Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[spiderhellian]

I rather do something like using Pride's bits for a reagent for DoA and save the Knock2Edge1 that we already have for Biedde. That along with the Edge 3 reagent we would probably want to craft would be enough for us or Luna to summon him.

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Yeah, we lose the gifts by the end of this turn, so we essentially have to use the second one either on this reagent if we want to not piss him off. Though we are allowed to do that!

If we're not summoning Biedde or going full SH, I think that's probably worthwhile.

 

[Greymere]

It helps, but as we saw in the last history, there's no guarantee she'll have the same stats. Knock Velvet didn't have the scar. There's also no guarantee that all the danger comes from alt Velvet. Luna wouldn't be able to help with dread or fascination.

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Yes, Knock Velvet didn't have the scar, but Knock Velvet was in our Velvet's body while she was over here. Even realizations don't seem to carry over. Which seems to me to indicate that while the Alt!Velvets are in our History, they're using our statblock which is... not really geared for combat.

Dread/Fascination is, comparatively, pretty easy to deal with actually. From what I remember, they don't 'take effect' until the next turn, and then Velvet rolls at the end of the turn to see if she recovers; Mareinette auto-suceeds on IotH and MitL can be sacrificed to remove a Fascination, so the only major issue from that angle is if we get two Dreads.

I rather do something like using Pride's bits for a reagent for DoA and save the Knock2Edge1 that we already have for Biedde. That along with the Edge 3 reagent we would probably want to craft would be enough for us or Luna to summon him.

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Knock 2/Edge 1 sucks for summoning Biedde though. 2/3rds of the reagent bonus goes toward a roll that we have a less than 1% chance of failing in the first place, considering the reroll.

Edit: Like, seriously. We'd be better off just raising a Torn Risen for Biedde next turn along w/ the Edge 3 reagent and holding on to the Knock 2/Edge 1 reagent for something else. Like, idk, having Jade summon a MitL if we don't summon one this turn (edit: or maybe even if we do ig, if they turn out to be really useful), because between the reagent, the Edge artifact, and the Wrong key that would be fading at the end of T20 anyway, she'd be as good at it as us.

 

[spiderhellian]

Knock 2/Edge 1 sucks for summoning Biedde though. 2/3rds of the reagent bonus goes toward a roll that we have a less than 1% chance of failing in the first place, considering the reroll.

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Nah, we've got a 6.7% chance of failing the Knock piece, including the reroll. Using Edge 3 + Edge 1/Knock 2 we have 93.3% chance on Biedde, which is better than using Edge 3 + a torn risen (admittedly only by 0.4%).

And it's only 4% worse than the ideal, which would be Edge 3 + Edge 2 Knock 1.

 

[Greymere]

Nah, we've got a 6.7% chance of failing the Knock piece, including the reroll. Using Edge 3 + Edge 1/Knock 2 we have 93.3% chance on Biedde, which is better than using Edge 3 + a torn risen (admittedly only by 0.4%).

And it's only 4% worse than the ideal, which would be Edge 3 + Edge 2 Knock 1.

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Ah, my bad. I seem to have gotten his Knock and Moth DCs mixed up. That does make it a fair bit more useful for him, yes.

 

[Solace2117]

Dread/Fascination is, comparatively, pretty easy to deal with actually. From what I remember, they don't 'take effect' until the next turn, and then Velvet rolls at the end of the turn to see if she recovers; Mareinette auto-suceeds on IotH and MitL can be sacrificed to remove a Fascination, so the only major issue from that angle is if we get two Dreads.

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Last time we got fascination it cost 2 actions. There's also a decent chance that if Luna has to stop Alt Velvet she'll have to wound her, which creates other complications.

 

[Pittauro]

Some of it depends on what people want to do with the reagent. I'd rather not do an action for multiple reagents because the action and bit costs. Most of the talk I've seen is using a SH reagent for Jade, but I think the artifact makes her failure chance pretty low.
Also, while Baldomare won't be useful on expeditions, her skill set makes her very useful for scrying. I think we may need that over the next few turns.

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when we talk of rituals, there's two things to keep in mind.

How important it is they do NOT fail

and chance of success.

In and of itself, Jade has a good enough %.

Problem is, we NEED that book by next turn at the latest. We MIGHT find one on frangiclave or canterlot expedition (lvl 5+), but we can't be certain of it.

so, many of us would rather not risk it.

It's like 15% chance of failure or something, for the SH DC. Which yes, is fine, but also this is regarding Name Friendship Quest and duration renewal. If she fails, it could make next turn quite awkward AP-wise. And potentially snowball into Baldomare being desummoned. Again.

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I'm still not 100% sure we made the right choice in allowing her being desummoned the first time, honestly.

We would have had a risk of not teaching Selene, and admittedly having Selene take longer would have been bad. There's even a (probably small) chance it might have had some other consequences, though I doubt it.

THat said, 3 extra actions of Baldomare up to now... they'd have been pretty nice. Though to be fair we would have had to get ANOTHER book in these 3 turns...

Which is totally fair, but there's also no real guarantee she passes the lantern check since we have no clue what the DC will be or that we'll be able to get said book. I'm not completely opposed to the idea of putting it off till next turn, but if we have Baldomare call an influence we are essentially committing to doing both sacrament actions in one turn, unless we want to commit her action to it on two turns.
I've said before I'm hesitant to do it in one turn because of the dangers, but I also worry about people actually being willing to commit. Voters have had a tendency to put it off and I worry will get back into that habit.

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Fact is, we can mitigate Lantern by teaching her, which gives her another +10 AND A REROLL. And wards against scrying aren't exactly common.

and really, my idea is to do this, ideally:

turn 20:

Baldomare: SH influence
Velvet: Sacrament 2
Velvet: Sacrament 3 (if reroll not consumed)
SELENE/GENERAL (let Bird decide who): Guard Velvet, mitigate dangers.

Selene is not under "our" control like the names, so this hypothetical evil Velvet wouldn't be able to use summon bindings to control her.

She can also keep an eye on Velvet while under her Selene disguise, just in case this nega-velvet might want to go for the "Blood of the Outsider".

Way I see it, the dangers are not worse if we do it in two turns than one, as long as we go "if out of rerolls, don't follow up".

Don't worry about it for now.

Also, regarding the conversation about "who do we tell about Luna", the more you think about it the more you realize there isn't much to decide.

All of your Confidantes except Fluttershy (so, well, two out of three) already know about her. And telling trustworthy Fluttershy means telling not-trustworthy Comet, so Velvet won't be doing that. And I won't open a vote to whether you can tell Cadance or not. So, uh, that's basically everyone?

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yeah, that's it.

MAYBE after Fleeting Opportunity with Comet we'll suddenly decide we trust him enough to have him know... but it's a bit unlikely, and we can't predict it anyway. And as you say, telling Fluttershy means Comet will near certainly find out too.

If you're not yet allowing the option of telling Cadance, that's basically everyone. The Names definitely already know, and we currently have nobody else we'd want to tell.

If we somehow got another confidant, or the situation changes in such a way that we might have more reasons to tell Cadance, well, we'll think of it then.

Nah. I've been looking at your side as "Velvet's faction". No need to micromanage resources within your followers. If the need arises, I'll let you know.

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It would have been weird for you to go "leave follower actions as "general" and I'll pick" and then also go "but specify artifacts and reagents", yeah.

and really, they're minor things, and relatively easy to determine what's optimal. Why would we NOT use the SH artifact, for example? At best we might end up having to remind you if we notice an obvious better way, but it's likely to come up in discussion before then (like now)

In unrelated notes, I only managed to make the 4.0.2 version of the tally work... Mine doesn't make a result as good as that one. It considers people who vote for several different plans as the same vote, and is generally confusing. I might have to ask someone to tally it, once the vote closes.
Apologies for the inconvenience.

And good day, everyone!

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I'm using the last version (5.0.6)

You should go "Partition by Block" to separate into actual plans. There's two "Plan Pittauro", for some reasons, and those have to be merged.

I think that's enough to have it fairly readable.

There is no lantern check only a matter of higher roll=better result. Jade apparently has a magic bonus of 13 and if we commit to using the free social to raising her Lore levels she'll have a +53 to lantern and a reroll so that should be enough. If there's enough of a concern we could split the reagent between lantern and SH.

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part of me is considering teaching both Jade and Rarity (and MAAAAYBE Fluttershy).

then again, I'm not quite sure what Velvet actions I actually WANT:

I'm thinking

1)Summon Mare in the Light (no reagents). Or maybe Biedde? If we have at least 75% I'm willing to try, really, we can afford failing.
2)Mansus exploration (I'd like 1 point to be for the Church expedition)
3)Comet Talk
4)study books (forge 3, forge 3, unknown)
5)teach lores? ANOTHER Mansus exploration? Social Filthy?

I'd go for the two sacrament actions on turn 20, and probably do outsider search with our followers (Baldomare is 1d100 + 80 on her own, so average 130. Add a Fluttershy and that's already something like 40% of them accomplishing it on their own, more or less. Have Baldomare + Luna doing it, and it's closer to 50 or 55%, depending on her general bonus (20 or 25))

Nah, their point was that for a 15% failure rate, we might as well not spend the AP/money on a reagent for her. I kind of agree, there is little point on spending a bunch of bits now if that leads to our Names twidling their hooves due to lack of bits for rituals or expeditions.

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very worst case, Names can always assist us in our actions or give us lessons.

We still have a need for Lantern, Heart, Knock and to a lesser extent grail lessons, and have (acceptable) ways to get sacraments for at least Lantern and Knock (and unknown for Heart yet).

It helps, but as we saw in the last history, there's no guarantee she'll have the same stats. Knock Velvet didn't have the scar. There's also no guarantee that all the danger comes from alt Velvet. Luna wouldn't be able to help with dread or fascination.

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Dread or Fascination are probably not THAT problematic, I think. we could just incision them, right?

or... could Baldomare deal with Fascination? It's treated as a "MOTH" influence in game, so Baldomare might be able to "subvert it".

 

[Greymere]

Last time we got fascination it cost 2 actions. There's also a decent chance that if Luna has to stop Alt Velvet she'll have to wound her, which creates other complications.

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We also immediately got those actions back because the Master ate our Fascination.

 

[Bakkasama]

Yes, Knock Velvet didn't have the scar, but Knock Velvet was in our Velvet's body while she was over here. Even realizations don't seem to carry over. Which seems to me to indicate that while the Alt!Velvets are in our History, they're using our statblock which is... not really geared for combat.

Dread/Fascination is, comparatively, pretty easy to deal with actually. From what I remember, they don't 'take effect' until the next turn, and then Velvet rolls at the end of the turn to see if she recovers; Mareinette auto-suceeds on IotH and MitL can be sacrificed to remove a Fascination, so the only major issue from that angle is if we get two Dreads.


Knock 2/Edge 1 sucks for summoning Biedde though. 2/3rds of the reagent bonus goes toward a roll that we have a less than 1% chance of failing in the first place, considering the reroll.

Edit: Like, seriously. We'd be better off just raising a Torn Risen for Biedde next turn along w/ the Edge 3 reagent and holding on to the Knock 2/Edge 1 reagent for something else. Like, idk, having Jade summon a MitL if we don't summon one this turn (edit: or maybe even if we do ig, if they turn out to be really useful), because between the reagent, the Edge artifact, and the Wrong key that would be fading at the end of T20 anyway, she'd be as good at it as us.

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It could msybe work for Luna though. It makes so she has to roll a 10 on each DC, so it is only 73% chance of success.
Moth= 30 {Moth} + 20 {general bonus} < 60
Knock= 30 {Knock} + 20 {general bonus} + 20 {reagent} < 80
Edge = 30 {Edge} + 20 {general bonus} + 30 {Edge reagent} + 10 {current reagent} < 100

Of course, if we trained her general bonus this turn it would be 86% chance if success...

Yeah, no way those odds would convince people to vote her over Velvet.

Edit: I rather we do the outsider blood thing this turn. If we are not actively searching for it, we should at least do something to progress that questline.

Like, SH sacrament is nice and I get why people want to getnit as fast as possible, but it is not strictly necessary.

 

[IronHydra]

Thinking more of KnockVelvet it really makes me wonder what she experienced in her brief time in our body, what she thought and realized about the life we live, what sort of response she has to our lore levels, (what it's like to go from being a primarily Knock focused toolset, to having basically all the lores.)

And of course, us.... burning down the Woods

 

[DelightedOne]

Problem is, we NEED that book by next turn at the latest. We MIGHT find one on frangiclave or canterlot expedition (lvl 5+), but we can't be certain of it.

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Imagine if that UNKNOWN LORE book we have turns out to be a level 5 book all along. That would be funny.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

part of me is considering teaching both Jade and Rarity (and MAAAAYBE Fluttershy).

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That would be 3 actions, or a free action and 2 APs, of which only the Jade one is really needed. Fluttershy is covering for our bases and Rarity is taking the commission.

1)Summon Mare in the Light (no reagents). Or maybe Biedde? If we have at least 75% I'm willing to try, really, we can afford failing.
2)Mansus exploration (I'd like 1 point to be for the Church expedition)
3)Comet Talk
4)study books (forge 3, forge 3, unknown)
5)teach lores? ANOTHER Mansus exploration? Social Filthy?

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I suggest the 5th action be a RotT for the evidence, the MitL can do a Outsider search or whatever else we think up.

 

[spiderhellian]

And of course, us.... burning down the Woods

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Don't forget… there's only one Mansus, what happened to the woods happened in every history.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

We would have had a risk of not teaching Selene, and admittedly having Selene take longer would have been bad. There's even a (probably small) chance it might have had some other consequences, though I doubt it.

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I distinctly remember Bird saying that failing the lessons, especially at level three, would have consequences, and those were the hardest lessons to get right if we didn't guaruntee success. It was just never really said what the consequences were, exactly.

 

[Pittauro]

And of course, us.... burning down the Woods

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all Histories share the same Mansus.

Which makes me wonder how THOSE Velvets reacted. And would the Wolves spare them as they're "Velvet"?

Imagine if that UNKNOWN LORE book we have turns out to be a level 5 book all along. That would be funny.

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it's been all but stated to NOT be a lore-book. Which makes me guess it's either a ritual book, an expedition site book, or potentially it might give a trait.

but yeah, it would be pretty funny.

That would be 3 actions, or a free action and 2 APs, of which only the Jade one is really needed. Fluttershy is covering for our bases and Rarity is taking the commission.

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I'm hoping the Realization would make Fluttershy more useful. it's admittedly unlikely.

And it's not like we'll ever have Fluttershy summon Windigoes or cast killing rituals for us, so... I struggle to find uses for her, for the most part.

She might, I suppose, know a good ritual site in the woods? Or she could ask for expedition sites from her animal friends.

I suggest the 5th action be a RotT for the evidence, the MitL can do a Outsider search or whatever else we think up.

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I don't care enough to do it this turn, honestly. I'd have Jade do it next turn maybe, especially if she gets Lantern 4.

I distinctly remember Bird saying that failing the lessons, especially at level three, would have consequences, and those were the hardest lessons to get right if we didn't guaruntee success. It was just never really said what the consequences were, exactly.

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true. All in all it was a high stakes bet we didn't feel confident enough to take, and for good reasons.

but imagine if we took it and won. We'd have had 3 extra actions of Baldomare...

...then again, I'm not quite sure that would have changed much. I suppose we might have scried for the Frangiclave earlier maybe?

Baldomare is strong, but not in the way we needed the last few turns for the most part.

Then again, we could have scried for the Master once they left maybe? That could have revealed Shining's seed earlier...

 

[spiderhellian]

Baldomare is strong, but not in the way we needed the last few turns for the most part.

Then again, we could have scried for the Master once they left maybe? That could have revealed Shining's seed earlier...

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Bird mentioned it's not an accident that all of the Master's machinations happened while Baldomare wasn't in the wake.

It would have been good to have her around.

(I will never stop wishing we had invited the Names to the wedding. And more so that I had argued for that sooner and more forcefully.)

 

[angelsadvocate666]

Honestly, I'm really curious about the need to search the Mansus for a way to extract Outsider Blood. Are we looking for a special ritual space, some kind of artifact, or something else? It's weird that the Mansus would even have anything related to the Outsiders, since they're supposed to be seperate and all.

How would Velvet even know where to go looking? It's not like she's just going up or wandering aimlessly like previous times.

 

[Iustus Vitea]

I'm hoping the Realization would make Fluttershy more useful. it's admittedly unlikely.

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Didn't Bird say there weren't going to be unique realisation powers because it'd be a bitch to keep track of?

Also isn't Fluttershy T3 Winter anyways?

 

[DelightedOne]

And would the Wolves spare them as they're "Velvet"?

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Probably not, the deal with the Wolf seems to be exclusive to our Velvet or at least the Stains are since they are part of her soul.

That actually makes me wonder if the Sons followed Velvet to Knock-Velvet's world or if they stayed like the realizations and how Knock-Velvet reacted to a Stained soul if that is true.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

So you know, I completely forgot that we get to pick two places when we do Mansus actions with AP. Meaning that we could totally start on looking for where to bring Outsider blood and also do the Ruined Church expedition. Or maybe we'll want to explore the Wolf-Woods twice and see if there's anything interesting left over to find. Or some combination of the two.

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I definitely want to explore the Ashlands. It's brand-new! All of it cooked up by Wires in the image of their favorite Hour! Maybe Ash will give us a tour.

I dun wanna go to the wolf woods, it's just Caelid but on fire and with the word "wolf" hyphenated onto everything.

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Caelid is squishy and organic and fungusy.
This will be a land of ashes and torment. Very different.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

I definitely want to explore the Ashlands. It's brand-new! All of it cooked up by Wires in the image of their favorite Hour! Maybe Ash will give us a tour.

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See, the problem is that whenever I hear "the QM made this stuff in the image of their favorite X" I start having war flashbacks. It is not a comforting statement.

That's not even something unique to this quest. It's just a bad sign in general.

 

[Sveta08]

... Huh.

All histories share the same Manus. It is.... The needle of a record. The fulcrum of a balance. The ground.
And all histories are upon it.

So I do wonder. How many other times did Velvet reach for Glory? How many times cultists came before? How many were stopped at the Ruined Chappel, at the Red Castle, at the Drained Grail.....

Because of Mareinnete

And now... The way is open.
In all histories.
Because there is One Manus
And Mareinnete isn't there.



... I think.... It is very important we claim Glory.
Quickly.

 

[des-pair-2]

I doubt people from other Histories are a problem. If only because we really can't do anything about them, so them claiming Glory would be really out of left field.

 

[Pittauro]

Didn't Bird say there weren't going to be unique realisation powers because it'd be a bitch to keep track of?

Also isn't Fluttershy T3 Winter anyways?

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Fluttershy is current Winter 1.

I think Bird said he'd give them some kind of skill or power that makes them useful at lvl 3 (custom action like the names maybe, if not as strong?), but that it's not necessarily related to the Realization power.

So I do wonder. How many other times did Velvet reach for Glory? How many times cultists came before? How many were stopped at the Ruined Chappel, at the Red Castle, at the Drained Grail.....

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How many saw the Tribal Door being broken?

How many saw the Red Church's guest leaving?

How many saw THE WOODS COME TO ASH?

and yeah... how many are aiming for Glory in a different History? And how many have an idea of how to reach it?

...I also wonder... Are Luna and Celestia ONLY in this History? They're OUTSIDERS, not of this world, though they got in through birth. Would they have other selfs in the different histories?

It's already been implied there's no other Discord... does that mean this is the only History in which Discord acted, or that he acted in all of them but they only stopped him HERE and in the others he disappeared for no reason?

and what about Harmony? Does it act in all Histories? What about the Master which we know killed? Did he have other cults in other histories? Probably not, considering he got an in through Jade's near-suicide...

...WHY did Jade's near-suicide bring her to the Master?

 

[Void_510]

Imagine if that UNKNOWN LORE book we have turns out to be a level 5 book all along. That would be funny.

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True, though once we determine that it means we can'tuse it for that. IIRC, the act of translating it to find out what it is means it's been read already.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

...I also wonder... Are Luna and Celestia ONLY in this History? They're OUTSIDERS, not of this world, though they got in through birth. Would they have other selfs in the different histories?

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and what about Harmony? Does it act in all Histories? What about the Master which we know killed? Did he have other cults in other histories? Probably not, considering he got an in through Jade's near-suicide...

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IIRC there was a different Alicorn Princess in Forge!Velvet's History. Or a statue of one at least, but I believe she had indicated that they were a real person she knew in some way. Been a while since I checked the specifics.

 

[spiderhellian]

Does it act in all Histories?

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The existence of alt History Cadence, seemingly untouched by Harmony, suggest it does not… Though it may exist in all histories, its actions in the world do vary?

But that doesn't establish whether Celestia/Luna exist in all histories. Probably, if Discord does..?

 

[Greymere]

Honestly, I'm really curious about the need to search the Mansus for a way to extract Outsider Blood. Are we looking for a special ritual space, some kind of artifact, or something else? It's weird that the Mansus would even have anything related to the Outsiders, since they're supposed to be seperate and all.

How would Velvet even know where to go looking? It's not like she's just going up or wandering aimlessly like previous times.

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The way Bird phrased it made it sound like there might be some kind of... purification process? Extraction? Refinement? Something like that.

 

[Sveta08]

How many saw the Red Church's guest leaving?

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I doubt people from other Histories are a problem. If only because we really can't do anything about them, so them claiming Glory would be really out of left field.

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Every single History we touch in Velvets Secret History Sacrament.
Everytime someone takes hold of Velvets body, they can find out about the her leave.

I don't ask "But What about the Histories?" Just to create a million questions.
I say this because it is.... Because Velvet is touching those histories. Learning from them.
Who is to say the other side isn't doing the same? It's....
I don't have an answer, and there isn't a solution I know to it either. Simply that I feel...

Well, it would be best to claim Glory quickly, yes?"

 

[DelightedOne]

Mareinette also wasn't really an "obstacle", all we had to do was summon her, any half-decent cultist can summon a Mansus-creature and I doubt anyone lesser than that could have gotten that high up in the Mansus, the real obstacle was and still is the lock on Glory, anything else could have been solved with time so the most likely reason for no one ascending(aside from lack of Outsiders) isn't Mareinette blocking the way it's just that no one was trying to get to Glory.

If things went like what happened in this History, with everyone giving up climbing because Glory is unreachable and the only ones who are trying(or rather the only ones that matter) are the ones that know how to break the chains then we have competition, but at least it will be as hard to them as it is to us, but we also have that advantage gifted to us by Ash, anyone that tries to get in the Mansus and isn't on our side is gonna have a nasty surprise.

True, though once we determine that it means we can'tuse it for that. IIRC, the act of translating it to find out what it is means it's been read already.

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Wait, really? Is that how it works?

...I also wonder... Are Luna and Celestia ONLY in this History? They're OUTSIDERS, not of this world, though they got in through birth. Would they have other selfs in the different histories?

It's already been implied there's no other Discord... does that mean this is the only History in which Discord acted, or that he acted in all of them but they only stopped him HERE and in the others he disappeared for no reason?

and what about Harmony? Does it act in all Histories? What about the Master which we know killed? Did he have other cults in other histories? Probably not, considering he got an in through Jade's near-suicide...

...WHY did Jade's near-suicide bring her to the Master?

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Well, considering they were born in this world and are bound by its laws I suspect they do have alternate selves in other Histories, since everything that happens in the present becomes History, the mere act of them existing would ensure they would be in other Histories.

Discord is a proper Outsider, an invader of this world that plays by his own rules, so yeah there is probably only one of him.

Considering the nature of the Histories the Wildhoof Club was certainly not exclusive to this History, but the Master could have chosen to only exist in this one.

Our personal Knock Sacrament text suggests that is one of the ways to break the skin of the world. There is also some connection to suicide and the Temple of the Wheel and considering how that was in the Woods and the Master was the Woods it is not that surprising he met her.

 

[angelsadvocate666]

The way Bird phrased it made it sound like there might be some kind of... purification process? Extraction? Refinement? Something like that.

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I mean, probably, it's just weird because we could have gotten the trait from Selene without going searching for something in the Mansus. Unless that trait isn't the actual trait we need and we have to evolve it into a second trait or something. Or maybe the Outsider were gonna grab has to go through a similar process to what the Alicorns did when entering the world to be usable.

It just… seems like a slightly arbitrary second step? I suppose we'll see the specifics when we do it, it's just weirding me out in the meantime.

Wait, really? Is that how it works?

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It's what happened with the Lantern book, at least. Otherwise we would have used that.