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Vote Thread for Ack's Omake Corner

Reader mode
[X] Really Bad End - 6
[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est -4
[X] War Games - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
[] All Alone - 0
[] Trump Card - 0

I'll have to wait for Jim's spreadsheet post to figure out just how long I'll likely be voting for Really Bad End and Confrontation II until they reset (the two most recent of my votes receiving no points).
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Security! - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Meet the Heberts - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Hostage Situation - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
Ack said:
It's (Alea Iacta Est) certainly the closest; unless everyone jumps on the Meet the Heberts bandwagon, it'll get in next round. After that, I'm thinking I, Panacea and then Meet the Heberts.
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I don't think that's likely. AIE has been earning an average of 124 votes every round and hasn't dropped below 100 for the last 7 rounds; MTH is only managing 64 and has never managed greater than 80.

So Alea Iacta Est has sewn up Vote 72 pretty thoroughly; Meet the Heberts and I, Panacea will very nearly tie for second-place. By Vote 73, I, Panacea will almost certainly have pulled ahead to win by about 40 votes. Meet the Heberts will have to wait for Vote 74.

Wyvern looks to have Vote 75 in the bag. Vote 76 could be a close one; current predictions put Recoil about 50 votes ahead of One More Trigger, but that's far enough out for things to shift significantly between now and then. Whichever loses will take Vote 77.

Vote 78 is another potential upset; Confrontation II and Slippery Slope are still being forecast as neck-and-neck there. We'll see how long that lasts. Vote 79 goes to the loser of that contest.

Votes 80 and 81 also look like good possibilities for upsets. Hostage Situation is currently penciled in to win 80, but AIE, Really Bad End and Trump Card will all be relatively close behind it. Alea Iacta Est is similarly winning Vote 81 on paper, but Trump Card, Wyvern, Security! and Really Bad End will all be nipping at its heels. That far out, anything could happen.

Beyond Vote 81, I've added a new feature to the predictions spreadsheet: Rounds to Win! It tries to predict how many more rounds it will take a story to win, based on current predictions. Note this is counting rounds past Vote 81, not from right now. Currently, it looks like so:

Alea Iacta Est: 9 rounds
All Alone: 9 rounds
Bait & Switch: 24 rounds
Confrontation II: 21 rounds
Danny & Taylor: 21 rounds
Hostage Situation: 24 rounds
I, Panacea: 4 rounds
Junior Hero: 10 rounds
Meet the Heberts: 11 rounds
MirrorVerse: 8 rounds
NSW: 8 rounds
Nemesis: 16 rounds
One More Trigger: 14 rounds
Really Bad End: 6 rounds
Recoil: 5 rounds
Security!: 3 rounds
Slippery Slope: 20 rounds
Trump Card: 1 round
War Games: 8 rounds
Wyvern: 2 rounds

Again: this is measured from Vote 81, which is still 10 votes out. Do not take these numbers as gospel; this is an even rougher estimation than my other predictions.


Accuracy this time was 97.7%, with an average of about 8 votes off from prior predictions.

Most accurate in both proportional votes and total count was One More Trigger, which came in exactly on the money at 100% accuracy.

Least accurate proportionally was recent winner All Alone; it only earned 5 votes more than anticipated, but at its current count that made for a measly 91.94% accuracy. Least accurate in raw votes was Wyvern, which somehow managed to come in 31 votes behind its prediction -- so far behind, in fact, that Alea Iacta Est has finally knocked it off its most-votes-per-round throne!

From the moment it joined the voting, Wyvern has commanded the most votes per round by a wide margin. AIE was its closest competition, but it's always been well behind; averaging about 31 votes back, never coming closer than 11 behind. In Vote 71, however, AIE managed to earn 127 votes to Wyvern's 126 -- 1 vote more!

This is Wyvern's weakest showing to date, folks, and it may herald a major change in wins if it isn't able to pull back into the lead. Stay tuned to future predictions & analysis for more information!


Average vote-earners are currently as follows:


1: Wyvern - 155 - down 2
2: Alea Iacta Est - 124
3: Recoil - 117 - Up 1
4: Trump Card -111
5: I, Panacea - 101 - up 1
6: Security! - 78 - down 1
7: Meet the Heberts - 64 - down 1
8: One More Trigger - 63
9: All Alone - 57
10: TIED! - 50
- NSW
- Slippery Slope - up 1
11: Confrontation II - 49
12: Hostage Situation - 45
13: War Games - 44 - up 2
14: MirrorVerse - 35 - up 1
15: Nemesis - 27 - down 1
16: Danny & Taylor - 22
17: Really Bad End - 21 - up 1
18: Junior Hero - 20 - down 1
19: Bait & Switch - 19



And for my own votes:

[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Recoil - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Hostage Situation - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] I, Panacea - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] One More Trigger - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Trump Card - 1
 
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Nemesis - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1
 
[] Hypnosis Idea - 13
[X] Meet the Heberts - 6
[X] NSW - 5
[X] Really Bad End - 4
[X] Confrontation II - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Security! - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Junior Hero - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] Slippery Slope - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] NSW - 1
 
Last edited:
[X] War Games - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Wyvern - 4
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] I, Panacea - 1
 
[X] MirrorVerse - 6
[X] All Alone - 5
[X] One More Trigger - 4
[X] Security - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
Jim Starluck said:
...you realize you swapped the position of Nemesis and NSW in the list, right? Up until now NSW came before Nemesis, not the other way around. Threw me off at first; I was keying in just looking at the numbers and didn't realize it at first until I noticed they both somehow gained 200+ votes in one round.
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Yeah, well, manual tallying means that NSW comes after Nemesis, whereas QQbot puts it in front. So I've swapped it until I can get a reliable tally going,
vyor said:
https://forums.sufficientvelocity.com/threads/vote-tally-program.199/

It's the one by Kine.
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Thanks.
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 5
[X] Nemesis - 4
[X] Hostage Situation - 3
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Security! - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Recoil - 2
[X] Security! - 1
 
Locked in:
[X] All Alone - 6 (swapped for MirrorVerse with Anaja)
[X] MirrorVerse - 5 (swapped for All Alone with Snake/Eater)
[X] Slippery Slope - 4 (swapped for Confrontation II with Edale)
[X] War Games - 3 (swapped for Confrontation II with Subsider34)

Changeable:
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Meet the Heberts - 1

Anyone want to make a long-term vote swap arrangement? As in, I vote for something you want, you give the same value vote to Confrontation II (preferred) or All Alone, and we do that for the rest of our lives? (or until one of us decides to vote for something else, I guess)
 
Last edited:
[X] Confrontation II - 6
[X] I, Panacea - 5
[X] Recoil - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Security! - 2
[X] Meet the Heberts - 1
 
[X] War Games - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 4
[X] Wyvern - 3
[X] Confrontation II - 2
[X] Slippery Slope - 1
 
[X] Wyvern - 6
[X] Recoil - 5
[X] I, Panacea - 4
[X] Security! - 1
[X] Trump Card - 2
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 3
 
[X] Recoil - 6
[X] Wyvern - 5
[X] Trump Card - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Bait & Switch - 2
[X] NSW - 1
 
[X] NSW - 6
[X] Meet the Heberts - 5
[X] Danny & Taylor - 4
[X] One More Trigger - 3
[X] Hostage Situation - 2
[X] Bait & Switch - 1
 
[X] Really Bad End - 6
[X] Danny & Taylor - 5
[X] Meet the Heberts - 4
[X] Trump Card - 3
[X] Alea Iacta Est - 2
[X] Wyvern - 1
 
[X] Trump Card - 6
[X] Confrontation II - 5
[X] War Games - 4
[X] Slippery Slope - 3
[X] Junior Hero - 2
[X] All Alone - 1
 
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