Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

@OurLadyOfWires , does the whole "I See You My Enemy," thing for Worthy Opponents count as a Strange Feat, or would it fall under the combat prowess umbrella of no concerns?

Yes, this is exactly why I wanted to go to Tall Tale. So cool.

Close Range/Try to keep up feels fine to me. Combat is a messy space and getting a wound, even using AotLs, is just so annoying.

I'm not sure it's optimal, really, to go full send. Eclipse is likely to be annoying. But it will be so cool.

I feel that refuge in audacity where we take the point and and tell them to keep up is the best choice, learning Moth should minimize the already low chances of any veteran on front line leaking anything, and frankly, us going solo would be even more suspicious if anything

Honestly, I really want to go Take Point + Full Lore. That's a full turn's worth of focused Lore progression, and the faster we get the Bureau fully converted the faster we can get the benefits of actually having a cult, and not needing to worry about opsec for things like this in the future (or at least, in regards to things leaking because they don't yet know to not leak something).

Well, there are really two ways we can do this. Either we'll take point with only Bureau's Lores, or we'll go alone and use our Lores. Going for a mix of other options makes little sense to me.

Hmm, though choice.

I will just go for full lore development or full reward/risk. That is the whole reason we are here anyway.

Getting Moth teaching requires spending our chance at loot, getting Random teaching requires spending either infosec risk OR physical risk.

I really dont think that the physical risk is enough that it should stop us. The chance of us getting wounded is probably sub-10% even if we Go Solo, and practically nil if we Take Point. Respect the numbers we brought. This expedition was entirely soloable by Velvet even if we hadn't brought the Bureau this turn.

Lets take our baseline, zero-risk, zero-loot choice of "Take Point, No Lores". That already has no risks associated with it as there's basically no chance the assault fails even if we don't bring our personal Lores, and this choice has no physical risks, and no infosec risks. It gives no loot, but offers one Lore Teaching. So we trade our Velvet AP we spent for a Commissioner action later, and also accelerate our timetable for the bureau. That's a decent enough use of our Velvet AP, so lets take that as the baseline and then decide if the other options are more attractive than that.

Maximum Teaching, Take Point, Full Lores: This gives us two Lore teachings and accelerates the Bureau by a full turn. I dont think that 2 teachings is more than twice as good as one teaching, since the benefits get drip-fed as we go regardless so saying "a full turn" might be misleading by implying too much emphasis on a set completion bonus. This still has no loot, and introduces substantial infosec risk, but I think it's just plain better than the default zero risk plan. The chance of Eclipse catching a rumor of us isn't guaranteed and frankly an entire Lore Teaching is well worth it as a price. But that infosec risk IS a price, just because it's not as bad as a Lore Teaching is good doesn't mean that it's not just as much of a price as the mild physical danger and risk of having to cancel the duel. It's probably a bigger cost in expectation as the physical danger costs us in expectation of going solo.

Maximum Rewards, Go Solo, Full Lores: This preserves our ability to get loot, and has the same amount of lore teaching as the zero risk plan. The infosec risk is only mild, and straightforwardly trades "Loot for physical danger" compared to the zero risk plan. Same Lore teaching, the infosec risk difference isn't worth worrying about, so it's straightforwardly a trade of "danger for loot".

We freaking need loot guys. If there's like, a Moth 4 artifact in there to steal that's SO important! If there's a decent level 4 artifact in there that's a way bigger benefit to All In than the edge sacrament is (4 lore levels is four times as much as 1 lore level). Bits hell is real, and restrains everything we do. Bits let us send more expeditions with more Name overkill, Artifacts let us upgrade expeditions frankly almost as much as a 2nd Name does with no associate bits/ap cost.

It's not just about the raw bits value, we really have overlooked just how important artifacts are because we burned ourselves early on spending all our budget on level 3 artifacts very early game when we really couldn't afford it. But artifacts are important. They allow us to brute force expeditions with shitty minions instead of Names, they allow us to have a Name solo expeditions without sending half our team, they're just so great.

Going for the loot directly increases our chance of Name Befriendings happening on schedule. Artifacts are that important for expeditions. Level N artifacts basically translate directly to Level N of total lore levels for expeditions because it's not like our current artifact bench is full of duplicates or requires jockeying for all the empty lore slots in our Names' hands.

Velvet is currently rocking +69 personal combat, and +60 Lantern with the reroll still unused, as well as Level 4 Moth and Secret Histories with rerolls unused. And level 5 Knock reroll still usued. It is extremely unlikely from how the QM designs expeditions that Velvet will get into a combat encounter more dangerous than the guards at Crepuscule Jailbreak unless it's as punishment for failing a Moth/Knock/Lantern noncombat hurdle. And Velvet squishes that combat encounter like ants. We have our Edge realization making us immune to ambushes, our Moth realization giving us darkvision and all sorts of narrative benefits to her ability to evade danger and move unseen, as well as our Knock realization making locks ineffective against Velvet. This is not going to be a case of Velvet shouting "Leeroy Jenkins" and throwing herself facefirst into a -40 Outnumbered penalty. Give her a bit more respect than that. Our only weakness is Heart, and I really doubt we're going to need to roll Heart for an important hurdle to avoid fighting too many changelings at once. Every other lore we currently have our reroll available and level 4 or better Lore.

(Also because I screwed up our plan vote for the month we have an unspent book study that current voters really dont want to spend on the Knock 5 book because of Baldomare lifeline: getting the loot means we might steal a studyable for that slot)

ses said:

Lets take our baseline, zero-risk, zero-loot choice of "Take Point, No Lores". That already has no risks associated with it as there's basically no chance the assault fails even if we don't bring our personal Lores, and this choice has no physical risks, and no infosec risks. It gives no loot, but offers one Lore Teaching. So we trade our Velvet AP we spent for a Commissioner action later, and also accelerate our timetable for the bureau. That's a decent enough use of our Velvet AP, so lets take that as the baseline and then decide if the other options are more attractive than that.

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Getting a single extra Lore this turn doesn't speed up the Bureau time table at all. The only thing it does is free up a Commissioner action sometime during then. Getting both the free Moth Lore and the free random Lore from Taking Point + Full Lores is the only option that actually changes when the Bureau gets fully initiated into all the Lores, giving us an entire turn of progress.

Like, just to show the timetables:

Turn -- Base -- Take Point -- Take Point + Full Lore

EoT22 -- 3/9 -- 4/9 -- 5/9
EoT23 -- 5/9 -- 6/9 -- 7/9
EoT24 -- 7/9 -- 8/9 -- FIN
EoT25 -- FIN -- FIN -- N/a

Sure, this might change if we run into further chances to boost the Lores outside of of Commissioner + Director actions, but we can't really plan anything around that.

Greymere said:

Getting a single extra Lore this turn doesn't speed up the Bureau time table at all. The only thing it does is free up a Commissioner action sometime during then. Getting both the free Moth Lore and the free random Lore from Taking Point + Full Lores is the only option that actually changes when the Bureau gets fully initiated into all the Lores, giving us an entire turn of progress.

Like, just to show the timetables:

Turn -- Base -- Take Point -- Take Point + Full Lore

EoT22 -- 3/9 -- 4/9 -- 5/9
EoT23 -- 5/9 -- 6/9 -- 7/9
EoT24 -- 7/9 -- 8/9 -- FIN
EoT25 -- FIN -- FIN -- N/a

Sure, this might change if we run into further chances to boost the Lores outside of of Commissioner + Director actions, but we can't really plan anything around that.

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The entire point I was making is that I dont think there's a "set completion bonus" that we actually need to care about. We get the benefits of a cult drip-fed as we go. Accelerating by 1 lore is half as good as accelerating by 2 lores, and caring about whether we hit 9/9 at exactly a turn end isn't what we should care about. If the benefits of a cult are drip fed as we go then that means that 8/9 is 8/9ths as good as 9/9. Getting Lore teachings is good but I dont think we need to care specifically about getting 2 more than twice as much as getting 1.

ses said:

The entire point I was making is that I dont think there's a "set completion bonus" that we actually need to care about. We get the benefits of a cult drip-fed as we go. Accelerating by 1 lore is half as good as accelerating by 2 lores, and caring about whether we hit 9/9 at exactly a turn end isn't what we should care about. If the benefits of a cult are drip fed as we go then that means that 8/9 is 8/9ths as good as 9/9.

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The difference between 8/9 and 9/9 is, at the very least, that the entire Bureau has been converted into a Lore-using organization who is loyal to us/Luna over Celestia. But perhaps more relevant to right now, we don't know when we're getting our cult bonuses. The only vague hint we have is that Bird said "ask me again" re: cadres and rituals when we hit 5/9.

And, oh wow. Would you look at that? Take Point + Full Lore gets us to 5/9 Lores.

Greymere said:

The difference between 8/9 and 9/9 is, at the very least, that the entire Bureau has been converted into a Lore-using organization who is loyal to us/Luna over Celestia. But perhaps more relevant to right now, we don't know when we're getting our cult bonuses. The only vague hint we have is that Bird said "ask me again" re: cadres and rituals when we hit 5/9.

And, oh wow. Would you look at that? Take Point + Full Lore gets us to 5/9 Lores.

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I understand what you're saying, and it's a worthy consolation prize, but I really just dont think that it's worth both giving up the chance at loot AND the substantial infosec risks.

I kinda do want to go all in with full lores and maximum Velvet risk, just because it's fun to see her in her element, but I think you're a little
over-confident with combat. We'll be outnumbered certainly, get a few bad rolls and it's not hard to get wounded, and one wound makes winning against Biedde much less likely.

spiderhellian said:

I kinda do want to go all in with full lores and maximum Velvet risk, just because it's fun to see her in her element, but I think you're a little
over-confident with combat. We'll be outnumbered certainly, get a few bad rolls and it's not hard to get wounded, and one wound makes winning against Biedde much less likely.

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Biedde is only an 80% win chance anyway with a 20% chance of cratering us to one wound for zero payoff. It's really not the end of the world if we get unlucky anyway. Edge sacrament is +1 lore level. Getting a level 4 artifact is +4 lore levels to not just All In but every expedition we send minions on. Including the level 7 book expedition next turn. Do you really think there's no artifacts to get hold of?

Yes a wound is possible, but it's unlikely. It's really unlikely. We have less chance of getting wounded here than we have of losing the Biedde duel anyway. There's no possible way that we're facing a 20% wound chance. And the loot on offer may be unknown but we can't pass up the chance for artifacts or books or bits. This is the single most likely place in all of Equestria to find any heirlooms that the changelings managed to salvage from their original Hive from when they were exiled from the Mansus.

So, two things I wanted to say.

First of all, let me just remind everyone that if a character/monster rolls 100 in a combat roll, they wound the enemy combatant.
Just so people don't think Velvet is invincible. Blind luck is still accounted for in the mechanics.

Second, please don't assume there will necessarily be "rewards" in the proto-hive.
No, seriously.

Now, for me to get up to date.

Shaper47 said:

@OurLadyOfWires This kind of plot valid? I.e. Can we plant evidence at Tall Tale suggesting a planed Changeling attack on Celestia? Can Velvet borrow the Frangiclave from Axe for an expedition? Can Velvet summon an Ash-Ghoul using the gang members from the Visiting a Competitor expedition (i.e. narratively the action would happen straight after the expedition/defeated the gang members so they're not kept prisoner but used straight away).

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Selene asked you not to meddle with Celestia for now. So no.

Although I have it in my storyboard to have Selene contact you very soon about that.

Pittauro said:

actually... @OurLadyOfWires I don't suppose we could use Redemption of the Forge to remove the curse, or try to buy the services of a Curse-breaker?

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We can discuss looking for a curse-breaker (could even be a servant action) come next turn.

It's not completely out of the table, but to be honest it's just not an action I had considered.

You guys are so behind on artifact hoarding that I still am referring to my 2020 tables on artifact mechanics, back when my thought for cursed artifacts was just "tough luck lmao"

Pittauro said:

Probable cost for Baldomare would be 1 Baldomare AP, and to send Axe and a Risen (or alternatively 2 Mares in the Light). actually @OurLadyOfWires would Biedde count as 3 points too (out of 4 required)?

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No, Biedde counts for 1 point.

Other characters or summons count as 2 or 3 for reasons other than combat potential.

ses said:

Im a little confused @OurLadyOfWires it says we advanced a step with both ponies but Filthy was already a Close Friend? Is getting told "you need to fix his marraige" considered advancing a step even though we already knew it? Cause it'll be hard to justify an AP on sealing the deal with Filthy next turn with 3 Sacraments on the itinerary and we dont really understand what Moth sacrament will even do to Spoiled other than that she will refuse to talk to Velvet which makes coming up with a plan harder

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Jumping from close friend to confidante always needed a little extra. I always hoped (and I think this has been the case so far) that we would be able to personalize or make the confidante-leap a little more special. Especially given how you are going for a "tall" build rather than a "wide" base of followers (we even invented Cover Your Bases mechanics because of that).

So, Filthy has reached the point where he needs that extra nudge. We will discuss how that looks like later.

Pittauro said:

So he had Pride and Wings meet, and now we have a chance to meet Wings ourselves?

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Wha...? No, I...

(Checks notes)

That was... that was a dream. A dream of regrets and unfinished business... was... was that not obvious from the narrative?

That whole scene never happened. Or it did, but only in Steppes' head, with nopony other than sneaky Selene to witness it.

jason1stlegion said:

- Incidentally, as far as I can tell the limits on Lore use are only for the Bureau operation itself, not any sabotage / first-pick actions we attempt, which reduces the cost of giving up this option. @OurLadyOfWires could you confirm this?

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I honestly did not understand your question. Could you please rephrase it?

Talon Tiger Dino said:

@OurLadyOfWires , does the whole "I See You My Enemy," thing for Worthy Opponents count as a Strange Feat, or would it fall under the combat prowess umbrella of no concerns?

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Yes, that would be a strange feat.

You having unexpectedly high combat prowess will not be suspicious because you created a track record of that. But yes, if you find a Worthy Opponent (which would proc a quick vote) and if you vote to challenge it, then that would be a strange feat.

But it won't happen automatically if you pick the "just Edge" option, so don't worry about that outlier at this point of the planning stage.



I don't see any more pings. Please let me know if I am mistaken.

I hope you are all doing well.

I like to think sacraments have some added value beyond the +1 lore level. I admit the Silver Key is not pilling its weight here… yet. But I have faith!

All of this is a doozy. But I'm still in favor of taking point fueled by lores. Gotta get that Bureau up to truly usefull somehow.

OurLadyOfWires said:

First of all, let me just remind everyone that if a character/monster rolls 100 in a combat roll, they wound the enemy combatant.
Just so people don't think Velvet is invincible. Blind luck is still accounted for in the mechanics.

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I think everyone understands that nat 100s and nat 1s exist, don't worry. But that shouldn't distract us from arguing over risks from a more grounded perspective of the actual most likely numbers.

OurLadyOfWires said:

This is just me being a QM and reminding you all that the way to get a loot vault is to search for a loot vault. And not use a full action point to jump into a half-commissioner-action and expect to get Bureau Progression, Cult Teachings, and Awesome Loot at the same time.

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We did have a legal expedition that we could have chosen to take to treat Tall Tale as a vault and send Axe over to it.

You could sneak in there, to either strike at the changelings yourself, steal from them, or maybe even PLANT something you would like your constables to find later. But unfortunately, this endeavor will not be without dangers.

(NOTE: This expedition will DISAPPEAR if the Lunar Bureau raids it before you do. But an expedition sent here will arrive before the Bureau raids it, if both actions are taken on the same turn.)

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We did do it in a slightly weirder way than that because of having max Bureau loyalty, but choosing to go solo sounds very similar to this. Like I understand what you're trying to say, and I understand that there might be nothing important. I hereby do solemnly swear that I will take the lick and not complain if there's nothing, but I do think it's fair for us to rationally make guesses based on the text to conclude that it's probably net positive and argue that we should go for it because there's a good chance of stuff to find. Making decisions based on incomplete information is the name of the game.

spiderhellian said:

I like to think sacraments have some added value beyond the +1 lore level. I admit the Silver Key is not pilling its weight here… yet. But I have faith!

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I'm not saying it's not important. I'm saying that Velvet realistically has, what, a 10% chance of getting wounded? Maybe 15%? And even if that happens and we're forced to delay the duel... we miss out on 80% of a sacrament, not a full sacrament because we might have failed the duel anyway. And we can reassign the AP to studying the Moth 3 artifact and probably some cool artifact we find as loot (not guaranteed but I think we can agree that it's a good chance of happening). So that means, what, in total multiplying the probabilities that there's like an 8% chance that we lose out on challenging Biedde AND we would have won if we had tried it, re-assign the AP to something else worthwhile, even more studying or teaching Rarity, and like a 2% chance we accidentally save ourselves from a destined loss of an AP and month of recovery from getting our ass kicked? Those are at the end of the day all small probabilities. We need to compare to the chance that we find stuff that meaningfully helps us get the Level 7 book or otherwise meaningfully helps us, which I think is a lot more than 10%.

OurLadyOfWires said:

You guys are so behind on artifact hoarding that I still am referring to my 2020 tables on artifact mechanics, back when my thought for cursed artifacts was just "tough luck lmao"

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@spiderhellian I kind of want this line from the QM up in 50 foot flaming letters as my argument for why we should not pass up on the chance at loot. No it's not guaranteed but I think it's fair for us to consider reasoning under uncertainty that it's better than even chances and much more salient than the 10-15% chance of wounds.

OurLadyOfWires said:

This is just me being a QM and reminding you all that the way to get a loot vault is to search for a loot vault. And not use a full action point to jump into a half-commissioner-action and expect to get Bureau Progression, Cult Teachings, and Awesome Loot at the same time.

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I will take that to mean we could have gotten the first two if we were willing to get our hoofs dirty this turn. Like last time.

OurLadyOfWires said:

Although I have it in my storyboard to have Selene contact you very soon about that.

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Ooooohh, now that is a good spoiler.

OurLadyOfWires said:

We can discuss looking for a curse-breaker (could even be a servant action) come next turn.

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Already expected that answer. But I dread how much it will cost(Bits).

OurLadyOfWires said:

Or it did, but only in Steppes' head, with nopony other than sneaky Selene to witness it.

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You know, it is times like these that remind me Selene must be really good at keeping secrets(Moth aside) considering her job involves a great deal of "watching" private property(in this case, minds).

OurLadyOfWires said:

Especially given how you are going for a "tall" build rather than a "wide" base of followers (we even invented Cover Your Bases mechanics because of that).

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Now I'm wondering if we could have put the Wolf Cult to cover our bases with the Servants.

In the light of the Proto-hive not necessicarily having useful loot, I think "I will take point" is one of the better actions we can take due to spreading Moth in the Bureau for free (and spreading lores is one of the most valuable things we can do with them at the moment, in my opinion).

OurLadyOfWires said:

Yes, that would be a strange feat.

You having unexpectedly high combat prowess will not be suspicious because you created a track record of that. But yes, if you find a Worthy Opponent (which would proc a quick vote) and if you vote to challenge it, then that would be a strange feat.

But it won't happen automatically if you pick the "just Edge" option, so don't worry about that outlier at this point of the planning stage.

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@OurLadyOfWires I have to admit, I find it a little odd that challenging a Worthy Opponent to a one-on-one duel would be considered a strange feat, but Velvet just going off into the hive all on her lonesome and coming out the other end alive and probably unharmed wouldn't be at least equally strange.

Greymere said:

@OurLadyOfWires I have to admit, I find it a little odd that challenging a Worthy Opponent to a one-on-one duel would be considered a strange feat, but Velvet just going off into the hive all on her lonesome and coming out the other end alive and probably unharmed wouldn't be at least equally strange.

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It's a bit of a compromise. But hear me out.

I try to veer into realism as much as possible, given that half the setting is literally a cartoon. And sometimes, I find myself trying to expose more CS-based elements because (very understandably) many of our votes take us towards more MLP-centric elements.

So yes, you make a great point. And I mean it sincerely.

But I also have to remind myself that this quest is half MLP. So, I can see how certain "heroic" ponies are permissible for regular onlookers. The Mane 6 frequently fought huge scary monsters (with eyewitnesses present) and if you think about it they were "just six regular women ponies".

So, from a realistic perspective, is it a stretch to say Velvet can go "I'll be in there, lmao, don't mind the screams" and not have that count as a mechanical point of suspicion. Yes, it's a bit of a stretch. But I am willing to let MLP culture take over for that.

But here's why I carve out the Edge Worthy Opponent. If you do that, then you have the added "everypony present knew in their gut that they could not interfere with that combat, and that something strange and otherwordly is going on".

I hope that makes sense. Or at least that's where my thoughts are taking me so far.