Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Alternatively, we could spend our Flex AP on socialing Cheerilee or Filthy to try and gain another Confidante. I'd err towards Filthy to really lock him in since Mareinette should by all rights be focusing most of her attention on Spoiled Rich. That'll probably be more impactful than upping Rarity one stage of Lore.

 

[ses]

We can't double up Mareinette and Velvet socials, so Filthy is out. And I don't think getting Cheerilee this turn is really going to be better than getting Rarity up to Seeker, when this is our last chance for a while to do so as we could double commission after this. Also it'll be nice to go into the Cheerilee social with a Grail AotL next turn, as getting her to confidant seems likely to be a Grail roll rather than a unique quest. We are by no means guaranteed to confidante her, the way we're guaranteed to level up Rarity.

The timing is just so good right now for teaching rarity, it'd be a real shame to miss out on it. That's another at least 50 bits over the next three turns until her next non-commission turn, and bits are the single biggest limiter on our faction even more than AP since we have so many expeditions we need to pay for. How long has BTRC3 been sitting around waiting for us to scrounge up the bits to go there? Let alone the fact we might have to pay for two long expeditions next turn potentially for Name befriending.

 

[spiderhellian]

There would be something nice to spending time with Rarity. I know at this point she is too good at making bits for us to really devote her actions to anything else. With the rare exception of an expedition. But she is such a delightful character and one threaded through Velvet's story for so long.

Hmmm.

* Steppe's fleeting is a mystery box, what a classic. Probably a decent one?
* Study… gets us a Moth 3 artefact and some leeway on other failures? Not bad, Moth is one of our weaker states, for some peculiar reason there's no Name to help us out with it.
* Mansus exploration? Huh, with an action we could find the Edge Name if they are in Stairways. That's tempting, just because man oh man I want to find the last Name!

 

[Shaper47]

If we want bits we should Teach Rarity to grail4/forge2 and get something like +10 bits/turn plus another 10+ bits per commission. This actually advances our gameplan instead of spending our AP to exert control over something that was going to give us goodies either way.

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Teaching Rarity is a waste of a Lantern influence.

 

[Sveta08]

Eh!

Two Study Actions
Edge Sacrament
Summoning the Forge Name
and social for Soft

So, a flex slot. Most options that could fill that spot are... good in my books.

 

[Flaregamer82253]

There would be something nice to spending time with Rarity. I know at this point she is too good at making bits for us to really devote her actions to anything else. With the rare exception of an expedition. But she is such a delightful character and one threaded through Velvet's story for so long.

Hmmm.

* Steppe's fleeting is a mystery box, what a classic. Probably a decent one?
* Study… gets us a Moth 3 artefact and some leeway on other failures? Not bad, Moth is one of our weaker states, for some peculiar reason there's no Name to help us out with it.
* Mansus exploration? Huh, with an action we could find the Edge Name if they are in Stairways. That's tempting, just because man oh man I want to find the last Name!

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Teaching Rarity is a waste of a Lantern influence.

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This actually sounds like a good way to use our double influences if we can spare the action. I was just considering how we are 1 Lantern scrap short of being sacrament ready, so it may be a good idea to visit the Mares in the Garden of Light or Baldomare to try and grab an extra scrap. The Concursum may also be a good idea. It was the "Heart" of the Mansus, so I'm thinking this may be the only other place in the Mansus we can get Heart scraps. There's also the potential of us getting a Moth scrap there with its "dead ends" which would mean we don't need to read the book and can focus on studying more artifacts to sell off.

I can definitely get on board with a Mansus action.

 

[Nevermort]

The timing is just so good right now for teaching rarity, it'd be a real shame to miss out on it. That's another at least 50 bits over the next three turns until her next non-commission turn, and bits are the single biggest limiter on our faction even more than AP since we have so many expeditions we need to pay for. How long has BTRC3 been sitting around waiting for us to scrounge up the bits to go there? Let alone the fact we might have to pay for two long expeditions next turn potentially for Name befriending.

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50 bits is nothing compared to money we can get from studying more artifacts and selling them. Even Steppes FO potentially more lucrative as without our input we can't be sure if he will want to go with monetary reward at all.

 

[Greymere]

The constant fear of the personal sacrament is a little much. I'd understand if it was the third, but it's the 2nd which should be doable with the reroll.

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Considering that it explicitly gets harder every step, it's going to be at least DC 120 which is only a 58% success chance even with the reroll. If it's DC 130 (going in a 110/130/150 pattern), it's only a 44% chance of success.

People are leery about doing our personal Sacrament w/o an active Influence for a reason.

 

[AuthorTransient]

Actually considering making a plan where either Velvet either casts the End is Beautiful or scrys and takes an expedition to kill Windy.

 

[Solace2117]

Considering that it explicitly gets harder every step, it's going to be at least DC 120 which is only a 58% success chance even with the reroll. If it's DC 130 (going in a 110/130/150 pattern), it's only a 44% chance of success.

People are leery about doing our personal Sacrament w/o an active Influence for a reason.

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Eh, I think people overestimate the danger. I think Ourladyofwires commented at one point, it has some risk, but not disaster strikes, everything goes wrong. I think it could be worth the risk considering the plans this turn, but honestly don't expect much traction. Really just want to finally make progress on at least one of the SH sacraments. Not really a hill I'm going to die on this turn, everyone was more committed to Edge and lantern influences this turn. Next turn though…

 

[ses]

Eh, I think people overestimate the danger. I think Ourladyofwires commented at one point, it has some risk, but not disaster strikes, everything goes wrong. I think it could be worth the risk considering the plans this turn, but honestly don't expect much traction. Really just want to finally make progress on at least one of the SH sacraments. Not really a hill I'm going to die on this turn, everyone was more committed to Edge and lantern influences this turn. Next turn though…

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I agree on people overestimating the danger but it's still crazy to do attempts without a max SH influence considering how much of a difference it is. I think we're fine doing SH(Baldomare) on Turn 23 then do both of our Personal SH actions on Turn 24 and commit to finishing it then with the influence. Sad that it gets delayed a turn due to Jade failing her scry attempt, but such is life.

We're talking about +54 vs +104 here, and it's not like we'll finish this turn anyway.

 

[Solace2117]

I agree on people overestimating the danger but it's still crazy to do attempts without a max SH influence considering how much of a difference it is. I think we're fine doing SH(Baldomare) on Turn 23 then do both of our Personal SH actions on Turn 24 and commit to finishing it then with the influence. Sad that it gets delayed a turn due to Jade failing her scry attempt, but such is life.

We're talking about +54 vs +104 here, and it's not like we'll finish this turn anyway.

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And that's all fair, I just don't want to get the "I know we're level 5 and under a max influence, but what if we use the re roll early it's too risky" argument going. I'm being a little pedantic, but sometimes we get like that. Really the fact we're studying the lantern artifact opens up others to help with scrying which frees Baldomare up for sacrament help over the next few turns. Main reason I was fine waiting a turn.

 

[ses]

And that's all fair, I just don't want to get the "I know we're level 5 and under a max influence, but what if we use the re roll early it's too risky" argument going. I'm being a little pedantic, but sometimes we get like that. Really the fact we're studying the lantern artifact opens up others to help with scrying which frees Baldomare up for sacrament help over the next few turns. Main reason I was fine waiting a turn.

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Oh I agree. If we hadn't wasted an AP last turn on snekrament that ended up going nowhere I would absolutely have wanted to attempt to finish our Personal SH when we had the Influence. But as is I think even the risk-averse people in the thread are willing to accept committing to finishing in one turn once we have SH 5 and max Influence (literally impossibly good bonus only allowed by our Brand)

 

[DelightedOne]

Eh, I think people overestimate the danger. I think Ourladyofwires commented at one point, it has some risk, but not disaster strikes, everything goes wrong.

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The danger of the action itself isn't really the problem for me but what cleaning up the mess may cost or even the chance of messing up the cronogram this close to a turning point(Velvet either gets to Glory and wins or dies and we go play with the Wolf worshipers).

 

[Solace2117]

The danger of the action itself isn't really the problem for me but what cleaning up the mess may cost or even the chance of messing up the cronogram this close to a turning point(Velvet either gets to Glory and wins or dies and we go play with the Wolf worshipers).

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I was more tempted before we essentially committed to the Edge sacrament. Just got on a tangent.Leaning towards Steppe's, but we'll see what the options look like. Don't think whatever we choose is very high stakes.

 

[ses]

I'm fine with Teach Rarity, Study Artifacts, or even Cheerilee, though I most prefer Rarity, but very much against wasting our AP on Steppes FO. Haven't we learned the lesson at this point about wasting all our AP taking every single FleetOp that comes across us, even when they're obviously skippable? Customizing the reward is not as good as actually advancing our gameplan and getting important work done and getting the gift without an AP spent. How likely is customizing the gift going to be worth an entire extra AP over autopicked perks? Especially when we don't exactly have a history of the best judgment on perk selections in similar past situations.

 

[Rafuki22]

Especially when we don't exactly have a history of the best judgment on perk selections in similar past situations.

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I don't think that teaching Rarity or socialing Cheerilee is better than customizing Steppes reward, the benefits the former two options would give probably aren't better than the latter option, well, maybe making Cheerilee a confidant is, but that can be done latter, Steppes reward is for one turn only.

 

[ses]

I don't think that teaching Rarity or socialing Cheerilee is better than customizing Steppes reward, the benefits the former 2 options would give probably aren't better than the latter option.

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I don't expect customizing Steppes reward to get us literally anything. Either we end up picking the options we would have gotten anyway and are down an AP for nothing, or we end up picking options that ultimately benefit us less than we would have gotten on autopick. I'm not looking forward to looking at a wall of vaguely described options all with (???) next to their descriptions describing their consequences and then inevitably "picking wrong" at the cost of an AP. I'll just take the guaranteed benefits for the AP instead.

As for "one turn only"... so is teaching Rarity effectively. If we double commission after this then this turn is our last real chance to teach her and have it pay dividends. And just because FleetOps are fleeting doesn't mean it's the right idea to take them. We've wasted... a lot of AP chasing every fleetop that comes our way and a lot of the time got nothing for it.

Advancing our gameplan and resources gives us more slack later so we get forced into a corner forced into picking our poison less often.

 

[Nevermort]

I don't expect customizing Steppes reward to get us literally anything. Either we end up picking the options we would have gotten anyway and are down an AP for nothing, or we end up picking options that ultimately benefit us less than we would have gotten on autopick. I'm not looking forward to looking at a wall of vaguely described options all with (???) next to their descriptions describing their consequences and then inevitably "picking wrong" at the cost of an AP. I'll just take the guaranteed benefits for the AP instead.

As for "one turn only"... so is teaching Rarity effectively. If we double commission after this then this turn is our last real chance to teach her and have it pay dividends. And just because FleetOps are fleeting doesn't mean it's the right idea to take them. We've wasted... a lot of AP chasing every fleetop that comes our way and a lot of the time got nothing for it.

Advancing our gameplan and resources gives us more slack later so we get forced into a corner forced into picking our poison less often.

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For me it is Study Artifacts>Uncle>Cheerily>Rarity

Artifacts give us most amount of bit if we sell them, while I consider Steppes option likely second most lucrative coupled with chance to talk with uncle a bit more maybe last time. Cheerily is additional AP although I am worried that we may not hit necessary DC. Rarity is just 50 or so bits. If we actually were doing something with her Grail levels then rerolls would have been useful, but as she is bound to do commissions then meh.

 

[DelightedOne]

I don't expect customizing Steppes reward to get us literally anything. Either we end up picking the options we would have gotten anyway and are down an AP for nothing, or we end up picking options that ultimately benefit us less than we would have gotten on autopick. I'm not looking forward to looking at a wall of vaguely described options all with (???) next to their descriptions describing their consequences and then inevitably "picking wrong" at the cost of an AP. I'll just take the guaranteed benefits for the AP instead.

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Still frustrated about the Wedding choices?

While I agree with the Steppes FO being something we can let go I wouldn't say it is as... unrewarding as you think it would be.

At the very least, we could get a bunch of Bits.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

I say we take our flex AP and use it to punch Tall Tale proto-Hive in its panicking Changeling face. I am tired of Velvet avoiding all-out assaults on enemy bases. She missed out on the big Hive, and was physically incapable of going on the expedition against Copper. Let her ruin her enemies with merciless Lantern and keen-cutting Edge just this once, as a treat.

 

[ses]

I say we take our flex AP and use it to punch Tall Tale proto-Hive in its panicking Changeling face. I am tired of Velvet avoiding all-out assaults on enemy bases. She missed out on the big Hive, and was physically incapable of going on the expedition against Copper. Let her ruin her enemies with merciless Lantern and keen-cutting Edge just this once, as a treat.

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Rules-As-Written we can't afford the train ticket unless we're allowed to expense it to the Bureau lmao. If QM lets us join in the assault by spending a Velvet AP i'd slam that button so hard, but I doubt we'll be allowed to. We spent our commissioner action and we're not allowed to spend Velvet AP to double up on bureau stuff.

Imagine the Bureau rolling up to find a mountain of bug corpses and Velvet Covers standing there, covered in guts. She turns to the constables and says "Please... I need you to validate my parking."

 

[Rafuki22]

I say we take our flex AP and use it to punch Tall Tale proto-Hive in its panicking Changeling face. I am tired of Velvet avoiding all-out assaults on enemy bases. She missed out on the big Hive, and was physically incapable of going on the expedition against Copper. Let her ruin her enemies with merciless Lantern and keen-cutting Edge just this once, as a treat.

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I'm willing, depending on the plan and if we are going to do the Edge Sacrament in the same turn.

But is that allowed?

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

We can't double up Mareinette and Velvet socials, so Filthy is out.

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Ah, I forgot about the no-doubling rule. Unfortunate.

Rules-As-Written we can't afford the train ticket unless we're allowed to expense it to the Bureau lmao. If QM lets us join in the assault by spending a Velvet AP i'd slam that button so hard, but I doubt we'll be allowed to. We spent our commissioner action and we're not allowed to spend Velvet AP to double up on bureau stuff.

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Why must you (potentially) crush my dreams with rules so callously?

 

[ses]

Happy MOTHers day

 

[ses]

MOTH: 2 manuscripts post-Sacrament
LANTERN: 2 manuscripts post-Sacrament
FORGE: 1 manuscript
EDGE: 3 manuscripts post-Sacrament, or 3 manuscripts without sacrament and the Edge 1 book
WINTER: 3 manuscripts post-Sacrament
HEART: 2 manuscripts post Heart 4
GRAIL: 2 manuscripts post Grail 5
SECRET HISTORIES: 3 manuscripts post-Sacrament
KNOCK: Read the level 5 Knock book and level 2 Knock book

Made a list of each Lore and what it would take to get our Library level to 3 from our current point. If it says N manuscripts post our next level, you can assume it takes 1 extra manuscript to reach level 3 Library without the levelup. It also assumes we will read the Moth 5 book this turn. I would have included any points where the current baby books we have sitting around would have possibly knocked down the number of manuscripts, but the only case was "fail Biedde duel and be willing to make three manuscripts". Knock is attainable with the current book inventory (or two manuscripts).

So it looks like the only Lores that can even have a reasonable option of hitting a Library level 3 in the short term are Moth, Knock, and Forge, unless we start getting more Level 5 books from expeditions. 3 manuscripts to hit Edge 3 or SH 3 is absolutely brutal and I really doubt we're going to do that even with the Lapdog. Sadly we can't hit Knock and Forge 3 with a single Lapdog writing action: we're 1 knock level short without reading the Knock 5 book. Spending a Lapdog action for Moth 3 or Forge 3 seems very possible though.

 

[Greymere]

Made a list of each Lore and what it would take to get our Library level to 3 from our current point. If it says N manuscripts post our next level, you can assume it takes 1 extra manuscript to reach level 3 Library without the levelup. It also assumes we will read the Moth 5 book this turn. I would have included any points where the current baby books we have sitting around would have possibly knocked down the number of manuscripts, but the only case was "fail Biedde duel and be willing to make three manuscripts". Knock is attainable with the current book inventory (or two manuscripts).

So it looks like the only Lores that can even have a reasonable option of hitting a Library level 3 in the short term are Moth, Knock, and Forge, unless we start getting more Level 5 books from expeditions. 3 manuscripts to hit Edge 3 or SH 3 is absolutely brutal and I really doubt we're going to do that even with the Lapdog. Sadly we can't hit Knock and Forge 3 with a single Lapdog writing action: we're 1 knock level short without reading the Knock 5 book. Spending a Lapdog action for Moth 3 or Forge 3 seems very possible though.

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We can technically compensate for quality with quantity, when it comes to the Secret Library, so even if expeditions give us lower level books they can still make progress. Especially since it's not like we really benefit from having a Level 5 book filling up Level 1 or Level 2 slots compared to a Level 4- book.

Also I think some of the math may be a little off, but I haven't checked it yet, so I guess I'll go do that.

Edit: Okay, went and checked. This is what I got:

Spoiler

MOTH: 2 Lapdog manuscripts, post Sacrament
Current: Level 1 ( [1/1] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ([1/1] + [4/2] + [4/3 + 5/3]) *assumes Moth 5 book is read

Lantern: 2 Lapdog manuscripts, post-Sacrament
Current: Level 2 ( [Baldomare] + [6/2] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Baldomare] + [4/2] + [6/3 + 4/3] )

Forge: 1 normal manuscript
Current: Level 2 ( [Cherenkolt] + [4/2] + [3/3 + 3/3] ) *adjusted for Cherenkolt
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Cherenkolt] + [4/2] + [3/3 + 3/3 + 4/3] )

Edge: 2 Lapdog manuscripts + Edge 1 book (@ Lv. 5) or 2 Lapdog manuscripts + 1 normal manuscript (@ Lv. 4)
Current: Level 2 ( [Biedde] + [3/2 + 1/2] ) *adjusted for Biedde
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Biedde] + [3/2 + 1/2] + [4/3 + 4/3 + 1/3] ) *@ Lv. 5
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Biedde] + [3/2 + 1/2] + [3/3 + 3/3 + 4/3] ) *@ Lv. 4

Winter: 4 Lapdog manuscripts (@ Lv. 5) or 2 Lapdog manuscripts + 2 normal manuscripts (@ Lv. 4)
Current: Level 1 ( [2/1] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [2/1] + [4/2] + [3/3 + 3/3 + 4/3] ) *pre-Sacrament
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [2/1] + [4/2] + [4/3 + 4/3 + 4/3] ) *post-Sacrament

Heart: 2 Lapdog manuscripts (post-Heart 4)
Current: Level 2 ( [Mareinette] + [2/2 + 2/2] + [3/3] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 Level 2 ( [Mareinette] + [2/2 + 2/2] + [3/3 + 3/3 + 3/3] )

Grail: 2 Lapdog manuscripts (@ Lv. 5)
Current: Level 2 ( [Mareinette] + [2/2 + 3/2] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Mareinette] + [4/2] + [3/3 + 2/3 + 4/3])

Secret Histories: 2 Lapdog manuscripts + 1 normal manuscript (@ Lv. 5)
Current: Level 1 ( [Baldomare] + [3/2] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Baldomare] + [4/2] + [4/3 + 5/3] + [3/4] )

Knock: Read Knock 5 + Knock 2 books
Current: Level 2 ( [Daughter-of-Axes] + [1/2 + 3/2] + [2/3] )
Manuscript'd: Level 3 ( [Daughter-of-Axes] + [1/2 + 3/2] + [2/3 + 2/3 + 5/3] )

Or TL;DR - mostly matches up with what @ses calculated except for in Edge, which would be slightly easier than initially calculated. Possibly due to Biedde boost not being accounted for, maybe. Idk. And Winter is a bit different.

Of course, technically our Names aren't providing their bonuses yet, but they will at some point as long as we make sure to keep building up the Bureau's Lores (hinthint nudgenudge).

Also @ses, even if it doesn't get us immediately to Knock 3, I would still think that lapdogging Forge + Knock would be a good idea. It still gets Forge to Level 3 once the Bureau can benefit from Weight of Presence, and it frees up a reading slot later on that we can spend on something more productive than a Knock 2 book (so at some point have a Knock 5, Edge 1, ??? study action). We could also split Forge/Edge instead for similar reasons, effectively replacing reading the Edge 1 book with half of a lapdog action, and would keep the Knock books "together" in terms of when they'd be getting read (i.e. study action would be Knock 5, Knock 2, ??? instead).

 

[ses]

Names don't provide bonuses so I didn't include them? Yes if we unlock that functionality that makes Edge easier. Though you forgot that we're getting level 1 manuscripts for lores OTHER than Edge, since we already got our free level 1 edge manuscript.

We don't need Weight of Presence for Forge, a single manuscript plus Institutional Knowledge gets it. The question of whether to put the Edge 1 book or the Knock 2 book in our spare reading action in case we oneshot the Moth book is a question of if you think we'll get Name bonuses to the library or read the Knock 5 book first, and I figure we'll read the Knock 5 book since that wasn't a thing we were told wouldn't happen and would be treated seperately.

I was considering Forge/Edge if (Big if) we do manuscript writing next turn since that gets us to Edge 2 immediately as well as Forge 3.

If we get Name bonuses to the Bureau we don't need the Knock 2 book at all: the free level 1 manuscript from introducing it to the Bureau plus the Knock 5 book plus DoA's bonus gets us there. We need the Knock 2 book if we don't get DoA bonus.

You have one too many Winter manuscripts needed because of the free level 1 manuscript from introducing them to the Bureau

 

[Greymere]

Names don't provide bonuses so I didn't include them? Yes if we unlock that functionality that makes Edge easier. Though you forgot that we're getting level 1 manuscripts for lores OTHER than Edge, since we already got our free level 1 edge manuscript.

We don't need Weight of Presence for Forge, a single manuscript plus Institutional Knowledge gets it. The question of whether to put the Edge 1 book or the Knock 2 book in our spare reading action in case we oneshot the Moth book is a question of if you think we'll get Name bonuses to the library or read the Knock 5 book first, and I figure we'll read the Knock 5 book since that wasn't a thing we were told wouldn't happen and would be treated seperately.

I was considering Forge/Edge if (Big if) we do manuscript writing next turn since that gets us to Edge 2 immediately as well as Forge 3.

If we get Name bonuses to the Bureau we don't need the Knock 2 book at all: the free level 1 manuscript from introducing it to the Bureau plus the Knock 5 book plus DoA's bonus gets us there. We need the Knock 2 book if we don't get DoA bonus.

You have one too many Winter manuscripts needed because of the free level 1 manuscript from introducing them to the Bureau

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Oh so the institutional knowledge books do count? I thought they didn't for some reason. I guess they pretty much replace the Names' Weight of Presence then, since those set the base level to 1, with the possibility of some minor benefit down the road like in the case of Edge and Biedde.

Edit: Re: the Name bonuses, I was kind of assuming that, based on our schedule, by time we're seriously considering spending AP on manuscripts we'll probably have hit the point of Names benefiting the Bureau. I think it's certainly not going to happen next turn with the Grail, Moth, and SH Sacraments looking to be ready to go, and if we keep pushing for Lore improvement we'll be at 5/9 Lores by end of T23 and 7/9 by end of T24, which should be very nearly full Lore-ification of the Bureau.

 

[ses]

Honestly it would be very weird if the QM doesn't let us spend Biedde AP on "Go help train the Bureau in Edge"

Like, Baldomare trained the Cadre in Manehattan after all, and that's more of a stretch than "Have the Name of Edge teach the members of a cult embedded in a law enforcement agency how to fight with Edge". Compared to Baldomare's "get an entire cadre off the ground in 1 Name AP", surely Biedde can do something about getting the Bureau trained in edge?