Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[ses]

If we've got ~1 turn left, it's zero value, but so is everything else. Fine.

If we've got ~2 turns left, it's very marginally worse, because maybe we have an expedition worth doing. Feels absurdly doubtful, but fine.

If we've got ~3+ turns left, I'm not entirely sure we want to just totally ditch Dodge City? In that it has potential rewards (see Tall Tale, which was smaller than this) + feels off to utterly ditch the requirements of the Lunar Bureau?

I agree it's probably more likely than not we have less than 3 turns left. But I think when weighing benefits it's worth considering both value assuming we get that far and the chance we do get that far -- and that Dodge City probably wins out on that level.

Click to shrink...

If we have more than 3 turns left it's because Selene fixed the Daybreaker issue and therefore there will likely no longer be an extermination order for the changelings. We have confirmation that they aren't planning an attack on ponies any time soon and are trying to evacuate the country. We can slow-walk the next step on changelings for the 3 turns it takes for Daybreaker to be solved. Therefore changelings are now zero value.

"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."
― Sun Tzu

It seems intuitively obvious to me that if the changelings are trying to retreat and aren't planning an attack, and we very obviously can go 2-3 turns going "It's on my desk" while putting no actual effort into changeling extermination other than making mouth noises about how hard we're working on it (we delayed Tall Tale for 2 turns and nothing came of it, and we just had a big win), then therefore we should not spend our resources getting into an existential war of survival with the changelings?

Honestly I'm half-tempted into having Selene try to establish a line of communication for Velvet and the changeling leadership to coordinate how they will keep their heads down and not draw any attention to themselves until the whole "Celestia wants to genocide you" thing blows over. It's better for Velvet, the changelings, Equestria's civilian population and future-Celestia herself after she's had her Snickers for the issue to not be forced right now and for the Bureau to spend its time looting crystal skulls from ancient temples instead.

 

[Shaper47]

If Celestia pops in to ask what we are/have doing about the Changeling having Velvet's answer be not much is kinda dangerous.

I mean, she has reviewed the Bureau's actions before remember.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Why do this over Investigating Windy (makes sense with us getting our hands dirty) or Dodge City follow-up? This seems a very low-value action, unless I'm missing something.

Click to shrink...

Well sending Investigators after people is for people Velvet has a "personal problem with," and so anyone who hopes to approach him on friendlier terms will want to go about contacting him some other way.

As for the Changeling Colony by Dodge City, well, we personally know that the Changelings' grand plan is to fuck off with all possible haste, which combined with being too massive to handle leaves it less concerning and less convenient than looking for new places to loot problems coming in to take a swing at the Kingdom.

 

[Shaper47]

As for the Changeling Colony by Dodge City, well, we personally know that the Changelings' grand plan is to fuck off with all possible haste,

Click to shrink...

Look even if you don't consider the issue of failing Celestia's test during her next review.

"I also heard of your findings in Tall Tale. As well as the attempt against your life," she says.

Click to shrink...

"… it seems you have quite a lot on your hoofs," she finishes.

And you are not sure if this means she just does not care, or if this is yet another test to see what you will do next.

Click to shrink...

There's still the issue that the Changelings are going to "fuck off" with their harvest. In fact they'll probably stock up on supplies before leaving.

They'll probably also come back to Equestria to raid small defenseless villages for food.

The Bureau could have morale issues from just letting that happen.

I get the feeling that the thread would have moral issues with that.

 

[spiderhellian]

I can see the future unfolding, and in it we "can't target detectives at Windy because it will scare him" and so take the much gentler action of not doing anything related to Windy instead

Hmmm...

@OurLadyOfWires Can we target our detectives at Neighnea?

 

[ses]

I can see the future unfolding, and in it we "can't target detectives at Windy because it will scare him" and so take the much gentler action of not doing anything related to Windy instead

Hmmm...

@OurLadyOfWires Can we target our detectives at Neighnea?

Click to shrink...

Yuuuuuup. I'll post a windy and a non-windy plan when moratorium ends, so hopefully we can get the windy one off the ground without needing to take a low value detectives action instead.

I do think you're not giving expeditions enough credit though. We're probably going to have constables do an expedition every turn for the rest of the game and expeditions have given us oodles of loot each and every time.

@OurLadyOfWires not to spam you with pings, lol, but I just wanted to clear with you how you want to handle the Follower's phase vote if our plan involves summoning two MITLs via Name AP, and wanting to make sure our Cover Your Bases actions and Graverob action fall on our summoned/unintelligent followers so that Servants and Fluttershy can provide +2 Smiles each. Also do we need to be concerned about Suspicion if we volunteer our servants to Smiles?

 

[spiderhellian]

I do think you're not giving expeditions enough credit though. We're probably going to have constables do an expedition every turn for the rest of the game and expeditions have given us oodles of loot each and every time.

Click to shrink...

We've been told that Bureau expeditions will play out differently than conventional ones, and I think this is overly-confident when we haven't seen even one unfold.

...I will also be sad if the Bureau meets the same "Time to make us [resource] again, dear!" fate as Rarity, and don't really want to plan for them to play out that way.

 

[Solace2117]

I'd ultimately like to save Mayor Mare. I don't necessarily think it's essential, but it's one of those, not lines in the sand moments, but a bit of a character influencing decision and I'd rather not sacrifice her if we don't have to. I also think a town where the Mayor is working with the Cult is better then one without.

We mostly seem committed to 2 cover your bases actions. So 6 Velvet and 7 with the social. The only for sure actions are purifying the regent and the moth sacrament. If we're not using Mareinette for the expedition, which we don't really need to, she's available for that or Cadence. That means we could potentially toss 5 at Cadence and have one left over.

I guess we could toss one at Smiles or something else, but in the grand scheme of things I doubt it matters much unless if we have to go All in quickly. We're sacrificing one random pony for quick power, narratively I like the idea of going out of our way to save another just because.

 

[Wise Wolf]

We've been told that Bureau expeditions will play out differently than conventional ones, and I think this is overly-confident when we haven't seen even one unfold.

...I will also be sad if the Bureau meets the same "Time to make us [resource] again, dear!" fate as Rarity, and don't really want to plan for them to play out that way.

Click to shrink...

Tbf, the entire reason we might have it do expeditions every turn is that there are 2-3 turns left.

 

[Wise Wolf]

We mostly seem committed to 2 cover your bases actions. So 6 Velvet and 7 with the social. The only for sure actions are purifying the regent and the moth sacrament. If we're not using Mareinette for the expedition, which we don't really need to, she's available for that or Cadence. That means we could potentially toss 5 at Cadence and have one left over.

Click to shrink...

If we don't save Mayor Mare, we only take one cover your bases action. That lets Rarity make us bits, Fluttershy have fun times with Smiles, and Smiles summon a MITL for future turns. So the opportunity cost of saving Mayor Mare is 100 bits, sacrificing a Mare in the Light, and not getting to read Fluttershy helping Smiles proselytize troublemaking.

That last is a sacrifice I am not prepared to make.

 

[Solace2117]

If we don't save Mayor Mare, we only take one cover your bases action. That lets Rarity make us bits, Fluttershy have fun times with Smiles, and Smiles summon a MITL for future turns. So the opportunity cost of saving Mayor Mare is 100 bits, sacrificing a Mare in the Light, and not getting to read Fluttershy helping Smiles proselytize troublemaking.

That last is a sacrifice I am not prepared to make.

Click to shrink...

Greymere has 2 tentative plans that allow us the save her and summon a Mare in Light. How many did you plan to summon. Sure we're not as worried about suspicion now, but it seems a little unwise to summon multiple this turn. The bits are good, but we are already saving money by having the Bureau foot the bill on one expedition.

Besides you're assuming Comet would let her help Smiles, you know he'll take charge there, especially if he knows/finds out she's pregnant.

 

[ses]

Greymere has 2 tentative plans that allow us the save her and summon a Mare in Light. How many did you plan to summon. Sure we're not as worried about suspicion now, but it seems a little unwise to summon multiple this turn. The bits are good, but we are already saving money by having the Bureau foot the bill on one expedition.

Besides you're assuming Comet would let her help Smiles, you know he'll take charge there, especially if he knows/finds out she's pregnant.

Click to shrink...

I'm highly anchored to 2 MITL summons this turn. One from Smiles saccing a Wrong Key and one from Axe. That gets us

Servants: CYB
Risen: CYB
Risen: CYB
MITL: CYB
MITL: CYB
Comet: Graverob
Rarity: Commission
Jade: Research Moth 3

I suppose we just lose a Selene +3 smiles AP if one of the summonings fails?

This is by far our best available use of their Name AP. It's not even close. There's nothing else Smiles can do this turn that's better than this, and Axe's only competition is Wrong Key crafting which we dont need to do this turn.

 

[OurLadyOfWires]

Scheduled vote count started by OurLadyOfWires on Jan 22, 2026 at 5:36 PM, finished with 1 posts and 0 votes.

No votes were able to be tallied!

 

[Solace2117]

I'm highly anchored to 2 MITL summons this turn. One from Smiles saccing a Wrong Key and one from Axe. That gets us

Servants: CYB
Risen: CYB
Risen: CYB
MITL: CYB
MITL: CYB
Comet: Graverob
Rarity: Commission
Jade: Research Moth 3

I suppose we just lose a Selene +3 smiles AP if one of the summonings fails?

This is by far our best available use of their Name AP. It's not even close. There's nothing else Smiles can do this turn that's better than this, and Axe's only competition is Wrong Key crafting which we dont need to do this turn.

Click to shrink...

Fair enough, I'm not thrilled about it, I'd rather see how one goes and summon multiple next turn if there's no issue. The risk may be gone with us running the Bureau, but we don't know that for sure or really what the consequences will be. I'm not willing to fight that hard on it though. I care more about putting 5 actions towards Cadence and saving Mayor Mare.

 

[DelightedOne]

Is it supposed to be condescending too?

Click to shrink...

No, sorry if it came across as condesceding.

Just tried to do something(obviously it failed ). And since I clearly didn't manage to convince you, I will stop.

 

[Shaper47]

[X] Plan: Moth Mastery

[X] Plan: Befriending Smiles

[X] Plan: Betraying Our Friend Windy

[X] Plan: Befriending Smiles and sending Selene to Dodge City colony



[X] Plan: Moth Mastery
-[X] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[X] (Detectives) Analyse your options regarding the Changeling Colony
-[X] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[X] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[X] (Director) Moth
-[X] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[X] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[X] (Smiles) Consult
-[X] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[X] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[X] Recalibrate: Grail
-[X] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[X] (Jade) Study Moth 3 artifact
-[X] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[X] Scry Moth 5 Book (x 3)
-[X] Grab a corpse for a Risen
-[X] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)


[X] Plan: Befriending Smiles
-[X] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[X] (Detectives) Analyse your options regarding the Changeling Colony
-[X] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[X] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[X] (Director) Moth
-[X] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[X] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[X] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[X] (Selene) The Quarry of Yuxtabai (2 AP)
-[X] (Smiles) Consult
-[X] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[X] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[X] Recalibrate: Grail
-[X] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[X] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[X] Grab a corpse for a Risen
-[X] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)


[X] Plan: Betraying Our Friend Windy
-[X] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[X] (Detectives) Analyse your options regarding the Changeling Colony
-[X] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[X] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[X] (Director) Moth
-[X] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[X] Scry Windy
-[X] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[X] (Selene) The Quarry of Yuxtabai (2 AP)
-[X] (Smiles) Consult
-[X] (Smiles-Free) Lead an assault: Windy
-[X] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[X] Recalibrate: Grail
-[X] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[X] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[X] Grab a corpse for a Risen
-[X] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)


[X] Plan: Befriending Smiles and sending Selene to Dodge City colony
-[X] Leash Spoiled Milk
-[X] (Detectives) There are still changelings out there. Hunt them. Look for them, and for the ponies who colluded with them.
-[X] (Constables) Expedition: The Choked City
-[X] (Commissioner) Cadance
-[X] (Director) Moth
-[X] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Cadance
-[X] (Baldomare) Lantern lesson
-[X] (DoA) Expedition: The Quarry of Yuxtabai
-[X] (Selene) The Quarry of Yuxtabai (2 AP)
-[X] (Smiles) Edge Influence on Selene
-[X] (Smiles-Free) Lead an expedition: Dodge City colony
--[X] Selene joins
-[X] (Cherenkolt) Consult
--[X] Recalibrate: Grail
-[X] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[X] (Rarity) Focus on her work
-[X] Lead an expedition: Is It Free Real Estate?
-[X] Cover your bases (-2 Follower AP, +1 Velvet AP)

 

[Greymere]

It does seem to me that your choice is not moving us toward victory. It is playing defense, not offense. Having 100 more bits, a summon, and closer to befriending Smiles are all things that help us win. Keeping Mayor Mare alive and limiting the Daughter's influence (insofar as we can) are playing to not lose. They don't increase our power. They don't help us All-In. They don't help us in Malleary.

Do you see it differently?

Click to shrink...

Tracking down the Master also would have been playing defense, and not offense.

It was still something that we really should have done. And unlike with Windy, we can't really take any other steps to potentially counter their influence besides making sure that Mayor Mare is a) the one in charge, and b) on our side. Which, if we want to do that, we kind of have to do now. We can't put it off to the side until we know whether Daybreaker will be defused in time or not.

Why do this over Investigating Windy (makes sense with us getting our hands dirty) or Dodge City follow-up? This seems a very low-value action, unless I'm missing something.

Click to shrink...

Unless Selene defuses Daybreaker, I don't think there's any realistic way that we're going to have the time or desire to do... whatever with him, across this and next turn. Searching for new expeditions at least has some potential to pay out before we go for All In, if our deadline gets extended to T25 at the end of this turn. Or rather, we will have the time if we're willing to make time for it, but I don't think we'll want to.

If we don't save Mayor Mare, we only take one cover your bases action. That lets Rarity make us bits, Fluttershy have fun times with Smiles, and Smiles summon a MITL for future turns. So the opportunity cost of saving Mayor Mare is 100 bits, sacrificing a Mare in the Light, and not getting to read Fluttershy helping Smiles proselytize troublemaking.

That last is a sacrifice I am not prepared to make.

Click to shrink...

We can very comfortably summon a MitL and save Mayor Mare and still have 5 AP on helping Cadance and make +6 progress on Smiles. The only real opportunity cost is the 100 bits which is... eh? We're probably going to end up doing commission next turn anyway, if we don't do it this turn.

Now, we could technically afford to do 5 Cadance AP and save Mayor Mare if we went all in on Cover Your Bases +2, and that's at least more defensible. But it's still irresponsible. We're going to be very hard pressed to Befriend Smiles next turn if we do that and don't highroll Soothe the Sun, as we'll have less MITL/Risen AP on turn 24 to CYB with and less progress on Smiles from this turn leaving us with very little wiggle room on reaching 40 points via Velvet AP. We'd have no margin whatsoever to accomplish anything besides bumrushing Smiles. That means no studying any studyables we find outside the main level 7 book, no AP to deal with curveballs the QM throws, probably can't even fit in a Redemption of the Forge to get back up to 3 HP before All In.

Click to shrink...

Even at +6 progress this turn, we're not nearly as hard pressed as you think. We'll have two Mareinette AP next turn, which is +10 right there. Another +6 from Selene. And we'll have 5 - 6 mortal follower AP (+2 each) to throw at it, depending on the Leash situation at the end of this turn. And the +2 from passive progress.

Or, in other words, if we end this turn on +7 progress (+6 from Selene, +1 from passive), then the most that Velvet needs to add is her Social Action and 1 AP. Which is... fine? That still leaves enough AP for SH Sacrament, making the Blue Gold, a Forge's Redemption, and a flex slot. Two flex slots, if we put our Constables on Paperwork that turn (which, if we're racing for All In at the end of Turn 24, why wouldn't we?). Assuming we'd want to hold on to Rarity and Jade's actions anyway. If we get can get another AP with the Leash, then we can preserve one of the two and still only need to spend our Social Action.

Spoiler: Math

We'd be at 7/40 progress at the end of this turn if Selene helps twice. +6 from Selene, +1 from passive gain.

Next turn:

• Mareinette, x2 (7 -> 17/40)
• Selene, x2 (17 -> 23/40)
• Fluttercomet (23 -> 25/40)
• Filthy Rich (25 -> 27/40)
• Servants (27 -> 29/40)

Branch 1 (Leash AP available, discard Rarity or Jade OR discard both Rarity and Jade):

• DoA, x1 (29 -> 30/40)
• Leash | Jade OR Rarity (30 -> 32/40)
• Jade OR Rarity (32 -> 34/40)
• Velvet Social (34 -> 39/40)
• +1 Passive (39 -> 40)

Branch 2 (Leash AP not available OR preserve both Jade and Rarity AP):

• Velvet Social (29 -> 34/40)
• Velvet AP (34 -> 39/40)
• +1 Passive (39 -> 40/40)

"But Greymere!" You may say. "Isn't it a complete waste of DoA's AP to have her help Smiles instead of doing literally anything else?"

Yes, technically. However. Consider the situation where this sort of crunch would be happening. Namely, that Selene does not extend our timer with the T23 Soothe the Night. Under such a circumstance, we must assume that our deadline is at the end of T24... and thus there would be no point in sending DoA out on an expedition, as we wouldn't get the chance to use or study whatever goodies came of them anyway. And if we're lucky and the Daybreaker clock is extended or defused on T23 Soothe the Night, then how well we can crunch Smiles progress on T24 doesn't matter anyway since we'll be able to spread it over 2 - 3 turns instead of piling it all onto one.

Also if we can have a MitL go gravedigging this turn after being summoned then we could replace DoA's Smiles AP with the Mare anyway, with Risen + Smiles on Cover Your Bases instead of Smiles + MitL (sorry Smiles, but you can't actively help with your own friendship quest).

 

[Wise Wolf]

Tracking down the Master also would have been playing defense, and not offense.

It was still something that we really should have done. And unlike with Windy, we can't really take any other steps to potentially counter their influence besides making sure that Mayor Mare is a) the one in charge, and b) on our side.

Click to shrink...

The Master was one of the biggest threats to us in the setting; a Name with agency, who was operating in the Wake, and who we had betrayed.

It's not that we should literally never play defense. We're going to Soothe the Night and spend a lot of actions on Helping Cadance this turn, and that's all defense. But that's defense against Daybreaker, a lethal threat to us.

Compared to the Master and Daybreaker, Softy's wolf cult is simply not a threat to us at all. We do not need to defend ourselves against them. We should focus on winning.

We can very comfortably summon a MitL and save Mayor Mare and still have 5 AP on helping Cadance and make +6 progress on Smiles. The only real opportunity cost is the 100 bits which is... eh? We're probably going to end up doing commission next turn anyway, if we don't do it this turn.

Click to shrink...

We are sacrificing three Follower AP. If you don't want to spend them on bits and an extra MITL and a Smiles assist, that's fine; but your opportunity cost still needs to be whatever you assign Fluttershy/Comet, Rarity and Smiles to do. And Smiles is a Name; his AP is pretty valuable even if you don't think a full extra MITL is the best use.