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Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

Seriously. I'm saying this as one of the people who is most anal retentive about risk chances and considering how to maximize roll bonuses, but holy shitfuck on a Jesus cracker, we are so goddamn privileged about rituals. Copper has to actually kill her own people just to have about similar chances to Velvet on most things IIRC, not counting rerolls. And here we are quibbling over how to boost things even more.

I'm not saying stop or anything, but man it's nice to occasionally step back and realize 60% odds for a Name isn't even that bad. Not for being completely unassisted.
 
I'm not saying stop or anything, but man it's nice to occasionally step back and realize 60% odds for a Name isn't even that bad. Not for being completely unassisted.
I am okay with investing to get solid odds on summoning a Name, but it definitely seems misguided to not risk great odds on a scry!
 
I am okay with investing to get solid odds on summoning a Name, but it definitely seems misguided to not risk great odds on a scry!
Given that Mare's in the Light have Lantern 5 if we want to scry something their the ones that should be doing the ritual if Baldamare is busy with something.
 
I am okay with investing to get solid odds on summoning a Name, but it definitely seems misguided to not risk great odds on a scry!
Oh, scries are the worst. Jade managed to pull on off before without any reagents, and while it's definitely annoying if she's fails, there's also, like, three other options being done that could get us the same thing she's looking for? Canterlot expedition, the Church expedition, even the Frangiclave expedition has a decent chance of giving decent leveled books. Jade's scry is just one contingent among many, really.
 
[X] Plan A Better Beckoning of Biedde
-[X] (AotL) Edge
-[X] (Forge) Edge 3, Edge 2 (-1 AP)
-[X] (Steppes) Ask about any rumors and general perceptions of us, Fair Trial, and our respective institutions, among both nobles and the commonfolk.
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] Summon Biedde
--[X] Sacrifice Edge 3 and Edge 2 reagents
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Explore the Mansus
--[X] Find a new location in the Ashen Wastes
--[X] Explore the depths of the Ruined Church

[X] Plan Wake and Dream
-[X] (AotL) Edge
-[X] (Steppes) Ask about any rumors and general perceptions of us, Fair Trial, and our respective institutions, among both nobles and the commonfolk.
-[X] (Forge) SH2, for Jade's RotT
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Search Canterlot for the Outsider (Progress: 0/200)
-[X] Explore the Mansus
--[X] Find a new location in the Ashen Wastes
--[X] Explore the depths of the Ruined Church

[X] Plan Mapping the Wastes
-[X] (AotL) Edge
-[X] (Steppes) Ask about any rumors and general perceptions of us, Fair Trial, and our respective institutions, among both nobles and the commonfolk.
-[X] (Forge) SH2, for Jade's RotT
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Explore the Mansus (x2)
--[X] Find a new location in the Ashen Wastes (3x)
--[X] Explore the depths of the Ruined Church
--[X] Any overflow from exploring the Ashen Wastes should go to finding a new location in the Shattered Stairways
 
[X] Plan A Better Beckoning of Biedde
[X] Plan A Cheaper Beckoning of Biedde
[X] Plan A Cheaper Beckoning of Biedde (no hubris)

Seems functional, and I wanna see the ball at least start rolling on calling Biedde.
 
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[X] Plan Mapping the Wastes
-[X] (AotL) Grail
-[X] (Steppes) Ask about any rumors and general perceptions of us, Fair Trial, and our respective institutions, among both nobles and the commonfolk.
-[X] (Forge) SH2, for Jade's RotT
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] Summon a Mare-in-the-Light
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Explore the Mansus (x2)
--[X] Find a new location in the Ashen Wastes (3x)
--[X] Explore the depths of the Ruined Church
--[X] Any overflow from exploring the Ashen Wastes should go to finding a new location in the Shattered Stairways
For what matters, this plan has my approval.

if I make my own, the only change I MIGHT make is giving up a mansus exploration to either Teach Rarity or maaaaaaaybe social Filthy Rich, but I'm starting to lean mansus more.

"Bird, when is Selene going to talk to her other sister, Soft Sweeps?"
"Bird, when are we learning about Ash?"
"Bird, it couldn't possibly be that those two things are related, could it?"

:V
Bird, you are truly worthy of your QQ nickname.

No rerolls used on DoA. Knock was a tiny bit clutch, but passing a roll by a little is still passing.
Nice. we PROBABLY won't need it, but Knock is used fairly often in the Mansus so there's a chance it's used there, especially if we do double exploration.

You can't tell for sure, really. Unironically speaking, an Edge AotL might be useful.
You know, I was actually considering it. A "Verbal attack".

If he tries a "why did you betray the master" or "why did you do X", Edge might help countering with a "Why did YOU leave the cult for Fluttershy".


...I'm quite seriously leaning towards Edge AotL instead of Grail.

Grails is persuasion through being liked... but Comet doesn't like us.

He can still respect us though, and Edge would help with that more I think. Especially if we take a confrontational tone over a conciliatory one.

All that matters is that Rarity will let you know if she definitely needs to succeed her roll during a turn. Just how like Jade tells you if she needs some time off.

Well, they might not tell you directly, but I will. So those fine details really aren't on Velvet's radar right now.
Nice to hear a definitive confirmation you'll warn us of those two things. It means we can take more risks on making use of their actions.

and that we'll KNOW if "taking a commission" is absolutely not a valid option. there's a non-zero chance we might want to take another commission next turn or the turn after, depending on Frangiclave expedition cost, for example.

About this. Let me dispel a misunderstanding that I think has been building up for a while.

Having a Sacrament doesn't mean you can teach other ponies Sacraments.

The requirements for teaching a Sacrament is literally a skill called "One who is very great".

Attaining a Sacrament doesn't make you a Very Great creature, the same way that graduating from school doesn't make you a professor.

So, unfortunately, perish the thought of having one character reach a Sacrament and then "spreading it around".

...I'm now wondering if "One Who Is Very Great" is basically a trait granted from being at Lore 6.

how does teaching a follower to 5 work, then? Do we bring them to 4 4/4, and then our Names give the final push? Or do we bring them there, and then they get to try for their own personal sacraments?

ok, THAT ONE is perfect!

I can't wait for our dead dad to find out!

And STEPPES. he'll probably risk dying of laughter!


Sure. I'd appreciate a little more specificity on your wording, though, just so Steppes understands what you are asking.

And as always, he might be too busy to answer. But you can write to him whatever you want.
to be fair he'd likely want to answer even if he's busy.

We're no longer JUST his niece, after all. We're now in the top 5 of the most important ponies in the country.

Just behind Princess Celestia, Princess Cadance, and somewhere around the same level as Fair Trial, the near-unknown Midday Dew, and maybe Shining Armor.

so it's not just a family obligation, it's just important for the VELVET FAMILY to keep us happy and close.

Especially considering we make no mistery of how little we care for our sperm donor formerly known as "father"

Well that isn't ominous at all.

Are you guys sure we want to confront Comet?
It's not really THAT ominous. Edge is Comet's nature.

talking with him is basically a verbal spar. If you don't "attack" verbally, you just come off as weak. and he cares enough about Fluttershy's opinion that I don't think he'd outright attack us PHYSICALLY over words unless we outright threaten him or more importantly Fluttershy.

So yeah, I'm leaning going AotL Edge, and when we go talk to him we "stand up to him" during the conversation.

We basically go "We found out about the Master in Shining. They're now dead. I understand why you did it, but I NEED you to tell me if there's any other secret that might come back to bite him,because THE MASTER NEARLY RAPED A DEAR FRIEND OF MINE AND I WON'T STAND FOR ANY OTHER SECRET YOU'RE KEEPING HARMING ME AND MINE".

and if he tries some variation of "and what if I don't" we go "Don't make me threaten you, Comet. I killed a Name because they threatened me and mine. I don't have anything against you, but I can't allow your secrets to put people I care about at risk. You'd do the same for FLuttershy. You DID the same for Fluttershy. please, for BOTH of our sakes, meet me halfway."

Oh, and a small comment. I haven't checked all the plans yet, but this was right in front of me as I typed my last post.

So, there is absolutely nothing wrong with your plan, and this is fine. I just want to make sure you all remember that exploring the Red Church is a Mansus Expedition.

They only cost one Mansus-exploration action, and it's perfectly placed in this plan. But it's still one of those "dangerous, dark, scary" things that involve Velvet going somewhere, uh, complicated.

Again, no problem at all doing it. Just wanted to point out this isn't a regular "walk around the Blank Plains and find a garden".
I'm assuming our "All-4-but-Heart" makes it an acceptable level of risk. We've been overleveled basically for all of our mansus experiences, after all.



Random thought, but...

@OurLadyOfWires ,could we actually... offer a job to Comet?

A real job, I mean, to guard our house, and have him payed like all of our stuff?

We could even bring it up to our brother (considering Ponyville finances are up to him), that we know a strong pegasus stallion that would make for a good guardspony/security guard.

if nothing else he could use the bits to buy Fluttershy gifts :V

Let's absolutely do this, if we're confronting comet.


Hmmm. Then I really think any action that does this should also read the Forge books, because we're likely to get Forge scraps and then the books are useless.
agreed on both, but to be fair I think every plan has the three books study action.

Just gonna note, but, uh… while I'm pretty convinced that talking to Comet could end in violence, rolling up on him with a Name granted max Edge Influence probably makes that an absolute certainty. Because that's kinda a sign that Velvet is actively expecting a fight.

In the other hand, I totally wanna see her throw down a +90 check if he tries to pull something and want to see Biedde besides, so I'm not gonna complain.
well, maybe not violence because Velvet with an edge 4 influence could break Comet in two like a kit kat bar, but it's definitely overkill.

AotL is more... subtle. it's the world whispering advice in your ears, nudging you towards the most effective course of action. in a conversation with Comet, it would be Velvet not bowing down to a dominance display and countering with cutting words

an Edge Influence is the world's laws changing to make the lore more relevant. It's going to Comet with the world acknowledging that our talk is a fight, and we're there to win, and are armed with the equivalent of a nuke when we're going for a swordfight.

It's MASSIVELY overkill. And he'll KNOW it.

Honestly, he'll probably just be testing Velvet for strength or something, or maybe attack before she can properly explain. Either way, there's gonna be some violence.
I'm up for it.

Both Velvet and Comet care about Fluttershy. I don't think they'll go too far with this.

Comet also seems to care about Stormchaser.

This would be more of the trope of "shounen friends having a brawl to clear the air"

I'm not even sure it would HAVE to be a physical fight. I could see edge bonus applying to a VERBAL attack instead.

And in general, if we're summoning Names, I'd prefer to stick to chances 90% or higher. Considering how expensive they are.
I'm willing to go as low as 80% personally, but that depends on how much we pay to improve our odds.

if we're paying, say, 45 bits for an extra 5%, then we might as well just add a conditional "if fail, try again" instead, potentially.

for Biedde in any case we need AT LEAST an edge 3 reagent. that's the bare minimum for me to consider it.

Mare in the Light sacrifice could be an option next turn, for example.

Does AotL and Influence stack? Is there a point in adding Edge AotL too?
AotL doubles the application bonus (+5 per lore level when it applies), so for Edge it would be an extra +20 to a SINGLE ROLL.

influence is +10 per tier of influence (goes from 1 to 4) to ALL rolls of that lore for the whole turn if given by a Name, and 2 turns if gained from Mansus or ritual.

so yes, they stack.

but AotL is kind of a subtle nudge, a whisper from the world telling you how to do something. an influence is the world's laws bowing to you to make that lore more prevalent, and you BETTER at it.

and generally speaking AotL might not be noticed by other lore users, but an Influence is obvious. It's an Aura of Power.

It's going to Comet with a neon sign telling him "I'm ready to fight, and to win, and maybe to kill you".

Into the Sacrament, he didn't complete it, yes. But. Not the point.

The point is that the fleeting action is talking to Comet about Shining. Whether that question is "What the hell man" or "So, why didn't you kill him" or some variation on the theme. Either way.... This is Comet. If he even responds, if he says something as simple as "You wouldn't understand " he has a point. Velvet never lingered under an Edge Influence. Velvet never had to go out as the tool of war for the Master.

Even if she does understand, He won't be able to see that she understands. Her edge is too Wolf Tainted. An Edge Influence is... It's a way of telling him "I am trying to understand."


I don't think it's a bad idea. It makes the chance of escalation much worse. But I also think it has the chance that things improve.
I disagree in Edge influence being a good idea. I think it's too agressive.

I see an AotL as has trying to have a "verbal sparring". Us going "I know what you did, and I need to know if there's anything else that might make problems for me and mine, and you're going to tell me" but an Edge Influence is too far.

I mean, we've seen some though? Not even doing crazy Lore stuff. An early Twilight social had a DC 160 to really impress her, and there was a 180 breakpoint when introducing Rarity to noble society. I'm probably forgetting one or two others as well.

oh, I actually forgot.

Copper: "better than coinflip chances to summon a fucking Name without even having to burn her best minions, and she wants better? God, Velvet is such a snob." :V

Copper approaches it like a Cultist.

Velvet is a perfectionist. If we could, we'd roll with 99.9% chances every time, but we have to bow to the cruel reality that, at some point, it's just better to just try a second time if we fail

Let's be clear here. You're not saying we can't afford Biedde. You're saying that we can't afford any degree of risk in the Jade RotT.

I think that's a little misguided! 16% failure is tolerable! If we fail, we still have another turn — to do a Velvet super powered book search, or scry a book we can buy, or see if we get anything from the multiple expeditions we have planned.

And when the reward for accepting that risk is a very good chance at a NAME, I think we should.
scried book could not be on sale, but have to be gotten through an expedition. Bird said we can't decide to scry specifically for a book on sale, just for "a suitable book".

Expeditions are possible, but again not certain. canterlot part might very well not have lvl 5 books, and we might not even be able to afford Frangiclave expedition next turn.

as for a Velvet super-search (or Baldomare),the book would then cost 120 bits. So we'd risk not being able to do Frangiclave I think, as that's a lot of extra money to spend.

basically, while there's some possible fixes to that failure, they're VERY EXPENSIVE FIXES.

So yeah, I'd rather delay Biedde by one turn in exchange for reducing our chances of problems with Baldomare by quite a bit.
 
Copper: "better than coinflip chances to summon a fucking Name without even having to burn her best minions, and she wants better? God, Velvet is such a snob." :V
Not only that, but we can even feasibly summon two whole Names at very good chances in the same month!

The power of reagents and rerolls is strong in Velvet :V
 
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Tbh it seems a little unwise to just waltz into the Depths of the Ruined Church with no preparation (not even an influence of some sort or another?). I guess we're pretty strong, but it feels a little cocky.

[X] Plan A Cheaper Beckoning of Biedde
-[X] (AotL) Edge
-[X] (Forge) Edge 3
-[X] (Steppes) Ask about Manehattan, what he encountered there, its neighborhoods, anywhere we should avoid if we were to visit!
—[X] (A little bit of direction if we were to send someone there)
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] Summon Biedde
--[X] Sacrifice Edge 3 and Wrong Key
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Explore the Mansus
--[X] Find a new location in the Ashen Wastes
--[X] Explore the depths of the Ruined Church
-[X] Social Filthy Rich

[X] Plan A Cheaper Beckoning of Biedde (no hubris)
-[X] (AotL) Edge
-[X] (Forge) Edge 3
-[X] (Steppes) Ask about Manehattan, what he encountered there, its neighborhoods, anywhere we should avoid if we were to visit!
—[X] (A little bit of direction if we were to send someone there)
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] Summon Biedde
--[X] Sacrifice Edge 3 and Wrong Key
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Explore the Mansus
--[X] Find a new location in the Ashen Wastes
--[X] Find a new location in the Shattered Stairwells
-[X] Social Filthy Rich
 
Oh yeah, that reminds me, another good reason to get Edge Influence is in case Copper attacks. We do have someone guarding, but I would still like Velvet to not have to hide behind a meatshield and hope she isn't attacked. Also just in case we get really lucky and a Worthy Enemy shows up, we could be ready to get the Sacrament!
 
Tbh it seems a little unwise to just waltz into the Depths of the Ruined Church with no preparation (not even an influence of some sort or another?). I guess we're pretty strong, but it feels a little cocky.
I mean the last time we were in the Church, our Grail Influence wasn't particularly useful for the expedition obstacles themselves, so we basically cleared it Influence-less.

And if we do end up summoning Biedde, there's a notable chance we will actually have an Influence when we go in :V
 
If only we had a dead body to make into an Edge 2 Sacrifice for free, to improve our summons without accosting our bank account.
 
It's going to Comet with a neon sign telling him "I'm ready to fight, and to win, and maybe to kill you".
There is also the tiny chance that Comet thinks we are loyal to the Master, so any act of aggression can be seen as the Master sending Velvet to kill Comet after he left the Cult.
 
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There is also the tiny chance that Comet thinks we are loyal to the the Master, so any act of aggression can be seen as the Master sending Velvet to kill Comet after he left the Cult.
Can't be, Comet left the Cult and the Master came to collect his handing over Shinning was him paying up annd imo regardless of his reasoning Comet will think we're here personally.
 
I still see nothing worthwhile in talking to Comet he knows what he did, he knows why he did it. If he was ever bothered by it he would have told Velvet. I do not see how telling him Velvet killed the Master would in anyway prevent him from utterly hating/being terrified of Velvet.
 
[X] Plan Sacrament
-[X] (AotL) Edge
-[X] (Forge) SH3, for The calling of an influence
-[X] (Social) Level up Jade
-[X] (Steppes) ask what's the general opinion about you and the Bureau among nobles and common ponies alike.
-[X] "The proper things, in the proper manner, in the proper order. God help us all." (Perform a Ritual)
--[X] "The calling of Influence" (Secret Histories)
--[X] To be performed on an inconspicuous place, located by Baldomare
-[X] Fleeting Opportunity: Comet Feet
-[X] Study: Forge 3, Forge 3, Mystery Book
-[X] Explore the Mansus
--[X] Explore the Red Church
--[X] [MANSUS] Tarrying in the Wastes is always a poor idea… but there is no other way to discover what this place holds. (Search for a new area)
-[X] These are the skills that allow you to climb the Mansus. (Actions towards your possible Sacraments)
--[X] Attempt, even if foolishly, to untangle the webs of the Secret Histories
---[X] Investigate your current skills. To try to understand them, if nothing else. (Current progress 1/3) (THIS IS A DANGEROUS ACTION)

Going to up the reagent to 3, I think it'll be fine. A little hesitant about the Red Church with Ourladyofwires warning, but keeping it for now. Changing grail to edge because I agree it'll help more with Comet. If it gets no traction I may change to something else. Not as interested in summoning Biedde this turn, and I worry with the amount we're already spending on the rituals if we can afford it if we forge the reagents considering the cost of our follower's rituals and the Canterlot expedition..
 
I still see nothing worthwhile in talking to Comet he knows what he did, he knows why he did it. If he was ever bothered by it he would have told Velvet. I do not see how telling him Velvet killed the Master would in anyway prevent him from utterly hating/being terrified of Velvet.
Uhh... We are not going to do that... Velvet doesn't really talk to anyone about the RA's we are just going to confront him about not telling us. And the goal is to make sure he doesn't do that again, maybe clear the air between them and see if there is anything else the Master didn't tell us(because Moth).

Can't be, Comet left the Cult and the Master came to collect his handing over Shinning was him paying up annd imo regardless of his reasoning Comet will think we're here personally.
To be fair, Moth is the Lore of secrets and lies. The Moth Name manipulating a mortal by saying she is going to leave him alone if he does it a small favour and then sending someone to kill him for the betrayal feels really in-character.
 
Another funny thing could be the narrative of doing the Bureau loyalty action while wearing an Edge Influence. Especially after what Velvet just learned about her reputation. :V
Fortunately, Name-channeled Influences have much, much less 'bleed' than Called Influences and can actually be controlled to an extent, if DoA's and Baldomare's Influences are anything to go by.
 
Fortunately, Name-channeled Influences have much, much less 'bleed' than Called Influences and can actually be controlled to an extent, if DoA's and Baldomare's Influences are anything to go by.
Dang it, why you gotta ruin my amusement like that? I wanna see super scary Edge monster Velvet trying to socialize with her terrified minions! :V

(Not really, but it's still a really funny image)
 
I'm now wondering if "One Who Is Very Great" is basically a trait granted from being at Lore 6.
This would be funny, but I think it's doubtful. Just because we're the strongest a mortal can be, doesn't put us on the level of a Name.

(Don't forget a Name's Level 6 is also still just a faction of their actual power, as Baldomare demonstrated!)
 
Dang it, why you gotta ruin my amusement like that? I wanna see super scary Edge monster Velvet trying to socialize with her terrified minions! :V

(Not really, but it's still a really funny image)
Well on the bright side, the minimal 'bleed' of Name Influences might mean it wouldn't quite be as aggressive compared to walking up to Comet with a Called Influence :V

Though actually, I wonder if the more regulated nature of the Name Influences also make them more difficult to notice, since it's not leaking everywhere? @OurLadyOfWires?
 
…Hmm. You know, I wonder if murder grandpa might think Comet and Velvet are, if not actually part of a dyad, then at least heading that way. Because a scarred mare saddling up with a maximum Edge influence from a Colonel Name to go talk to another Edge adept—and conveniently reaching Sacrament level as well as equaling Comet in sheer Edge—who also happened to refuse going down the path of the Colonel is admittedly just a mite suspicious.

…I might have been watching too many Doctor Who clips recently because now I'm having weird visions of Velvet and Comet standing in for Missy and the Doctor, and the former's constant insistence that they're totally friends who treat trying to kill each other like exaggerated texting. if ever there was an Edge Dyad in non-CS fiction, it would be them.
 
I (finally!) have a little time to actually engage with this quest, hurray! Not enough to analyze the proposed plans, though, so no vote yet, but I do want to thank Bird for the update. Velvet continues to be hilariously - and mostly unintentionally - terrifying.

Also, a little bit more on "terrifying".

About calling the Edge Influence and going to Comet with it, especially a max level one.

I think this is a bad idea. Not a terrible one, very pointedly, because I think it will succeed - it will just have consequences.

Because consider the situation, what Velvet knows, and what Comet knows - both about the situation and his knowledge of Velvet's knowledge.

First, from the very fact that Velvet is coming to him and is asking him questions... She is not with the Master. Because the Master has already released Comet - there's no need for a loyal Loremaster to come after him.

Then, Velvet is either on her own behalf, on the behalf of the Princesses - if there's a difference, even. And Comet has assisted in attack on the Princesses, because we are quite sure at this point that Comet knew something about Shining - timing doesn't make much sense otherwise, the Master has attacked the Shining on the third day of his stay, there simply was no time for Comet to learn much about him, not with his habits - and it is either his position or his bond with Cadance. Logically, he must also suspect what might cause a visit.

At best, Comet has endangered Velvet's tools. At worst, he has endangered Velvet's friends and/or family, because apparently, Velvet is trusted by the Crown, for some reason. Apparently, there's some sort of history that he is not privy to.

And from Stormchaser, Comet knows that Velvet can be absolutely, hilariously paranoid about her daughters. Well, "daughter" back then, but...

Sure, "daughter" is not friends, but she hides things very well, and she was very, very protective of her family. Even a lessed degree of protectiveness is rather large.

Consider also the fact that Velvet resonates very well with the Colonel, even considering the fact of her rebellion - because every rebel isn't, once they win. And Comet is very familiar with the Colonel, even if he tries to distance himself from that time.

And the Colonel was never big on mercy.

And Velvet had... reputation with the cult. Remember who was responsible for the Windigoes? Sure, the actual summoning wasn't Velvet's, but the rituals themselves were, even if the Cult has misinterpreted them.

And then, one day, Velvet, the Scarred Mare, comes to his doorstep. Frailer, perhaps, than he is - probably, he thinks, for Comet should be able to sense that Velvet is strong in Heart, too - but more or less as dangerous as he was when he assaulted the entire Hive of the Changelings. Sure, he had windigoes, and sure, he isn't just a Changeling - but he is alone.

Like this, Velvet will be much more than "a worthy opponent", I am quite sure, and Comet will know it.

Sure, she isn't attacking yet, but the Colonel's root of victory was always the Cunning. It pays to be patient. It doesn't look to me - and so probably to Comet - like she intends to talk, or to learn. It looks like she is here to insure he isn't a threat, one way or another. It looks like a mace ready, at moment's notice, to execute him if he gives a wrong answer.

And Comet should remember how he was, under the max Influence, and he knows that Velvet knows, too. And he doesn't know that Velvet is rather adept at wrangling them (and even then, remember what happened with Rarity and Grail Influence?). Could Velvet honestly consider that she would be able to just negotiate with him? Was she so careless? Even if she was, would she be able to follow through?

Comet hates Velvet, but he is content to be with Fluttershy. It seemed that Velvet was content with such a relationship too, but... Is she content now, in his eyes? Or is she here to forge a coffin of her making?

And even if he doesn't see one now... It pays to be patient, both he and Velvet know. It pays to be patient.

And from what he sees, Velvet is legitimately a better cultist and a better schemer that he is. Would he be able to see a coffin, if she gave it a comparable level of preparation - because max Influences are not supposed to be easy to attain.

That... will change the dynamics of our relationship, I think.
 
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I mean, it's definitely possible it will backfire. I'm not gonna pretend it isn't. But I do think that's a whole lot of speculation from someone with a different mindset and view of Comet's perspective from the QM who has to write it. :V

(To be clear, this is me pointing out that I don't think anybody can predict how this will go, with or without the Influence)

Also, to be fair, if we come at Comet with a metaphorical executioner's axe and every reason to be pissed, then don't kill him… I think that would change our relationship too.
 

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