Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Nevermort]

Then the Prudent and Responsible thing to do is have 6 AP on DoA's Sacrament not a measly 4 AP.

FR and Selene should come after the Sacraments actions not before.

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It depends on two factors. First if teaching Selene is more important than DoA or not. Because it may affect dealing with Celestia which is on timer. And while we can rush All in Expedition to be ahead of Celestia ire much better would be to resolve Daybreaker issue first.
And surely fillyfing and adopting Celestia is true secret ending , not this Glory nonsense

And for Forge Redemption it depend on what you think probability of getting injured during DoA and sacrament search is. Because if we get one injure we likely will pull off from the search and FR allows us to tank two injures.

 

[Shaper47]

First if teaching Selene is more important than DoA or not. Because it may affect dealing with Celestia which is on timer. And while we can rush All in Expedition to be ahead of Celestia ire much better would be to resolve Daybreaker issue first.

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Thinking Selene is going to solve Daybreaker in time is very optimistic at best.

Not very solid reasoning to go for.

She can also be trained anytime in comparison to the Sacraments that are time sensitive.

Yes it's better to train her this turn but only if we have the leftover actions after our Sacraments to do so.

And for Forge Redemption it depend on what you think probability of getting injured during DoA and sacrament search is. Because if we get one injure we likely will pull off from the search and FR allows us to tank two injures.

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DoA basically said it's going to be paid in time not blood.

So it's not really a probability at all.

 

[Nevermort]

Thinking Selene is going to solve Daybreaker in time is very optimistic at best.

Not very solid reasoning to go for.

She can also be trained anytime in comparison to the Sacraments that are time sensitive.

Yes it's better to train her this turn but only if we have the leftover actions after our Sacraments to do so.

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And I think that doing All In expedition at all is mistake at least without dealing with Celestia first.
Sure you can go and attempt Discord heist right under Celestia nose but one bad roll would immediately doom us. Triggering security alarm and having angry Celestia teleport on top of you, failing Discord ritual and freeing him and many many other ways.
Much safer would be to have Celestia just open doors to you, or neutralizing her first. It is entirely possible that All In expedition completes itself if we resolve Daybreaker and we have only Discord ritual left to prepare.

It is not like we lack means to neutralize Celestia either.

Introduce Eclipse and through them Celestia to Grail Lore. She can't obliterate us if she is too drunk to stand.

Wait until Celestia goes Daybreaker, then use elements on her (would force us to interact with Twilight which is bonus).

Trick Daybreaker into killing Discord. She would be much easier to agree to kill him than Celestia, we just need to come up with a reason for Velvet to participate in ritual. Right now Luna invested in doing it on her own but if she can't make it we can just tell her to play as Nightmare Moon for a bit, tell Daybreaker that they should rule ponykind together with iron hoof, then order her Bureau to develop means of killing Discord. And so on.

 

[Shaper47]

Sure you can go and attempt Discord heist right under Celestia nose but one bad roll would immediately doom us. Triggering security alarm and having angry Celestia teleport on top of you, failing Discord ritual and freeing him and many many other ways.

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All In is not a trap option.

There's no such thing as security alarms and the prison is almost certainly teleport restricted.

Introduce Eclipse and through them Celestia to Grail Lore. She can't obliterate us if she is too drunk to stand.

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???

That's not how Grail works.

Wait until Celestia goes Daybreaker, then use elements on her (would force us to interact with Twilight which is bonus).

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IC Velvet knows nothing of this and would have no reason to even look.

Even then it wouldn't work for obvious reasons.

Trick Daybreaker into killing Discord. She would be much easier to agree to kill him than Celestia, we just need to come up with a reason for Velvet to participate in ritual.

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You do remember that Lore reveal is a game over right?

Because that's just plain suicide.

 

[Greymere]

I wonder if, if necessary, Selene could bait her into Luna Chase Part 2 (now with less Nat100s). Daybreaker seems even more monomaniacal than Celestia was during the search.

Edit: Hey guys! Absolutely terrible idea, but what do you think would happen if we went into Celestia's dream door

 

[Shaper47]

I wonder if, if necessary, Selene could bait her into Luna Chase Part 2 (now with less Nat100s). Daybreaker seems even more monomaniacal than Celestia was during the search.

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Well the first Luna Chase was heavily implied to be going to cause a lot of damage if that Nat100 wasn't a thing.

And Celestia Daybreaker care a lot less about collateral damage this time.

I'm not really seeing the need for our daughter to cause mass destruction and a few charred mountains of pony corpses.

 

[Nevermort]

All In is not a trap option.


There's no such thing as security alarms and the prison is almost certainly teleport restricted.

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All in is a name that implies that it is our last gambit. Either we success or we are dead. Celestia is too close not to run there on her own if she have not made teleport bypass for herself. And I don't know from were comes your idea of lack of security alarms in equestria.

???

That's not how Grail works.

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I mean it is how you get into Mansus via Grail. And how Grail works depends on who teaches it. Subvert Eclipse via grailing Midday Dew first, then work on Celestia when we turn Midday into confidant or even minion. Can even enlist Mareinette to guarantee necessary results if time is too tight.

IC Velvet knows nothing of this and would have no reason to even look.


Even then it wouldn't work for obvious reasons.

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???
She knows about elements and that they worked against Luna and against Discord.

You do remember that Lore reveal is a game over right?


Because that's just plain suicide.

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Lore reveal by us, not by Luna. Just give Velvet enough time to plausibly learn lores under Luna tutelage after she reveals herself. Main issue is that Luna stated that she would not reveal herself and would work through dreams first, but if she can't do it as you assume, then there is no reasons not to attempt other things too when it becomes clear.

 

[DelightedOne]

Edit: Hey guys! Absolutely terrible idea, but what do you think would happen if we went into Celestia's dream door

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"DREAMING SUN BEAM!!!!!!"

And we would be arrested in the Wake because we are not Luna so we couldn't have a way of walking into ponies dreams, meaning unknown power that now Celestia knows exists and that Velvet did not mention to her.

 

[Nevermort]

"DREAMING SUN BEAM!!!!!!"

And we would be arrested in the Wake because we are not Luna so we couldn't have a way of walking into ponies dreams, meaning unknown power that now Celestia knows exists and that Velvet did not mention to her.

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Moth sacrament may help if it would allow us to pose as someone else even in dream. Then we just need to combine power with Luna to create a nightmare were Daybreaker was a bad mare and was send back into kindergarten.
Have Mareinette eat Daybreaker if no better method presents itself. I mean Daybreaker was born very recently...

 

[Shaper47]

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)
-[X] (AotL) Lantern (Explore Summit)
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] FO Family
-[X] (Social) FO Friends
-[X] DoA Sacrament x6

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes
-[X] (AotL) Secret Histories (Ashen Wastes)
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Ashen Wastes
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] FO Family
-[X] (Social) FO Friends
-[X] DoA Sacrament x6

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Summit
-[X] (AotL) Secret Histories (Explore Summit)
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] FO Family
-[X] (Social) FO Friends
-[X] DoA Sacrament x6

[X] PLan All on Snake
-[X] (AotL) Grail
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] [MANSUS] Tarrying in the Wastes (Search for a new area)
-[X] (Free) Summon a Risen
-[X] (Social) FO Family
-[X] FO Friends
-[X] DOA Sacrament x6

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes and SH Sacrament
-[X] (AotL) Secret Histories (Ashen Wastes)
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Ashen Wastes
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] FO Family
-[X] (Social) FO Friends
-[X] personal SH Sacrament
-[X] DoA Sacrament x5

[X] Plan Taking a Chance
-[X] (AotL) Lantern
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] FO Family
-[X] (Social) FO Friends
-[X] Personal SH Sacrament x2
-[X] DOA Sacrament x4

[X] Plan Living on the line
-[X] (AotL) Grail
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] [MANSUS] Tarrying in the Wastes (Search for a new area)
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] (Social) FO Family
-[X] FO Friends
-[X] Personal SH Sacrament x2
-[X] DOA Sacrament x4

 

[Greymere]

Right, so. Twelve hours have definitely passed by now, and you all know what that means. Time to pull out those knives!

[X] Plan Responsible KISSing
-[X] (AotL) Lantern
-[X] (Forge) Reserve for after DoA's Sacrament resolves
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[X] (Social) Teach Selene
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[X] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (5x)

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing
-[X] (AotL) Lantern
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[X] (Social) Teach Selene
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[X] Perform the Forge's Redemption
--[X] Sacrifice Forge 3 reagent
--[X] At Jade's old house
-[X] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (4x)

Edit: Approval votes here
[X] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent
[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)

Bcuz even though it doesn't have teaching Selene, there will probably be room for it with nearly all AP going to the Sacrament and I would be very surprised if we don't have at least 1 leftover AP.

 

[Nevermort]

[] Plan Grail opportunity
-[] (AotL) Grail
-[] (Forge) Reserve for after DoA's Sacrament resolves
-[] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[] (Social) Teach Selene
-[] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (5x)

 

[Pittauro]

Celestia has gotten basic lore knowledge, and the path into the mansus sorted. Those are the only requirement for anyone to get unlimited lore knowledge, espically easy to get Lateran where an unlimited source exists right in the Blank planes. Celestia if she put all her actions into it could be Lateran 4 in just 2 turns.

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2 turns is just a bit too much I think.

Presumably Celestia is using simplified mechanics. Something along the lines of "each turn she rolls with a slowly increasing DC to go +1 on Lantern".

which is why I'm assuming the worst case (for us) is that she gets a level per turn.

...and, MAYBE, 2 levels on a nat100? Though possibly not even that.

I'm also looking at all of our followers, including Selene, and NONE of them was able to go +2 levels in the same lore in one turn.

Velvet TECHNICALLY could have, if she had enough sources of scraps, but it wouldn't be easy.

in any case, I keep to my "Worst case timetable"

Turn 21 end: Lantern 2
Turn 22 end: Lantern 3
Turn 23 end: Lantern 4 (so we probably want the Moth Sacrament planned for here at the latest)
Turn 24 end: Lantern 5 (So we probably want "All In" and maybe a plan from Selene to deal with her in case the quest continues or Velvet stays in the Wake and this affects the epilogue)

@OurLadyOfWires It's your call.

But I would object to calling the reroll minute.

Whatever the DC is, there's roughly a 25% difference in the probability of success. That's a 1 in 4 chance that we fail when the reroll would have saved it. And face whatever consequences come of failing a dangerous action.

That's not minute.

It's fair to want us to damn the dangers. But the reroll is not some small optimization. It's one of the precisely two things we can do to improve our odds at a difficult, dangerous, action, and it makes a meaningful difference.

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the other being the influence, I imagine?

Rerolls and "up to +40" are the best ways we have to improve a roll's chance of success.

oh, and technically high level reagents for Rituals only, basically replacing the influence as a way to make things better.

Saw Pittauro (the site won't let me @ them) talk about this once, but I wonder if things will kick off with Rarity because of this… It might be a bit "dangerous" to be in the same room as her this month.

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you know, I wasn't thinking of that

Pretty sure they are referring to the Ruined Church's stairs. The ones that stole a Health and a Heart Scrap. Stupid Church.

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I was more thinking of the Wolf eternally rolling down the Ascent of Knives.

For people wanting to put 5 or 6 actions into DoA. What if DoA is a increasing DC action like SH sacrament? Perhaps we will complete step 1 or step 2 but if we don't have necessary influence would not we just waste leftover actions by trying to pass some really high DC ? I mean if there is no chance I guess Bird would allow us to stop, but I am not so sure for actions with at least some chance of success.

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And on another note, while I COULD in an emergency give up Forge ritual or Selene lesson, Friends and Family FOs are basically mandatory.

So if it ended up being between "finish Axe Sacrament now" and "do the FOs", I'd pick the second. JADE (and maybe Cadance) is probably extremely depressed, and our family was super worried too.

[] Plan Prudent KISSing
-[] (AotL) Lantern
-[] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[] (Social) Teach Selene
-[] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[] Perform the Forge's Redemption
--[] Sacrifice Forge 3 reagent
--[] At Jade's old house
-[] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (4x)

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I like this, but I'll go ahead and post an even MORE prudent version

[x] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent
-[x] (AotL) Lantern
-[x] (Forge) Forge 4 reagent
-[x] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[x] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[x] (Social) Teach Selene
-[x] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[x] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[x] Perform the Forge's Redemption
--[x] Sacrifice Forge 4 reagent
--[x] At Jade's old house
-[x] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (4x)

Only difference is we use a lvl 4 reagent (for an extra 35 bits over the lvl 3), to reduce the failure chance of the ritual by more or less another 2.5%.

Yes, chance was already around 97.5%, but failing HERE is NOT an option!

Then the Prudent and Responsible thing to do is have 6 AP on DoA's Sacrament not a measly 4 AP.

FR and Selene should come after the Sacraments actions not before.

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not really, because then you're risking not devoting any time to friends and family at all in the worst cases, so it's not prudent OR responsible.

 

[Greymere]

I like this, but I'll go ahead and post an even MORE prudent version

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You might want to adjust the number on the sacrifice to go with that different Forge reagent

 

[DelightedOne]

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent

 

[Nevermort]

I like this, but I'll go ahead and post an even MORE prudent version

[x] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent
-[x] (AotL) Lantern
-[x] (Forge) Forge 4 reagent
-[x] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[x] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[x] (Social) Teach Selene
-[x] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[x] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[x] Perform the Forge's Redemption
--[x] Sacrifice Forge 3 reagent
--[x] At Jade's old house
-[x] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (4x)

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You probably should change FR action to sacrifice forge 4 reagent then, and are you sure that Lantern AoTL would be useful with just 4 Foggy Mirror actions?

 

[Shaper47]

not really, because then you're risking not devoting any time to friends and family at all in the worst cases, so it's not prudent OR responsible.

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I said 6 AP on DoA's Sacrament not 7. So I don't understand at all where you're pulling this stuff from.

 

[Pittauro]

I said 6 AP on DoA's Sacrament not 7. So I don't understand at all where you're pulling this stuff from.

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oh, my bad then, I missed that part.

 

[Bakkasama]

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing

I mentioned it before, but I am tired of delaying FR. I am not voting for a plan without it.

Since I also rather explore the summit to the wastes, this plan it is.

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing with some Grail

 

[DelightedOne]

Uh, you all remember how DoA has this trait?

[UNINTERESTED]: Will refuse any gifts to stay in the Wake (however, her cooldown for re-summoning is a single full month)

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And we thought that meant she just didn't want to stay in the Wake for more than three months at a time, but then we learned about her curse and suddenly everything made sense?


Could the same thing apply to Baldomare and her Noncombatant trait?

[NONCOMBATANT]: Baldomare refuses to engage in any sort of fighting, and has adjusted her health to reflect that. "I barely ever wear a body! So why would I want to feel pain on the rare occasions I do?"

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Now we know she is wounded it makes a lot more sense for her to only have 2 Health when the other Names have at least 5.

 

[Alan975]

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)


[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes


[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Summit


[X] PLan All on Snake


[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes and SH Sacrament


[X] Plan Taking a Chance


[X] Plan Living on the line

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing

[X] Plan French KISSing

[X] Plan Elopement

 

[Nevermort]

I think Grail AoTL would be more useful this turn.

We have meeting with Midday Dew. There is almost certainly DC that allows us to jump straight to close friends even if it may be very hard to reach.

We have to deal with Manuscripts in Bureau this turn, even if it does not take actions from us, some dice rolling there is possibility.

We have meeting with Rarity and Cadence. Only QM will know if there is some bonus rewards from high roll on friends FO action.

Lantern AoTL on the other hoof is here only to compete with SH sacrament for leftover actions which is fine I guess, but something not guaranteed to work.

If FR is deal breaker I guess can also propose FR plan with Grail AoTL.

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing with some Grail
-[X] (AotL) Grail
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[X] (Social) Teach Selene
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[X] Perform the Forge's Redemption
--[X] Sacrifice Forge 3 reagent
--[X] At Jade's old house
-[X] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (4x)


[X] Plan Grail opportunity
-[X] (AotL) Grail
-[X] (Forge) Reserve for after DoA's Sacrament resolves
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Invoke a Risen
-[X] (Social) Teach Selene
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Family
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
-[X] Sacrament: Through the Foggy Mirror (5x)

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing
[X] Plan Prudent KISSing but even moreprudent

 

[Maer]

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes


[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Summit

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent

 

[Arrkhon]

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes

 

[Solace2117]

[X] Plan Taking a Chance
-[X] (AotL) Lantern
-[X] (Forge) Forge 3 reagent
-[X] (Knock) Explore the Summit
-[X] (Winter) Summon a Risen
-[X] FO Family
-[X] (Social) FO Friends
-[X] Personal SH Sacrament x2
-[X] DOA Sacrament x4

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)

Don't mind the Prudent variants, but eh, kind of like the simplicity of the original KISS plan.

 

[Pittauro]

Uh, you all remember how DoA has this trait?

And we thought that meant she just didn't want to stay in the Wake for more than three months at a time, but then we learned about her curse and suddenly everything made sense?


Could the same thing apply to Baldomare and her Noncombatant trait?

Now we know she is wounded it makes a lot more sense for her to only have 2 Health when the other Names have at least 5.

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oh, I actually was wondering the same.

 

[MisRAR1]

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Summit

[X] PLan All on Snake

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid) + Wastes and SH Sacrament

 

[Sveta08]

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent


I am very busy this weekend, but these seem to closely align with what I'm hoping.

 

[Limabot]

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)

[X] Plan Prudent KISSing

[x] Plan Prudent KISSing but even more prudent

[X] Plan Responsible KISSing

I may add more later, but these look good for now.
EDIT: Added in one additional plan I wanted.

 

[spiderhellian]

Man how many things can we add to keeping it simple before it's not keeping it simple anymore

[X] Plan KISS (Keep it Snake, Stupid)

the other being the influence, I imagine?

Rerolls and "up to +40" are the best ways we have to improve a roll's chance of success.

oh, and technically high level reagents for Rituals only, basically replacing the influence as a way to make things better.

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I'm just talking about the SH Sacrement action. Which is harder than almost anything we've seen, which is explicitly DANGEROUS, where we have precisely two ways of boosting our chances (influence and reroll) and nothing else makes a difference.

Turn 24 end: Lantern 5 (So we probably want "All In" and maybe a plan from Selene to deal with her in case the quest continues or Velvet stays in the Wake and this affects the epilogue)

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Yeah. All the wishing about Luna handling Daybreaker and having time to do all sorts of things…

We just got an in text reminder from the QM that is definitely not the case.