Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[ses]

I think we should explore the Ashen Wastes when we reach Velvet's Phase instead of the Stairways.

Fully exploring a Stairways location requires three Mansus actions. One for the SH roll to discover "Place Description 0/2" and two more hurdle crossing actions. It took 2 mansus actions plus the free explore we got from crossing the door for Place of Sharpness, and it took 3 mansus actions total when we explored Valley of Keys. Spending our single mansus action on an explore in the stairways will be a single Knock+SH roll and nothing else unlocked.

Doing an Explore the Wastes action actually has us roll against whatever hurdle we find immediately, then fully explore the zone we unlock. Plus we can explore two zones if we double the CD.

[Exploring the Blank Plains]

[Roll: 21 + 13 (Diplomacy) + 30 (WINTER, level 3) + 20 (SECRET HISTORIES bonus) + 40 (I HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE) = 124

[SH Re-roll: 85 + 13 (Diplomacy) + 30 (WINTER, level 3) + 20 (SECRET HISTORIES bonus) + 40 (I HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE) = 188]

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Blank Plains exploration was Winter Knowledge+SH Application... the Ashen Wastes are probably Edge Knowledge+SH Application and we'll be wearing an Edge Influence. We have a good chance of getting a double explore in the Wastes this turn. Plus we'll get the zones explored immediately. Yes the Wolf zones probably do not have benefits we'd like to use compared to the stairways but we're not getting anything from the Stairways this turn anyway and I feel we've been taught painful lessons about always exploring the highest zone possible instead of exhaustively searching the bottom and moving upwards (we missed out on the anti-changeling summon and kicked off half the plot because of the lack of it, then we almost died because we took a high mansus expedition instead of doing completionism on the lower floors)

Since we're not going to commit a Velvet AP to mansus exploration no matter what, we should just explore the wastes for now.

Also, in terms of actual locations we're likely to find if we do so.... Eclipse is exploring a "Maze" in an attempt to climb towards the blank door, which we learned about in the Unknown Kadath update. That sounds like a Wastes location that can use Lantern! They unlocked that location specifically by sleeping in front of a Lantern 6 artifact, but we can probably find it with exploration and SH and influences. Maybe even get that Lantern scrap we're missing for Sacrament that would save us a critical Baldomare action on turn 24, and allow SH Influence for personal SH as well as Lantern Sacrament on turn 24 as her first befriended double action! Also we might run into an Eclipse member and actually gain info or an in with them instead of a brick wall from the cold approach!

 

[Shaper47]

Excuse me, what monopoly?

No, seriously. Only one I could think off is organized crime monopoly, but while prominent in the criminal underworld I doubt Uncle actually achieved it and it certainly not covered by Royal Writ.

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Nobles, well high nobles of which the Velvet family are get certain privileges that come along with their nobility.

Like how the Bluebloods got to choose the taxes for cities.

A lot of the wealth of a noble family comes from these royal privileges. Which grant them advantages and stuff like monopolies.

 

[Nevermort]

Nobles, well high nobles of which the Velvet family are get certain privileges that come along with their nobility.

Like how the Bluebloods got to choose the taxes for cities.

A lot of the wealth of a noble family comes from these royal privileges. Which grant them advantages and stuff like monopolies.

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Perhaps in general, yes. But we never saw those advantages and what exactly they entailed as Hill exiled Velvet to Ponyville. If anything we or at least Pride may get access to them as Hill would not be declared dead for some time yet. And in the end they always were meant to be removed at some point as Hill is not immortal. I think it only puts us closer to the decision making process.

Also if Focus on her work for Rarity wins I would argue for taking Uncle FO over her lesson, as her career would not be in any danger and we may get a better picture of our family affairs through interaction with Steppes.

 

[Greymere]

So, how many people are we sending. Just cause they can doesn't mean some evidence won't be left behind. It's still a risk that isn't needed.

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Up to three. Exact details of who and what artifacts would have to wait until an actual expedition vote (if it wins), but I feel the most likely combination to be DoA+Mareinette+Biedde.

Btw, I am going to add in Recalibrate-Moth for Cherenkolt, in case we want to go full Moth on Velvet Hill instead of bringing Mareinette. It won't affect anything else if we decide not to bring him, but I figured it'd be good to have the option.

 

[spiderhellian]

"Yes, of course. But not in the way you are thinking. You see, Cadance, the ponies that I truly harmed with my decision were the family heirs, those who were situated to inherit the title of Noble as family heads once the current heads passed away. But until the current heads perish, absolutely nothing will change… Absolutely nothing will change officially, that is. But noble families are nothing if not protective of their future interests."

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Huh. That is a decent catch.

Killing a head of a Noble family does come with… consequences, these days.

Lord it does feel risky. I agree it reminds me of the Ruined Church — yes we're strong, but we're being pretty brazen about risks and consequences.

Seems kind of locked in, though. Do I vote for the plan I strongly dislike, knowing it leaves room open for Girldinner…? Dilemmas dilemmas (and probably not).

 

[ses]

I don't think we can cut Mareinette, seeing as she can roll Grail plus +60 specialty bonus to gather information and remove guards from their posts nonlethally. She's basically singlehandedly going to do almost all the work of keeping this quiet and efficient.

Lord it does feel risky. I agree it reminds me of the Ruined Church — yes we're strong, but we're being pretty brazen about risks and consequences.

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The comparison that should be being made is the Assault on Copper, not the Ruined Church. Seeing as Velvet isn't going personally into a dangerous location with 2 health.

Especially since unlike a Mansus Expedition, an Assault mission inherently comes with up to three days of nothing but info-gathering and scouting! Unlike Ruined Church where we committed to run into dangerous hurdles with no information! Rereading the Assault chapter the preparatory scouting was very thorough in gaining actual information about what obstacles were present and what approaches were viable and how they could work to match their strengths against enemy weakness. Ruined Church was nothing but a commitment to roll whatever Lore check got thrown out.

 

[Shaper47]

Especially since unlike a Mansus Expedition, an Assault mission inherently comes with up to three days of nothing but info-gathering and scouting!

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It doesn't really matter if you know your putting your hoof into a saw machine if you do it anyways.

For the Mansus Expedition we could turn back for this the group sent can't. Even in the event you underestimated the dangers and difficulties.

 

[spiderhellian]

The comparison that should be being made is the Assault on Copper, not the Ruined Church. Seeing as Velvet isn't going personally into a dangerous location with 2 health.

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Yeah, I agree it's probably not quite as risky as Ruined Church. There is scouting… but an expedition does boil down to a series of dice rolls, all the same.

I think it's the vibe that gets to me, the taking on of an unnecessary risk. Whatever the possible rewards are.

Because however strong our squad, it is a risk. And it is not necessary.

 

[Nevermort]

Yeah, I agree it's probably not quite as risky as Ruined Church. There is scouting… but an expedition does boil down to a series of dice rolls, all the same.

I think it's the vibe that gets to me, the taking on of an unnecessary risk. Whatever the possible rewards are.

Because however strong our squad, it is a risk. And it is not necessary.

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If three Names can't do it we can as well forget about All-in expedition. As for necessity no expedition is actually necessary and currently we need bits more than we need artifacts so it is in fact one of more useful expeditions available. We are currently choosing it over Tall Tale expedition for example.

 

[ses]

Also if Focus on her work for Rarity wins I would argue for taking Uncle FO over her lesson, as her career would not be in any danger and we may get a better picture of our family affairs through interaction with Steppes.

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I want to study the moth artifact over teaching rarity, but teaching Rarity this turn is valuable because we are very likely to have her Commission two turns in a row once her career is secured via this turn's Focus, and we can't teach her on a Commission turn. Teaching Rarity probably increases her per turn income by about 10 bits but it also increases her Commission income too, probably by 10ish bits per commission or more, so that's 50 bits-ish we'd be missing out on just delaying the training.

But +15 to Moth seems... important. Both for this turn and for expeditions next turn. And it gets us a 100 bit sellable artifact for next turn as well as providing some safety net for the other artifact study rolls.

I am also incredibly sad at the lack of Tall Tale.

 

[Shaper47]

But +15 to Moth seems... important. Both for this turn and for expeditions next turn.

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Sigh, no it doesn't work like that.

Artifacts can not be used on the turn they are studied.

 

[Nevermort]

If we take Mareinette with us then our Grail would be higher than Moth, and guards challenge usually either Moth or Grail. Even if we get Moth artifact it would only reach Grail levels. Why break in when Mareinete can just walk in and invite Hill for the dinner.

 

[Greymere]

I don't think we can cut Mareinette, seeing as she can roll Grail plus +60 specialty bonus to gather information and remove guards from their posts nonlethally. She's basically singlehandedly going to do almost all the work of keeping this quiet and efficient.

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At the same time, one of the info-gathering rolls for Copper was Moth wasn't it? And while picking up valuables or whatever along the way would be nice, ultimately what we'd really want is for the team to slip in and out without making any noise, which is quite a Mothy thing. DoA (w/ Moth 3 artifact) + Biedde + Moth-Cherenkolt would be a total of 9 Moth levels and roll a base of +95.

Edit: Actually that gives me a thought. @OurLadyOfWires, if we assault Hill (with the intention of kidnapping), how flexible can be with our approach? Like, breaking and entering is a classic, but could we also say direct our team toward an extremely social approach (e.g. luring him out of his home to somewhere more vulnerable)? Everyone knows the good lady Mareinette is a perfectly respectable mare who can do no wrong after all.

Cause if we can go all in on the social approach, Mareinette + Grail-Cherenkolt would be a pretty good combination with a total of 9 Grail levels and Mareinette's +60 social specialty.

 

[des-pair-2]

[X] Plan: Cannibalism is Cringe

What convinced me to vote for this is getting our hoofs dirty action. I wish for Velvet to participate in the raid on the Changelings.

Edit:

[X] Plan: Graven Commissioner and Commander

 

[ses]

What convinced me to vote for this is getting our hoofs dirty action. I wish for Velvet to participate in the raid on the Changelings.

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Graven Commissioner is a plan that's literally the same as Devour the Sky except it gets our hoofs dirty

At the same time, one of the info-gathering rolls for Copper was Moth wasn't it? And while picking up valuables or whatever along the way would be nice, ultimately what we'd really want is for the team to slip in and out without making any noise, which is quite a Mothy thing. DoA (w/ Moth 3 artifact) + Biedde + Moth-Cherenkolt would be a total of 9 Moth levels and roll a base of +95.

Edit: Actually that gives me a thought. @OurLadyOfWires, if we assault Hill (with the intention of kidnapping), how flexible can be with our approach? Like, breaking and entering is a classic, but could we also say direct our team toward an extremely social approach (e.g. luring him out of his home to somewhere more vulnerable)? Everyone knows the good lady Mareinette is a perfectly respectable mare who can do no wrong after all.

Cause if we can go all in on the social approach, Mareinette + Grail-Cherenkolt would be a pretty good combination with a total of 9 Grail levels and Mareinette's +60 social specialty.

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Taking Cherenkolt kinda locks us into doubling down on one Lore ahead of time, while Biedde/Axe+Artifact/Mareinette lets us be very strong in both Moth and Grail simultaneously, which is pretty nice since the Assault on Copper showed that Name teams can split into a Grail team of Mareinette solo and a Moth/Knock team and both make their rolls simultaneously. I fully expect the "seduce the guards" trope to be in effect while the others steal everything that isn't nailed down. Seems like the plan that maximizes our objectives of "no suspicion" plus "Hill" plus "loot". Plus it lets the team be flexible in choosing their approach after they get the info from their preparatory scouting.

And yes, during the Assault on Copper the team split up and did a Grail check, a SH check, and a Moth check during the same Day 2 and all gained different information. Being able to replicate that (sans SH) is probably valuable.

 

[des-pair-2]

Graven Commissioner is a plan that's literally the same as Devour the Sky except it gets our hoofs dirty

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Well, it's not literally the same. It doesn't have Cherenkolt recalibrating for Moth, and it has summoning a Torn RIsen in it, but I get your point. I'll vote for that Plan as well.

 

[Greymere]

Well, it's not literally the same. It doesn't have Cherenkolt recalibrating for Moth, and it has summoning a Torn RIsen in it, but I get your point. I'll vote for that Plan as well.

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Devouring the Sky is also summoning a Torn Risen btw, I'm just leaving it as a forced action for Velvet phase since it technically could fail (and thus be forced to Leash someone instead to meet the Follower AP debt).

 

[ses]

So obviously I've been rolling Biedde simulated duels all week and worrying about how much of a huge risk we're taking.

I just rolled 4 losses in a row, followed by a duel where Velvet dealt 3 wounds to Biedde in the first round (Nat 100 for 94 overflow plus autowound and 10 existing overflow from the first roll of the round). Lmao.

EDIT: followed by a 2nd duel with a nat100 on the first roll dealing 2 wounds. These fights are extremely swingy to put it mildly.

 

[dcoconeo]

[X] Plan: Cannibalism is Cringe

No buying problems when we have more than enough to deal with already, thanks.