Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Shaper47]

This all seems so crazy to me. This is a Name. A Name!

It's so. Damn. Cocky. To think that no, we're not going to need +40 to our combat over the next 3 turns. Or have to do another defense of our home. Or get an Edge Sacrament in a straightforward, no-risk-of-death, manner. Or have any task that could use Equestria's best combatant, by a long shot.

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Especially since he costs zero bits to keep around.

 

[spiderhellian]

I dont disagree but then we spent his action doing graverobbing. Like I said, I'd be okay with a Long Monster Hunt for 100 bits, but 180 bits is just too much when we have nothing to spend his action on next turn that uses his strengths. And the Forge Name is also a Name, y'know? I dont want to delay getting the Forge Name because the Forge Name can give us lessons, can let us work towards befriending them, as well as just generally being more useful when we're in a period of "try to grow as fast as possible within the few months of peace we have left". Biedde isn't as useful now that Copper is dead and "assassinate Celestia" isn't a way to fix the Celestia problem (selene would... uh... stop being our confidante if we did that this pre-emptively). If Biedde or Forge name has to budge to make it work then Biedde is clearly the weaker link of the two, so we need a plan that uses Biedde profitably and doesn't delay Forge Name if you want to keep him.

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I agree using him for grave robbing was a sad day. I definitely don't want to gamble we'll have no decent use for him over the next three turns.

We could do the Sacrament this turn! I find it hard to imagine we can't fit in 1 bonus AotL for a ~70% chance of victory...

 

[ses]

You know we could push the envelope and see how much it comes back to bite us if we just have Rarity do two commissions in a row... she'd have to focus on her career on turn 23 but like... we need bits. Rarity makes bits. Rarity is a Minion whose soul price we've paid thrice over. That lets us pay for Biedde, Book Expedition, SH hike, Forge Name, and maybe a couple of cheap no-reagent rituals on top? Even if we're just borrowing the bits from future turns and we dont do another commission till turn 25 it'd be well worth it.

 

[Shaper47]

Or we could just no pay bits to Biedde when we can have him stay for free.

Of people wanted to pay him maybe they shouldn't have thrown away 900 bits.

 

[des-pair-2]

You know, why don't we upgrade Rarity into a Seeker? Sure, she wouldn't be able to go with us on the All in Expedition, but would we even want to risk Rarity there if she is so weak? I certainly wouldn't. Upgrading her may even bring in more money, so I say we should teach her.

 

[AuthorTransient]

Or we could just no pay bits to Biedde when we can have him stay for free.

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If you're talking about the religious action I'm leery of it, especially since his recent actions, but I do agree the bits situation is poor.

Of people wanted to pay him maybe they shouldn't have thrown away 900 bits.

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Wait, when was this?

You know, why don't we upgrade Rarity into a Seeker? Sure, she wouldn't be able to go with us on the All in Expedition, but would we even want to risk Rarity there if she is so weak? I certainly wouldn't. Upgrading her may even bring in more money, so I say we should teach her.

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It's the AP cost, really. Wait, does teaching her also use up her follower action?

I kind of want to grab another Sacrament by next turn, either Moth or Secret Histories. I also want a Heart lesson, but I can be negotiated down. Unfortunately, I do not have enough presence of mind to try and calculate what our next turn should be like right now, not to mention any other thing that can crop up in the space between this turn and the next.

 

[ses]

It's the AP cost, really. Wait, does teaching her also use up her follower action?

I kind of want to grab another Sacrament by next turn, either Moth or Secret Histories. I also want a Heart lesson, but I can be negotiated down. Unfortunately, I do not have enough presence of mind to try and calculate what our next turn should be like right now, not to mention any other thing that can crop up in the space between this turn and the next.

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Getting the Moth sacrament requires spending a Mareinette action on finishing the cooking of Spoiled next turn, plus hitting Moth 4 4/4 via studying. While it's possible to do the SH sacrament we're probably better off delaying it until Turn 23 so that we have a max level Lantern influence for the 5 study rolls we're going to make. Assuming that Jade successfully scried the book expedition (17% failure chance), and that we successfully complete the book expedition via Axe and maybe someone else, Baldomare will be befriended at end of next turn and have 2 actions, so we can double SH Sacrament on Turn 23.

Teaching Rarity to 4/2 is probably at the top of the list of potential uses for our free Social action. If we try and push for a 2nd commission I don't think we're allowed to teach her, so we'd probably try to Confidante Cheerilee instead?

Our budget next turn is ~660 bits total.

The optimal spend if we're going full Homo Economicus brained rather than being extremely risk-averse is 440 bits total, 420 on ritual and 20 on a Forge 2 reagent. Spending a Velvet AP on more reagents only makes sense if we value a Velvet AP at <40. That's a 2.56% chance of failure with our Forge reroll. Spending an extra 2 bits for 0.3% extra success chance doesn't make sense, though out of emotional risk-aversion I'd probably drop any leftover bits in there if we have any up to a max of 450 total, but spending less than 440 total is negative EV on the marginal 2 bits. But the upper and lower bounds on what we'd value the lost actions and materials at and still have 440 bits be optimal is actually pretty large and comfortably covers all the sane estimates for the value of the lost AP and bits and then some in both directions.

That leaves 210-220 bits between the priorities of "Biedde situationship", "Second Great Book Hunt", and "Have Selene do a scry ritual for something". We'll better know our situation once we get our end of turn reports and know how expensive the Second Great Book Hunt will be. If it's a long expedition with the same price as BTRC3 we won't be able to send Axe+Partner even if take a zero bits option for Biedde. But we dont know the price yet.

And the option to get 100+ extra bits next turn if we do double Rarity commission. That would let us afford two Long Expedition tickets, plus the 60 bit option for Biedde, but not quiiiiite enough for a scry unless we highroll on Rarity income. If the Book Hunt tickets are cheaper than BTRC3 and we rolled a Medium expedition instead of a Long one we can comfortably afford everything we'd want as Second Great Book Hunt tickets would only be 70 each instead of 120. I really doubt it'll be a Medium expedition.

 

[Shaper47]

You know, why don't we upgrade Rarity into a Seeker? Sure, she wouldn't be able to go with us on the All in Expedition, but would we even want to risk Rarity there if she is so weak? I certainly wouldn't. Upgrading her may even bring in more money, so I say we should teach her.

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I'm on the go for Level 5 Grail train so she'd still be a minion in the end for All In.

That said upgrading her is a very good thing to do as it will increase her skill at her work.

Wait, when was this?

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There was 500 bits wasted on Twilight and 400 bits spent on the Bureau.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Shaper means that we voted for benefits other than Bit payouts during certain updates, rather than Velvet shelling out bits she already had, so it's understandable for such things to slip the mind. Votes that lose are rarely remembered.

 

[Shaper47]

Shaper means that we voted for benefits other than Bit payouts during certain updates, rather than Velvet shelling out bits she already had, so it's understandable for such things to slip the mind. Votes that lose are rarely remembered.

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Exactly.

Now narratively the Bureau thing was pretty cool. If we were planning on sticking around for a while I'd say it was a reasonable investment.

But these choices have consequences.

So I have exactly zero sympathy for bit complaints about Biedde when we can just not pay him and still get him to stick around.

Especially given Velvet's family first priorities. He keeps our family safe, and to Velvet I'm pretty sure it's worth it to prioritize her families safety over morality.

Besides we're planning on befriending Mareinette. Seems a bit hypocritical to complain about Biedde doing his own thing.

 

[Nevermort]

Getting the Moth sacrament requires spending a Mareinette action on finishing the cooking of Spoiled next turn, plus hitting Moth 4 4/4 via studying.

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Mareinette is not actually locked into Spoiled action, despite what Grail Sacrament supporters want you to believe. Velvet can do Spoiled as her free social and there are other options for Moth Sacrament too that do not involve scaring Tiara.

Plan: Robo Doll Pasharka Go!
Cover bases (Fluttershy, Servants, Risen, Filthy Rich, Risen) +2 action
(wanted to use Rarity first but she actually have interesting money making actions)
DoA: Summon Forge Name
-Location: DoA room
-Have Silky help with Knock part of ritual as long as DoA does not consider it dangerous
(more Names for Silky faction! DoA (as well as Luna) are not interested in children, so good odds it would be little sister-shaped instead!! Bring Silky doll to life!!!)
DoA: Look for expedition sites near Ponyville
Luna: Look for 3 circle ritual sites
Luna: Assault rival: Rob Velvet Hill
-We always suspected that he was involved with shady staff, but now we have outright confirmation from Uncle. We can't close our eyes on it anymore. Time to start Royal Confiscations!
Luna: Dig the body for Risen
Rarity: Sell our lvl 1 artifacts in Auction house
-Ask if Mareinette and/or Cadance can join while they spend their time in Canterlot
Baldomare: SH sacrament
(If not I'd rather scry expedition under Royal Castle, pt. 3 or expedition for her book)
Biedde: Edge influence
Mareinette: Heart influence
(if people want to check on her Heart sacrament there is no time to delay it. If Red Church gives us another fragment we can reach lvl 4 during Next turn and see if it offers alternative way to befriend Mareinette. Or we can just send Mareinette on Auction action action instead of Rarity for more money. Or drop Cadance action, drop SH sacrament and take two Heart lessons in addition to influence. Then we have our lvl 4 Heart)
Velvet's Bureau action: Changeling expedition
Free social (Spoiled Rich)
Free Mansus (Red Church)-if we go for Heart
Velvet: Study Moth book (switch to study Lantern artifact after its done) x 2
Velvet: Soft action
Velvet: SH sacrament
Velvet: Cadance action
(Depend on what we have available. Can switch to something else in emergency)

 

[Greymere]

Mareinette is not actually locked into Spoiled action, despite what Grail Sacrament supporters want you to believe. Velvet can do Spoiled as her free social and there are other options for Moth Sacrament too that do not involve scaring Tiara.

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Wdym? Mareinette doing Spoiled's social for us has nothing to do with the Grail Sacrament.

Also, wow.

Using Selene on digging up a body. Selling artifacts which we haven't studied yet, which makes them unsellable iirc. Trying to explore the Red Church without Heart 4. Yeah, no, not voting for that.

 

[ses]

Also we were given a bye last time on making a Risen and immediately using it for Cover Your Bases, but QM said he didn't like it and would only allow it since it was halfway through the voting period at the time QM noticed it. Probably not something we're allowed to do again.

Leashing Filthy to take a 2nd Bases action and spending it on studying the Moth 3 artifact plus something else isn't totally out of the question though. It helps add 3 Moth to the Great Book Hunt. Expeditions are really designed to have a treasure trove of artifacts thrown at them more than teams of Names whose general bonuses dont stack. Also the extra flex slot that would be spent on a marginal study with the 2nd half of the study action means we can even more safely use our free Attention for Edge instead of Lantern for extra safety on the Tall Tale raid.

Not sure if it's worth using the Leash though. It's no emergency to justify it morally, plus having the leash in reserve for a crisis has saved our butts in the past.

Finally, Spoiled is currently only a normal Friend, not a Good Friend. Mareinette didn't take the "Worst option for everypony involved except for you" option, so she's only a normal Friend with the promise that confidante would be "easier". But it's still 2 social links up in one action, so I heavily doubt Velvet can do that in 1 action unless she rolls like a god, wheras Mareinette's +90 can handle that just fine.

 

[Nevermort]

Wdym? Mareinette doing Spoiled's social for us has nothing to do with the Grail Sacrament.

Also, wow.

Using Selene on digging up a body. Selling artifacts which we haven't studied yet, which makes them unsellable iirc. Trying to explore the Red Church without Heart 4. Yeah, no, not voting for that.

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Eh, Mareinette preparing Spoiled to be Mothed and then consumed for Grail Sacrament was idea that was floated recently. Even without such extremities Velvet not seriously interacting with Spoiled even once tell certain things about her mentality. Like had she even heard in character anything bad about Spoiled? For her she can as well be a random pony from street.

I am aware about thread risk aversion, although I would notice that odds for Ruined Church are not much worse than for Edge sacrament, and health damage lower. Plus I specifically mentioned a way to get Heart 4 this turn. If it still seems doable after we get the rest of info I'll make it a plan variant or something.

As for artifacts we are buying them 100 bits for lvl1 right? If they seem like interesting curious we probably can get at least half of its price. And I don't think that studying them would increase their price. Only Lore users knows how to use them and we would not know how to explain why they work to buyers or auction owners. Rarity can of course just do another comission, but I thought that it is more interesting option.

Also if digging body is issue Luna can just cover for Velvet herself althout it less efficient. If issue is spending Luna action then consider it as exchanging it for Velvet action. Rarity can do it too, but then we would lose on money.

Also we were given a bye last time on making a Risen and immediately using it for Cover Your Bases, but QM said he didn't like it and would only allow it since it was halfway through the voting period at the time QM noticed it. Probably not something we're allowed to do again.

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If so Luna can cover Velvet's base normally. Or Rarity money making can be sacrificed I guess.

Not sure if it's worth using the Leash though. It's no emergency to justify it morally, plus having the leash in reserve for a crisis has saved our butts in the past.

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I mean when the choice is between permanently gaslighting Filthy Rich via Mareinette and temporary via Leash more moral option should be obvious.

Finally, Spoiled is currently only a normal Friend, not a Good Friend. Mareinette didn't take the "Worst option for everypony involved except for you" option, so she's only a normal Friend with the promise that confidante would be "easier". But it's still 2 social links up in one action, so I heavily doubt Velvet can do that in 1 action unless she rolls like a god, wheras Mareinette's +90 can handle that just fine.

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We only need to rise Spoiled to a Good Friend. Leashing her next turn would immediately bring her into Sacrament range. QM allowed using Leash for it and to use it early in turn. And again Mareinette is permanent effect while Leash is not, although it may not matter much in Spoiled case.