ATP
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The Kwantung army of Japan was having disciplinary issues by 1900. As we'll touch on, Japan had a policy of shipping politically inconvenient officers to Korea (going back to the 1870s), in fact IJA policy was to segregate cliques away from one another largely because they were continuation of region loyalities. and what I mean by that is during the Meiji period you had the beginning of the army's transition from the Samurai elite but you still had strong provincial loyalties but as political parties emerge in the 1890s these regional loyalities are gradually sidelined and eclipsed by the 1910s by different factions within the IJA (and as factions fall from grace their officers are forced into retirement).
So what happens is that Tokyo already has limitted control over the Kwantung Army HQ in northern China, and that is really what sparks the second sino japanese war. The Japanese protectorate in Siberia that forms up in the twenties and thirties will be an international point of contention but its under an entirely different Army command from the Kwantung Garrison in north china and that relationship will have to be expanded upon (The Kwantung Army HQ by 1925 had become very opposed to Sun Yat-sen, he was supported he was hosted in Japan previously by rival factions anyway which probably didn't make him very popular, but he was / had espoused pro bolshevik positions and Chiang (regardless of his later positions) likewise had espoused positions that made the Kwantung generals nervous, now IGHQ in Tokyo had told them more than once to stay out of things in the south, they were told in no uncertain terms do not cause an incident. [KwHQ being a dumping ground for young officer malcontents already had a reputation]
As Roosevelt, to be entirely honest he already sufficent planning to provoke Japan into war as in the apparent plan was to allow Japanese attacks against US naval vessels in the western pacific ala a repeat of the Panay incident (along with others) and use that as justification for further responses against Japan. Roosevelt would have worked towards getting a war if he had wanted one, it would have just required more time. The plan was to basically bait the Japanese into attacking old outdated US ships engaging in freedom of navigation excercises and then call the IJA pirates . Roosevelt did not take seriously the idea that Japan would actually attack Pearl any attack against US territorial assets were assumed to be aimed at the Phillipines due to the logistics involved.
So yes in this timeline China will remain divided until after the second world war largely because its at that point where most of the potential external threats are removed or otherwise neutralized, and the one that isn't the Soviet Union doesn't have the force projection in Asia of the OTL (for reasons that will show up in the following Arc).
Yes,Japan have their problems with officers - but here they should send them on soviet border.No need to keep troublemakers on China border.
About Pearl - it seems,that FDR knew,and do not cared.Here,old,but good book about it:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...p/0743201299&usg=AOvVaw0X2dVNsiT_CxGmE_qEnZAQ
Or,to precise - cared,becouse wanted war which american public supported.