Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[spiderhellian]

Couple's therapy sounds fun. But unfortunately, this is a big "try and find out".

On the one hand, Name of Grail. On the other, you don't need a lot of effort to socialize a pony who wasn't even in your contacts list, like Spoiled Rich, so that was a very low bar.

You call, as always.

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Hm.

I kinda think we should risk it, getting Filthy to the level of real Confidant seems great. And we were told it's not going to take a lot to make Spoiled a Confidant.

Edit: Also, keep in mind that the Moth 5 book has a -50 penalty on it. Even with a max Lantern Influence, we're still only going to be rolling with an average of +30

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@Greymere This isn't quite right.

We have +14 Learning + 20 Lantern (Application) + 5 (Well-read) + 5-15 (avg. 10? SH artefact ) = 49+40 (Lantern influence) = 89.

-50 from difficulty, we still roll +39. 40% chance of succeeding without reroll, 64% chance with reroll, basically guaranteed (99%) with two studies.

@OurLadyOfWires Should we consider the ruling on the Knock book to also apply to reading the Moth book + doing that Sacrament next turn?

 

[Greymere]

Anyway, new Lightcatcher! Now with even more light in the form of Midday Dew.

[] Plan Lightcatcher V2
-[] (Detectives) Follow Up: Changelings
-[] (Constables) Follow Up: The Gardeners
-[] (Commissioner) Midday Dew
-[] (Grail-Leash) Filthy Rich
-[] (Baldomare-Gift) Edge 6 book
-[] (Baldomare) Channel a Lantern Influence
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Spoiled Rich
-[] (DoA) Knock lesson
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Selene) Spy on Windy via dreamwalking
-[] (Rarity) Take a commission
-[] (Jade) Research the Memory of Light ritual (Stage 1 Progress: 0/100)
-[] Cover your bases (-9 Follower AP, +3 Velvet AP) -[] (Other) Lend Comet the Heart 3 artifact for the turn, if he's willing

Windigo search & destroy variant not listed, mostly bcuz I assume someone will make a variant if Lightcatcher gains enough traction for it to matter.

Edit: Forgot the accompanying Velvet action draft

• Explore the Summit (Free Mansus)
• Teach Selene (Free Social)
• Fleeting Opportunity: Family
• Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
• DoA Sacrament x 3
• Study x 2: Moth 5 book, Manehattan book, Lantern 4 artifact, Winter 4 artifact

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

BtRC can wait, in my mind. This turn is for pony and snake psyches.

 

[Sveta08]

...wouldn't this end up sending Rarity to go scout BtRC...? I can't really imagine she'd be very good at it.

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... Right you are!
Curses and befouled. Wriggling that plan again.

 

[Sveta08]

@Greymere
I presume that with Lightcatcher v2 you still have the same draft Velvet plan as before?

Assumes that Velvet's phase actions will look something like the following:

• Explore the Summit (Free Mansus)
• Teach Selene (Free Social)
• Forge's Redemption
• DoA Sacrament x 3
• Study x 2: Moth 5 book, Manehattan book; Lantern 4 artifact, Winter 4 artifact
• Family Fleeting Opportunity

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If so, I would warn of potential with Jade's state of mind.

 

[Rafuki22]

-[] [BALDOMARE] Beyond the Map's Edge Expedition

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Aside from wanting Velvet personal Sacrament, i agree with Tiger Dino, too risky to do alongside DoA Sacrament.

[] Plan Lightcatcher V2

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The plan looks nice to me.

 

[Greymere]

@Greymere
I presume that with Lightcatcher v2 you still have the same draft Velvet plan as before?



If so, I would warn of potential with Jade's state of mind.

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Knew I forgot something.

No, new draft Velvet plan has the Forge's Redemption switched out for the Friends FO

Edit: Post has been updated to include the draft Velvet actions also

 

[Greymere]

Um. Actually. I had a thought.

@OurLadyOfWires are we potentially shooting ourselves in the foot by having a max Lantern Influence and a Midday Dew/Eclipse interaction in the same turn?

 

[Sveta08]

Knew I forgot something.

No, new draft Velvet plan has the Forge's Redemption switched out for the Friends FO

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Hmm.
Tell you what. I wanted to snag the books and artifacts next turn, snagging both sacraments this turn. But, people fairly reasonably want to caution and not do two unknown sacraments at once. Fair.

Next turn, we have Forges Redemption and Baldomare Sacrament if we go this plan.
The only thing that is stopping me from putting my whole hearted vote into Lightcatcher V2 is that we have Biedde being used to cover our bases. That never feels good for a Name Action.

Swap Rarity's commission out for Biedde hunting for... The Winter Name, or the Wendigos. Don't care which, it's kinda the same deal. Swap those, and I feel it's gold.

 

[Rafuki22]

Um. Actually. I had a thought.

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If it is similar to meeting with Comet with a level 4 Edge Influence it probably isn't a problem.

 

[spiderhellian]

I would so much rather Biedde build a prison, which we'll need soon or even search for a (short?) expedition than Jade do Memory of Light. Or have Rarity cover our bases, we don't need the bits.

 

[Pittauro]

Shit was warded enough to make Baldomare's scrying of it a little screwy

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It was in a different dimension.

That kinda counts as warded as default, and means NOTHING in regard to other defense.

That said, yes, SH is likely to help, but we can do without if necessary.

...wouldn't this end up sending Rarity to go scout BtRC...? I can't really imagine she'd be very good at it.

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Well, Dear Velvet, I can definitely say there's some Roamanian influence in the architecture and decorations of the Vault's Door...

Anyway, new Lightcatcher! Now with even more light in the form of Midday Dew.

[] Plan Lightcatcher V2
-[] (Detectives) Follow Up: Changelings
-[] (Constables) Follow Up: The Gardeners
-[] (Commissioner) Midday Dew
-[] (Grail-Leash) Filthy Rich
-[] (Baldomare-Gift) Edge 6 book
-[] (Baldomare) Channel a Lantern Influence
-[] (Mareinette) Honored Guest: Spoiled Rich
-[] (DoA) Knock lesson
-[] (Selene) Soothe the night
-[] (Selene) Spy on Windy via dreamwalking
-[] (Rarity) Take a commission
-[] (Jade) Research the Memory of Light ritual (Stage 1 Progress: 0/100)
-[] Cover your bases (-9 Follower AP, +3 Velvet AP) -[] (Other) Lend Comet the Heart 3 artifact for the turn, if he's willing

Windigo search & destroy variant not listed, mostly bcuz I assume someone will make a variant if Lightcatcher gains enough traction for it to matter.

Edit: Forgot the accompanying Velvet action draft

• Explore the Summit (Free Mansus)
• Teach Selene (Free Social)
• Fleeting Opportunity: Family
• Fleeting Opportunity: Friends
• DoA Sacrament x 3
• Study x 2: Moth 5 book, Manehattan book, Lantern 4 artifact, Winter 4 artifact

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I think I'm fine with this.

just to be sure, what did you remove from the previous Velvet actions beside Forge's Redemption?

Um. Actually. I had a thought.

@OurLadyOfWires are we potentially shooting ourselves in the foot by having a max Lantern Influence and a Midday Dew/Eclipse interaction in the same turn?

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uh. good point.

Then again... I wonder if we could fake Velvet learning Lantern through her interactions with Midday Dew.

Next turn, we have Forges Redemption and Baldomare Sacrament if we go this plan.

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Maybe Edge one too. In terms of preparations it takes only Biedde's action for an influence, and a few follower actions for AOTLs.

and the kind of danger it offers (physical wounds) are different from the one from SH Sacrament, I imagine (mostly mental danger and the risk of being replaced by a "bad" Velvet).

The only thing that is stopping me from putting my whole hearted vote into Lightcatcher V2 is that we have Biedde being used to cover our bases. That never feels good for a Name Action.

Swap Rarity's commission out for Biedde hunting for... The Winter Name, or the Wendigos. Don't care which, it's kinda the same deal. Swap those, and I feel it's gold.

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I don't know if Biedde is well equipped for that kind of research, and the bits from Rarity Commission are too important.

 

[Paintmaster]

Fascination.
I should have remembered that.

Preliminary planning things will come along shortly.

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Yeah, I don't think it's permanent unless she keeps digging without taking precautions. Hopefully the lore drop will help with that. Worse case scenario we can inform Selene and maybe she can due something about it in Celestia s dreams. She has winter lores, so that should be useful. We also might have to get her to manage her sister better, given we agreed to not interfere.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

[] Plan Spreading Ourselves Thin Always Gets Us Punished
-[X] Do not leash anypony.
-[X] [DETECTIVES] The dangers in the dark come from outside of Ponykind as well. Listen to the rumors. Study the myths. Look for the threats from without. (Search for Expedition Sites for your later consideration. Additionally, keep an ear on the ground for other "foreign" threats)
-[X] [CONSTABLES] (FOLLOW UP) Your detectives have given you a very long list, of ponies and places involved in the attempt against your life. Round them up and put them all in jail, before this trail goes cold.
-[X] [COMMISSIONER] The Lunar Bureau is not the only recently-minted institution in Equestria. Try to contact the others.
--[X] Eclipse(?), and Midday Dew.
-[X] [JADE] Research "A Memory of Light" (Current progress 0/100, uses Learning and LANTERN)
-[X] [BALDOMARE] Channel an Influence. (Secret Histories)
-[X] [AXE] Ask for a Knock lesson.
-[X] [MAREINETTE] Keep talking to Spoiled Rich.
-[X] [SELENE] Soothe the night. (Her Winter realization. Unknown effects, if any.)
-[X] You would like for somepony to search for books…
--[X] In Ponyville, and its… great assortments of libraries? (HEART, FORGE)
-[X] Three extra Velvet actions! (Costs 9 follower actions)

Here we go. A Plan where we focus on the one big thing in our que instead of trying to handle multiple big things at once, because focusing on multiple big things at once typically bites and/or stabs us in unpleasant ways. DoA blinks out at the end of this turn. DoA doesn't know that the thing she needs in order to be free is on the other side of the mirror. Baldomare's scrying cannot pinpoint the Key That Only Open's location, only determine that it lies somewhere past that mirror. we just had a turn where in-person searching accomplished what scrying could not, so we should cross that mirror with the biggest bonus to in-person searching we can. This means an SH Influence.

We keep Mareinette focused on friending Spoiled Rich in anticipation of Mothing. We have Selene focus on her job of being the Princess of the Night, for her absence was keenly felt. We have most of our Servants focus on giving Velvet more Actions, because she deserves to go on an enthusiastic walk. We have some focusing on finding Heart Books, because that All-4 Family Action won't unlock itself (screw you Ruined Church you wrecker of plans and ruiner of Velvets). We have Jade poke at that Memory so that maybe Harmony is less of a mystery, and because it doesn't cut into our Bits in any capacity. We could alternatively have her scry for Windigos or something, but honestly I think they'll either turn up during the Bureau's follow-up or are actually with Neighnia. I wonder how she'll feel about Selene Wintering up the night.

Speaking of the Bureau, I'm having them follow up on Copper's Cult because it's the best time to nab them, which has a host of beneficial effects. For starters, the more cultists they gab the more proof they'll have that those Level 0 Manuscripts are not false. It'll increase the chances of grabbing someone who knows where the Windigos are kept. It increases the chances of finding those damn jars, if they are present. And it will stretch out the time between Celestia's recreational burnings. For Commissioner Action we poke Eclipse, because Celestia just Lanterned Velvet and that means throwing out feelers to figure out what genius discovered that shit for her. For the Investigators, we send them forth to identify the next Big Danger (tm), or to find us some more short expeditions to knock over for fun and profit.

The merits of this plan is that its focus leaves us more capable of achieving our primary goal this turn rather than risking dropping the ball on something and suffering for it. Should the SH Influence and three Actions on DoA prove overkill, we can even get an Action back with the benefit of knowing Velvet's post-Sacrament state. An AP with additional knowledge is more valuable than one with less to boot, as it allows us to decide on something with one of the turn's giant ??? firmly behind us. Like say, if we cleared it completely unharmed, we could feasibly use that extra AP on something dangerous that we wouldn't risk in conjunction with the unknown world beyond the Mirror.

Also it keeps us focused enough that we don't have to brainwash a Close Friend for simple convenience. Seriously, we've only used the Leash to stop Rarity from getting the Elements killed via Edge-Drunk Comet and to stop Shining from getting Velvet killed by unfortunate dot connecting. I'd rather keep it firmly in the emergency use category.

 

[Sveta08]

I don't know if Biedde is well equipped for that kind of research, and the bits from Rarity Commission are too important

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Ish?

I don't know if Biedde is well suited to that, yes. But, currently the plan with Lightcatcher v2 has... No bits spent. We are at, what, 405 bits currently? Ignoring the commission this turn, Next turn we can expect 160 monthly salary and 50 from Rarity, pay Biedde 60 for sticking around... 550 bits, give or take. Forges Redemption costs 20, say an extra 40 for Reagents. Baldomare's Sacrament, an extra 40. So, 450, so we could send 3 on BtRC pt 3 and scry it for an extra 30 and be left at 60 at turn end.

Considering that is the earliest that could be expected to gun for All In, but is not likely, I only really see Rarity's commission this turn needed if we are planning on going All In at end of next turn. Otherwise, we are in a healthy spot for bits.

Biedde even finding anything, or simply trying to find something that we know is our there, I see as more helpful.

 

[Greymere]

@Talon Tiger Dino please, for the sake of my sanity, put a paragraph break or two somewhere in that massive block of text. It takes up my entire phone screen.

I would so much rather Biedde build a prison, which we'll need soon or even search for a (short?) expedition than Jade do Memory of Light. Or have Rarity cover our bases, we don't need the bits.

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No thanks, I'm not going to enable the use of pony sacrifices.

Edit:

I don't know if Biedde is well suited to that, yes. But, currently the plan with Lightcatcher v2 has... No bits spent. We are at, what, 405 bits currently? Ignoring the commission this turn, Next turn we can expect 160 monthly salary and 50 from Rarity, pay Biedde 60 for sticking around... 550 bits, give or take. Forges Redemption costs 20, say an extra 40 for Reagents. Baldomare's Sacrament, an extra 40. So, 450, so we could send 3 on BtRC pt 3 and scry it for an extra 30 and be left at 60 at turn end.

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Technically it has 105 bits spent but those are all in Velvet Phase or Turn End (its a Forge 3 reagent and Biedde's refresh)

Also keep in mind that in addition to the likely Big Expense of BtRC maybe next turn, there's also likely to be another Big Expense when we find the Forge Name. Because if the Forge Name isn't in the Malleary, I'll eat my (non-existent) hat. Plus however many bits the Manehattan expedition from the book would cost. Aaand however many bits the inevitable Level 7 book expedition will cost.

Point being, there's no such thing as too many bits in this game.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Here's the thing. When are we actually going to have the time to do our own at this point?

This turn, we're focusing on DoA's Sacrament. Next turn, we're probably either going to want to scry for a Level 7 book for Baldomare's friendship quest or have her channel a Lantern Influence so we can study the Moth book (-50 penalty, remember?). So the earliest I can see it being feasible to allocate a Baldomare AP and at least 2 Velvet AP to actually finishing the Sacrament is T23. With the additional risk of burning our reroll early and then having to use up Baldomare's AP again for a fresh Influence for the next turn.

Or, we could just take Baldomare's Sacrament this turn, hit SH5, and get a Sacrament power already. It's not even like her Sacrament is unlikely to be interesting! Bird's all-but-stated before that her Sacrament will let us find out more about the history of the setting, which is something we've only really seen glimpses of through the Doors.

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Our Sacrament takes a whopping 1 Additional AP for something I personally find more interesting than Baldomare's. Plus it can get us Scraps! It's not like we need to find a Level 7 Book immediately either, especially since we can have Jade do the scrying instead. She's pretty good at it.

Ish?

I don't know if Biedde is well suited to that, yes. But, currently the plan with Lightcatcher v2 has... No bits spent. We are at, what, 405 bits currently? Ignoring the commission this turn, Next turn we can expect 160 monthly salary and 50 from Rarity, pay Biedde 60 for sticking around... 550 bits, give or take. Forges Redemption costs 20, say an extra 40 for Reagents. Baldomare's Sacrament, an extra 40. So, 450, so we could send 3 on BtRC pt 3 and scry it for an extra 30 and be left at 60 at turn end.

Considering that is the earliest that could be expected to gun for All In, but is not likely, I only really see Rarity's commission this turn needed if we are planning on going All In at end of next turn. Otherwise, we are in a healthy spot for bits.

Biedde even finding anything, or simply trying to find something that we know is our there, I see as more helpful.

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A Max Level Forge Reagent costs more than 40 Bits. I want to say it's 80? But I don't quite remember, we've never made a Level 4 Reagent before after all. And given the penalty for failing an FR is a Wound, we really want to stack our chances to the max.

 

[Bakkasama]

Keep her on it, please.

But for a real reason, she wants to help, we can check on her with the FO and she also could benefit from feeling useful by doing an action she can succeed at.

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Jade: This is what I discovered about Harmony by researching Memory of Light.
Velvet: Wow, this is very interesting! Mostly useless since I will be reaching for Glory in two months, but interesting nonetheless!

I am not saying that will necessarily be the case, since something related to Luna and Celestia might help with the whole Daybreaker thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if whatever she finds is found too late to be relevant since we are a few turns from endgame.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

It was in a different dimension.

That kinda counts as warded as default, and means NOTHING in regard to other defense.

That said, yes, SH is likely to help, but we can do without if necessary.

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I have zero doubts the key to a Name's Prison is behind more protections than just being in another dimension. I do not want to underestimate the difficulty of securing our objective, since extra goals are supposed to be more difficult than primaries, and the Key is an extra goal we set for ourself rather than being the thing DoA is sending us over for.

If it wasn't for Celestia's Lantern I totally would be having Mareinette Sacrament us too.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Jade: This is what I discovered about Harmony by researching Memory of Light.
Velvet: Wow, this is very interesting! Mostly useless since I will be reaching for Glory in two months, but interesting nonetheless!

I am not saying that will necessarily be the case, since something related to Luna and Celestia might help with the whole Daybreaker thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if whatever she finds is found too late to be relevant since we are a few turns from endgame.

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I just want someone dedicated to figuring out Harmony post-gane. Velvet kind of dropped the ball a little on being a bridge between Glory and Harmony, but we've rapidly shaped Jade into being a fine... emissary? Liason? We'll figure out the Title once we are an Hour, point is Jade is the pony with the most first-hand knowledge on Harmony amongst our Lore ponies and we'll need someone to coordinate between Velvet and the Shining Core of the World in the Wake. The Alicorns will be too busy running said Wake for the job.

 

[spiderhellian]

No thanks, I'm not going to enable the use of pony sacrifices.

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Given the nature of ALL IN, I really feel we should strongly consider befriending Mareinette. Having another effective combatant and a strong tank, going up against ~Discord, seems like it'll be really valuable. Her Lores will be as well, when Heart is our weakest (and likely still will be).

 

[Sveta08]

Point being, there's no such thing as too many bits in this game.

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Grumble.
Agreed, but grumble.

I will voice my concern here for Winter Name and Wendigos, but I can also see pushing it now is not the time or helpful.

So, I grumble, but will agree with the current plan.

 

[DelightedOne]

Jade: This is what I discovered about Harmony by researching Memory of Light.
Velvet: Wow, this is very interesting! Mostly useless since I will be reaching for Glory in two months, but interesting nonetheless!

I am not saying that will necessarily be the case, since something related to Luna and Celestia might help with the whole Daybreaker thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if whatever she finds is found too late to be relevant since we are a few turns from endgame.

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Meh. A Harmony Victory may not be possible anymore, but getting some Harmony in Velvet's hooves can't do anything bad.

Maybe we could even find a way to counter the Stains or get rid of them while doing some Harmony stuff.

 

[Nevermort]

Looking at plans first of all I am not ok with Mareinette further traumatizing Diamond Tiara who is our daughter's friend. Theoretically we already have enough relationship levels with Cheerilee and Filthy Rich to Moth them in case of emergency.

If we have free social in next few turns we can rise Spoiled to necessary level (takes one action). In fact Moth book is more pressing issue, since QM said that after deciphering Knock book we would not have enough time for other actions, and I don't see why it would not be true for Moth book as well. Thus if we suddenly learn that Celestia is on the verge of Lantern 4 we would have time to Leash close friend and gain Moth sacrament but would not have time to decipher book.

And if people still insist on sending Mareinette to Spoiled then at least consider doing Filthy Rich too, he being present last time at least showed some care for Diamond and we are almost certain to hit close friends levels with Spoiled regardless which with Leash would be enough.

Also I support casting Lantern influence to study books and in case it helps with DoA sacrament.
If possible I would also like to speak with Uncle Steppes too.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Looking at plans first of all I am not ok with Mareinette further traumatizing Diamond Tiara who is our daughter's friend. Theoretically we already have enough relationship levels with Cheerilee and Filthy Rich to Moth them in case of emergency.

If we have free social in next few turns we can rise Spoiled to necessary level (takes one action). In fact Moth book is more pressing issue, since QM said that after deciphering Knock book we would not have enough time for other actions, and I don't see why it would not be true for Moth book as well. Thus if we suddenly learn that Celestia is on the verge of Lantern 4 we would have time to Leash close friend and gain Moth sacrament but would not have time to decipher book.

And if people still insist on sending Mareinette to Spoiled then at least consider doing Filthy Rich too, he being present last time at least showed some care for Diamond and we are almost certain to hit close friends levels with Spoiled regardless which with Leash would be enough.

Also I support casting Lantern influence to study books and in case it helps with DoA sacrament.
If possible I would also like to speak with Uncle Steppes too.

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[] Won't Someone Think of the Fillies?
-[X] Do not leash anypony.
-[X] [DETECTIVES] The dangers in the dark come from outside of Ponykind as well. Listen to the rumors. Study the myths. Look for the threats from without. (Search for Expedition Sites for your later consideration. Additionally, keep an ear on the ground for other "foreign" threats)
-[X] [CONSTABLES] (FOLLOW UP) Your detectives have given you a very long list, of ponies and places involved in the attempt against your life. Round them up and put them all in jail, before this trail goes cold.
-[X] [COMMISSIONER] The Lunar Bureau is not the only recently-minted institution in Equestria. Try to contact the others.
--[X] Eclipse(?), and Midday Dew.
-[X] [JADE] Research "A Memory of Light" (Current progress 0/100, uses Learning and LANTERN)
-[X] [BALDOMARE] Channel an Influence. (Lantern)
-[X] [AXE] Ask for a Knock lesson.
-[X] [MAREINETTE] Channel an Influence. (Grail)
-[X] [SELENE] Soothe the night. (Her Winter realization. Unknown effects, if any.)
-[X] You would like for somepony to search for books…
--[X] In Ponyville, and its… great assortments of libraries? (HEART, FORGE)
-[X] Three extra Velvet actions! (Costs 9 follower actions)

A variant just for you, for while I think SH will be of more use past the Mirror your points about the Moth Book and Tiara's sanity are valid.

 

[Rafuki22]

[] Plan Spreading Ourselves Thin Always Gets Us Punished

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I'm kinda fine with this, but why not the detectives in the Proto-Hive?

No thanks, I'm not going to enable the use of pony sacrifices.

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Look, we have 2 pre-All In options with Mareinette, kill her or befriend her(otherwise like sveta i fear what could happen, Biedde too but that's a little less pressing), and one of them is a lot easier than the other and to befriend her we need a prisoner, we can even capture a criminal if need be.

Trying to be squeaky clean with what we have done, and what we probably will do, seems counterproductive for our success.

I'm not saying to disregard morality, i'm just saying to do what we have alredy done and what we will probably continue to do, our best, sometimes at a price.

Of course, even with all this said, luck will still be the main deciding factor.

Maybe we don't need the Grail/Lantern/Winter Sacrament, but really, we don't know, and we probably do.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

I'm kinda fine with this, but why not the detectives in the Proto-Hive?

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Detectives already scoped out the Proto-Hive, so I thought the Follow-up would be looking abroad for even more Changelings abroad, rather than looking at the Proto-Hive again. I find being privy to additional threats is better than that.

 

[Nevermort]

[] Won't Someone Think of the Fillies?
-[] Do not leash anypony.
-[] [DETECTIVES] The dangers in the dark come from outside of Ponykind as well. Listen to the rumors. Study the myths. Look for the threats from without. (Search for Expedition Sites for your later consideration. Additionally, keep an ear on the ground for other "foreign" threats)
-[] [CONSTABLES] (FOLLOW UP) Your detectives have given you a very long list, of ponies and places involved in the attempt against your life. Round them up and put them all in jail, before this trail goes cold.
-[] [COMMISSIONER] The Lunar Bureau is not the only recently-minted institution in Equestria. Try to contact the others.
--[] Eclipse(?), and Midday Dew.
-[] [JADE] Research "A Memory of Light" (Current progress 0/100, uses Learning and LANTERN)
-[] [BALDOMARE] Channel an Influence. (Lantern)
-[] [AXE] Ask for a Knock lesson.
-[] [MAREINETTE] Channel an Influence. (Grail)
-[] [SELENE] Soothe the night. (Her Winter realization. Unknown effects, if any.)
-[] You would like for somepony to search for books…
--[] In Ponyville, and its… great assortments of libraries? (HEART, FORGE)
-[] Three extra Velvet actions! (Costs 9 follower actions)

A variant just for you, for while I think SH will be of more use past the Mirror your points about the Moth Book and Tiara's sanity are valid.

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I like it but why not use Leash to get one more action? I don't think Leash is very objectionable thing right now, not when people discuss eating ponies.
Speaking of which @OurLadyOfWires Cheerilee is also at close friend level, should not we have option to Leash her too?

Look, we have 2 pre-All In options with Mareinette, kill her or befriend her(otherwise like sveta i fear what could happen, Biedde too but that's a little less pressing), and one of them is a lot easier than the other and to befriend her we need a prisoner, we can even capture a criminal if need be.

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To have future Hour Velvet to attain taste for pony flash? No thank you. Plus I am not big fun of body horror and hiding new appendages is a bother even if they are retractable.
Beside befiending and killing there is also sealing option. Find some very secured location and throw Mareinette there, or maybe DoA world behind mirror would suffice.Or DoA chains.

 

[Greymere]

Look, we have 2 pre-All In options with Mareinette, kill her or befriend her(otherwise like sveta i fear what could happen, Biedde too but that's a little less pressing), and one of them is a lot easier than the other and to befriend her we need a prisoner, we can even capture a criminal if need be.

Trying to be squeaky clean with what we have done, and what we probably will do, seems counterproductive for our success.

I'm not saying to disregard morality, i'm just saying to do what we have alredy done and what we will probably continue to do, our best, sometimes at a price.

Of course, even with all this said, luck will still be the main deciding factor.

Maybe we don't need the Grail/Lantern/Winter Sacrament, but really, we don't know, and we probably do.

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Until you can answer me exactly why taking her Sacrament "ties the knot" and what she gets out of us staining our Grail with her alukite-ness, and that answer isn't somehow inherently corruptive, it is categorically not an option for me.

I would rather take our chances trying to kill her once we run out of refreshes.

 

[Rafuki22]

Detectives already scoped out the Proto-Hive, so I thought the Follow-up would be looking abroad for even more Changelings abroad, rather than looking at the Proto-Hive again. I find being privy to additional threats is better than that.

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Having into account how focused Celestia is in Changelings, continuing investigating them seems like a cautious choice, and if we are lucky Luna's Winter will calm her down somewhat.

To have future Hour Velvet to attain taste for pony flash?

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1. That's why the other Sacraments exist, to balance her.
2. I doubt that the influence will be that great.

Beside befiending and killing there is also sealing option.

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You make it sound so easy...

I would rather take our chances trying to kill her.

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Because taking risks ends so well.

If we are going to always assume the worst case scenario we might as well take the Wolf offer, it would be faster and less risky that way.