afield. Faster than light travel doesn't violate the laws of physics as we understand them, but even without that there are dozens of types of animal who can hibernate, or even survive being entirely frozen. We can't do that with humans yet, but there's no reason to assume that we're the most advanced species in the galaxy."
"Mankind's only hope for peace and unity is a war with men from another star?"
"Yes."
He works his jaw for a moment, and then for the first time in the interview risks a small smile. "I think the chances of something like that happening are a million to one."
I reach into my pocket and pull out a coin. "One silver dollar. Pre-war." I hold it out to him. "I will take those odds."
"Maybe, but my bank account won't. Mister Talwyn, thank you for speaking to me."
"Thank you."
22nd May 1954
01:53 GMT
"…proliferation of such devastating weapons to more countries."
I nod. "Japan will obviously try to develop fission bombs. They have absolutely no reason not to and every reason to do so."
"To what end?"
"To ensure that the United States won't attack them." I make a circling motion with my right hand. "As things stand, there isn't anything to stop the Untied States sending a carrier with heavy bombers on board across the Pacific and levelling Tokyo other than the diligence of the Japanese navy. And without the British and Confederate navy helping them, the United States can out-produce them by a colossal order of magnitude. The only reason why they haven't done so is because the Japanese basically ceded the Pacific and because the people of America don't have the same animus towards them that they do towards the Confederates."
"But if the United States has no intention of going to war with them, why would they need such a destructive weapon?"
I smile. "You answered your own question, there. If they start looking like an easy target, someone in the War Office will eventually suggest that your diplomatic corps lean on them. 'Why not finish the war?', they'll say, 'It's not like they can stop us.'. And the only way Japan can be sure that that won't happen is if they have a weapon that would let them return the favour. If the home islands disappear under mushroom clouds, so does the western seaboard. And as long as the American government believes that will be the result… They won't do it."
"That's… Mad."
"Yes. Mutually Assured Destruction. Each party knows that any war will result in mutual annihilation, so neither party dares attack the other. Take Britain, for example. Sure, the Germans probably aren't happy that we've got a space-based strategic weapon, but how does it actually change their calculations? They're going to maintain their fission bomber wings just in case, to retaliate in case we attack them… But we're not going to, because we can't reliably intercept the bombers that would survive our first strike. And we certainly couldn't stop the ones America would send afterwards. Likewise, even if they snuck fission bombs into every city in Britain and detonated them, they couldn't stop our astronauts retaliating once they found out who did it. So they won't."
"And you believe that if Japan doesn't get their own superbombs, war is inevitable."
"I'm not completely sure it's not inevitable anyway, but…" I nod repeatedly. "Yes."
"So you don't see the point in the treaty."
"'We're allowed these horrible weapons that can destroy entire cities in one blast, and you're not, and you're morally obliged to accept this state of affairs'?" I shrug. "Who can afford to accept something like that? I suspect that Mexico is frantically searching for any Confederate nuclear scientists who dodged the O.S.S. and didn't come here, and I suspect that Brazil is doing something similar. They have to. Anyone who doesn't have a strategic deterrent will inevitably become dominated by those who do. Any expansionist nation needs one as soon as possible. Any non-expansionist nation will need one within a decade… Two at the outside."
"Mister Talwyn, that sounds almost exactly like the alliance block philosophy that caused the Great War to spread out across the entire world."
I wiggle my right forefinger. "No. The difference is that dropping a fission bomb is so-. Darn easy when compared to mass mobilisation. It only takes a handful of people. And because it only takes a handful of people, it can be hidden so much more easily. When the Russian Empire mobilised at the start of the Great War, the Germans had months of notice, during which they could do the same thing. While trying to find a peaceful solution to the dispute." I shake my head. "That's not where we are anymore."
I tilt back my head slightly. Might as well steal all the memorable lines that I can.
"Hah. 'I don't know what weapons will be used to fight the Third Great War, but the fourth will be fought with sticks and rocks'."
"What about all of the countries that have signed up so far?"
"That wasn't a sign of the direction of travel. That was them accepting that they're either too backwards to have a nuclear program at all, or that they don't think they could get away with it before someone -probably Germany- forcibly stopped them. Or it's a play for American or German help with something or other."
"Don't you think that's a little pessimistic?"
"I literally had representatives from America and Germany in my office two weeks ago demanding that I sign." I lean forwards slightly. "They haven't been back since they found out that it was too late."
"The treaty only restricts superbomb production."
"No." I shake my head. "No. Read the full text. The enforcement mechanism involves letting representatives of America and Germany go where they like in a signatory's country, interrogate who they like, demand whatever information they like. Any country that signs becomes a puppet to their new overlords whenever those overlords demand it."
"So that's where you see the world going? A handful of powerful nations that dare not attack one another, and their puppets?"
"Mmm." I think for a moment, then nod. "Basically, yes. The United States will obviously dominate North America when it eventually beats revanchism out of the former Confederates. If Mexico has any sense then they'll ally with Brazil. If they don't, the United States will get them as well, otherwise Brazil will. Brazil gets South America, Japan gets Asia and Australasia, Germany gets Europe -except us- and no one wants Africa. And I say 'except us', but I imagine that we'll see an uptick in trade with Germany as the decades pass."
"Do you think that the alliance between the German Empire and the United States of America will remain in effect?"
"On paper? Yes. There's no real reason for the two of you to fight, and you're both busy consolidating your territorial gains. In practice, without strong enemies to be allied against it's going to lose significance. Neither country really needs to trade with the other, and neither country can really help the other with their internal problems."
"But the relationship won't turn hostile."
"I don't see why it would. Although…" I shrug. "Britain and the United States spent eighty years at loggerheads despite sharing a culture, economic system, language and religion, and having no competing territorial claims, so I suppose anything's possible."
"One last question before we wrap up for the evening. Do you really see no way to ensure lasting peace? No… Worldwide brotherhood of men?"
I think briefly about the second alien fleet drifting through the void towards us, lightly armed but carrying all of the equipment needed to begin a new colony.
"I think that the only thing that could do that would be a threat external to all of us."
"Such as?"
"Men from another world. Men with the patience to cross the vast void between the stars and come here with conquest in their weird alien hearts. I think that if the world was threatened with such an invasion, we would find all nations cooperating to protect human control of our homeworld. And with a little luck, that would stay in place when we made preparations to send a fleet to their homeworld in return, to ensure that they could never threaten us again."
"Men from Mars?"
"No, no. Mars is a frigid desert. I'm talking about further afield. Faster than light travel doesn't violate the laws of physics as we understand them, but even without that there are dozens of types of animal who can hibernate, or even survive being entirely frozen. We can't do that with humans yet, but there's no reason to assume that we're the most advanced species in the galaxy."
"Mankind's only hope for peace and unity is a war with men from another star?"
"Yes."
He works his jaw for a moment, and then for the first time in the interview risks a small smile. "I think the chances of something like that happening are a million to one."
I reach into my pocket and pull out a coin. "One silver dollar. Pre-war." I hold it out to him. "I will take those odds."
"Maybe, but my bank account won't. Mister Talwyn, thank you for speaking to me."
"Thank you."
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