Pax's Alternate History Snippet repository.

[Imperator Pax]

Late November 1913
Part 2

​

The British band down on the floor swelled to its conclusion and the party goers clapped politely.

The thing about the end to the 'Second Revolution' was regardless of Zhang's presence or any of the other Beiyang officers and their staff was that it meant a perceived return to normal business. Vickers, Siemens, were only really two of the names of those great globe striding companies with offices in the Chinese Capital and who's officers were present at dinner parties, and soirees. Everyone was here, and for most part English was the language spoken... the British Empire strode the globe and companies like Vickers knew it. This was the ideal scene to finalize details and matters with Percy.

"Is the contracting paperwork finished?" Forrest Senior asked putting the scotch and soda water to the side.

The son put his own aside, "Just about. There are a few more details. We'll have to work things out with the Swiss," But that wasn't likely to be any trouble, Bert and a couple of the other guys could do with a trip to Europe anyway. The wonder of steam ships no longer dependent on the wind made it so there were no concerns such as those that had been in the days of the East India Company a ship could make for Europe and be there several weeks, and of course an American travelling to Europe from China and going back wouldn't attract much in the way of attention. They had letters from John Jordan anyway, and the British Foreign Service. "Its as good of time as any for a visit," Bert would be able to visit Italy and Belgium as well and wherever else. "Reinsch say something?"

"He requested your academic file from West Point. I expect given the thoroughness on display he'll request the service jackets and and material from the rest of your conglomerate in due time. I know he's spoken to Pershing by telephone as well." The latter was less of a surprise, nor was it really a surprise when the elder Forrest glanced down from the bannister at one of the Vicker's officers, "Pershing asked me whether you've tested Lewis's gun in eight millimeter?"

"Not personally, Sam has done a couple of tool room guns."

"Do they work?"

He shrugged. Griswold liked them better than working with the potato diggers, and Maxims, but that might have just been they were something new. "I suppose so," But they were labor intensive and the machining, a trip to Denmark for more Madsens wasn't a terrible idea for a prospective outing to Europe. "Griswold will test them until they don't." Probably to catastrophic failure inside of a rest.

"So they work." The old man settled on, "Going to mount them on air planes, are you?"

"I don't have any air planes, you know that."

"Have you shown them to Yuan?"

"Not as of yet." There was a matter of cost there. Yuan would have been interested in such a design... and yeah the friend of friend angle would have encouraged him towards interest in such a new weapon, but Yuan had a tendency towards sticker shock for new weapons even as much as he wanted to modernize his northern army. "The Beiyang has expended a lot of money as of late," Burned through a substantial portion of its budget that had been intended to last through 1915 more like. "and Yuan still wants to downsize the army." Something he couldn't do with the south restive as it was.

"Even after those Danish Madsens of Cai's?"

"Yuan has some Madsens," Or Rexers, "of his own," Or Second Division had had some, and they were probably not the only Beiyang division, "The Hotchkiss performed well too." No, Yuan would listen to his officers and since of course none of them would agree on which machine gun was best things would likely stall out for a while until both money and a compromise could be figured. Neither of those were likely to happen any time soon. Allen picked up his glass and took a sip, "Is this about Colt?"

"More about General Crozier, if you start testing, I want copies before anything is published, and certainly before its released for circulation."

It was an absurd ask for the old man to make. General Crozier had powerful friends, and more than that even was the ongoing argument with Isaac, and that was the larger issue. "Isaac expects copies of anything we learn, and the performance. As I just said," Between everything else going on, "Sam hasn't had much time to do anything substantive in the last few months. Next spring maybe."

"That would be good." He wondered if the old man thought things might have settled down by then, which seemed ridiculous... neither Crozier or Newton were the sort who'd just let the matter lay. "What about Shinnozaki? Have the Japanese observed any of the test.

He shook his head and sipped his whisky, as he hadn't even considered that there might be an interest there, "What's this about Nanking I've heard coming from Reinsch?"

"I don't believe the minister intends to stir things up with Zhang Xun, but he wasn't particularly happy with the situation down there." The promotion to Field Marshal was something on, and off again the subject of much gossip in a city that was drowning in rumor, and speculation. "Zhang went to call on all the consuls after the Japanese one."

"To under cut Japan's claims I suspect," Allen remarked.

"Perhaps so," Zhang Xun wasn't the only one the Minister was ducking right now, but Hayashi had the Italians to keep him company it seemed. They paused as the German marines in their new uniforms took their turn at the instruments on the stage. The Germans, and the English always seemed to alternate with one another at these sorts of events. It had become routine. "The Germans had problems maintaining a native police force the first couple of years."

"That's not why I asked John Jordan for the dispensation."

"I wasn't saying it was, but I also know you're friendly enough with the Germans to be aware of their problems."

Desertion was less of an issue for them though. It wasn't the 1890s anymore, the Qing were gone now for good and bad, and beyond that, "As Pershing would say a good soldier needs a good foundation to be built up from." and their teething experiences had really been during the Xinhai two years back, even if there would likely be problems as they put more men into the field. "Meyer-Waldeck and I have lunch the day before I leave town."

"I had heard you were sitting down with the German Governor, career navy man like that." He took a drink, "Siemens has those wireless sets, unless this is about artillery."

"Its the latter, it was something Percy has been worrying on."

"Ah export or domestic production at license of Krupp's guns. Any prospects?"

Not any time soon with the state of the Beiyang Army's budget unfortunately, but the Captain-Governor of Tsingtao was more than willing to demonstrate the artillery of III Seebatallion for the Beiyang's artillerymen. Selling locally would have been nice, that had been the whole plan for a number of projects after all.

--
Alfred's artillery demonstration saturday had been the whole spiel down to the brass band, and polished boots. The Peking detachment had shown an effective precision even if with the available drill space hadn't had the option to truly demonstrate the heavy howitzers full range. It had however been an excuse for champagne and hor d'oeuvres in the waning afternoon.

Peking, Tietsin, like Shanghai, and Canton down south though were used to these sorts of gatherings of the great power's enclaves and the turn out was substantial in the number of Chinese who came along to it. It didn't escape Allen that as much, as normal as the return to such a gathering seemed Bai Lang was still out in the field with an army of substantive number even if it was divided into separate divisions and formed into at least one north and south army each.

Only the Ottomans of the Great Powers could really be considered absent. That wasn't to say the Pasha in Constantinople was absent Asia. Letters in 1900, and onwards from the Caliph, and Grand Vizier on the US's behalf had been a vital part of operations in Sulu, and with the Moros, and various muslims in the former Spanish colony. China though? Not a priority for the House of Osman and they had never participated in the Eight Nations Alliance. To be fair of course even if they had wanted to involve themselves the Balkan wars ending the past spring had marked the lose of the last of the Ottoman possessions in the region.

Italy, and Austria-Hungary, Belgium, and Russia had all put in appearances, as had others ranging from the Dutch all the way up to of course to Hayashi making an appearance on behalf of the Japanese Emperor. John Jordan was occupied with his opposite from Russia. This was all about the game, the prestige, the pageantry put on for expats, and Chinese residents to the concessions and regular chinese citizens as well as to their leaders.

To say that business as usual was back. To assuage everyone to go back to spending money, and making money.


Cao Kun sipped his champagne even before the refilled flute could slow from bubbling, "You have some of those." It was a wholly rhetorical question even in the minister of posts a little stilted English from the drink. "I mean you can bore them out."

"We will be able to," He replied, they weren't quite to domestic production for the line. "The first batch of steel for the barrels hasn't actually been bored yet." Barrel manufacturing was a time intensive process. He noted Cao Kun had managed to get through half of the French fizz already even nodding along, "Breech blocks, springs, wheels we will be able to manufacture all of that." That had been Griswold's whole reason to getting a license from Krupps, because at some point Yuan Shikai was probably going to have wanted artillery. Krupp's local representative was busy chattering away with Griswold over who knew what arcane minutiae. "The new trail design can be used on the smaller guns you've already got, it will give them more elevation."

Cao Kun nodded, "We have bad roads, the steel wheels are nice, but I don't always have trucks even in Zhili, you know." As with machine guns, and artillery, and other equipment besides, the Beiyang divisions had a tendency to run off with each others specialist tools, "That scoundrel who still has his queue took all of mine down to Nanking."

That was news to Allen, but truthfully he wasn't surprised, "Did you get them back?" His interest piqued.

"Some of them." Cao replied waving for another flute of fizz.

He glanced back towards the gathered officers of armies, and industry. For all the perception of normality conveyed by this gather, and the others like it... it was a lie. This whole affair was a dog and pony show for public consumption.

--
Commentary: I need to point this out early, just so its been stated before, during this period the fedora is a woman's hat its only in the interwar years that men started wearing it, but it was originally worn by women from about eighteen eighty onward, generally in somewhat fancy semi formal attire and up, not really a working class piece of gear.

For this I haven't really focused on Edwardian era attire, but realistically speaking I probably should, during this period there is a lot of social transition going on not just in China, where this story is set but also globally as luxury clothes continue to proliferate.

Spoiler: Very Lengthy related 5 May Arms Embargo, and other events

Anyway, as to the Norway thing, basically before 1923 probably not, and by that point the market for WW1 surplus as available is complicated by the arms embargo. The best way to circumvent that is well for a signatory to go through Vickers in Britain who has enough clout that John Jordan can't do anything about it, or go through a nonsignatory like Sweden, or Czechoslovakia or Switzerland or Weimar Germany.

The other signatories it varies. Italy would be a potential option of sorts, but they have other problems, though they are providing arms into China to other people. Soviet Union, kind of obviously out even after the end of the Russian Civil War for reasons. Denmark, actually made an effort to stop arms traffic from their nationals. Netherlands up in the air especially after 23. France mixed bag lots of political changes at home, and economic issues, but post 23 aircraft are on the table, as are tanks. Japan limited options but they did sell to basically everybody at least in terms of small arms though Great Kanto Earthquake, and then the big stock market crash later in the decade. Belgium is an option FN sold to plenty of people but that's mostly limited to small arms. Spain originally skirted the treaty by selling pistols, and then they kind of just through pretending out the window. Aircraft, machine guns, autocannons, etc by the later half the decade. Brasil and Portugal I can't comment on, I know they agreed to the May 5th​ agreement at the onset, but I don't know what their role in it was, we know that Portuguese surplus made into China but yeah...


So the May 5th​ agreement of 1919 makes it difficult to source surplus ww1 equipment and military equipment in general, including machine tooling for a few years. See the quote from above post regarding what certain US figures thought about this in terms of effectiveness, the original agreement was expanded, and was attempted to be expanded. Weimar Germany, Soviet Russia (the original signatory to the original was probably Kerensky's government, or possibly even one of the early white governments, but they tried to get Soviet accession to the accord), Czechs were all invited to join. I suspect that Sweden was invited as well, but it hasn't been said anywhere, Switzerland as well I believe I have read that the US State department wanted the Swiss to sign on to the arms embargo against Honduras during this period so it wouldn't surprise me. It was followed on by a 13 power agreement a few years later (after 1919) but that was even less effect, see the quote.

As to France, I'm still checking but while they were selling new model Schneider's to Japan, the only instances of 'modern' artillery sales I can find are some Hotchkiss machine guns in 20s, and those sales probably started as war time surplus. The biggest sale of modern artillery as we would think of in modern terms appears to have been Italy apparently their 76/40 (that's barrel length) were popular with the north. France appears to have been reluctant to sell directly, and part of this seems to have been pressure from Japan, though how effective that was I don't know. The Schneider-Canet seems to show up but that may have come via the Czech legion since I don't know who would have been selling them.

Of course there was also the possibility that it was just a matter of expense, because France doesn't seem to have had an objection selling aircraft in the early twenties, in competition with Great Britain. So I digress, with regards to flagrant violations of the Arms Embargo from the British perspective (that of the Foreign Office, if not necessarily John Jordan specifically) were Italy, and Japan at least in the early twenties. They weren't really happy with the United States either, but to be honest given the context that comes off as rank hypocrisy. (Am I surprised by this... no, not at all. It is however hilarious.)

[What I will probably do when we get there, is to Index a post about the May 5th Arms Embargo of 1919 based on what I know, and possibly when and with what things started to be ignored. I suspect is the reason that France didn't allow the export of Schneider artillery, along with possibly cost, but again there are ways around that, I've already mentioned the Finns for example.]

 

[Imperator Pax]

Late November 1913
Part 3​

The return trip had been as mild as the weather. There had been no disturbances, and nothing to impede the return to work. The train had gotten up to its clip of sixty miles an hour, and taken them back, and if any of the other riders of the deep blue cars had noticed the men aboard with their Brownings it had not been commented on. Allen truthfully had spent his time in the forward carriage looming over the map of the rail line as it was now in service.

The line west specifically, and the direct link into the interior stirred thoughts of how it had all began... how the rail had started. Yuan Shikai had always been a modernizer not just in military affairs, but in all the ways technology improved life. The railway, the telegram were important parts of that, and had been that subject to which they had spoken at length on in the hermit kingdom a decade previous. In 1908 there was enough influence at the Qing court to get somewhere on it, to get started on what would eventually blossom into everything they had now.

Yuan had been born before the war between the states. His dismissal of the peasant rebellion that constantly wracked the Qing empire made sense. There had been literally hundreds of them through the empire over Yuan's lifetime. Small ones, big ones, Yuan had been only a child when the Taiping rebellion had been crushed and no other rebellion in the empire came close to that catastrophic conflict was recorded to have been.

The letter waiting from Yamagata had come by courier, apparently the old man didn't trust the post system. It had instead been hand ferried from the peninsula through Shinozaki's immediate superior, which was of course confirmed by his stamp on the paper. It along with Edenborn's latest letter, and a few others carried with them the news. He made the decision that he'd write to Isaac, but first there was testing to be done. There would be men needed to send to Europe as well.

It was good to be back. Peking was nice to visit, Tietsin as well, and certainly preferable to the cities down south. The older concessions. There were going to be talks about what everything that was going on was going to mean. It was more than just that. "Was he serious about that cure thing?"

He glanced at Griswold. "Yuan..." How to put it nicely. Yuan had been born before the war between the states, and to a family never blessed with longevity, "He's starting to feel old. Is his family cursed? I don't think so... but its true they tend to burn bright and die young."

"Guess its best if Bill's daddy doesn't visit?"

"I imagine they'd get along quite well."

"The colonel is near to eighty, and is still sporting."

"I know, but I do not think Yuan would be anything but impressed." He shrugged, "Regardless we need to prepare for a meeting. Have you heard anything from Shellman?"

"I have not."

That was a pity. He'd been hoping for a telegram and some idea of progress. "My daddy mentioned Siemen's wireless sets. It didn't occur to me at the time, but I recall reading, some Russian Naval Officer's publication," Isaac would have known the man's name. "On the application of range finding of artillery based on Dabble."

"Yeah, we borrowed a similar idea from the French."

"I know," Isaac had gone at length about it, more than once about milliradians, and the calculations of an estimated height of an object to determine its distance. "But if we could bait Bai into committing into the field, those 15 cm guns could determine any enemy distance first, and then relay that distance and engage without those guns first committed."

"Sure, the navy has experimented with combination range finding. Think the brits have done it with balloon and heliographs can't imagine its impossible. We have field telephones though. At ninety five hundred yards there's no reason for wireless sets, no the main advantage Allen is the weight of the-" He stopped, "Tell me he isn't?"

"Its just an idea, and realistically they'll never be ready in time. I was just using our present problem as an example."

"For your insane hypothetical if you had to wireless sets you could tell one gun battery what another had figured for distance allowing it to zero on an enemy position such that they would not have any warning before the second battery opened."

"That's what I thought." He responded. "So, how long until Dawes or any of our other red leg friends happen to think of it?"
--
November nearly over it was time to pen letters, and cards for Christmas back home. He probably should have already written them as a precaution there was no telling what delays would be in store but it was something to do, and a long list. By the end of the day, never mind all of the normal writing his job entailed the bones in his hand ached.

The days were so much shorter now, but it also signaled that it was unlikely that any bandit army would try for any sort of long march across the country. The simple method of season 'troops' volunteering for a season and returning to their farms off and on precluded Bai from likely making any sort of sweeping gesture until at least the new year... or at least so was conventional wisdom. Bai Lang would need to secure winter quarters for his jia before the new year, but more realistically even that would fall to local bandit leaders at the 'brigade', or perhaps even down to the battalion level.

He'd been told this, over, and over again but most especially by Cao... and he was having doubts. Sure, large swathes of the army he could believe were dispersed, maybe that was true, and the army in or heading for Yuunan was probably done fighting for the year maybe. The idea of the Arisakas so recently delivered to Bai Lang's troops, and the still stready stream of propaganda leaflets made him consider that at least some professional corp of Bai lang's veritable horde intended to do something over the winter months.

He was less certain on Jun's reading that it was implicitly natural that Bai Lang would try for something as grandiose as a march in land now, but there were plenty of reasons why that might make strategic sense. The propanda value was there too, even if Bai wasn't actually trying to declare him Emperor or whatever. The idea, the claim he could make that he'd taken some ancient storied city like Xian was too dangerous to not contend. With a million people living there and far from the sea the cost to remove him from the city would be too much.

Letting him take the city was unacceptable for other reasons, but never mind that one. He rubbed his eyes as the electric lights of the sitting room fought the hour's dark, and Jun dismissed the server who'd placed the tea on the table. "The British's only concern from 1906 to 1911 was in building a rail to stretch from Hong Kong to Peking." Only concern might have been stretching it, but certainly it seemed if John Jordan had always been rushing to fight some fire or another regarding that railway project, or the one for Shanghai... the matter of finance, and issue of the provinces... and then of course to resolve all that neatly the Qing court had decided the provinces were taking too long to be effective... and thus the railway protests that followed in may... and then the following autumn the outbreak in Wuchang.

"I remember something to that affect," He replied reaching to inch the newspaper closer to his side of the table, but he already had a good idea of what it said. Allen wasn't entirely sure exactly how many newspapers there were in the country, or just in the south, but Shanghai probably had at least fifty, and possibly as many as a hundred any given year. They published, lived fast and died, consumed in an ever competing cuthroat market looking for readers.

Yuan had complained, had pivoted his complaining now that the national assembly had been officially disolved that their job had been to draw up a written constitution. It didn't surprise Allen that by preference Yuan would have liked something along the Prussian, German model of governance. That had been the opinion also of the Japanese, though Reinsch hopefully would have the good sense not to point that out... if only at least because of the various 'seditious delinquents' who had fled from the country had largely now relocated to Japan. It seemed somewhat silly to call the southern doctor a delinquent given he was only six or seven year Yuan's junior... but such was the rhetoric.

Allen didn't expect a constitution convention such that Reinsch would have liked any time soon, and the newspaper's publication with its sprawling broadsheet in front was openly critical of goings on in Peking, and full of praise for Bai Lang, Huang Xing, and Sun Yat-sen, but didn't go so far as to reiterate openly Bai's own leaflets calling for a 'third revolution'.

"Admiral Tseng will probably shutter the paper," Either on his own accord, or by the receipt of Peking's order to do so. The Beiyang Admiral who was governor of the city for such that the international city could be said to have a chinese governor was a tolerant fellow, but neither he, nor the British were likely to be particularly thrilled by this sort of carrying on. It would have been different if the rebels hadn't had to be thrown back from the Woosung forts in the summer months.

.. but that wasn't really the point he supposed. The publications sprang up and spoke on such things vying and vying for readers, and it was obvious that there was still a significant market for such revolutionary chatter particularly in the south, and for that matter Peking had no shortage of readers for such complaints against the government.

The Peking paper beneath the Shanghai though was too busy making fun of Yuan's return to Confucianism as official state creed. The quote of 'the whole chinese people hold the doctrines of Confucius most sacred' being mocked in a cartoon from the University's paper was less of a concern, even if its very existence was actually kind of funny, than what this would be internationally. "As for that, I can already hear the missionaries complaining. Reinsch must be already swamped with protests from the methodists, and baptists," and all the rest, "To do something to stop this backslide into pagan barbarism." and John Jordan was likely to be subjected to the same airs. Agitated missionaries meant public disturbances, meant public incidents that could be used as an excuse for one party or another to claim injury.

--
Commentary: This is mostly slice of life, because this is one of the stories to which well this in particular is mostly plotted to its conclusion. Certainly its all outlined, but this is an eye towards more common events. Yuan Shikai remained relatively popular throughout his life, certainly in the north, and the countryside, and much the demonization his reputation underwent did not start until that whole try and make himself emperor affair. However there were people who did speak out, and this was predominantly members of China's emerging middle class intellectuals, students. That's a trend that will continue in the warlord period in Peking, Shanghai, Hong Kong etc, but the idea that Yuan was some kind of rote stock movie villain is an invention of the late forties.

Yuan's critics in early years of the republic didn't view him in this way for the most part. There were some who did, but again most of that emerged a few years from now and it only exploded in 1916 after Yuan's death. Bai Lang for example seems to have had little personal quibble with Yuan Shikai until his mentor was killed, and likely fearing for his own life made a wide array of political alliances. Now, I personally suspect that Bai Lang at least believed somewhat in his political message, but I accept that he was willing to compromise on politics in the face of real politik.

However due to western pressure Yuan avoided simply ending any pretense of free speech. Newspapers actually operated throughout the Warlord period, and while repression did happen most journalists felt confident to come out and speak about the people in charge. The eulogy of the dogmeat general is just one example of this, but it was not free press as exists in the west today. Journalists in 1913 could have been jailed or killed and this resulted in a number of publications using the foreign concessions as legal shields (a practice that had actually begun during the Qing). French Shanghai was a particular example of this, and the French quarter would shelter the early communist movement throughout the twenties.

 

[Imperator Pax]

December 1913
Part 1​

Rubin had spent most of the morning yelling along on some tyrannical mess regarding costs, and material and so forth. It had been a charming assembly for everyone involved in the tinkering of engines... not that he wasn't wrong, but the engineer could very well have found a way to do it at eight thirty in the morning that didn't involve shaking the windows.

The point stood though the end of the year was fast approaching. The immediate aftermath of the Xinhai revolt had shaken out over the course of 1912, and of course this past march Song had been shot. Rubin had plenty of reason to complain about new expenditures on the military... not that in China there was anything about being a private military. Something that Reinsch would need to acclimate to. The new ambassador, regardless of official styling, had opened a month with a letter that either dastardly scheming... or the man was that much of an academic. Not that Allen disliked talking about economics, or the matters and principles of industry, but it had been a queer inquiry to receive by letter instead of in person given the reliability, and safety of the rail line to Peking. That topic was of course the matter that drew back to Rubin's tirade.

The big west line getting finished should have marked a number of new opportunities. China was a country who's only competitor in terms of volume of people was the Raj. ... and unlike India China was open to all manner of foreign business. There was the international consortium which controlled the matters of tariffs in China, but that was not the same thing as London's direct rule over the subcontinent. For the grand ambitions, the calculations and the mathematical modelling had been conjured regarding investments ... well all of it had sort of hinged on the underlying matter that the Qing would just sort of keep plodding along. That they would slowly get used to modern convenience. That China would adjust to the modern world, and the great body of people would see an increasing need for those conveniences. Wilson getting elected, and trade barriers coming down hadn't been considered even though they had made plans to export what they could tariffs had already entered into the equation. Manufacturing locally would have eliminated those oppressive burdens from consideration.

Such had been the equations of nineteen ten. Whether or not Rubin liked it they had to be proactive in the matter of arms, and not just in their sale.

There was a thump as the bipod unfolded and dug its feet into the surface of the desk. "There it is," Griswold declared crossing his arms as Yi stood there laden with ammunition as if he were a mule, "What do you want it for?"

"Go and get Shinozaki,"

Shang was out the door without any of the objections he had had this morning on initial receipt of the idea.

"What are you up to John Allen?"

"Well, Sam my father has imparted to me a most devious idea." Or rather had inspired him to such, and he smiled, "I want to test this," He gestured to Lewis's gun, "machine gun against Colt's."

"That's dumb." Griswold replied flatly, and then as he likely figured where this was to go. "That is underhanded. They're not even remotely comparable if you wanted a fair comparison you would compare the potato digger to the Hotchkiss, or the Rexer to Lewis."

"Oh certainly I know this."

"Why?"

"Because my father wants copies of our tests, and also I did promise Lewis feedback."

Sam snorted, "Yeah, so besides Yamagata who else, Yuan obviously."

"Colonel McCulloch," He shrugged, "I can think of a few other names, but some time in the next year after we have everything worked out, I want to be able to tell Lewis as much as we can, and in particular as it relates to this caliber."

"European sales. Do you want Crozier howling after you too?"

"Not at all, we'll do the testing, and next year we'll publish. I've a friend in Italy, who can make sure that Hayashi gets a copy." Which would be of course months down the road, probably closer to June or even later in the year, but it would be a reminder.

"Why don't you just skip this whole thing, invite Hayashi to come watch us saw a tree down with it."

"Don't be ridiculous, Sam. He'd complain we were being uncouth." Though.... that, he'd be happy to admit, did sound fun, "More to the point I need it established we have these, and that we're going forward with them." Then they'd see what Bai did in response of course, but in a year or two... two being more likely, they could invite Cao Kun, or even pig tail out to see production guns.

"What about Qirui," who was still at last word rooting through Anhui, "I admit he's busy, but if Yuan wants to take more cues from the British having Qirui endorse the idea as an artillery officer might carry some more weight. He's been receptive of the Krupp guns." Griswold reminded, and Allen sat back in his chair.

"Thats true, but I suspect Duan is going to be among the last ones to come around on the idea," Which could be a problem, "He's relatively set on the Maxim," Which might have been why he was having a hard time keep pace with Bai Lang's fleet forces in the field, or not, but it would make sense of the reports that they had. "Especially given his experiences taking back Hankou," That had been two years now he realized, and glanced to Yi. Shang returned with the Japanese officer, the latter with ink stains still on his finger tips Allen noted, which of course reminded him of the letters that he needed to send out as well. "Well I need to drop Newt a line," He remarked standing up, grabbing underneath the stock and the aluminum forend and slinging it around to rest on his shoulder... Griswold had yet to fix a sling to the bastard. "Well gentlemen I reckon we have some tests to conduct at the range." The walk let him regale Shinozaki of the test flight of a Lewis gun the year previous stateside, and of the Vickers testing that Percy had bragged about having taken place a few weeks earlier in England.

"Eventually," Griswold agreed chiming in, "the engines will become sufficiently robust enough that planes will be able to be much heavier, to the point of carrying wireless sets as well as machine guns."

"Catch infantry on the road, or survey their positions for artillery. That's the idea the signal corp has had back home once the technology matures some." Allen concluded, "And has Sam has already shown road engines are capable of moving heavy artillery much faster than pack animals, and have less mobility issues than armored cars." He withheld any comments that the bayonet charge had been proven obsolete by the events of July of 1863, the Japanese and the French loved the fool things of course, and the English still thought them important. "With aggressive maneuver warfare being pioneered new technology will be adapted to suit doctrine, and new developments in technology will inspire doctrine. I suspect the horse in warfare will go the way of the horse in other cargo transportation roles, and eventually we will see it be superseded in scouting and other specialist missions later on."

Shinozaki seemed surprised by this idea, "Do you really believe so?"

"I do, one has to consider how many horses labored in England for labor purposes and how many fewer were necessary as the railways proliferated." The Victorian poets had frenzied themselves in writing about the steam engine replacing the horse, how much less in fodder was required for the employment of the train. "It will take time of course, the cavalry believe that the machine gun can be disassembled and transported on the back of ponies to scout and establish a base of fire to hold the enemy while the infantry advances..." And that was with potato diggers of all things, not that Allen fancied the idea of trying to have a troop move and supply Madsens given the occasional persnickety manner of the top feed.

The field had taken about a thousand men, plus engineers with dynamite, near a month to clear and establish, and it half reminded him in placed of the baseball field complete with dugout. Sam picked up a receiver inset to a wall and spoke with the operator as Yi started to unload. "Well we're here."

"I reckon we'll let Yi go next since he humped the ammo along."

"Is that why you carried the gun?"

"Sam you get to shoot the gun whenever you like," Allen pointed out moving from his modified port arms as Griswold warned Shinozaki about the noise. The field had great slabs of steel at known ranges, and ditches with mechanical carriers much as existed for the National Matches at Perry at other spots, but they would only be engaging the steel rectangles. "To the future gentlemen." He pulled the bolt open, and he supposed it did sort of sound like a rattler.
--
Commentary: Madsen and Rexer are used interchangeably and often even when not specifically talking about Rexer (that is British built) Madsen guns. Rexer seems to have done a brisk business exporting into both africa as well as south america and china and become a kind of catchall for the guns, and they weren't the only unliscenced madsen copy that ended up floating around. Though we also know that actual danish build madsens were sold in China.

 

[Imperator Pax]

December 1913
Part 2
​

China was a country doggedly looking for investors. That had been true under the Qing, and it was true in both north and south. The last few years had been a boom for the rail, even accounting for the mess of the revolution. The rail was among their core industries, and that behooved John Allen to keep an eye on what their rival firms did. In 1910 [The French] had finished their rail line linking Hanoi to Yunnan. The Japanese had linked Pyongyang to Shenyang the year after, and just this past year completed the trunk line going from Mukden to Peking. The Xinhai revolt though had irrevocably been about railway arguments between local landholders inability to compete with experienced foreign institutions. Really that was to say the English, but the international consortium as a whole had been involved. The rebellion though two years previous had almost assuredly killed any hopes of linking the north of the country from Peking all the way south directly to Hong Kong... well that and this second failed rebellion.

A pity for the Brits, since of course such a line would have benefitted them the most. Xian was a city of about million people, and if anyone were to hold it they would be effectively inviolable a person with such a tax base even though the whole of China's population was frequently argued to be between 316 million to 411 million depending on which diplomatic person you questioned in the Tientsin legation township. However many people in the sum of the country it didn't matter Xian's population was now linked by a single rail, built on a single pattern gauge all the way to the capital... and that meant money.

Money which was the bait for the trap. Bai had made his attempts against targets that would either provide him loot, or means to source funds to support his rebellion. Some had succeeded, some had failed, and that was just the way campaigning worked for feudal horde.

John Allen ran his fingers over the map detailing the great city walls that had held back the Mahomedans fifty years earlier, and scores of lesser rebellions from striking the city, until at least in 1911 the city Hui, and Han populations had firebombed the Manchu quarter and enslaved the survivors. Slavery was an institution in the countryside especially, and one the British missionaries fought against virulently when possible, but this was not Egypt where the British held much greater sway over the countryside, and slavery still persisted in that ancient country as well, just as it continued throughout the many colonies of the French regardless of the Parisian salons many railings against it. The derelict manchu city was ideal for their purposes as a result of the sack, and it was defensible, easily made hardier with the use of guns, and cannons. The walls though were high, and repeating rifles would be well suited to engaging a force in the open to the south.

Building the rail north of the city had been purely engineering in its origin. It was however ideal for defensive consideration. The rail line went north crossed the river and tracked eastward, and that made it harder to threaten from the south. It was possible of course the Bai Lang might maneuver a wide flank around, but the complexity of crossing the river would be foolhardy to chance if one didn't have to... they would take precautions either way and in that the city's walls would help as well.

... and this morning was supposed to be about business not this little war in the pocket he was planning to fight sometime in the spring. The Japanese holdings in Joseon, and their hold of the peninsula never mind the simple more direct sea access made it a simple task to have letters passed forward. It took much less time to send and receive word, and was more secure. Did he expect that none of his mail was unread by anyone but its recipients? No. Indeed there was a good chance his father's agents, as well as those employed by the British Foreign ministry made the effort to read at least some of his letters. The Japanese with their myriad cliques and coteries likely took effort special to read his letter to either of the Yamagata, or anyone else in their country when it was possible. Of course in the case of the younger Yamagata it really was only a matter of engineering, and rail work. Though he supposed the matter of bridges might to some be a military concern if ever the two countries went to war... though of course that was fanciful a notion given just where in country the bridges where and what waters they crossed. If you had marched an army that far inland well... it would be something else entirely.

The elder Yamagata's letters always near to struck political tones. Whether it was farming, or newspapers or really anything he had an opinion. Yamagata Aritomo rarely would discuss the matter of military affairs directly in letters... which of course suggested this letter had been passed solely by trusted courier through Pyongyang to Mukden to Peking and to here at last. The letter though spoke nothing of Lewis's gun, which suggested that it had been penned before old man Yamagata had received any reports from Shinozaki. Yamagata's letter was not the only receipt to consider. Chu had sent a telegram from Peking, a simple and hardly unusual request to meet. The german admiral had expressed an interest in visiting the arsenal, which of course he was hardly incline to refuse.

The German doctrinal position lay that the machine gun was an artillery weapon. This was far from unique the British army agreed at least that much at least in principal. The difference lay in well in bluntly the lessons learned over the last decade. The Germans and the British did both agree that machines of the Maxim sort were too heavy... but the Germans had seen the Russo Japanese war play out, and the British had fought the boer and both had come to different positions that were similar but unique at the same time.

And if the Admiral had been a field marshal? Well then there would have been little concern, because any Prussian general would have seen and known of the Madsen, and dismissed it, but the Navy might be more interested in it for their seebatalions who had to come along from boats. Or at least that would be what his father would likely argue. Entertaining guests was just a part of doing business, plenty of fellas from all the different powers travelled the country to see what the news was... and of course there was the very likely possibility that the admiral was visiting because Bai Lang was still pursuing the easy ransom money that came from abducting missionaries, and Kaiser Bill might well have heard that. Especially in that Berlin could not, would not abide the notion that only England, or worse England and America were engaged in the protection of Christian missionaries in perilous yellow lands in the distant east. He sort of hoped that that wasn't the case, but John Jordan was not happy about the missionary situation, and nor was the new guy.... and the missionaries were as shrill as cats in heat since Yuan's statement at the end of November.

He put the matter aside, and turned to the other matter... or matters of business. Railways had opened up the country. That had opened land purchases for farms, open coal fields, and the ready access to that had made steel a business to expand into that had then been used to furnish every industry that required it like the steel needed for the lines. It all fed in someway into the business, and that had been before they'd started the great western line into the interior of the country that terminated at Xian.

They had been moving westward for years now. Tietsin, Peking, here, would they eventually relocate the main office to a city of a million men, where there was even less western competition to be found than here? There were missionaries in Xian already of course, but there were likely few if any western industrial ventures there yet... and that would be a monopoly to have as textile factories opened up.

The rap on the door was unexpected, and he twisted towards and took two steps before he looked at the clock hanging on the wall. It was after ten in the morning, and that made sense, he had been in the room long enough that the next bounty of papers bundled up must have gotten in. "We have a problem." Bert remarked as he rested a hand on his paunch as his other gripped the rim of his hat, "Well problem is a misnomer, but it could become a problem. Did you get Chu's telegram, of course you did," Bert shuffled into the doorway to look at the records, and nodded, "So the Russians are in debt, up to about their eyeballs. You know this, the whole operation down there is a mess." Which was of course the Russian concessions fault because it was in Hankou... that and the Russian steel investments were, lacking in some respects. "Now, the Japanese, and the French for that matter have both been eying it for years. The Russian government certainly doesn't want to sell, but realistically they're taking on water, and whether you don't like him or not Hayashi has made a point that is hard to refute."

John Allen crossed his arms, "Let me guess, something to the effect of that political instability has caused the russian concession to be overleveraged relative to its earning potential, and that given that instability it would continue to accrue debt, so that they should sell it to Japan." And presumably the French weren't happy about that idea, which wasn't anything they could do about, "Hankou is too far south for us, how does it effect us?"

"Russia ain't gonna give those up. It'd be a slap in the face to national pride. John Jordan is worried it might literally start another Russo-Japanese war," That seemed a little much, "But they're not the only iron and coal ventures Japan has been eying. I know we sell coal and steel to Japan and both Russia and the French might assume that makes us friendly to their position." It didn't of course. Japan expanding its own manufacturing wasn't exactly desirable, but it was no secret that Russia's influence had been steadily eroded for years slowly pushed out of the country not just by Japan but also by its nominal allies England and France. "Which of course brings us to the matter of the banking consortium because of the situation a few months ago with the British and American side of loans."

"Have you cabled Edenborn?"

"I have."

"Colonel McCulloch?"

"Yes. And yes I have sent cables from the Tietsin office to most everyone back home. Our financial capital is not the issue. If Japan keeps its attention basically south of the yangtze, then fine, but Hayashi looks like he's going to maneuver to want more and he'll cite Bai Lang, and the recent revolution, and if what I'm hearing is right Jordan is worried that besides international disorder we could have another revolt kick off in the south. Shanghai isn't exactly the most stable of places."

"I'm going to see Nicks and see if he's settled in yet. I'll make time in my schedule for visiting Peking, and we'll see how far out ahead of this we can get." The reality though was that... was that Hayashi had probably been scheming this sort of thing as soon as he had learned he was to take up his position to be minister given that word of the loan had set the south off again. It certainly seemed as like that he'd given Bai Lang those rifles knowing he'd cause a ruckus to make the country more unstable.
--
Commentary: Now this is fictionalized. Yes Japan had wanted to buyout the Russian concession in Hankou and the steel industry as it was indebt to Japanese lenders. (This was actually a pattern of predatory Japanese lending that would pick up in the next few years, and would show up during their 21 demands). However this is fictionalized in that I don't have primary sources that suggest there was a move in december of 1913, on a push to move on those.

John Jordan's alarm here stems from two historical facts firstly he was initially dismissive of the idea of a revolt sparking from the railway loan agreements, thinking it an exaggeration, and he always regretted not paying more attention to that. Secondly early in this year (in 1913) he had already been worried about the consortium's loans causing problems even though he signed off on it, and this came to fruition. Now historically Jordan was absent from China from June to November, but had been instrumental in securing for the north China government, and Yuan a substantive amount of money a duty he was still able to perform due to the telegraph. He had very much good reason to be concerned about something tipping over just now stabilized country.

Reinsch, historically, during this period is another matter entirely. He well historically was by even his own account not all together accustomed to the business of money lending. The US mission had at the time other priorities, and far less concern about for example Yokohama Specie Bank. The US mission statement was maintain the status quo, but their greater concern seems to have been the restoration of confucianism as the state religion, and the dissolution of parliament... in that order. (The US opinion of the banking consortium was dismissive, and questioned whether it should be involved in such things at all.)

And nominally speaking the US was not a British Ally during this period, but England, the US and Japan were all relatively good terms and publicly quite friendly to one another. [Wilson's administration and the State Department is complicated, and not just because Bryan and Wilson, but also this is prior to the war.] The problem being the UK had the problem of being allied to Russia, Japan, and France. The Japanese and French alliances with the UK had been reaffirmed relatively recently [1911 and 1912 respectively], and the Anglo-Russian alliance a few years prior to those. There existed a concern that China might again prompt a scramble for africa esque mess (as fears with the morocan crisis had stirred concerns that things might escalate to war then).

Now of course that didn't happen and in the following year the one austrian who might have been able to talk the old empire back from war is the one who gets shot giving Konrad and friends the great excuse to get their war on... and well 1914 then plays out.

This is kind of the mid season / half way point mark of the story going into 1914. That will eventually see the battle of Xian, the dragon banner, Bai Lang getting shot in the face, and then of course the unfortunate telegram epilogue oh by the war were declared in europe.

Theoretically White Wolf might actually finish going up this year. In terms of timeline much of the army as it will exist in July of 1916 will have effectively been stood up, and exist. [That is to say 3500 troops] And July of 1916 is where the following story in the timeline opens, world war 1 has been ongoing for two years and Yuan Shikai is now dead with the resulting fraction of the country dividing it into open warlordism. That eventually will lead to the division into the warlord cliques and then to actual full on territorial control after the Manchu Restoration attempt.

Now in timeline terms WW2 era stuff gets divided into the Main Story 37-47 [the bridge incident through the Tokyo Tribunal], and the Destroyermen side story which I will work on more when we get further into the timeline. In between then and the post ww1 time frame the inter war years the next big story even will be post Sun Yat Sen's death and Chiang's northern march and it failing in the face of more developed or less devolved northern cliques. In terms of territorial gain, most of those territorial expansions are further west, but again that will be in the future. [As I said, there is a good chance that White Wolf will finish this year, it chronologically goes through Summer of 1914 and the war declarations of that year.]

 

[Imperator Pax]

Speaking of Buddhism, since I've already mentioned the 21 demands Japan is going to make, and then after that I'm probably going to veer into the whole issue of Bushido.

So technically the 21 demands itself, according to Jennings Bryan then US SoS, were considered less bad than they'd been expecting. Bryan wasn't happy with the demands, because it flew in the face of the US's supported open door policy, and Japan did moderate its demands, but they were initially put forward in January of 1915 to Yuan's Government. The general consensus was that this was a stupid move, because well world war 1 was on, but the demands would have given Japan little that they didn't already basically have. The Group Five demands however were in many respects based on the ongoing Japanese colonization of korea (which had been annexed in 1910, but had been increasingly under the Japanese sphere of influence as far as the 1870s) and Taiwan. Shinto basically has minimal footprint in China, it was exported later, but Buddhism existed, and its from China that Japan imported buddhism originally, but Shintoism pre Meiji was a completely different animal to begin with... and Buddhism in Japan underwent a lot of changes with the Meiji revolution.

Group 5 laid out that Japan would be able to set up schools, and form a buddhist society to create a coherent policy 'advising' is one translation I see a lot. Obviously Japan didn't want to export Christianity as Christianity was kind of a mess in Japan, and in particular in Korea where it was strongly tied up with Korean Nationalism. The running of schools and buddhist temple structure would have among other things given Japan a local counter to western missionary and education. The french for example during this period were the center of socialism in Europe, and would even into the thirties be involved in sheltering anarchists, socialists and communists and other various radical student groups in their concessions, as well as exporting catholicism the latter as part of official French national policy. The French position, and support for socialism, was something that the Japanese genryo didn't appreciate.... which is of course ironic since the KMT basically ran away to Japan. (Admittedly this might have contributed to the post Taisho crack down on socialist ideals in Japanese society, but thats speculative)

Anyway Japan after WW1 starts goes to throw its weight around, misjudges the situation upsets Britain and America (I can't find a Imperial Russian perspective of the whole thing, which is odd because especially the Manchurian concessions were clearly about diminishing Russian influence.) and does pretty serious financial strain to Japan's trade economy during a period where they were doing very well otherwise. Japanese exports to China drop significantly during a period where Japan is one of the few big exporters left in town. This is good for the US to an extent, but Japan really shoots itself in the foot, because this is really the period of time where Japan stops being a debtor country and is actually running a trade surpluse and loan money to other countries more than being loaned money to.

And accepting the reduced set of demands is really what sets the stage for weakening Yuan Shikai to the point where the National Protection War is set up to break open the country. Yuan declares himself emperor, and thats what sparks the NPW, and and declaration and the acceptance of hte 21 demands is enough that it sours a lot of his previously reliable allies, some of whom simply sit the war out in their new provinces and others actually side with the rebels. Its very likely that Japanese played both sides, supporting both Sun Yat-Sen as well as Yuan Shikai during the national protection war as Sun's return to Canton from Japan also coincided with material aid to rebelling southern provinces (The price of this aid was of course to be making good on concessions Sun had proffered to the Japanese during his exile, indeed the Japanese 21 demands seem to have been in some part based off of concessions they extracted from Sun in 1913).

And basically Yuan wins the National Protection War, Sun gets run out of the country again, except well despite the Beiyang army demonstrating its still the best army in China (if by decreasing margins, due to defections of various Dujun) Yuan passes away not long after, and he dies as president not as emperor. He abdicated as part of the peace process. This is important, because again we turn to John Jordan, John Jordan as a diplomat for most of his career was very pro Japanese, he was a staunch supporter of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, but he opposed, misliked heavily, the entry of Japan per that alliance into ww1 against Germany, specifically because it would in his opinion (and vindicated by history) destablize China further. It is probably for this reason that Edward Grey didn't inform Yuan of Japan's ultimatum to the German concession in August 1914, and John Jordan wasn't happy about that. [The Foreign Office supported Grey's position, and the Japanese position on Tsingtao's seizure.] Now ultimately John Jordan's mission statement, his objective, was preservation of British interests in China, and he opposed the 21 demands on those grounds, and because of British interests he wasn't supportive of Yuan's pursuit of the monarchy. He felt it would destablish the country (which apparently the Japanese agreed, citing the possibility of unrest in the south, but that JOhn Jordan didn't feel was accurate. He was basing this on Shanghai, and Canton (and this was before obviously Sun came back from Japan again). In any event at this point the Russian minister to China, joins with Jordan, and the interim Japanese charge d'affres to basically say this is a bad idea, though it seems that as with 1911 Jordan had underestimated what was going to happen (or he blatantly lied to Grey, but I doubt the latter). The regular Japanese charge d'affres takes offense at this in december of and basically gets together with his Russian, French, Italian counterparts along with Jordan and basically states that there will be a foreign intervention in China if anything happens. (Yuan delays officially citing the Chinese new Year, and I don't know what Reinsch was thinking during this period, he seems from his own statements to have been caught off guard by this whole mess, and his committment to the open door policy may be why he got left out, also his disinterest in the pursuit of the banking consortium probably also contributed.)

Whats interesting of course is that Jordan proceeds to call on his government (As well as Japan) to support Yuan in the National protection war, specifically citing apparently American intention (America as a neutral power) to support Yuan Shikai. (I can't say for sure at this juncture but I'm pretty he means the State Department under Jennings Bryan, but Reinsch doesn't seem to really be clear on what it is he wants to do about this in but he wasn't particularly thrilled by it. (In fact he doesn't suppress any kind of kind of strong emotion for the whole monarchy affair). According to Reinsch all the foreign legations in Peking seemed happy with Yuan going to a monarchy... so I get the feeling from both sides that they weren't really in frequent communication with one another. Violence ensued, with the revolt in Yuunan, which Jordan explicitly states had Japanese support (which is not a surprise because Cai E had received some of Bai Lang's rebel troops at least some of his surviving equipment from those troops who had been on campaign in the south in 1913).

[Japan over the course of this seems to flip flop back and forth, as a result of different cliques within the government taking different sides, as I said above Yuan received aid from Japan, but there was clear Japanese support to the south as well] John Jordan, Grey, the Japanese and the United states in combination with discussion with various dujun (military governors) start trying to work for a peace solution. The US advocates for the return to the status quo. The British Consul-General in Canton basically states with certainty at this point that the Japanese are financing and arming in the south, and this was reported to also be the case in Shantung.

Yuan basically breaks down, abdicates goes back to being president and then basically dies. Which is the goal of the war was Yuan doesn't get to be Emperor, then yeah victory, if Yuan's goal was to reconquer Yunnan then yeah he lost, but if the goal was to remove him from power by military victory, it failed, hostilities had ground to a halt after Yuan abdicates. This is really the point where Jordan truly sours on Japan for good, and this is really the point at which the warlord period breaks open. yunnan remains defacto independent even after Cai E's death in December.

It is here however we move to talk about Japan. A great deal is made about the japanese idea of Bushido, and that Japan is this collectivist country that is often turned into (especially in WW2 propaganda) of an insectoid hive mind of collective national will. Bushido as an ideological concept was only popularized in the 20th century. It entered the western consciousness with Inanzo Nitobe's book and from there was adopted by Japanese militarists because it was popular with westerners they were exposed to, and what I mean by this is that the meiji genryo figures like Yamagata Aritomo didn't think of Bushido in the way that Nitobe described. This is because Nitobe basically took his long time interest in western ideals and couched his description of the soul of Japan in terms of western chivalry equivalents. There was no unified concept of Bushido. The Hakagure was written by an 18th century clerk lamenting a bygone era that he'd never lived, and it specifically addresses the correct behaviors of people from his clan not as a universal this is how everyone does it. This is something that gets missed, because when the Samurai were dissolved as a class those distinctions and domains didn't vanish. Aritomo had his own ideas about what was best for the country and fought strenuously to protect the rights of the meiji elder statesmen but also of his specific domain, and this was the beginning of the cliques in Japan. Aritomo did stupid reckless shit in the Sino-Japanese war that could be described as 'bushido' but could also just as easily be explained as aggressive prussian military doctrine. Nitobe's book is basically fiction written to appeal to a western audience, it didn't sell well in Japan originally, and Hakagure in much the same fashion was basically all but forgotten.

If any true vestige of bushido as it existed in the edo existed in Japanese culture after the samurai were dissolved it was in the fractious infighting of the military cliques rather than in the national identity. The arguments ,which often disolved into assassination and murder attempted coups based on slight political differences, and regional discrimination. This ultimately probably contributed to how Japan would act in the second world war and during the interwar years, but it would be very inaccurate to say that was the only influence. Japan was heavily influence first by the French militarily and melded well with their concept of elan and the cult of the bayonet (which admittedly was also a clear part of Russian doctrine continuing into the Red Army as it was going into ww1) rhetoric to the extent that Japan was was asked as part of the Anglo-Japanese alliance to assist Britain's bayonet fencing training. (this is why the ww1 SMLE have Arisaka pattern sword bayonets). Indeed the attacks on Russian positions in the Russo Japanese war were lauded by Britain. However those bayonet charges were wasteful and reckless, and probably unnecessary. The Japanese viewed those attacks however as what had won the Russo-Japanese war because of unreliability in their ammunition supply, particularly for artillery and their lack of ability to coordinate artillery with attacks in no small part because those attacks were often ordered without input from higher command.

Ironically the Imperial Russian Army took the Japanese bayonet attacks against their fortified and seem to have have assumed the same thing as the Japanese thing. That regardless of the casualties the attack suffered a bayonet charge works. (Notably Pershing and other US observors in the RJW disagreed with this conclusion). However the following Japanese experiences at war provided confirmation bias repeatedly confirming that bayonet charges worked time and time again up until they faced prepared allied defenses, and in particular the much more reliable US coordination of machine gun and artillery (and to a lesser degree the effectiveness of semi automatic rifles). The Japanese in doctrine outright derided this thinking in the interwar years rejecting that any defensive fortification of machine gun and artillery would really stop a concerted attack because their own experience and coordination in their army was very poor. Infantry was the principle Japanese arm of battle, much like many other armies, but the Japanese army underwent much more limited specialization and had far fewer specialist roles, and those specialist roles were not treated with respect. Logistics, and artillery officers were not afforded the same degree of respect in the Japanese army and that only continued to decline in the interwar years all 'based' on the 'lessons' of the Japanese victory against Russia in the Russo Japanese war, because a key part of that mythos was that once again Japan had only lost at the negotiating table (which of course made a convenient excuse to blame the diplomats, or for that matter ignoring 'weak willed' superior officers).

Notes, exta, Japan's 21 demands were issued after Russia (and this is 1915) issued new demands to the Chinese government, but it the driving force for the 21 demands were within the Japanese cabinet, and seem to have been the personal project of the foreign ministry without consultation of the elder statesmen. (Again, how much of Yamagata considering it a blunder was who's idea it was we will likely never know.)

 

[Imperator Pax]

This is a follow on to the Rambly Social Science stuff, and specifically how it relates to the fictional story, but first some more historical backdrop. This is probably no more 'spoilery' than any of the Behind the scenes content over is in the misc thread under extras. So when I say 'i suspect' I mean me personally. Now what I mean by this is that there is a lot of coincidental time involved during the National Protection War, and also yes various British officials and sources say Japan is backing the rebelling southern provinces, and it is accepted that Japan provided support materially and encouraged some of Yuan's monarchial adventure. (He received money and guns). So first and foremost National Protection War is a pretty grandiose title for the conflict, and the anti monarchy movement is probably a better one, but even it or any of the anti Yuan sentiment slogans run into well... bluntly the reason a lot of scholarship says 'this is where the warlord period really started being' is because the south was not unified.

British sources plural state that Japanese material aid was supporting distinct different groups. Cai E in Yunnan, anti-Yuan force in Shantong, and Sun :Yat-sen and his movement in Canton. (and I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but Sun seems to have come into Canton from Japan, and then fled the country apparently some time in March or April of 1916, after Szechuan had fallen to the Beiyang. As it stood Sun's perennially had this problem was he never had a military to speak of, he had a very hard time getting military officials in Canton to listen to him, give him much time of day.) Now this is the thing, I would almost lay money that multiple factions in Japan were picking sides and backing different horses in this race. Hioki for example (the regular charge d'affairs for the legation) had apparently been offended by Yuan basically ignoring him and he seems to have gone out of his way to then cause trouble and stir the pot. (and in the case of John Jordan, Jordan seems to have seen this behavior as very unprofessional and it did not help Jordan's opinion despite for some of Hioki's actions Jordan being onboard with it, Hioki just keeps escalating and he was probably responsible for some of the aid, potentially what came into groups in Shantung).

So as I've stated in the RSS the British opened (much as they did in 1913, 1911) attempts to a 'peace conference' or 'congress' relatively quickly into hostilities opening. Cai E doesn't seem to have been involved in that at all. In fact most of the negotations seemed to have involved either pro Yuan Beiyang Dujun, or the Dujun who had declared neutrality. Cai E pretty much said 'I'm independent' and that was that. He didn't seem to care what the international response was. Anyway the result of this is that along with the US and the other participating countries in other capacity Yuan is talked down and into abdicating and going back to just being president... but the damage has been done. The dujun the military governors he appointed have demonstrated that they can ignore Peking's directives, and get concessions, that they are king maker in politics. Hence Warlord era.

Yuan's passing hit the international community rather suddenly, the head of state dying was not regarded as a good thing because Yuan even diminished was still viewed as having a role in holding the country together, and that was not a position that anyone was prepared to fill... and that results in a relatively well managed succession crisis in which Duan Qirui steps into being prime minister but gets Li to be the new largely toothless president. This is what leads to the foundation of what will be the Anhui, and Zhili cliques historically and is what erodes the northern military advantage further.

I've mentioned in white wolf that Yuan was trying to downsize the military that he had to upkeep, and before the 'Second revolution' had wanted to stand down tens of thousands of troops from his already reduced to half a million man army in summer 1913. Yuan had attempted to start a fresh of reforms and downsizing due to both financial concerns and loyalty concerns (well founded given defections and independence declarations from Dujun he appointed). One number suggests that at Yuan's death China had a half million men under arms, and that that would increase to 700,000 soldiers in 1917, and this number would continue to grow. And this is the important part of that, some sixty percent of that number, give or take, was thought to be in northern china. Sun Yat-sen was thought to in 1919 represent a motley collection that totally 130,000 troops who's officers demonstrated in that year that they could ignore him whenever ever they felt like it. (Best demonstrated by the warlord of Yunnan paying lip service to the KMT officially but running Yunnan independent of the 'canton based government' even basically into the second world war. He had about seventy thousand troops in 1919). This doesn't touch equipment, or training or any of that. Also it doesn't touch the various 'neutral armies'.

With that lets pivot to the store material.

Technically speaking the cadre or what will be Xian can be thought of in summer of 1916 as falling into one of two categories, either as explicitly a Zhili faction (at this point, that is in 1916) they're still headquarted in the western half of the province) or as one of the neutral armies. However in 1916 the Zhili-Anhui clique split is not fully developed, and could be considered part of the Anhui clique despite location. By 1917 its more clearly a government in itself, an independent or 'neutral' faction. Pays lip service and nominal taxes to Peking, and is loosely involved in the beiyang apparatus of status (not unusual in 1917 given that the other major northern cliques had tens of thousands of smaller neutral 'associate' troops participating in a similar manner, which is actually part of the problem.) See in summer of 1917 President Li finally manages to get enough support to force Duan to resign the premier ship.

No Li has basically no military of his own, and the south which nominally supports his presidency and is happy by Duan stepping out really isn't in any position to help him when Duan basically thats fine I'm quitting I'm going to tiestin and then walks out of the capital (well gets on a train) with his entire basically army leaving the capital, and a bunch of Duan's supports had been calling on him to ignore Li and keep the premiership so they basically start declaring independence in a measure thats quite similar to what the south had done to Yuan in the 'national protection war' except we're talking substantively larger armies than the south had. Li goes 'hold on guys' and invites Zhang Xun (the pigtail general) to come and mediate this. The guy who has never cut his queue, queue Manchu restoration.
WW1 started in summer of 1914 and it is in that period that the White Wolf Rebellion ends petering out because Bai Lang has been chased in the hinterlands (where he was far less welcome and had far less support) and killed Japan takes Shantung and the 21 demands get sprung. So the open door policy can be loosely summed up as foreign trade (or at least great power and important other european countries) were supposed to be inviolable to a degree. Extraterritoriality was a well established concept. The national protection war though doesn't really effect things. In 1915 the Cadre is making money by basically exporting food, raw materials and finished goods to allied belligerents (that it to say, the British empire and her allies, i.e. Japan and Russia, and specifically iin Russia's case small arms because they in particular are buying whatever they can get, especially if it can be built in 7.62x54R). This continues even following Yuan's passage, though by this point sale of arms has declined, and will decline, as Russia's need for emergency procurement drops through 1916 [as it did historically.]

[Now Duan Qirui starts his agitation for the 'republic of china' to enter on behalf of the entente, he wants the country to declare war on Germany and friends so he can have a seat at the peace table (this is one of the things president Li was especially thrilled with, and Sun wasn't either in 1916... by the time that Duan finally gets that war declaration in 1917 well Sun a month later in September follows suit from his 'government' in Canton).]

The Cadre keeps up business as usual, and will continue business ventures out west. In 1916 They have 3500 men under arms and is expanding from that (this is what will be standing up basically at the time of 'war were declared' in Europe, and what they will stay at until Yuan's death). [For reference when Pigtail General restores the manchu emperor to the throne in a year he has five thousand troops to fight what Duan Qirui's fifty thousand]. In 1917 when that manchu restoration happens the cadre exploits this and takes over de facto most of western Zhili, and effectively secure their western flank into Shensi, and Shanxi (Yan Xishan's province). This is done, this legitimized in the name of, because Duan Qirui goes on to claim, and provide some (possibly fabricated evidence) that Pigtail general had been paid by the German Empire to do this thing, Manchu Restoration bad, Royalist sympathizers (like the nominal civilian governor of the province, emphasis civilian) are removed from power.

[Qirui also accuses Sun Yat-sen's people of also taking money from the Germans as well basically saying thats why they don't want to declare war on Germany and it kind of works, cause Duan comes back to power in Peking throws rewards around to people who supported him, and gets his war declaration]

So now Duan is back in power, and he's on the allied side, 'hey japan, hey england, hey america (the US had entered the war in April) we're on the same side, I need to train and equip a new modern army to fight in europe' (or as was suspected by the legation, fight against the South). This is the political lead up to what will eventually be the state that will exist in 1920 when Xian basically becomes is own clique still a neutral army (that is one that isn't vying for Peking) and lets Fengtien, Zhili, and Anhui clique just do their thing.

Remember how I said that whole 21 demands thing came off as heavy handed to the British and the US didn't like it because it fucked with Open Door, and how Hioki's actions in particular but his perceptions of conduct overall during the Northern Protection war had soured John Jordan to the Japanese as an ally. This whole warlord development has a pretty big impact on the international community in China especially once ww1 ends. [Admittedly that will only be really showing up in story content once we get through 1919, and after moving to Xian.]

 

[Imperator Pax]

December 1913
Part 3​

There wasn't a problem landing the first shot. The recoil was prohibitive though, Bang's rifle had a similar problem, but wasn't quite as severe even for a smaller man. Alfred at least seemed enthused, rather than discouraged. "That's three inches," Forrest the elder remarked measuring his own group from the hundred meter target. The magazine of the rifle was reloaded and handed off to the Italian naval attaché to give him a go at it, and they stepped back to watch.

The enlarged browning 1900 to accommodate the eight millimeter was an excellent distraction from the prospect of machine guns, especially as Alfred, and his Italian friend had both brought their mauser pistols along. "Its very impressive," Alfred remarked.

"I'll pass that along to Sam." He deferred as the Italian naval officer finished sending the fifth round down range. From a mechanical operation perspective the Browning action had needed little difference to handle military rifle cartridges and their load, such was the strength of the action's design. Sam was right though the recoil was prohibitive in the way the action worked, but it was a trade off with not having to come off to work a bolt.

"Has the boy worked up a price," His father asked.

"Only been told it'd be expensive."

"Any guesses?" Alfred's attention had turned to the discussion. "You surely have some idea as to the amount of work to go into it. I mean you've worked out the problems with the barrel manufacture I know that much."

Allen frowned, blown barrels for the Mausers had been part of the reason JP had insisted on installing pyrometers to make sure heat treatment was even and consistent rather than the eye balling the color of the metal like Springfield still did. "As for cost," There was the machine work obviously. Cuts. There was barrel, the springs... the stock... treating the wood. "Northwards of a hundred dollars."

The elder Forrest straightened at that, "I hope thats for making the hand copies, Jesus." The two Americans turned to the German Admiral.

"I believe exchange is four marks to the dollar." Alfred commented stiffly.

... and the Franc was about five, where as five bucks went to the Pound. "Griswold is doing work to the design, but its a tinkering project in his spare time. Realistically we'll just build Paul Mauser's rifle." The 1907 introduced some other features, ditching the langevisier made sense for cost.

"You are on speaking terms with him, he would be interested in this."

Most likely he would be, "We'd have to get the lawyers involved. This is based off of Browning's patent, and the fellows who wrote up his patent apparently did an iron clad job. Paul would have to pay royalties to FN given they have the rights to sell Europe as I've been told, and well," He chuckled, "And well Old Mauser would not be thrilled by that." and the same was true in the states, just the same with Remington's rights, unless some judge were to rule that the work needed for make the rifle work in the larger caliber was sufficiently different or innovative, which he didn't think it was per se... "We have some of the corporation going to Europe who can tell Mauser about the idea," but the last that Mauser had talked about in the idea had been for some other mechanical system he had hoped to develop.
--
The old man leaned back into his chair. The fire place going, its chimney working in the old palace Allen noted.

"Figured you'd be busy with winter and all?" He certainly had been last year. Coal production without rails was often confined to very nearby locations, but since he was effectively the rails, and the manufacture of engines the cadre had the advantage that they could dig coal all year and stockpile it. Not only did that make it so that they had fuel for the trains in reserve it also made it possible to sell coal to the cities. Horizontal as well as vertical expansion as it was called, "With the trade barriers coming down what are the chances on oil?"

Standard Oil, before the great Kerfuffle in 1911 had been involved in pushing the oil trade, but their main office... now it was Standard Oil of New York... was in Hong Kong, and after the revolution, and now this past year... "Not especially good, Rockefeller still sells kerosene into China, but between their court cases and the shooting everything is at anchor."

"Doesn't that mess you up, oil locomotives are the future and all?"

"They are," And the designs were sound now, "But we produce coal,"

"As I recall McCulloch's boy has found oil here."

"Bill has found oil yes." and even if the Qing had stayed in power they'd have spent years fighting off claim jumps attempts by Russia and Japan, and Mitsubishi would probably be the one to win that fight in the end without the state department really coming through. They had yet to really amass the capital necessary for large scale exploration anyway. Bill was sure there was oil in the country though, "Standard being broken up was another delay I'll admit," But almost as much was the British failure to link north south china in one single continuous rail line... which was hardly John Jordan's fault the man had tried to keep everything going. Still if Standard had still been one great kraken there probably would have been more interest in oil exploration, but that would be capital intensive. Drilling rigs, and all the rest and the searching was just out of the question. "Texas oil is cheaper to import, that's true of gasoline, or kerosene for that matter." There was a much larger demand for the latter.

"The minister," Reinsch, "Is uncomfortable with the situation. The banking conglomerate doesn't sit well with him, and the Brits shaking around makes everyone question the status quo, but China's financial insolvency..." He trailed off, and then reached for his glass. "The fact the Chinese don't have any kind of domestic corporations just throws him. He understands the guild systems at least an oblique way, but he talks to Yuan and doesn't seem to understand half of the mash."

"What was he expecting to find?"

"Japan, of a generation, or two back, but the Japanese had their clans to keep things together. Their last dictator stepped down for gods sakes, and then joined their legislature." Word of the last 'Shogun' Yoshinobu's death had been somewhat buried in among the other news going on, "The Japanese were more bottled up the Qing were, and I'm sure Perry showing up gave them a shock, but it isn't as if Europe was all that industrialized in 1800. You still had feudal princes in Germany for gods sake."

Europe had industrialized late, was still industrializing. Any pretentions to the contrary they had been playing catch up to the England for two on centuries. For countries like Germany that meant not having the false starts, but France was still having to import machine tooling from America and had been doing that since not long after the war between the states had concluded itself. Weber argued that the reason for such was the protestant work ethic, or some lack thereof in Catholic moral upbringing. That a good catholic looked not beyond the station they were born into... which of course must have said the Irish were terrible catholics. "I am all too familiar with the condition of Europe during grandfather's day." He remarked getting up and walking to the decanter and opening it to refill the glass, "And of the challenge of change. Japan's Imperial Army is a very much a different animal than Yuan's Beiyang."

"In spite of their shared love the Prussian lessons." The old man leaned forward, "And Japan's example is what, especially with the breadth of expenditure Yuan engages in, the minister expected to find. He has this riven mess." They were meandering again. The old man had been dragging around weaving some kind of complex net who's only common thread was money, or perhaps resources invested, or influence... the shadow game of power. Apparently he had decided to move beyond searching probes for information and responses, "Reinsch is uncomfortable with the situation of the country. He in particular doesn't like the business of loans necessary to keep the government afloat given the indemnities of previous wars."

He nodded in response. If ever he needed to rebut the notion of European supremacy it would root in the facts touched earlier. The continent of Europe, and her great powers there of had not industrialized but in the last century. England's sprawling colonial empire, in specific her now defunct 'East India Company' had chartered before the Qing dynasty had been founded. Access to coal whether in England, Belgium, or the United States made things easier to industrialize, and there was probably some intangible thing... what the Japanese called seishin that had allowed the explosive growth from farmers and craftsmen to industrial juggernaut. That was however the work of great men, whether singular or by banding together. "I suppose he takes issue with the international committee responsible for tariffs then?"

"He would, and does, if not for Adams constant prattle about corruption."

"Adams?" Allen misliked this turn, and set his glass down without drinking.

"The good doctor has been ferreting out all that he can on railways as run by everyone, and your ties with Yuan are well known. Rockhill had covered where its possible, but the opening of the line out west has achieved its reception." If you hadn't wanted to travel the perilous lengthy terrible roads by wagon, assuming the wagon wasn't enjoinder-ed by mud, or waylaid by bandits, the canals and ships by river were the best way to travel to Xian previously. The same was true of many, and such the term gunboat diplomacy as British steam ships had made their way against the currents and now other banners had joined them, "If you're aiming to do something whether you want to tell me or not, you should give Rockhill notification so he's prepared to defend it."

It wasn't as if they'd ever build a north south rail line, anyway. The British would have taken it as a slap in the face. John Jordan had spent literally years in and out trying to get it done since he had left from his previous post at Seoul... "Well as I have no interest in embroiling myself in the sort of mess that sparked off the Qing being toppled, I will not be building any lines to Canton. Xian has a million people living in that city. They have kerosene lamps and now they have regular access to the telegraph, and the locomotive." Despite having been put in his original position by the revolution of 1911, Zhang had accepted the more formal position of Dujun from Yuan Shikai last summer and much of that had been to keep General Ma from settling any lingering sentiments that might have existed between their respective societies. "I expect in terms of business the factories there will keep me quite busy." It would never be a company town of course, businesses should never get into the habit of minting their own currency. "I should think that I will spend the months after spring begins in the city."

"I will phrase that to the minister such that it is an economic matter."

"It is."

"A city of million men in the deep interior? If any rebel were to take it, I scarce imagine that modern gunboats would be sufficient to dislodge them if they had modern arms of their own." The elder Forrest jerked his head towards the map, not unlike the one in his own office, "Bai Lang has split his armies, Yuan has cut the ones in the south off from reunited, but they were by last word continuing south. Duan Qirui is chasing them through Anhui, but they are moving west. Perhaps Bai Lang means to run all the way back to Baofeng City, to make a stand there he certainly has the popular support."

He thought of Henan, and the coal mines that during these months of the year in particularly would be mined by farmers with no other income... or worse the ones who had to drudge that ten mile track as coolies. Such men were recruits for Bai Lang army, as had been demonstrated a year ago when he'd been stirring trouble before going east, and south. "You don't think he will?"

"I'm not stupid you blinded his uncle, he'll make the attempt to come. Honor lets him do nothing less, and if you move out west hanging out a shingle promising wealth, he'll see that grudge of his with the Wangs." The Wang family was dead now. Bai Lang had swept through last year and burned their family home to the ground, "And right into waiting machine guns I suspect. Or those German howitzers. That is the plan isn't it?"

"He has to come out west to find out." Allen replied and took a drink. "He might not do that, Qirui might catch him yet. That will be fine with me, as I said father, its an economic matter."

--
Commentary: So ends December 1913, not technically. Technically the next 'chapter' will cover Christmas and New Years but its (the chapter) titled 'the New Year'. So to touch on some points before I go on the design of full power semi automatic rifles had a number of pursuing developers. Sweden, Norway, Denmark, France, and Germany all were looking at the concept. Kjellerman, Bang, both are ones who come to mind. Kjllermann even did a long recoil gun like Browning's Model 8. The french would go to field the Chauchat and had preceding the war several competitions to try and find a design that worked, including long recoil designs. Mauser played around with toggle locks. In China General Liu who has been mentioned and will appear off and on during the following story designed a rifle to bear his name that operated on a blow forward mechanism (like Bang's rifle, or the later Walther self loaders of world war 2), and it was designed to also be able to switch to a bolt action rifle like the mondragon. Bang's rifle would be in 8mm Mauser (even though he did want to originally do it in a 6.5 apparently.)

The dancing around the economics matter in this chapter as we approach the end of the year is sort of necessary to give the idea the scale of monopoly. Vertical and horizontal business expansion was a common practice of companies during this period. So getting into coal mining, and then steel manufacture, and farming for local consumption all feeds into doing things in house (this isn't uniquely American, actually its originally an English corporate thing (company store might be associated with American corporations, but that was an English invention, but you would go on to see it with among others Japanese Zaibatus, Korean Chaebols, and to a lesser extent with German Concerns or Cartels). This is important because in this period in 1913 Allen and the corporation is a business not an empire.

Internally getting caught up in the 'follies of the east india company' is the exact opposite of his goal. (Mind you the East India company's failure was more a matter of internal corruption than anything else, the Nabobs is kind of an interesting crisis in itself). I attempt to keep things somewhat within the realm of reasonable possibility and yes I could include more detail... and the more I write this the more I'm like to myself... 'yeah I need to cover more' or go back and write the events of 1905 in korea, or 1911 (which would stretch into 1912). Regardless the plan is to try and get through June 1914 by Christmas That way in the new year I can start posting the events of 1916.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The New Year
Part 1​

It was monday morning, three days before Christmas.

The last two weeks of the year were always the worst, and of course technically with the way post was he'd be receiving letters penned before Christmas that wouldn't get in until probably the end of January. If not for the threat of Bai Lang they might have made a show of going down to Shanghai for New Years again, but that was certainly off the table.

Tietsin would be the farthest they'd go this year, and more of the parties and gatherings would be in Peking. Missionaries prattle aside the season's gatherings had nothing to do with Christ, or converts, the current crowds in the Glory Hotel were a sign of Old China changing. Changes that had started during the Qing, and had slowly reached even Manchu princes before the ancien regime had crumbled. It was fashionable to go to big soirees, and most of them happened at this time of the year. As had become normal the throngs of people crossed every race found in China.

Shinozaki sat his cafe au lait to one side. "Minister Hayashi will be at the Christmas party," He remarked in crisp English. One more voice in the language that was the most commonly spoken in the hotel. Everyone spoke English to one another in the building, and that was true of similar western establishments in Peking, or Tietsin, or further south in Shanghai, or Canton.

"I'd like to think that Zhang's promotion to field marshal is enough of a salve." He doubted the pigtail general was prepared to make much of a fuss. "Unless you expect Hayashi to try and bait him into a provocation." Shinozaki frowned but didn't vocally confirm that. Hayashi might have been samurai by blood, but he was a career bureaucrat and civil official who's entire political existence ran counter to old man Yamagata's ideas about how a government should act... of course that partly because the old man loathed the idea of political parties, and it was no secret he distrusted Hayashi's handling of foreign affairs... but the old man's power wasn't infinite, and there had to be compromises between the various cliques.

"The minister has gone beyond his remit in supplying those arms to a bandit, especially a bandit with such uncouth political leanings."

... he had to stymie the urge to point out that Hayashi, and Hirobumi had both done similar things in the hermit kingdom... since of course it wasn't as if certain Americans hadn't also been playing the game, "The game is the game Shinozaki." He replied reaching for his black coffee, "Hayashi makes mistakes and leaves traces, but I don't think we'll find any direct telegraphs between the two." Duan Qirui and the Beiyang had now definitively divided Bai Lang's troops the southern most force that had been nearing Nanjing had been forced increasingly further south, and towards Canton, and would probably keep going south. "Its no secret that Tsai O had Japanese connections, and we both know him and Bai Lang studied together in Japan with a clique of other cadets."

"They have diverged politically."

Allen had his doubts Yuan had directly ordered Song Jiaoren's death, but that didn't preclude Zhao from thinking he'd be doing Yuan a favor. Yuan's culpability in Luzhen's death in 1911 was a less murky accusation, it was less of stretch, "They've both have their grievances," Tsai was more conservative, or at least was more inclined to moderate his political broadsheets than Bai Lang was, and right now proving they were communicating was near to impossible. "And Tsai still has ties to Japan." Yuan's accusations regarding the expatriate community in China weren't exactly unfounded. "Don't get me wrong, Bai Lang has support in Canada, and the states we know that. I wouldn't be surprised if he had some kind of support from the Russians." Which would bear looking into. "John Jordan is right though the break down of the banking consortium risks another scramble for Africa here."

"And that is undesirable." Shinozaki agreed finishing his sentence.

Japan loaned money to China. Banks like Yokohama Specie bank weren't the only involved, but Japan as a nation took loans from the United States, and from Great Britain. Japan's alliance with the latter included contracts with titan esque firms like Vickers, who had built Kongou. "We're tied up with Mitsui, both with them directly, and through our own ties with Vickers. Mitsui is hardly the only firm we do business with." No, a stable China meant a market everyone could participate in, that was the whole crux of Washington's open door argument, and it was an agreement that the British were on board with, and it seemed most of the time that the Europeans did... but he supposed once bitten twice shy the Japanese still remembered port Arthur and the triple intervention at the very least.

Allen stood up. He understood, could understand those international connections the best, and perhaps it was because they were involved in those dynamics of industry. Perhaps that was beyond Shinozaki because he lacked that frame of reference. The young second son os a samurai family wasn't old enough to be involved yet in those sorts of ventures. Or even if it wasn't a question of age Allen understood the economic side better than Reinsch's patent insistence on international law for the laws sake, and for agreements regardless of other incentive.

Bill swaggered through the door, "Ah shit I thought you hadn't heard me with all the yammering going on out there." The texan drawled.

"We all still have work to do." Allen replied.

"Early Christmas present." Bill remarked tossing the wood case to Shinozaki. "As to work, I got a cable from back home." The army had been south texas for near on two years now due to Mexico's clusterfuck.

"Villa?"

"He's got brass ones I'll give him that."

--
The rail whistle blew, and the engine huffed steam powered, coal fired, and the locomotive took down the track. This particular train was one that cut west, up into the plateau that was Shansi, it would eventually take a junction north to Taiyuan, and there offload its equipment for farms in the basin. An investment that most people didn't see the point of. The argument some more astute observers, just wealthy merchants, would have argued was the self interested one of investing in the more northern city of the province, Tatung. Maybe in time, but it wasn't the banks Allen wanted a stake in, but the agricultural land fed by the Fen river.

Shansi though had fallen on centuries of neglect. One a proud portion of the Kingdom of Wei it had been forgotten on the periphery of the Qing dynasty. A great shame given that it should have been a province the invited investment and influx of capital... but it was too far from the coast, and the foreign concessions... and like plenty of other places it had its share of bandits.

That was why they were making the investment. In the hopes that Yan would return the favor, and that this would benefit everyone in the end. Shinozaki's files had included the governor of Shansi, and the five years he had spent in Japan. Reports that were by and large favorable from his instructors, Yan was doctrinally in line with the Imperial Military Academy from which he had graduated from in 1909. Yan's writing while academically sparse supported the doctrinal reasoning of Nagoaka. It was interesting reading to be sure, though of course Shinozaki had not brought the files for the cadre, it would be embarrassing to admit to spying on ones nominal allies. The files had to exist of course, and Shinozaki had actually blushed at the notion Reinsch had requested the cadre memberships service jackets, and academy records.

Yan was in simple terms a spencerian. Solely viewable as a personal flaw was the fact the governor of the province had been on good terms and quite fond of Ito Hirobumi. That was something to which Allen could overlook, as Yan's own recollection and participation in an anti-boxer militia highlighted enough of shared sensibilities. Shansi would hopefully prove a good investment. Farms first, and then they'd diversify, probably eventually into precious metals like silver, and gold.

His musings were interrupted as Cole threw in beside him, "Well lets hope we get the chance to finish this wolf hunt and we can go back to what we should be doing."

"Agreed." He replied.

"I got the blind set up." Cole said continuing his hunting commentary, "Just need Percy to deliver the rest and let him come to us." Because of course if they advertised enough, well they were in part banking on Bai Lang's pride, and then taking him in a double envelopment. "Honan, and Anhui is crawling with Beiyang troops." Which of course Bai was probably doing his best to flip and turn against Yuan Shikai with offers of better pay and benefits. Those sorts of inclinations were far from unheard, but realistically unlikely to yield much in the north were Beiyang regulars received regular, and steady income. Payment in silver was all well and good, but bandit life was unpredictable, and the bigger danger were modern troops who had revolutionary sentiments to begin with, even if greed wasn't to be dismissed.

"I've already started drafting and proposals for the business side of things," The vickers guns meant originally for Spain would hopefully be here in a month, and from there they could, "Cao Kun has said he's passed along what we know about Sow Gorge, and last that we heard the garrison there was about five hundred men. If Qirui, or that Feng guy wants a shot they'll try after the New Year."

"I heard you put your hands on some Carcanos?"

"Yeah, I shipped them to Griswold his tinkerers already have a solution."

"To?"

"The ammo problem, he's going to rebarrel them to 35 and I'll issue them out to the artillery section." Cole replied.

He looked into the gray afternoon sky, "Try and keep a low profile in Tietsin Cole, its not Percy specifically, but some of your fellows probably make Edward Grey a little nervous."

"Which ones?" The other man questioned, "This the paddies, or boers?" Cole shrugged and tipped the brim of his hat with smirk, "Don't worry brother John, I wont bring some yankee bag of hot air in from New York to pass the plate around for Sein Finn. I'll make sure none of my guys get on the soap box."

"I'll appreciate that." The truth was he didn't care all that much. If the Irish wanted independence that was fine but most the guns and money and the biggest voices in the movement were Americans, and a little more concerning were the socialist and anarchist firebrands who'd been exiled to the continent. Percy was quick to try and play that up, and dismiss all of Irelands problems as rabble rousing stirred up from persons abroad, and that wasn't true... but there was enough truth there it would complicate buying from the British.

--
Commentary: So it is the end of 1913, and with world war 1 around the corner the British Empire is basically at its height. Yes after ww1 it will reach its greatest territorial expanse, but the Empire before the war was already showing structural instability. What I mean by this is partially demonstrated by some of the above. The alliance network tied Britain to foreign conflicts, in much the same way as it dragged other nations into it. Most of Europe was convinced that ww1 would be a short war, only a few german generals recognized it wouldn't be, which in hindsight, with the benefit of looking back it seems odd, but in recent memory Europe had either avoided, or had several short wars with minimal or even no changes in territory both inside and outside of Europe proper. Now some people classify the history of the British Empire as in this period either second or the third Empire (Obviously the First is interpreted to from roughly the 17th century to the loss of the American Colonies, while the second is sometimes measured through the napoleonic wars until or through the rest of 19th century).

This is important because again Europe industrialized late. France especially was not a particularly potent industrial power stymied for a number of reasons despite going on to carve out a much larger colonial empire than say Germany. German steel manufacturing among other industries had over taken England proper by the latter half of the 19th century in manufacuturing and both were pale in comparison to the Industrial Juggernaut that the United States had emerged as. More than that though the bank of England was now being out competed by, and as world war 1 would see Wall Street is what permitted the Entente War Effort to its victory, along with American industry, and not the AEF. The AEF played a role but it was not the systemic one in achieving victory, but economics is boring and unsexy.

However the power of US monetary influence already existed in the late 19th century as far as england was concerned, and this shaped British policy, particularly in Ireland where effort was made to shape policy in Ireland to avoid causing an incident with the US (and its powerful Irish-American lobby) and this is long long before stuff like NORAID.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The New Year
Part 2​

Hina had shed her fedora and settled into the chair until one of her maids had prepared drinks, and then withdrew back and out of the way until she was needed. The fact the woman was even in the room though said plenty. "I was under the impression that business was good." The hotel business, this was hardly Hina's only hotel after all, but all the fuss down south didn't really seemed to have effected Peking in the first place... not from an international travel perspective. "Is this about," She dismissed the maid before he could continue, and he raised an eyebrow. "Is that a yes?" Japan officially gobbled up the old hermit kingdom in August of 1910 not quite a year after Hirobumi's oh so tragic death. Not that his death would have prevented, the Japanese had been trying to claim Korea since the eighteen seventies... or the fifteen hundreds according to some people.

She didn't respond and sat there, so he sat back and reached for the cup. They waited. "It took time to confirm, but as was suspected Thomas had support from the French."

If that was intended to be shocking, or some kind of revelation it wasn't. The only thing potentially surprising was that they could prove it, "Well we knew it was probably them." Not that he was complaining. France had been Russia's ally for a long time, and Thomas's ties to France weren't exactly a secret... and had been something the Japanese had delicately stepped around in the trial framing as solely a criminal matter. The Russian pressure during the trial had always been curious, but that could have been French influence or just outright sympathy for the man. It wouldn't really effect England though, the English had been fait accompli to Japan's annexation to Korea... "Do you mind if I ask how confirmation was achieved." It wasn't really a question, he very much expected one way or another an answer that he wasn't going to like. "Ae-sin?"

She shook her head, and he felt his eyebrow raise again, "Would you like to guess again? I am sure we can play this game a while yet, we have hours before the party."

He ran through a list of names in his head. No one immediately sprang to mind, not with Eugene back in Washington, Ishida was supposed to be in Osaka... at least last that he'd heard regarding the man... but in the scope of things... she was right it could have been anyone. Russian and France were allied, and collaborated in their mutual interests in Asia. The French paid Russian arms merchants to support groups that they didn't want to be seen directly supporting, which of course said something given the French's willingness to supply arms in southern China before the Qing had fallen.

... the idea that this information had come out of Shanghai made sense. France and Germany had been slow to industrialize with it only really starting after Napoleons murderous rampage across Europe, and of course the French were even now perpetually trying to chase the hey day of the imperial might. Catholic reapproachment under Nappy and the French Empire, had of course emphasized that politics made strange bed fellows. Shanghai's French quarter had every sort of revolutionary in it. Anarchists, Socialists, and whoe ever else broke bread with Royalists and Dominionists and the lot, and under the French auspice had access to arms from Europe that the French were loath to let anyone stop them from bringing in. That kind of barely controlled chaos though had been normal, the French were largely just seen as hands off, and Shanghai was a gangsters paradise anyway.

He stood up and started to pace. "It could be nothing, or it could piece of the puzzle we didn't realize was even missing." Hayashi had been in Europe for a couple years, sent abroad as a promotion that was also no doubt designed to keep him out of trouble, or from causing trouble... but it was just as likely that his time in Italy had allowed him insight and information about the European powers. The Arisakas Bai Lang had received might very well have nothing at all to deal with the situation. The French supplying funds for arms through the Russians in Manchuria was a poorly kept secret at best, and even if it wasn't they might well have been meant for checking French influence in the far south of the country. Chess was a game with two players, but the real world wasn't nearly as clean as a nice walnut board.
--
The elder Forrest watched the party unfold. They would be basically going to one of these a night through probably first couple of days of the new year. The amount of French pop by itself though was probably an eyesore of a receipt, never mind all the rest. It seemed like every year though since the fall of the Qing that these soirees in Peking had gotten more and more extravagant. The old man sipped his drink, "I'll admit I hadn't considered where the French might have been involved either. Hirobumi's assassination though, and the French involvement with the bandits," The Righteous Army, or armies now given that they were a collection of disparate and politically distinct cliques, "will probably amount to nothing."

Which was also true, or at least probably... the truth was it was a reminder that there was just one more variable in the equation. "Unless they start shooting people in the streets." Or the train stations again.

"Its Shanghai," They already do that, went unsaid but heard all the same. The old man didn't care, he'd filed the information and it would make its way back to Washington but the squabbles between the French and Japanese were likely to be an entanglement that the new President had no interest in becoming involved with. Such un gentlemanly behavior would have caused a ruckus in the halls of power back east. The elder Forrest had other things to contend with, "You're sure Isaburo isn't a threat, there are concerns."

He wondered what was going on. "Can you elaborate on that?" The truth was he stood by his earlier comments. So long as he could handle the bureaucratic matters, and play with trains Isaburo would have been just as happy interacting with other people at a bare minimum. It was a distinction between father and son, Aritomo had no qualms about looking someone in the eye, and maybe it was the fact Isaburo was uncomfortable... probably thought it was rude or something, to do that... Isaburo had never been in the army either, which had to seem strange to whoever it was writing the old man.

"The entire reason for the mess in Korea was the allegation that it could be used to invade across the straits. Whatever poppycock of improving Korea said afterword, doesn't matter if its true or not, that was the reason. The opposite is true. Isaburo's trains as you put it, so long as they can run can deliver hundreds of thousands of Japanese soldiers into Northern China." As opposed to goods being shipped from China to ports to carry them across the straits. "Isaburo seems to expect as much funding as Formosa receives, which ordinarily wouldn't be a concern by itself."

Or rather in the preceding administration it wouldn't have been a concern, because banking was normal there, "So this whole matter has nothing to do with Isaburo, and its everything on Peking."

"You can't know that. Modernizing the hermit kingdom means Japan can support expeditionary forces in Manchuria, and its no secret they want the Russians out of there. Washington wants leverage to keep everyone on policy for an open door China, which of course was contingent on Japan and France not scrambling for territorial concessions... or anyone else for that matter." This came from Bryan then, the tone, and the fact it was from Washington, told him it had nothing to do with the new guy. This was coming from the US capital, which meant that this was exactly like the British problem with Jordan and Grey. "Us stepping back from the banking is causing a rift in the state department that is poorly timed. "

That threw him for a loop. Not so much its contents as the statement. The British banking consortium and the US one turning finicky were for different reasons of course, but it made the whole international consortium a nervous wreck. They were the two largest suppliers of capital to the program of loans after all. Wilson's position that the US had little purpose in the affair, or at least the government didn't of course would have opposition from the state department... "So where does that leave Reinsch?"

"Right now, I think he's about to speak," Allen hadn't even noticed the minister, and frankly the salutations from the midwesterner to the assembled mixed race crowd was near to perfunctorary... and the man's holiday speech would have been right at home to the attendants of the university. Everyone politely applauded all the same Reinsch's talk of international law, and fellowship in the christian season. There was a noticeable difference from the way John Jordan had addressed the gathering an hour earlier, and everyone had to know that.


--
Commentary

... and now for some humor with a brief look forward to ww2 from the perspective of a British Gentleman, "The northern chinese are a martial people. Xian is a city with industrious fellows, but they're the Prussian Junkers of the orient, and they well I say, when they speak english they sound as if they're from Texas. A martial people through and through I would hardly be surprised to hear one declare 'you are courting death, sir.' This unpleasantness with the Japanese demonstrates this well enough the Northern Chinese grind infantry charges to grist with the weight of guns..." .c 1938.

And now we discuss the great game, which is generally epitomized as the struggle between the Russian Empire, and the British in Asia, specifically Afghanistan and its neighbors, but more can more broadly be thought of as referring to the massive and complex arrangement of economic and military factors of Imperial power as a whole including the scramble for Africa, the banana wars, and of course China. The above quote, and the segment today relate to commentary on foreign matters. The above quote is called humor because while it might be taken as complimentary its something of a backhanded compliment, Prussian Junkers is not a complimentary statement from most Englishmen, and of course its in the vein of comparison to a European power. Speaking English in an American accent of course something that would be somewhat poorly received by the English. and since this is 38 he's comparing the conflict to WW1 in a way, saying its being fought like the Great War.

But in the more current matter this is an era where the US foreign policy is confused, and naïve at times. Reinsch's actions in 1914 act like WW1 isn't even happening at times (and yes the US isn't a belligerent in 1914, Wilson's first administration would go on to campaign about keeping the country out of the war) literally going on holiday while the siege of Tsingtao is happening that fall. Reinsch goes sightseeing in southern china its a supremely strange situation where you have John Jordan's like running the sky is falling, but the US ambassador is visiting temples and having a merry old time. He actually writes about this, and is fascinated by this as an academic... pre war its certainly somewhat excusable you know go to tea, have conversations with other academics kind of things, he just feels out of his depth. He spent a lot of time lecturing on international law, without really grasping practical affairs. Like again to compare Reinsch to Jordan, Jordan didn't like the bankers but he still recognized that whether he disliked it or not it was clearly in the British Empire's interest to make the situation work. Like John Jordan is indignant is offended, is upset by Japan's behavior, Reinsch is like 'but why is Japan doing this?'

 

[Imperator Pax]

The New Year Part 3​

He had not quite been ambushed by Rockhill, and the old man had given him time to make rounds at the Christmas gala. He had of course been expecting it, and the man's characterization of Reinsch as naive, and unprepared for the political realities were painfully accurate. The man's time, and official position before the change in administration had been a careful balancing act. He was after all the man who had drafted the 'Open Door' Policy that was the cornerstone of US policy. "Reinsch has a painful fascination with the fanciful notion of universal suffrage," The older man remarked, which wasn't news either... nor was it that Carol, the Mrs Rockhill, was of the opinion that China would be better off with something akin to the government of Russia, with a Tsar... that was to say going back to having an emperor but with a tsarist like system of governance, which had surely made for an interesting conversation... and one that John Allen was glad to have missed. "Aritomo might well have a coronary if someone told him that every man in Japan should have the franchise."

That was true. "He certainly wouldn't be keen to the idea, precisely though Reinsch has no connection to Sun so far as I've been able to discern."

Rockhill nodded and lifted his glass of bourbon, "So far as I know as well... that isn't to say the doctor doesn't have friends in our government, but Reinsch is her because he's the president's friend and is a very well read scholar of law and society. Our farmer's republic has had the vote for men since near to its inception, and the professor seems to have taken that for granted. Our Chinese friends hate western costume, well save perhaps the soldiery, but even Yuan would prefer to wear his native dress and even would still wear a queue if it were permissible. Look at Zhang he'll wear his prussian jacket, and breechs, but its still in Wu Wei black, and he still has that ponytail."

The Field Marshal was down and across the floor engaged in what looked like loud, if jovial conversation with members of whom Allen recognized as the Royalist society, or members of their political wing. With Parliament dissolved their representatives were in Peking, but were mostly here for social soirees like this.

The conversation slowly turned to the issue his father had warned of, "Adams's fooling around will be lucky if he doesn't spark another set of riots. At the very least I should expect the French legation will make official complaint," Rockhill was quite partial the French, so he would know for sure, "couple all that with the loan business, and the bankers, and the presidents distaste for business of money lending. It is a mess."

It was that. John Allen reached for his own drink, paused, "If Adams is raising such a fuss... presumably he needs records."

"Oh he has them, the southern doctor made sure he had unfettered access to any sort of rail document, official fees and commissions and Sun's own inspectors went with him, everywhere. The new one, Sun's replacement is... less inclined. He doesn't want to rock the boat, and have a bunch of fellas get upset with him if Adams trawling steps on more toes than it already has."

Or was in the process of, like the states China had no shortage of newspapers, and even now Doctor Adams was at one of the small tables looking out over the floor and the ornate Christmas decorations complete with new colored electric lights engrossed in conversation with a pack of muckrackers. That hadn't escaped Rockhill's attention either. The old statesmen nodded as John Allen returned his gaze from the mob.

"That isn't even half of them, and Adams, and Reinsch too think this is the states with the progressives running rampant. Each one of them would like to be that Tarbell woman, or Sinclair I suppose."

John Allen, the Cadre as a whole really, took the paternalist position in most respects. The men worked in eight hour shifts and earned what were by Chinese standards exemplary wage for other reasons besides just their own well being. Eight hours kept the men sharp, and cut down on accidents. High wages meant that they could buy the goods they helped to manufacture. The housing the companies built and access to western medicine kept the whole matter running smoothly. It was little different than how a number of stalwart industries in the states were done. "What does Adams make on the matter?"

"The word feudal I would report was used, often and vigorously." He shook his head, "But with the hour fast approaching I think that is enough business for the evening. Information is a gift in its own right, but I am fresh from the land of the Pashas." He declared broadly, "And I know about that set of fine dinner ware you had set away for Carol, and I."

--


New Years eve had been a blur, unfortunately, in his memories. The sharp pain in his eyes were Yuan's fault. The general, and president had let the liquor flow like a great deluge and made a party of it. He broken out sticks and great detailed figure models to engage in the Prussian tradition of war gaming in his palace's game room, and that lasted nearly into dawn's hour of the new year before the last of the armies had retired either vanquished or their 'generals' agreeing to the draw.

Bill laughed. "Come now vanquisher of the Tai Ping," A French officer had effectively lead the Tai Ping where Allen had held command of Gordon's tigers, and lead them to, "Your army remains ever victorious." The texan was too damn loud.

"Breakfast first," Allen grunted settling into the chair and the great continental spread of fruits, jams, cheeses, and all the rest of the fixings before him.

Bill thankfully let the matter rest for about ten minutes. "So its 1914." It had been the first of January 1914 for hours now. They had received and replied Edenborn's telegram of felicitations ushering it with in ten minutes of the bell tolling. The thought was punctuated by the eight o'clock bell.

"Before we get to business, best go to see that Shinozaki isn't dead." The young Japanese officer was tall by Japanese standards, but Shinnosuke was.. well Allen probably had fifty plus pounds on him, and a good six inches to be sure, and Bill was taller and more robust than him still. Not that that had stopped him from heroically trying to keep pace with the Texan long after Sam, and JP had both put aside their glasses for the night.

Bill scoffed at the idea took a bite out of an orange imported from California, and marched off. Shang made his morning appearance before Bill returned, which was not a particular surprise, but that he had brought Percy in with him, was.

"John Allen, do apologize for dropping in so early." Percy glanced at the continental spread, "Don't so I could impose a bit for a little more substantive measure to break my fast."

Allen waved, "I was craving eggs actually, sausage," And Bill had grown up on plates of beans for breakfast, and once the expanded breakfast was ordered for the Englishman fished over his bad news.

"I do hate to start the year so poorly, but the ministers and the foreign ministry have been at it." He commented pointedly ignoring Shang's evident displeasure at the Indian being in the room, or at least and being armed in what was a relatively bleak overcast Thursday morning… the conversation followed in English of course. Percy's Chinese was passable of course, but it was obvious despite years in North China he had been trained to speak for a post in Hong Kong by the British colonial establishment.

The news he had though was relevant. It was no secret of course that so much of the KMT was either influenced, or directly supported by the overseas Chinese population. Song Jiaoren had made a key plank of his campaign a dedicated effort to win support from land owners in the countryside as well as the emerging middle class of the major coastal cities, but the overseas population had greater access to both money, and necessary items for the revolutionaries. "Current estimates from the Dominion," He meant Canada, "Suggests the ring in Vancouver has supplied some three thousand dollars American in value through a mixture of legitimate revenue and the theft and other illicit means." Percy paused, "Oh, I'm sorry that is for the month of December alone, gentlemen."

The admitted incomplete list of purchased weapons that were now presumably on ships bound for China, or had already made it ashore, included everything from Mauser pistols, Colt and other revolvers, to further shipments of Ross Rifles, to an abundance of Remingtons, and Winchesters. Still if there was to be any good news from the invoices it was that the ammunition volumes listed were painfully small. That, and of course and he saw no machine guns, or any sort of other artillery to which was included.
—

 

[Imperator Pax]

1914 Part 1​

Bai Lang had not remained idle, in a surprise pivot he had departed his wintering camps in Honan shifted east, recrossed into Anhui, where he had been campaigning in November and commenced to a pillaging well in excess of what he'd been up to before. That should have actually been a relief as far as news went, even accounting for Percy's warning regarding guns flowing out of Canadian cities like Vancouver and Victoria to support the White Wolf. It wasn't, among Bai Lang's latest victims were a French spy... well officially he was 'just a catholic priest', but it wasn't as if Allen hadn't known the man was a spy... Whether or not Bai Lang had known was debatable, but since it was known to the US and the British, Hayashi had probably known so it wasn't impossible that such had passed to the brigand. He probably hadn't, but it didn't matter.

It didn't matter if he knew or not. It didn't matter if he had been a spy. The public didn't care. A French national, and a member of the clergy, was dead and that was enough to put the French into a furorious clamor (and demand further concessions of course), and spook the missionary community just as they had been starting to settle back down. So, no this shift and pivot back into Anhui was not actually good news.

"Do we tell the state department?" about the French sneering to Yuan behind the scenes...

"I'll mention it, I'm more leery about telling Jordan... or Japan for that matter." A pause, "Everything going on and all,"

There was the shuffling of feet, "Speaking of ongoings with England and Japan," Griswold muttered, "This business in the papers,"

"The army is investigating,"

"Thats gonna be great," Someone to his left muttered, and Allen had to agree. Obviously the Navy had just been caught with its hand in the cookie jar so to speak, but with Navy Prime Minister, and Siemens having explictly admitted to bribery over the telegraph of all damned things this was going to get messy... or rather already had.

"Mitsui is involved too," Another member of the Cadre added stirring the pot. Not that it needed stirring, but the whole thing was a great way to start the year, "I mean they had to be given their siemens's side of things." The man continued rambling on as looks were exchanged. Not that bribery was unheard, far from it. The British might have had laws against making such overtures, but it was no secret that it happened, and as long as it stayed out of the public eye the English had been lapse... well selective about enforcing it. There was no telling though how Berlin would react to this.

... realistically if it had been an army scandal telling Japan about the French machinations on rail development they'd probably raise a fuss, "I think we should go ahead and tell Shinnosuke, if he passes it along he does." It was not the sort of thing to put in the telegram, but if it was passed to the Army headquarters in Korea and then on to Tokyo well then that was that.

"Should we really be getting involved in the Army Navy game?"

They were involved. By participating as a foreign observer in the Russo-Japanese War Allen had defacto picked sides, and realistically the Japanese service branches had a tendency to transpose their associations to other countries the same. If you were army, barring select distinctions, generally assumed to be at least sympathetic to the Army's political objectives. The bigger issue was getting involved in the factional cliquish tendencies that sub divided the army, and this might have been easier if Taro hadn't gotten the cancer. "We tell Shinnosuke, he does with it what he will."

"And assuming your pops hasn't heard," Bill interjected leaning on the table, "We'll tell him. He can tell the new guy," Not that Reinsch seemed like to do anything about it... "Be easier if Rockhill was still in the job, even if he'd be partial to Paris's position."

He'd rather Hayashi not been ambassador to Japan. It was so much easier to abide agreements between gentlemen when you didn't want to shoot the son of a bitch, Allen nodded, "The Beiyang are scrambling the divisions under Qirui, but the move back into Anhui have taken them by surprise, and its going to be expensive." Which if the French were angling for more concessions in exchange for money would still have likely set the English off, even if the French were angling under the misunderstanding with the bankers of London and Jordan late last year. "We didn't expect Bai Lang to do this, and doubt anyone else did either, but he can engage in the whole sale looting of Anhui to feed his army." Which besides allowing Bai Lang to rampaging through the countryside would make Yuan Shikai look bad, and probably piss Yuan off, which was probably the point.

--
He tossed the Tokyo paper on the desk, and shook his head. There would be a Diet inquiry, but that was no surprise... it didn't help the Navy had been preparing to ask for an even bigger budget of course so that had been latched on to as well.

Cole snorted at his expression, turned popped the latch on the trunk to inspect the delivery.

"Did you want self loading rifles or not?" He demanded.

"I'll take them, but the business of the matter is always going to be keeping them clean." Cole shrugged, "I'll have the commandos start with them immediately, but the fact that its designed to switch to a bolt action still irks me."

"Please don't let Perce hear you use that word," Graves would go into conniptions, or have the vapors... or both. He was already leery of Cole's volunteers when they'd been strictly mining and other technical experts, never mind when they'd been armed during the Xinhai as part of the Railway Protection Force.

"Don't see why he's so finicky Dennys is pretty well rehabilitated. England letting them have self government and all," A snort as he worked the bolt of the rifle open, "If you ask me Graves is just putting on airs." Which could very well be true, but that wasn't the point, "I'll have the guns taken to my 'gentlemen volunteers'," Eye roll, "And the sporting club will evaluate the guns from the perspective of amateurs engaging their favored hobby."

"Alright, go on then."

Cole passed the elder Forrest on the way out, "The vickers guns?"

"Indeed. The Spanish contract order, as well as the guns the Mexicans decided not to pay for from Neuhausen."

A nod. "As to the other business, it doesn't matter about the priest's other activities. Washington doesn't like priests getting killed, and the papers back home are already clutching their pearls over the matter. As to the French machinations on Kwangsi," He reached inside his jacket and pulled out an envelope, unpacked the papers and laid them out, "Reinsch likely hasn't time to get through them, with all of his sight seeing, but when he gets back it'll probably upset him nearly as much as it will Grey." Though for different policy reasons of course, Open Door versus British Sphere of Influence games. "We will see how that plays out."

He did wonder what Reinsch's response would be though to such a flagrant French violation of the existing status quo when the secret agreement was put out... of course Yuan's government hadn't agreed to anything yet, but they probably would... and of course Kwangsi to Yunnan was one thing. "What?"

A set of second papers appeared, "As if the French weren't agitating enough with that, they also want to run a rail into Szechwan which will certainly put the English up in arms."

It was all southern China, and well beyond his own sphere of influence... but this... "The second of the opium wars, China was able to drive the French out of the province then,"

"Lest you forget, the game is the game." The elder Forrest replied, "And they have a point, The British inability to get the proposed linkage of a single line running north south has proven an issue," Never mind pesky little things like rebellion that had made such difficult. "That is ultimately just a fig leaf to trot out, and the Brits will just turn to bang on the law, and then to just make things more complicated is Japan's interest in Hankow."

That was still far enough south he was uncomfortable trying to reach down there. They just didn't have the resources, and Washington was to prone to being pulled in too many different directions. "So it is," He agreed, and quieted lamented the habit of endlessly litigating disagreements that such disagreements so frequently resulted... which of course would then be ignored entirely if one side thought they could get away with, which was almost surely going to be the case here. He had been ordering his thoughts but the old man spoke up.

"What are the chances this will cause Bai Lang, or that he is already in the process of, making another pivot south."

He considered, "I think that would predicated on if this news," if it came out to the general public, "stirred something along the lines of the Huakuang Railway debacle," That which toppled the dynasty as John Jordan called it. "You disagree?"

"The British are opposed to any further expansions, 'encroachments' as they would say, into the sphere of influence into the Yangtze basin. France and Russia have agreed to support one another's existing conditions in the valley, but," The Russian coal and iron works were hemorrhaging money and had been for a few years now, and not in any small part to being out competed by Japanese competitors, and Japan who wanted more say there, "Japan will inevitably push for more influence... I don't think they could afford the foreign entanglement at the moment... in that respect the scandal is useful... if only that it buys time. Now would be an ideal time to promulgate whatever economic machinations and planning you have in Shansi."

"We're already in the process of that, besides petroleum prospecting, and new mines, coal in particular will start to switch from replacing imported sources," And China had imported vast volumes of coal simply because the inefficiencies of the domestic mines largely still labored as if it were the middle ages with only limited use of dynamite... and that was ridiculous. The country shouldn't have been imported some two million tonnes. "And we'll increase exports to Japan commiserate over this year, and next. Iron and then steel will likely follow suit," or would have since the principle consumer would have been Japan's domestic shipyards, which was something of an uncertainty if the Navy was being investigated.

A nod, "I would get that out there, given the other mission to Europe that's running." He half expected that to turn into a crack about five year plans for corporate expansion and development, but it didn't come. There were no comments for or against moving towards acquiring aircraft, or even a pivot towards more machine tooling from the state... just the matter of what was sure to bring in or at least look at whatever new developments in arms Europe had invented.
--

--
Commentary: So it is now February of 1914, this starts the last stretch of chapters leading into June and then the epilogue that will conclude the period of the timeline basically prior to Yuan Shikai's death, with all of the effects that will have on China. Obviously the epilogue as I've said is the news that Europe is now at war, that what will be the first world war has begun with everyone mobilizing. The next part in this timeline will open after the fizzling out of the national protection war after Yuan Shikai's death in 1916; so sometime in late July 1916 after Duan Qirui has taken up as prime minister in Peking. Yuan Shikai's death, and Qirui's power struggles mark the separating out from national authority, and also comes at time where not only is world war 1 going on but also that as a by product of that and the internal struggles there are a lot of external pressures.

[White Wolf should be somewhere of the ballpark of about 100k words, 1916-1918 will probably be shorter than that, but not substantively so.]

As I mentioned in the Follow on extra when the Manchu Restoration happens in 1917 is what marks the transition to autonomous zone or region, and this change in status coincides with other events internal and external, but is important for what happens in 1918. Never mind 1919, when on May 4th​ the riots break out in response to Versailles, or on May 5th​ when John Jordan and the diplomatic body introduced the Arms Embargo.

As is often quoted Stimson who will be heading State at the end of the decade would go to say that 'Gentlemen do not read each other's mail.' Which of course is utter poppycock the US had been intercepting cable traffic, and reading mail since at least the civil war, and the intercepting of mail by post occurred during the revolution (and quite frankly probably before, given the colonial sentiments in the 1760s and 70s, but that's harder to prove.) The idea that we weren't, or shouldn't read other people's cables may have been intended as we shouldn't read our allies, but given the context I think Stimson was probably just out of touch with political reality. And yes, historically Russia didn't encrypt most of its communications until well into the first world war, and that was intermittent at best at times. This would go on to plague both the Reds and Whites in the civil war where it was relatively lackluster and this only really changed in the late twenties where most countries began to make the cryptographic improvements that world war 2 often talks about.

To sidebar back to population, Chirol stated that China had a population of some eight hundred fifty million inhabitants (compared to fifty million japanese) though it does seem like he didn't write everything in one go given his essay has some time matters. (Specifically 'august 12 last' referring to the renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, which means that the completed paper was probably published no earlier than 1912, yet I don't recall any mentions of the Xinhai revolt having taken place. This is interesting because most of the British distrust of Japan began to circulate after the rebellion, and only really began to build up in British East Asia policy wonks following 1916. (Also its hilarious to read British versus American perspectives on each other.)

 

[Imperator Pax]

1914 Part 2​

They had a business to run... technically he supposed the proper term was conglomerate... especially with the mass of lateral movement. Thus he wasn't sure Percy's comment on East India Company was quite a complement. He certainly hadn't appreciated the remark either.

The was a shuffling of papers, "I got to wondering if we're wrong."

"Huh?" Bill looked up from his inventory of ... whatever mine or exploration the drilling equipment he was working on at the moment.

"About our wolf problem, what if yeah he wants a capital, but if he's trying to steal a march on Nanking? And, say that's what all this is about."

Allen paused and considered it. Could they have? Yuan Shikai had managed to take the one time Ming capital twice now... but then how many failed rebellions had Dr. Sun been a part of. Had they misjudged their opposition, certainly the departing winter lodging and marching back into Anhui suggested he was up to something.

Bill spoke up before he could compose his thoughts, "Then Duan puts paid to him with his guns. Everything we've seen Bai Lang has no significant artillery," and while he did have a few machine guns they were few and far between in every instance being employed to give a bandit force a force multiplier and weapon of terror against unprepared provincial troops who were at best outfitted with 88 Gewehr. "Shit he's been run off once."

Griswold, "That's my point Bill, we assumed he was moving to Nanking to support the rebs," No one commented to the irony of the usage, here "That is probably what he was doing, but Sun has been run off. He's in Japan. Bai Lang has the last army in the field, and the only one from 1911 still opposed to Yuan Shikai."

Which was something a stretch given Bai Lang had run off in 1911 to hide back home, but he had been girding his strength, or building it and recruiting people for his army ... and for a time at least in 1912 he had been ... he had been, "That might be," Allen paused, "We need to get this finished though, Qirui is in Anhui with a sizable enough force," A couple divisions, so there was nothing they could have done, "I'm more concerned with what all Bai Lang was involved with before this whole mess boiled over. Bai Lang never agreed with Song Jiaoren politically,"

"Song getting shot in the train station definitely makes me think Bai wasn't going to moderate any further than he had been."

Allen had never really expected Bai Lang to moderate any further. The vendetta with Yuan Shikai ran too deep, Bai Lang blamed him for his mentor and patron's death... that would take blood to resolve... but for 1912 or part of it at least Bai Lang had been relatively civilized. He had been a more genteel sort of bandit as one paper had called him, and plenty more had been comparing him to Robin Hood... some still were. It had been possible to sit down and drink with the man before all of this even if Jun had never approved.

The more he thought about it though... it was actually appealing if their read had been wrong, "If he is about to try a march on Nanking, if that is what this is, then that's good for us. Xian is going to be a massively lucrative market. The new rail line gives a direct link to the east," There had been talk for years of bringing in foreign investors to try and overhaul China's aging canal system that had languished under the barren conditions of the Qing era finances as money had constantly gone to other projects after all, and they had money for it. He leaned forward and began rifling for the paper work from line, ran a finger down to the sums, "Fourteen thousand dollars," He frown, "Per kilometer, why is this in kilometer?" He grimaced at Bert's office notations in the corner of the paper, or more likely one of the man's subordinates, "Is revenue. That's the average of the quarter." They were going to have to change the kilometer measurement before the numbers were put out to the rest of the cadre, and sent to the others.

"Expenses?"

"Just under fifty eight hundred dollars," He replied mechanically. "Line isn't at the point where we need to make any improvements, once we get to full steam,"

"Sixteen to eighteen," Bill replied, "More if oil prospecting turns out, but coal certainly, iron and steel working in a couple years."

This was the sort of thing to which they should have been dedicating their time to. The railway, and the industries in a city of a million people. Clocks, and drills and every other sort of modern tool to make the work day... "If we're wrong and he's marching on Nanking that means the city can be focused on without having to contend with fighting Bai Lang, and if he's just distracted this gives us more time to fix damage done to the city."

There were some nods and comments to agreement of that. "Where is he now?" Griswold asked.

"Liuanshow last we heard. Whether he's made it to Hefei," What had used to be called Luchow, "hasn't been said one way or another, but that was the direction he was heading, and the papers have said he's sent runners and criers to distribute flyers. Down with Yuan Shikai and all that."

"Best guess is he means to loot the city, take what supplies he needs to march on Nanking then." Griswold shook his head, "He'll try and stir up whatever support he can, and let his younger hot heads run rough shod over any resistance to try and get them some seasoning.

That was possibly true, "Bai may be able to take General Ni in a fight, but only if Qirui doesn't get there fast enough," And if he did beat Qirui there if he couldn't take the city, and hold defensible ground Qirui's guns would be unmatchable advantage even if they did keep the red leg to a rather sedate march compared to a predominantly cavalry force. "I don't know where Qirui is though, and with the way the rails are all tied up and crisscrossed," and never mind all the varying gauge sizes to contend with, and the problem that made for stock in that part of the country in particular, "He might have to go north and then come back down to get to Nanking." Qirui, especially being in the field, had to know that of course.

He returned his attention back to their more mature lines noting that this collection of accounting documents were correctly settled in a final draft per Mile of track for reporting. The older lines despite the need to be improved on or other expenses were of course more productive per mile, or kilometer when converted. They had also generated more revenue over a longer period of time, but they were talking a more complex network stretch which had other factors in the long run.

Xian was going to be great, lucrative, especially once they branched out into banking, and insurance over time. They just needed to be sure they could hold it if Bai Lang did decide to again suddenly jink course and return to his native province and then from there head west.

Griswold swiped for the new line reports, "Any thoughts on Kokonur?

"I know Cao Kun has been asking." He replied, "Cao has been talking with Will Straight, and there is talk about the banking side too. Williams over Far East thinks that would be good, but the President of the United States doesn't like money lending." Cao's position was understandable for a lot of reasons, "The Ma clique hasn't said anything publicly yet but I suspect some of it is coming from Cao's inlaws, and the appearance of showing the rewards of loyalty."

"The Russians going to get prickly if, 'in we go to far north."

He wanted to scoff, the Russian Asiatic bank was constantly short on capital, but always quick to bluster about wanting to build new railways including long talked about line from Harbin to wherever its new alleged terminus point would be without anything ever happening. The Russian lines were fine, and the ones that were up and running employed a hundred plus thousand 'Imperial Subjects' as the Russian Minister was prone to banging on about when the question of territorial rights of the Empire north of the great wall came on with anyone. He had a tendency to get loud about it so that everyone around could hear him vigorously defending the Tsar's rights, and the rights of the empire. It was one thing Allen didn't want to be on the receiving end of.


After a moment's consideration he answered, "Kokonur could be useful, but you're right I don't want the impression given we're going to trample over them, we'll figure out where the line is first," And build for a little bit of safety margin if it came to it, "If the Russians are interested they can build down to wherever and meet us, or they can refuse to bid at all," At which case legally they'd entertained their first right to bid in their sphere and passed... "Not that I like trying to rely on the 1910 agreement, everyone seems to hate the damn thing," And it was easy to run a foul of its lines with all the other mess of agreements. IT made Manchuria such a headache to try and plan for. "Realistically though that's a body wide exploration." And not something that would be settled on a February afternoon... it would take months of examination and they probably wouldn't get anything in writing until at least September. "Not Kononur specifically, but we could run a line north from the city into Shansi, Taiyuan at the least, or even further north and still run foul of the Russian treaty limits." And if in the future they did get any kind of leverage to further north then hard west along a straight line," Or as straight as they could cut with fill and dynamite. "It requires a map and a lot of engineers though. Until Cao Kun actually comes round to blunt ask the matter or something comes across in writing lets keep Kokonur tabled. Its a little far west right now with us just having finished the Xian line."
--
Commentary: Thankfully Siems-Carey will all occur off screen during the time skip, and of course the french side of it would be too far south, and Allen has already set he's not touching a peking to canton direct line with a ten foot pole, so much of the French and English complaints to American line building post raised in 1915 16 plus in those 'spheres of influence' aren't applicable... despite you know there being a war in Europe on. Ah that clusterfuck was interesting to read about... I really wish I could find the Russian Empire's position on that, rather than just what Britain and the US said they said. [Cause like the British foreign ministry notes, and US state department records don't quite line up regarding the events of 1916. There are some discrepancies, which there are a lot of going on regarding events in china during this period.]

In any event I'm lookingforward to monday I've got a pathfinder thing going up in the misc thread which I'm interested to post.

 

[Imperator Pax]

1914 Part 3​

He tossed the endicott letter into the try of what remained of his actual engineering load. He glanced at the flickering electric light overhead, and Bill shrugged from the desk in the committee room.

Allen's drafting shop, the floor he had just left, looked more like his grandfather's office than it did Griswold's tool room... but then he supposed that was because they did different things for the corporation. Allen recognized that especially since 1911 had moved him largely from field engineering towards the managerial side... which would likely have been the role he found himself had he stayed in the army... it had been moving that direction.

In 1890 the US Census had used punched card computing for the first time... if the Qing hadn't collapsed the plan had been to try and organize a plan to implement modern statistical programs... so Yuan Shikai could actually implement more effective tax collection of course. The 1909 census had been an utter mess, but quite typical. They'd never even gotten past the planning phase for the province never mind promulgating a draft for a national census.

It had been one of the projects that had been shelved. They had largely forgotten about it in favor of finishing the outstanding products... more practical products really, after all the census had been geared towards tax purposes for Yuan Shikai to help fund further modernization of his Beiyang Army. Provincial contributions that would then be matched by the Qing Army Board and Finance ministry ensuring that Yuan's protégés would have more modern weapons... and now that Yuan was president it was less of a concern.

A provincial census anyway. At some point Yuan was going to have to run a national census... sooner rather than later if Reinsch was to be consulted on the matter heedless of the conditions south, and hence the two pronged pressure to revisit the proposal.

He had other things to do, and truthfully while it probably wasn't a terrible idea it was contracting work for a government that bluntly didn't have the money for it. With the US currently not wanting to participate in the banking consortium it was unlikely that the Brits would want to fit the money for it without an incentive. Reinsch though seemed to think that doing it would help build up the nation. He had so many other things to do, "Bill fancy this?"

The texan looked at it and then him, "Hell naw, I'll be busy enough with oil." Which would probably take two to three years before they started anywhere in terms of production, but this way at least it would be domestic. Standard Oil of New York just didn't have the same interests as the original great giant did, or the capital to throw around... and Bill had a point in opposing bringing anyone else in either. It wasn't as if they really needed the capital now anyway. "You really gonna let Sam go to Europe this summer?"

"He's been needling to go look at automobiles for an age," Allen replied, "I've got to wonder how much it would cost us to pay Ford to set us up a factory to make Model Ts." Or really just set up a factory and make them for a few years to create the institutional knowledge of how an automobile factory would work and the tooling involved, "He wants to go touring." France, Italy, Austria-hungary, and so forth.

"Last time you let him go, he came back with those howitzers."

He had been admittedly supposed to come back with Krupp liscences because they had already known they'd be able to get them. The larger field guns had been the part planned out. It wasn't as if he could ask Edenborn to mind Griswold's spending either. The earnings report for the railway was still fresh in his mind, and truthfully they had the money to make investments... "We do need to modernize." Hangyang was a government arsenal, but in economic terms Yuan Shikai opposed a French arsenal system. Maybe it was his Germanophile inclinations but he had wanted a Ludwig Lovre type institution what was now DWM, he wanted that or at least a Walther as well, it was all well and good to have a Springfield equivalent, but Winchester and Colt were the things he saw as necessary for a strong domestic industry. "Yuan will support Hangyang's upgrades, but they can already make eighty eights they don't need Hartford made tooling." And maybe as part of the upgrades he'd want Hanyang to start making 98 pattern Mauser rifles... or 1907s or whatever he could produce... which would be nice to say the least... but that would require capital that given the last two failed rebellions and the ongoing mess with Bai just wasn't available.

Bill picked up the paper again, skimmed it, "Look at the dates on these," He remarked, "But you'll get another round of these, this was all sent out before Zhao keeled over on the crapper." The governor of Zhili province had either been poisoned or gotten some kind of stomach bug as Bingjun had been found dead in his lavatory. The newspapers said poison but an autopsy had yet to be conducted from the find Friday morning.

"Not likely Zhu is a royalist, and of public manchu leanings in particular, I don't think Reinsch's new fangled ideas will get much traction with him." He just wasn't the sort of deputy to sign on to changing the civil system unless his superior thought it was a good idea... and Yuan had better things to do now. Zhu was unlikely want to pursue any kind of systemic reforms without orders, and wasn't likely especially to go along with Reinsch's ideas of what China needed regardless of the ministers good intentions. "I'll be honest Reinsch had a meeting with Arthur, and with him coming up from Shanghai, that smells like some kind of game is a foot." And of course Percy, well all of Vickers were currently all hands on deck due to the scandal in Japan. He wasn't even sure if Percy was still on the mainland, or if he'd taken a boat down to Hong Kong, or Japan to try and help out. "As for any further requests, Zhu's appointment will probably only become official after I've left for Xian, how unfortunate."

Not that Reinsch's modernization proposals were the only reason. Heading west out beyond Zhengzhou, their previous largest rail station, would keep the elder Forrest from too many requests. With Percy tied up, John Jordan wasn't likely to have too many requests either, but there was another reason still to the matter to push it. "So its confirmed."

"Estimates put Bai Lang at a division strength. Two brigades," Four Regiments, "Operating on what seem to be something akin to the Japanese model," Or at least as it would have been for the Russo Japanese war, "And right now at least Qirui hasn't been able to catch them in battle."

"Nanking?"

"Last stated he has manchu troops troops garrisoning the city," Which may or may not have been a good idea, "I suspect that they were supposed to be reserves but using them as garrison may discourage a revolt from forming in their back end." But it also kept those troops from being able to close Bai Lang into a cauldron, and destroy him. "Qirui shows no signs of being able to catch him, and we know Bai Lang has reserves in Honan still. In Bai's position, I'd have already withdrawn back, if the goal was to take Nanking too much risk of, I suspect Feng will burn the city rather than let be taken."

"Ya think?" Bill raised an eyebrow.

A shrug, "All I know is I'm getting on a train to Xian and I'm going to start overseeing the installation of those guns." And taking the tractors to do it, "I'll make sure the newspapers take plenty of pictures and circulate of when break ground on the business side of things. If the wolf takes the bait, then he does. If not, there are other investments to make." but he was banking on the fact that Bai Lang hadn't been able to take Nanking, and that he'd have to withdraw or face increasing numbers of northern divisions in the field. That was why Cole had already been sent west ahead of him.
--
He'd spent much of the afternoon twisting and turning the numbers with JP like it was back at the academy or the Phillipines. It wasn't just the rails though, or grading for, or stretching a span over a river. It wans't the matter of steel to make it, it was the expansion phase. Pyrometers in the steel mill and in finishing improved performance that had gone without saying, and John Paul now had it into his head that since Griswold was going to Europe in the summer for automobiles that maybe it was time to start moving in that direction. So they had spent entirely too long on that tangent.

Jun was the sort of woman who attracted words like peerless beauty, and goddess and so forth. The comparison to jade didn't mean green really so much as unblemished skin. "Are you alright, you look a bit piqued." He observed sitting down.

She moved slightly in a more unusually guarded gesture, and her expression bore something a moment of heat. "I look pale," Jun corrected sitting up, "I'm told my mother had the same problem when bearing me." The comment, never mind that Jun had a younger brother and she hadn't specified him, was added with a hand resting on her stomach. The maid was pointedly stoic at this, even as he sat down, and he didn't ask for a drink... though he supposed that would have been what was generally expected."We can no longer really avoid it though, there is a war coming to usher in an end to old empires."

It wasn't the first time he'd heard the old woman's warning. It had been one he had dismissed as just nonsense. He had half expected the problem with conceiving had been his, but the doctors all said it was just bad luck. The miscarriage in 09 had really just been enough to put a halt to purposefully trying for children. "The qing have already fallen, dear." He pointed out.

"Empires was plural, husband." She corrected snappishly. "You've heard the poem in its full length,"

Autumn so on and so forth, and he touched the jade knicknack on his desk before pulling back, "Alright sure, war is coming," It had already been coming, but sure, "I'm going to Xian with any luck Bai Lang will over commit and that will be that. If he doesn't, we will go from there." It was all he could really say, there was no point to arguing about the prospect of war.

--
Commentary: One of the things that ended up on the cutting room floor for this story is the whole Song Jiaoren whodunnit, his murder and then the subsequent accusations and so forth. Similarly while Siemens-Vickers 1914 Scandal gets passing mention it also ended up on the cutting room floor. The next chapter though is Xian, which takes place in spring of 1914 with Bai Lang having begun his western march. The 'western campaign' mini arc of chapters, which will besides Xian, cover Shanxi, and the Ma Generals.

There is one scene that has been left out of this chapter, we'll call it the news scene, that may be added in Monday. Its not currently ready but will be appended to this segment, but due to my schedule this weekend I have been able to get it written to where I want it, but it is relatively important domestically. Technically this segment is the very end of February 1914 early march the same.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The Ancient City
Xian Part 1​

He put the letter to the side, and looked at his office. The pang in his stomach was unusual. A portent his father assured him was well normal given the news.

Divination was hardly the sort of thing he cared for, damn the vagaries of fate, but was war actually coming/ it seemed silly to worry about Europe had avoided plenty of conflicts, talked others aside, and backed away without shaking the world. The Xinhai conflict had been a joke in terms of real fighting... this just passed second revolution just as laughable. Nothing that had come anything close to the war between the states, never mind the scale of something like the Taiping rebellion.

... yet he was here, wondering what lay ahead. The Xian office, and they wrote it 'XIAN', though Percy's letter has post marked it 'Sian-fu' for the city, which had just not been something he had realized, was wired for telephone, telegram, and electric lighting. The maps inside resembled the ones back east showing the sprawling expanse of railways, but those wall mounted map boards were overshadowed by rolling boards filled with maps of the surrounding countryside.

They had run plenty of surveys since 1910, and no one had so much as thrown them a sideways glance at running yet more of them even with the main trunk finished into the city. Excavations were marked off which ones that were done, which ones were planned still in a different color, and delays in yet another on the rolling maps. From the outside looking in anyone watching the city would assume there was a much larger investment going on... were that that actually the case. The dykes on the river, the canals nearby all needed work. The greater canal system of China had needed an overhaul and more than just semi frequent patching for thirty plus years now. Railways made them somewhat less necessary for transport of goods, but there was still the role in flood control, and spring was coming. He was cognizant of that as what were entrenchments designed to break any demonstration of 'elan vital' by Bai Lang's troops in mounting a head long charge.

Some of the barbed wire lines were already being stretched, and emplaced. Indeed to maintain something of a fiction they had corralled in cattle, and made temporary holdings to feed and see to the animals, even though they were on the wrong side of the rail line. Qirui had failed to catch Bai Lang, and the report ranging from Honan and Shensi had come that Bai Lang had planned a great march west to regroup... that not all of his captains believed was the most prudent. Some had declared they'd hold in Sow gorge ... which was where Qirui was supposed to be marching on with overwhelming numbers.

As a graduate of west point he would have found that painful to contemplate, but most powers still longed to mount the glorious charges of cavalry across the field. It took reminding himself that it had only been in the last century that the modern great powers of Europe had industrialized after the English had worked out most if not all the kinks of industrial measure. The Europeans had only really had their colonial adventurers to see the effect of modern war until those fool things in the balkans as the Ottoman's slipped further into their dotage. It seemed likely that Bai Lang would mass for a front assault hoping that his numbers and courage would take the centuries old city walls.

Walls that he had carefully painstakingly modelled, and whose previous historical defenses he had studied. The provincial guard, and city militia, under Fenghui had a handful of blackpowder cannons that would have been old during the boxer rebellion, but they did seem to work, but Fenghui's infantry ranged from single shot cartridge rifles up to a very small precious number of eighty eights. They had no modern artillery, and certainly no machine guns. Shaanxi was not allocated a Beiyang division of its own. It wasn't once of those provinces in the Yangtze river basin, and not part really properly he supposed a part of North China. Yuan had only gotten around to establishing a Shensi based Beiyang Division relatively late in the Qing after all, and that had been something of a mess because it had its share of radicals in it once the Xinhai revolt had kicked off that had gutted the division with desertions before it had really been complete. The money had never been there of course for more after, and for the Qing settling on the eighty eight had been a decision that had made sense, after all it wasn't as if the Belgians didn't use a rifle much similar.

The matter of rifles drew his attention from the tools of his office as a staff officer to the weapons of the field. The rifles and guns that rested in the room with their bandoliers, and magazines of ammunition. His personal weapons stood there, and then his attention flitted back to the matters of staff, to the division of labor for the battle to come. Of what weapons were allocated to which units, to volumes of shell for batteries especially.

--
There was a certain sort of grumbling going on as march had dragged on. It was not discontent per se, but something of an oddity in the mood of officers and enlisted men. The conversation ongoing was just an example of the wider matter. "Going to be awful queer having to explain dying in gray to grandpappy."


The comment caused Shan to glance at him inquiringly. They were all in gray uniforms modelled after Prussian uniforms. The only true difference with the Beiyang army uniforms were the deletion of those horrible epaulets... and he supposed the crushed hats of the men.

Dawes who's look was far away, and not focused on his heavy guns nearer afield shook his head to JP's comment. The older man looked aside, "Today might be as good as any to die, but its not our turn." He turned fully. "I should say let 'em come. Their mettle will be found wanting beneath the thunder of our guns." There was solemn tone, an edge near supernatural to his words that steeled the others as much as it might have them uneven in its tone.

John Paul shook his head as Dawes started barking to his red legs, or the spotters all along the walls with their charts. "Why is he like that today? It gives me the chill." Allen almost reminded the other man that it had been his choice to come along to this, that he could have stayed at the arsenal where he might have done more good. They stood though together in an ancient city preparing to defend her, from storied walls, against a great horde of bandits.

Cole snorted, "At least the old man spared us his death vision this time, god," He shook his head, "The Cheyenne hate it when old folks," Dawes really wasn't that old, "start chasing death like he's doing."

"He'll be with the artillery," Allen replied, Dawes wasn't going to go charging off on some fool cavalry maneuver looking to achieve some grand break through.

"Good, there is no san juan hill to charge up." Cole snorted in agitation, glanced at the horizon, and then to the mix of the men. He didn't comment that they were the hill as his eyes craned back to the river southwards of the city. Visibility was good. It was a pretty day soon to be spoiled by what loomed on the horizon. The Jia, the pennants of the various battalions fluttered distant. "He better be right, sure are a lot of the bastards."

Not that they hadn't expected that. He thought back to the comments months earlier. About ... about Rorke's Drift, and about lessons learned watching Russian and Japan bloody each other almost ten years ago now. "Sure are," He agreed. This would be a battle of true armies. Thousands of men on either side... many thousands on one side.

They had the defensive ground, as prepared as they were going to get it. Every man was a volunteer, and even the least drilled volunteer had months of learning behind him, and had been issued as much ammo, and with pistols as a contingency. A contingency that was more about reassurance than anything, the idea of having to go to that wasn't a pleasant one.

This was going to be to be interesting.

He did not lament that he had been hoping that they would had more time. That maybe more of Bai Lang's horde might have hoped to fight Qirui in home terrain. They were here, and this was now... they were committed. "how's it?" Cole questioned in brief.

"We're going to hold," He reminded him. The guns at Arthur, seven hundred miles odd as the crow flew, had had ranges in miles in indirect fire. Dawes' could have opened the barrage now Bai Lang's banners were well within eight kilometers of the city. "I can't be for sure that that's not a smokescreen to make it look like he had more men on the front than he does."

Cole gestured to one of his corporals and sent him down the stairs of the ancient city walls. The rifle clubs had been a European introduction to the ancient kingdom, hunting clubs had sort of existed in the Manchu kingdom of the Qing, but it wasn't the same. The needs of the Railway Protection Force had opened up the club that served as the drill ground for Cole's 'gentlemen volunteers' to officer recruits... ensigns cornets lieutenants whatever they were to be called and now served as a finishing school for sharpshooters and scouts in a way that just hadn't existed in the Federal Army.

As the man moved to return to his own unit's line the wind began to pick up from about four miles an hour to close to eight, but that was unlikely to mean anything. Bai looked like he had halted his troops, and was waiting to see what they would do... there were occasional flashes of glass from his side, and Bai's horsemen could probably see the flashes of glass from theirs as they searched.

If Bai's men were looking for artillery they wouldn't see them. Those had been tucked well back of their own lines, and Dawes connection to each of the batteries was being coordinated via field telephones that were wrapped with color chords to signal which of them it was talking to by sight. Each of the batteries had colored dyes to mark where they landed and they were very literally going to be painting the horizon in the next hour or so if the wolf decided to huff and puff.
--
Commentary: This is a three part which is almost entirely going to be the actual battle for the city, its currently sitting about fifty four hundred words and should finish up on the sixth with the last bit of bloodshed. This is going to be a very 'modern' battle in many respects, colored dyes in guns were done, early and then dropped due to as industrial warfare spun up you just couldn't have that option in a war suddenly requiring millions of tons of shells delivered to tens of thousands of guns, and it did return in particular in Naval combat in for example world war 2, but also field telephones, barbed wire other stuff.

In terms of this battle and particularly the story that opens two years later in 1916. This is important as Fenghui will be actually be relieved as military governor of the province in June of 1914. His successor would declare 'independence' from China or at least Yuan Shikai's Beiyang government in spring of 1916, but doesn't really seem to have done much. Shaanxi largely kept business as usual in terms of various internal business. (From 1914 to 1916 in particular there was a lot of US investment, oil, rail, canals, more investments in agriculture both cash crops and food stuffs) and Lu gets replaced by Qirui's guy Chen (this is a member of the Anfu club, or anhui clique) historically, and he'll make minor appearances in the following story.

Xian though was largely neglected in terms of capital politics. Chen allegedly spent more time in Beijing than he did in the capital he was military governor of. (Though admittedly being part of the Anhui clique he may have had other titles between 1916-17 that I've missed.)

 

[Imperator Pax]

The Ancient City
Xian Part 2​

Red, Green, and White smoke plastered the battle ground. "Five Nines, Rounds complete." Someone to his right declared, before relaying adjustment for the guns to lay into the mass. Bai Lang's first wave had gallant as it had looked at the youths with their silks, and rifles atop their ponies had been an attempt at intimidation. A sallying forth onto the field to show thousands of cavalrymen probably with the intention of demanding the city throw open its gates. They had come in waving banners which a man with binoculars had read out declared them the 'Army to Punish Yuan Shikai.'

They had been allowed a thousand meters near to the city wall, before the old black powder guns had been allowed to open up from the city walls. Those guns which would have been by Chinese standards considered modern in the Taiping rebellion had been a distraction even as they poured black powder driven shot and even explosive shell bounding into pre measured killing fields to which the cavalcade had helpfully charged into. They were just antique guns though and they had made big billowing clouds of white smoke from their positions that the city folk and Bai Lang's troops had pointed to.

The dashing brigands had turned and disengaged fleeing beyond the range of the old black powder guns and settled back to stamping and stomping at where they had started.

There had been no counter battery though. NO duel of artillery had commenced, and while it wasn't unthinkable Bai Lang did have machine guns they hadn't seen any. The real force, on their side had been divided into three concentrations forces. A, B, and of course Cole's Van deployed in the defenses outside the city wall. It would have been nice to have a dedicated force of reserves, but they didn't have the numbers for that. At the top of the hour Bai Lang had mounted another cavalry charge hoping to force the gates. A force of dismounted infantry with smokeless rifles had been advancing behind them had followed up trying to suppress the gun crews on the wall by at the very least making things at the ramparts a little more exciting.

Cole's Van Force, and the defensive frontage had allowed the cavalry to get close before they had opened up from prepared firing positions... trenches and reinforced timber covered firing lines with razor wire stretched and staked in front of them. The chatter of Vickers guns and had raked the field, and Bai Lang had replied with an expected gallant sortie of his host.

The depth of the battlefield was John Allen estimated about five kilometers. Bai Lang seemed to have kept all of his best troops in reserve choosing to mount the bloody frontal attacks with fresh recruits and young unproven bandits eager at least to win glory. White smoke from the lighter modern guns had focused on the core of the offensive thrust. Red and Green from heavier fifteen centimeter 'field howitzers' were only throwing to about half of their actual reach but were landing 'splendidly' as Dawes had described it across the back lines of the enemy force.

This was more complicated than the Missionary Battle... what was worse than that was all of those who were coming to the ramparts, eastern and western to watch from the walls at the great butchery carrying on. This was as a modern a battle as central China had seen in living memory he reckoned, and Bai Lang's recent carrying on as he crossed the border had won him no new friends. The word had come since they had left Honan of a systematic canvasing of taken cities where they would thoroughly strip a place of valuables and rape and murder to their content. No doubt Bai Lang was hoping to blood his newest most untested recruits for a stand against government forces if it came to it, but it could well have been the Bai Lang's targets had since crossing the border been predominantly been Hui merchants as well.

So thus here they were standing at the command post with unoccupied parts of the ancient walls having turned into gallery seating. "I wish they'd go home." They had planned for the possibility of this carrying on overnight. Flare shells had been allocated to the guns, and he could only guess how that and the arc lights they would use to light the walls and illuminate the ground in front of Cole's forward line would be taken by the locals. For now though it was as if they were at the greatest show on earth.... but he supposed the turnout of picnickers for Bull Run and other early battles of the war between the states had happened too.

JP nodded, "Me too, John Allen." He lowered his field glasses. "Those aren't peasant soldiers out there. He's tried, you can tell to instill some level of drill into that nest of rats. I don't see anything that could be this 'Shansi Revolutionary Corp' though, and there has been no sign of Bai Lang's personal banner."

Any further chatter was silenced as John Paul clicked his mouth shut as fresh rounds began to cycle from behind them as the howitzer crews made their adjustments. Fresh splashes of Gree n smoke appeared left exploding into high explosive scything shrapnel through the enemy ranks almost two miles across the southern plain from the wall. They were far enough that he couldn't see the individual men fall, only the gap as shells opened the already riven earth. "What's he doing?"

"Signaling for another attack I think." The afternoon was wearing on, and as the day had worn the wind had picked up through out the day, "I'm counting, one," JP Counted, "Six Jia east to west moving forward of the line. That's, at least a brigade of men." He muttered. It wasn't as if they hadn't know that Bai Lang had more men than he knew what to do with.

"Anyone we know?"

"Just a moment then," A pause as he tracked the massive sixty power german spotting optic, "far right of the force, think its one of his cousins." JP declared, A nod was given to one of the telephone operators, and he began to carry on through the line that ran down to Cole's forward command post to ask what they could make out. "He's the one who hit Lokoku, right?"

"If not him than one of his lieutenants," Allen agreed, the wind made it difficult to catch the long streaming banner. The newspapers had reported that the raid on the factories in the town had entailed some seven hundred rifles... and he wondered if when they surveyed the bodies if that Jia would be carrying American or British arms made at Lokoku's arms factories. Or Arisakas a nasty voice in his mind added, Bai Lang's most elite troops through this whole affair had often been those of family and family friends his cousin was probably leading at least some of the wolf's best troops to try and force the great gate.

This was at least a known threat though. The Shansi, the neighboring province, Revolutionary Corp had been a recent bit of news. Supposedly defectors from the Beiyang Army, and lead by officers who had studied in Japan that were purported to have linked up with Bai, and made common cause... but Allen had yet to lay eyes on them. He wasn't quite sure he'd recognize them. Bai Lang had other Beiyang deserters in his army, and if they were still wearing the uniforms would they even be recognizable from each other. The reports from down south was that opposing forces some still wearing the uniforms issued under the Qing at the turn of the century had simply taken to wearing armbands, apparently that had been the case at the Woosung forts, and Shanghai.

Useful only in spitting distances, he mused thinking of Bureaugards sentries shooting down Stonewall Jackson in the night as he rode.

"Weather looks like its starting to turn," JP observed how much of the darkening skies were the day wearing on, the wind, or even the cannon shells bursting, was debatable. Whatever factor or combination of factor, the first gollup of rain hit his hand. The fields were already churned by the thrash of hooves as far as the eye could see and men following after hadn't made it any better, now the spring rains were to come as well, turn it all into an even bigger mire. This meant nothing to the bulk of the forces they had arrayed to defend a city of a million people. Their own... from an organizational perspective brigade had the city walls, and the old Manchu district to base from and an abundance of buildings and structures. The forces forming the defensive cording forward of the walls of the city had some exposure to the elements simply because you could only dig so deeply in an amount of time, and to tell the truth they had wanted to maximize as much an element of surprise as possible. "I sure hope Cole graded those fighting lines right if this turns nasty." Xian's soil had a layer of hard clay down under a lot like back home, that ... well for railway construction was one thing, but field fortifications, and breastworks was an added chore. Really it was just a matter of time consuming labor that didn't work when you had a division bearing down.

The fortifications were still already deeper than what would have been feasible in most of the Phillipines because this wasn't swampland, the challenge was dry hard packed soil here. If the thunderstorm here would have come maybe a few weeks earlier than it might have done some good for the defenders. In spite of the stirring thunderstorm though it seemed Bai Lang hoped to make one more charge even as the rain began to pick up. "Here he comes."

The cavalry battalions swept forward as a mass preparing to mount a charge that no doubt they expected would let them break through. That they would be able to get under the elevation of the guns and through the defenders outside the walls and could then find a gate they could force.

"He's got infantry moving up as well." John Paul declared abruptly calling. "Far to the flank, make eight hundred meters left side. Thats got to be two thousand men."

"Shan signal Force A, hold fire until they are within five hundred meters of the companies' positions."

 

[Imperator Pax]

The Ancient City
Xian Part 3​

Charging entrenched guns was a heavy ask. The Philipinos had had limited artillery, but the Spanish professional troops had had modern guns for the time. That fighting had already been done of course by the time Allen had arrived, but there had still been the trouble of clearing other prepared defenses with rebels... even most often what that really entailed was supporting or advising one group of Philipinos against another. The moro conflict had largely been fought by moros on both sides and only the surprise attacks and willingness of moro tribesmen, frankly on both sides, to charge a prepared defensive fortification had been rife for chattering in the papers.

Elan Vital... or Kokutai as it had been described most recently by Japan was the strategic expression of doctrine that moral rectitude would allow a force to in the attack overcome the defenders.

Bai Lang had some twenty thousand men outside, and he felt that whatever losses could be inflicted wouldn't be enough to break his attack.

They would see.

Force A was the first and second companies of first battalion... and technically Allen supposed the headquarters element. That was two companies of four platoons. Any similarity the US 15th​ infantry ended with the machine guns pushed down to company level. The comparison of his own force though made him see what it was Bai Lang was in the process of attempting, "This is like the Boxer Rebellion."

"What," John Paul's head had snapped to the side to look at it, "IN case you ain't noticed we both got modern rifles and a distinct lack of magic talismans."

That wasn't what he had meant, "No, this is a repeat of Fukushima's Fifth Division, and its attempt to force Peking's gates," Just with more cavalry in the forward, which explained why Bai Lang was willing to soak losses like this. Fukushima had insisted on carrying the day, damn the consequences and been hailed for it.... well that and Fukushima had probably had the best drilled troops among the relief forces... at least according to some. How much of that was the fact the Japanese hadn't acted like the Germans and Russians had probably impacted 15th​ Infantry's records, and the opinions of her officers, or for that matter the Brits even as looting had taken place. "He's-" The explosion of dynamite from somewhere to his left, to far forward of the gates to have done anything, someone had probably lit too soon and and not thrown far enough to make it into a firing line... or they'd fumbled the throw.

Machine guns chattered away at the attacking line from Cole's positions as the Vickers opened back up in sweeping fire. As with the artillery the machine guns were operating at only a fraction of their range, rather than reaching out to two thousand yards, or even sixteen hundred given the worsening light, they were sweeping cordons of fire at a fraction of that.

JP glanced back into the optic, "We gonna have to crank those arc lights on sooner rather than later, what do we do about this. If he's doing what you say he's going to do we can expect night attacks." Not that they hadn't expected night attacks. "Might be why we haven't seen the Shansi boys show yet."

Yet was the operative word. Bai Lang presumably knew if he didn't take the city, and couldn't cut the rail line that Cao Kun, or Duan Qirui would, if not both of their divisions, get sent by Yuan Shikai and the massed Beiyang troops would catch them in a pincer. Even if Bai Lang could cut the rail and take the city that didn't necessarily assure he'd be able to hold it, but Bai Lang was probably banking that Yuan Shikai couldn't spare enough cities to contest hold of such an interior city without risking another revolt down south breaking out. How exactly committed Bai's rank and file were to Revolution, well that Allen was somewhat skeptical of, but it didn't matter if Bai Lang won, or so long as Bai could keep paying his troops.

Force B consisted of Volunteer soldiers rather, which was itself a stupid distinction. Everyone was a volunteer, but the two battalions of 'professional' troops were distinct from the larger number of second line drill... but even second line wasn't really accurate. Guardsmen wasn't accurate either, even though he supposed in comparison to the US Army that might have fit the pieces he had.

Force B wasn't truly a reserve force though it was comprised of those drilled units organized to provide the men for walls as a whole. A thousand man battalion was the core of Force B, divided into its companies along the cardinal facings not covered by Force A. It was doubtful of course that the northern approach could be actually assaulted, especially as it was from that direction that their rail line entered the city, and it was as a result the most heavily laden observation and communication network constructed in the most permanent fashion compared to the field lines. Additionally to bear consideration any attack from the north would force Bai to contend with the geography there of risking whatever force he could get up that way its own encirclement against the boundaries of natural surroundings. In a similar manner Bai attempting to swing wide west and come round would have potentially allowed him to encircle, assuming he had enough troops to conduct such a broad maneuver, but would have exposed his troops to protected and accurate rifle fire from elevated positions. Force A and B were both along the city's walls, or within the old city, such as the brigade postings in the former tartar city within that now held the rail depot. Van Force, as calling it Force C would have been silly, was the only one outside those protections and had excavated its fighting lines as a result of it only on the southern facings. They were effectively a defensive projection, basically a salient projecting forward into the terrain of the city. That was Cole's force were a screen to allow Force A to shoot at an angle, and keep enemy troops from getting directly under the city walls.

Bai's infantry force behind his cousin's cavalry had moved forward and looked now to be in the process of setting up what were most probably Maxim guns of some caliber. Whatever round they might have been firing, and it certainly did not have the report of eight millimeter mauser, sounding smaller, though that might have been the deadening of sound from all the rest of the din, including the rainfall. The bigger issue of the snap thunderstorm was it reducing already diminishing daylight, and JP was right they were going to have to crank the lights on sooner rather than later.

"He's got more infantry moving up."

"Another brigade?"

"No, maybe half of one." Which begged the question where was the other half. "They look like they're dispersed Bai has started spreading his columns, think he's cotton'ed on to the notion standing to march is bad with artillery around."

John Allen moved to one side and glassed the enemy position, taking a moment to adjust the optic even if the enemy ranks looked like a mound of little black ants. JP's observation was correct though it was near to impossible to make out individuals as little more than specs someone down there had to be running and directing them to spread out for a ground covering advance. It wouldn't be as fast or as coordinated but it would keep a single shell burst from cutting down ten men a square meter.

--
The fact was they had planned to use arc lights, and put Bai Lang's troops under star shells all night anyway. That had been pre planned, and the illumination had been factored in in how they had provided for the shelter of their own troops bedding down for the night. As far as avoiding the stimulation of the light it had been a simple matter of black out stretches of canvas, but one had to lob those shells, and arc lights or the generators for them weren't exactly quiet either. Allen and Company A had been exposed to the ruckus at the mission down south, but JP looked like he hadn't slept a wink. John Paul was currently surly and snapping at Cole who was taking it in stride though as he cleaned the fourth or maybe fifth Mondragon rifle of the morning.

Bai Lang had stretched his troops along the horizon, dispersing them wide enough and far enough apart that any single artillery motion would be ineffective. No one had accused him of being stupid at least in terms of military acumen, and his staff organization talents were wasted on banditry, but if he did want to make another attack he was going to have to concentrate and get moving. He was probably sitting down to breakfast in front of a map table with his own officers even now wondering how close he needed to get before he could safely mass his troops up again.

Bai Lang seemed though to be intended to take a long breakfast, and Dawes was still in the process of thoroughly cleaning his pieces of artillery in expectation for literally tons of shells needing to be fired against a dispersed foe throughout the day. "Any idea as to casualties?"

"Just the twelve dead," At yesterday's evening call, "The rest the wounded have been invalided back to the Hospital as a precaution." Some of the twenty or so wounded among Cole's van force would have been walking wounded, but they had been ordered to hospital all the same.

"And Bai Lang?"

"No counting the shots in the night," the other Georgian replied, "Total losses from yesterday, I think the guesswork still agrees he probably lost a thousand or so dead, and probably double maybe triple that wounded. Two thirds of all that from Dawes's guns, and maybe, just maybe that might have buried some more of them that we didn't count."

It was guesswork of course, short of plowing up the fields there would be no way to know. Combat losses of an attacking enemy at range were also always prone to being inaccurate. Dawes artillery batteries could very well have done more damage, but probably hadn't done less.

There was an audible ker chunk as Cole finished another, dropping the bolt on, Mondragon. "Have you warmed to them then Cole?"

"Hell no, tell Griswold to make more of those Remington this time in seven mill and we will have a fine self loader."

"I like them," JP protested, "Recoil is much more manageable than Browning System." Shortly before John Paul had left the army in 1907 he had purchased... for a hundred dollars ... one of the Hanael semi automatic rifles. That rifle was currently at the arsenal that bore their names because of its ammo, and JP was currently sitting next to his own Model 1900, that was to say the very same system of action used in Griswold's mauser caliber project guns.

"Too much machining for this," He gestured, "These conditions, I'm surprised mud hasn't forced us to use them as bolt actions yet. "Too damn expensive too. Outfit the army, rifles that are seventy five dollars a rifle. Congress would try and lock us up in the asylum. That's assuming Griswold could make them in 30 Government and not have the price go up."

"I didn't say in 30." JP complained defensively, "The future of weaponry is in smaller diameter self loading."

"You preaching to the choir," Cole interrupted, "But trying to sell 'em stateside, I mean shit we liberated Cuba mostly with black powder rifles for god's sake. I'm fine leaving you to make the guns but there are times you forget some things."

Any further quibbling was cut off as a klaxon started. One of JP's lieutenants offered him a handset, but the message from the Klaxon's wail had been clear enough, "Movement spotted from the observation posts." JP reported, and that was the end of breakfast. They divided to their respective posts Cole heading out the gates to rejoin his commandos who'd been posted for the morning watch while the rest of Van force took morning chow.

The rain had cleared, even if the ground wasn't dry, but it wasn't especially bright either. He made a mental note to return to the mission and to investigate the condition of the ground there to see how it was after that spat between them and Bai's uncle.

A murderous slog of ruined earth mired a zone about three hundred meters wide beyond which on either side were other pockmarks. It was not yet hot enough or been long enough for the bodies of yesterday's dead left in the no man's land to ripen but flies and carrion birds were already present in swarms and droves. Did that stop the onlookers? The spectators? Not at all, far from it the numbers were probably even more than they had been yesterday.

He suspected that was in part because most of the fighting was to those onlookers nothing more than noise and smoke. The advent of smokeless powder had resulted in a fascination of the theoretical capability that sights were graded out to two thousand or more meters, despite the fact that you'd be luck if one in a thousand men had the eyesight and the skill together for that kind of shot. You certainly wouldn't make that shot on a target in a rank of men regardless of what the French and Prussians had expected thirty years earlier as they had been racing to put smokeless powder into use.

Most of the observers, hell even to JP there was a disconnect with observing the situation. There was a disconnect of not seeing things up close. None of JP's specialists of wire layers, and telephone operators were at any risk of being caught out front, as so far only Cole's Van Force had really been exposed to enemy fire. "Bai Lang knows he can't keep this up. He has to take the gate, or he must abandon the attack..." Or at least such was the strategic thinking... the logical thinking... but there was the nagging feeling that Jun was right... that Bai had taken the bait and would commit himself to his honor, and would press this into a final decisive battle. "Ring Dawes, I want to know if those howitzers of his are ready for the recital."
--
Commentary: This has been abridged, in the original draft Bai Lang manages to drag the 'siege' out to a third day and manages to burst one of the gates with dynamite concealed within an ox cart and insert a force from the Shansi Revolutionary Corp into the Hui quarter of the city, prompting some urban street to street fighting as a demonstrator of events during the wolf hunt as we approach June of 1914.

It is overall a relatively minor change in terms of what it happens, and is actually kind of a flip flop on my part as this is going back to an earlier draft version involving the adoption of the Dragon Banner and the use of the red dragon.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The Hunt, and the Banner
Part 1​

Allen had taken his boots off, which was near to a breach of army discipline even though he was off duty. Off duty, that was a problematic concept. Technically speaking Bai Lang had been driven back, but it wasn't impossible he might attempt to make a second attack, doubtful as that was. Not with all the newspapers squawking about Xian as a conflict... the damned telegraph had meant all sorts of crowing to the coastal cities, and in particular missionaries cabling their embassies.

The committee of economic advisors a fancy and self appointed title to a sub unit of the cadre had drafted their recommendations for Xian reconstruction already. Reconstruction made it sound like there was more damage to the city than there really had been due to the recent fighting. The truth was that Manchu portion of Xian had never been rebuilt, or properly cleared from the arson of the revolution, and it was probably risky to play up as if Bai Lang had done more damage than he had. The report though already outlined a policy of clearance, and grading for the district.

What had been Force B would be remaining in the city. Commissioner Gao had been dismissed by Peking after Zhang had complained to Yuan, but it wasn't as if, at least according to Cao Kun, that Yuan was thrilled with either members of the provisional government... of course Yuan was apparently ticked off at Duan for not managing to pin and break that 'flea bitten mongrel' either. So the battalion would be staying on.

Thinking back now to the war-games of New Years he regretted having taken up the position of Gordon against the Frenchman. In part that was because of the economic report in front of him that was no small part a roundabout insistence that they return to the matter of creating economic growth, that was to say productivity and the manufacture of goods either for export or for domestic consumption. The question of what we will produce, and how they would produce it, the question of distribution was easy, they had the rail.

The Qing's financials had long contributed to a devolution of imperial authority down to the provincial level, mountains high emperor is far away and all of that had been a thing before then, but the Xinhai revolt had only further weakened Peking's ability to make policy in the provinces. That didn't mean Peking didn't want to, and frankly as Sun demonstrated in his brief tenure in charge of the railway portfolio he had been more concerned with actual results rather than the agreements the Qing had made with the provincial elites. Not that his year roughly in the job had been all that effective, Jun had had a point there, but if there was anything to be said of the muckraking that Adams was doing for the legation, what money had been raised had largely gotten tied up in complicated unproductive expenditures that had born out little in the way of new rails being laid down. Frankly, most of the hundreds of thousands of dollars in repair work was probably half graft anyway.

On the other hand Liang, and Cao Kun both had confirmed that part of what had delayed Duan Qirui had been Bai Lang dynamiting turnpikes, and switchbacks but thankfully no bridges. Bai had also firebombed a portion of hunan's rolling stock too just to make things difficult... but the general consensus now was that Bai Lang and his forces were now driven from the province.

That was progress of a sort at least.

He glanced up, "Been standing there long?" Allen asked.

Jun sat down without answering. He hadn't heard her open the door, but he was relatively sure he had left it unlocked and the outer door beyond it open. "more arguing?" She asked drilling long fingers along the header of the report. "More arguing? You have a city now." She observed.

Truthfully he didn't expect her to understand. So much of Jun's view differed in how she saw the world. The arguments about reprioritizing away from 'military adventurism' to focus on commercial market cultivation, "Abandoning the hunt now would only weaken your position, Qirui's constitution fails him, and for all the bluster of lesser officers the wolf is too far beyond their grasp to chase. He's been allowed into the western frontier where is unlikely to find succor and thus have no need to restrain the more base urges of his lackeys."

"And where do you think he'll go?"


"All across the western frontier, wherever he can blunder and loot of course. As far as the Jade Gate perhaps, north to lay siege to Taiyuan, or even further to encamp at Baideng." That would put him near the contested areas of influence of the Tsar and the Japanese. "You have to pursue him."

--
Parts of Bai's army had pivoted hard and through the Gansu corridor at the end of April, and as predicted had found little support among the Hui, Uighurs or Tibetan folks of the western provinces. The Old Ma family generals in the west had moved to get people out of the way, choosing to trade space and deny Bai Lang's men resources rather than directly confront a bandit horde armed with modern weapons. That wasn't stopping Bai Lang from plundering anything he could get his hands on, but he was getting less and less. The proviso, description of being, bandits with politics was falling away to just being bandits.

Not that the newspapers really cared. He was too far west for any real notice to be paid to matters. Maybe if he went even further and marched into the Tibetan steppes to both British interests there would be more of a comment but even then that was doubtful.

"You think Jun's right?" Bill questioned, "He circles back tries to take the city a second time?"

Allen leaned back, "Its possible. He divided and scattered his forces through the provinces because he presumably couldn't keep them fed any other way." Xian was the largest city in the region, the biggest single concentration of wealth... "But she's right he could pick somewhere smaller, Taiyuan has an arsenal, he could raid it for arms and ammunition."

"Can't say I like that idea." The texan replied, but this also wasn't Texas, running off into the frontier was a good way to end up dead... and they both recognized that. "Don't get me wrong, Al, Bai needs to be stopped, but we're going to be tying down two thousand men here. There is now way all of first battalion can be spared, and certainly not to go running after him,"

All of first battalion... "Bai Lang has too many troops I know that." And realistically Cole was going to be needed elsewhere. "But if we don't do something,"

"I won't be able to do any exploratory drilling. That hadn't escaped me, but even if he doesn't think we baited him into attacking Xian, or that we had at least laid a trap he's not going to try that a second time." Bill finally reached for his whisky, "If Shanxi then Yan, if Gansu then the Old Ma... and if he runs down to Tibet... well fuck him, then it ain't our problem." If only it were that simple, "At least with Taiyuan we were going to take a railine up off the Zhengzhou trunk and run it up that ways. That wouldn't take so long either, and would be much closer to their own factories, and smelters.

"Be realistic Bill, what are the chances I could stay out this way?"

"Nada," The Texan drawled draining the glass. "You're needed back in the big city, bigger city." He amended, "And I'll remind your old man thinks we need someone in Tokyo as an observer to what sure to be the raking of Siemens and Vickers over the coals." A military court had been convened to try Prime Minister Yamamoto and another admiral along with members of the navy procurement board.... and at the very least they were all guilty of conduct unbecoming so really it was just a show trial and everyone knew it. Even the Brits had admitted Vickers should have known better and that what they were doing was illegal under British law, which was to say that Vickers should have known better than to get caught. "Yamamoto has resigned of course so I expect he'll get a smack on the wrist."

"A couple of captains will probably get dinged, and most of the blame will be shuffled off on Siemens and Vickers, until they've given Taro's party enough time to vent." Realistically even if Taro hadn't died, they were going to have to keep working with Siemens, and Vickers... Vickers especially... the Navy just was going to insist that was how it was going to be. The Royal Navy was as big as its next two rivals, and her shipbuilding industry was as a result second to none. "As for boarding for Tokyo, I don't think that Reinsch will go for that." and realistically Wilson's ambassador to Japan was unlikely to go for it either. "Unless Washington has said?"

"Not that I've heard, but you know how Bryan gets, or House, if they decide something is good for the country I reckon Reinsch will end up with a call directly." Or House showing up in person if he could manage that. "But no I ain't heard anything but its back to Peking."

Which was ultimately when you got down to it just a few hours by train, really. A day of travel and then back to the capital... and the same was true for coming back.

--
Commentary: The Wilson State Department again as I've mentioned involved a lot of executive actions from advisors to Wilson often going over the heads or without concern for the Ambassador's position. Not that the British didn't either Gray was a very authoritative figure in British foreign policy, and for that matter John Jordan had his share of office drama so to speak. Wilson had a very idealistic foreign policy, which was pursued by ambassadors like Reinsch. This is often over simplified to 'banking and militarism are bad' or Wilson's view on Christianity and missionaries and etc or just drowned out entirely by WW1 coming to the fore. Wilson was however willing to listen to his advisors, who often had a more belligerent, or in the case of both state and the war department imperial or great power ambitions. This is also pre ww1 where sending executive agents (as was the term House liked) to observe foreign politics was done and that was very often not professional members of the civil service but people of means and who you knew.

But anyway, this will be heading into May of 1914, with a brief continuance to Peking before the depth of Bai Lang's final rampages become apparent, then we get dragon banner and the rest of the conclusion of the rebellion.

Other than that the Baron Zemo!SI saves Imperial Germany will remain in the Misc thread for the first couple of updates until I'm confident it should be brought over here.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The Hunt and the Banner Part 2​

Peking had largely calmed, and settled. The university still had some broadsheets circulating, and some of the newspapers talked big, but the city hardly seemed under any sort of tension. The city at large at least. The international portion though was unhappy that Bai Lang remained at large. "Was he actually there?"

"We think so, but he never would commit fully." If Bai hadn't been present it would have made more sense for whoever was in charge to commit fully.

"Suspiciously timid of him." The elder Forrest muttered, "What spooked him?"

"Probably the howitzers. We might have used them too early." That was only really a consideration in hindsight. "It tipped that we we're more dug in."

"Japs or the Russians would have kept coming. French, or Germans too."

... and probably England, "I am not sure how confident he was in his troops being able to stand the withering of machine gun fire either. Realistically I think he knew he didn't have time to dally. At the very least he had to know that Qirui would fix the rails in Honan, or go around them someway and would keep going."

"Yes, indeed... Yuan isn't happy, and sounds like all this running just stirs the rabble up."

"The city seems fine. Did something happen?"

"Here, goodness no. Down in Shanghai though, there have been a series of escalations in public demonstrations, and broadsheets. Not that the Japanese really needed the excuse for wanting more of their marines to police the city." Apparently policing now included breaking into and busting up newspaper printing machines... but he supposed that wasn't really a surprise. No one had gotten shot at least. It had technically occurred in the international settlement so it was really John Jordan's place to complain, and he was conspicuously quiet on the matter. "No. My concern is, the concern of Washington." The older man stated straightening and fixing him with a look, "Is that this is a precursor to Bai Lang taking more desperate actions. There have been a number of abductions that the state department has been apprised of in Shansi, and Shensi, and there is no telling how many have happened elsewhere. Whenever we do learn of them, it will just mean more pressure from Wilson to do something about it, while at the same time expecting us to walk the tight rope. The best way to play the game is to have a degree of separation, I'm sure the Brits will be coming to call for much the same reason."

Of course how unsurprising. "So I should turn down any invitations to Tokyo?"

"Barring Yamagata's direct invitation or the like, yes, this is certainly more important." Allen bit down an acerbic response. He supposed he should be grateful for any sort of caveat or exception to the standby for a ridiculous errand. The moment was already past, "The only way to bring cavalry to bear would be cavalry to catch them, and then to break them in place before they can run for it." It was purely an academic commentary, if Cavalry didn't come to you, chasing them with infantry was often impractical and the Federal Army's doctrine recognized... though as mostly an excuse that the Cavalry continue to receive funding in Allen's opinion. The older Forrest finished his lecture, "if he can't be bottled up and brought to battle he'll just keep slipping away."

Deciding now was as good of a time as any, "What about Bai Lang's southern force the one the was cut off south of Nanking? What happened to them?"

"They fled south, skirted Fukien and entered Yunnan where they took service."

"And they've just been quiet since then?"

"By all accounts."

"Something you want to share?"

He shook his head, and reached for his own untouched glass, "Not at the moment. It might be nothing, but I'll need to run a lead down before I can say for sure. I'll send you what I have by courier if I can't bring them myself." His father nodded, and didn't press the matter. "It doesn't make sense that they'd stay quiet. I'd have expected," The more likely they would have fragmented and turned into just bandits.

"Cai E is still in house arrest here, most likely one of his lieutenants is keeping them in reserve while he's a hostage to their good behavior."

Perhaps so.
--
Like all would be modern armies the Beiyang had taken a long hard look at the results of the Franco Prussian war, and the German victory. The limitations placed on it during the Qing though had prevented it from being able to truly follow on the many developments out of Europe. Allen took the 1907 Model Mauser rifle checked the weapon and returned it.

The railway was the lifeblood of everything they did. It was what allowed them to do business, and spurs from the trunk lines could be built straight up to factories or mines to load them, but men still needed to be able to march, which seemed to have been a problem for the provincial divisions of the Beiyang who simply didn't have the funding to support a baggage train to let them march quickly... the individual soldier might have had standard issue shoes as part of his uniform but the sum of the army and funding was concentrated on its fighting power not feeding the men. That more and more explained the failures in Honan.

"And Bai's spate of failures as well." Was the agreement in English as Cole returned a 7mm Mauser with a scope to one of his corporals. "He's switched a general policy of trying to burn the Hui out of house and home, and taking what he can from their businesses to support his armies." Railways had been built in tandem with telegraph lines and the cables brought news faster than a car could bring troops. Never mind that as he moved west the telegraphs had outstripped the rails, but regardless the general consensus was that Bai Lang had likely divided up his forces and was foraging for sustainment.

Something that could be in no way sustainable even if he had broken down his formations to their sub units... and they all knew that. Allen glanced over the drill field, as a portion of Cao Kun's third division arrived to take time with their 88s. The entire Beiyang army were recruited volunteers not conscripts which distinguished itself from the broader Chinese Republic's army including the provinces. Yuan Shikai wanted Prussian style military education and compulsory service, but the budget just wasn't there. Not that that had stopped provincial armies like Hunan from basically tripling in size after the revolution had ended, and without hostilities to fight in had been dismissed... or were supposed to have been dismissed as Yuan hadn't wanted to pay for their upkeep... and...

"You have that look that numbers in the ledgers aren't right." That wasn't an incorrect comparison. The numbers didn't add up, and it was one thing for Yuan's government to run a deficit. Bai Lang was making up his shortfalls by banditry... "Something your pops say to you?"

"That's part of it," He muttered, "But Shinozaki is passing along material from Shanghai as well where the Kempentai," Both the Army and Navy versions who were for whatever reason distinct, "and other parts down south." Shinozaki hadn't said anything about the busting up of print shops and Allen hadn't commented on it. No point putting the younger man in a position, and they weren't in the city to say one way or another what was what... "And the numbers don't add up. The incomes can't possibly sustain pre revolution expenditures never mind whatever those real expenses are now in the provinces." It had nothing to do with Bai Lang, except that it might be why he kept calling for a third revolution. "Chinese Civilization was born in the north, but it relocated south because the south supports better agriculture," And with that agriculture, and sericulture, a thousand plus years of rice and silk had allowed increasingly large cities, "But you can't support a modern state's budget with growing rice, or taxing salt or any of the other medieval taxes." ... and Chinese tariffs were under foreign control... had been for years. "And about the only thing the Qing did that was universally popular was to freeze taxes at where they were in the eighteenth century, "and yet the provinces keep trying to retain large armies despite not possibly being able to pay for them."

"Doubt its a conspiracy, John," Cole replied, "Think about it. The Qing got upset that the provinces weren't moving fast enough with railways, and decided to hell with it, and nationalized the project. Obviously the plan was to distribute the projects and get actual rail lines built, protesting doesn't work, so a riot breaks out. Army shoots the rioters everyone backs off until that bomb explodes in Wuhan" and suddenly the local garrison mutinies cause all their dirty laundry is out in the open and then a domino of other rebellions fall into place. "It takes a provincial professional army," What the Beiyang had been for the province of Zhili at the beginning, "To start forcing order back,"

He picked up the line of thought as they gave third division the space to shoot at the hay bales, "The beiyang wins its fights with modern weapons but only has so many troops." And of course what had started the whole mess with Bai Lang in the first place was that the expanded army had included other provinces with officers who weren't considered reliable.

"Right so the only way to keep the central government from taking over the rail lines," Or other income, "Would be a big army." He shrugged, "Not that that changes our problem, Bai Lang running around is our problem. Looks like he's Cao Kun's as well, the Ma brothers have kept sending telegrams to him after all, and not just to pass on to Yuan Shikai." Which if Cole was reading the mail chances were the British, Japanese, and so on all were as well.

These would be the last days of spring, and what would follow in early summer of 1914 would be overshadowed by the events in Europe, but for a brief moment in the seasons the wolf hunt would turn into a rush through the countryside.
--
Commentary: Part 3 returns to the field as we touch on a brief glimpse of Bai Lang abandoning his attempts to play robin hood to keep his forces together, and grudges needing to be settled all the while setting for the conclusion of this.

As a sidebar the Beiyang army was as a military formation partially funded by provincial taxes, and partially by the Qing government. Effectively during the Qing period as viceroy of Zhili Yuan Shikai put up funding for the army (really then basically a brigade, and then later a division in size) and the Qing Army ministry would match that. That worked out largely fine, until the Boxer rebellion happened. Qing taxes had been subject to a rate freeze, and had largely relied on the government monopoly on salt to provide revenues from 1722 on, which was a stupid policy, but made possible as that the Qing at the time those policies were made had no major military expenditures, and weren't planning any. Best laid plans, which completely went awry, because England had already begun the first industrial revolution by this point, and the first opium war would start about ~ twenty years into the 'second, or continental European, industrial revolution' and this would be part (the industrial revolution) of the reason France would go on to instigate what is usually referred to as the second opium war. (France felt the need to escalate for a multitude of reasons but thats complicated and beyond the scope of the story). French intervention escalates what might have resolved diplomatically into a second fairly lengthy conflict (lasting officially until 1860.)

Japan unlike China took note of industrialization and began its own part in industrialization, which would at first be modelled on the French, but then switch to Germany (well Prussia originally) after the Franco Prussian war, and the switch of preference wasn't just limited to just Japan. France's defeat severely damaged its international prestige as a world power.

In China's case though there was a desire to modernize but was impeded by Cixi, and this would result in the end of the hundred days reforms which Yuan Shikai only nearly avoided being caught up in that coup because he was too busy being involved in army stuff. However Yuan Shikai did opt to ignore the Empress Dowager during the subsequent boxer rebellion, and that is probably the reason he was pushed into retirement by the court a few years later and the Beiyang army was expanded, which would result in among others the various revolutionary corp officers getting positions in the army in the interim such that in 1911 some purges ended up needing to be carried out (either by the Wu Wei corp, or the beiyang army commanders directly, and while very intertwined these were distinct formations. The Wu Wei corp would eventually end up subsumed into the Beiyang Army. Zhang would even by 1917 have switched from the original black uniforms to the standard Republican gray uniforms for his poorly thought restoration attempt.)

China was running a major deficit on spending, tax reform was unpopular, and infrastructure was getting progressively worse. Also bad weather, crop failures and so forth were complicated by the fact that railroads are a substantially better method of bulk transit than canals this also created other social unrest... and well the Qing had already been suffering many many small revolts (something like a hundred minor rebellions between like 1902-1906 by some some counts). Japanese victory against Russia only further added pressure... and well by 1910 something had to give, and well the result in 1911 turned what was initially taken to just be another minor revolt into Yuan Shikai convincing the court to abolish the monarchy.

That didn't come close to fixing all of the systemic problems and nor could it. However when the 'warlord era' opens up in 1916 (that is to say the following story to this) we will be touching on the move from corporation with developing military wing, to being effectively being now a provincial government to by the end of ww1 a nascent autonomous state. We are wrapping up here, there are a couple minor battle scenes , well skirmishes would be the correct term.

As for the army thing, not only were provincial militaries bad about running deficets, they often inflated the number of troops they had with people who didn't have proper weapons, weapons at all, or just to claim they had troops on the roster who didn't exist as a way to fleece money to pocket... which was something that the British, the soviets, and the US complained about in WW2.

... anyway tomorrow we will update the cimbri inspired battletech fic, at this point I think any other battletech stories won't go up until the new year. I'm still working on figuring out December's update schedule but I think in the new year standard updates will probably change up some. In the new year obviously Autumn of Empires will be carrying on into the more nation building portion of the story with the warlord era part of the timeline

 

[Imperator Pax]

The Hunt and the Banner Part 3​

May of 1914 had brought with it heat, and dust storms. The snap thunderstorms that rolled through fast and hard after lunch time every week or so might have ordinarily broke up the monopoly but it all looked as if summer was going to be hot... and that was nothing compared to the rapacious actions undertaken by brigands flying Bai Lang's banners. Still largely equipped with black powder the Mohammadens of the Gansu corridor could mount little in terms of effective resistance, but it didn't stop them from trying. Local clerics had pronounced fatwas against Bai Lang and his men at the urging of the Generals Ma. The generals and their braves were the only other modern rifle force in the region, but had pushed back to Lanchow after meeting a substantively large and hungry force of bandits. That resistance though been enough to run whichever of Bai Lang's cousins was in charge back east desperately looking for provisions.

It wasn't the collection of bandits they were looking for. They had caught only briefly glimpses of Bai's new, newly joined, Shansi Revolutionary Corp with their gray beiyang style uniforms and their Arisaka rifles. There was a thunder of hooves as the bandit princeling attempted another circling, his cavalry having danced out in the distance trying to churn up dust either to try and intimidate them or convince them that there were more of them than there were. Allen wasn't having it, and for the moment they were holding their fire. No sense in wasting ammunition even if they were on a rail spur it was still two hundred miles west of Xian.

Unfortunately the rail meant that while it had been easy to come this way the same was true for the adventurous sorts. The rail line had been the compromise point inside the cadre to going along with this hunt, but really he suspected that this whole phase of western rail line expansion had been in discussion for at least as long as Adams had been being a nosy busybody sonna of a bitch. The muckrakers would have to be dealt with separately... but the bigger issue was this push to expand investment into a scheme that professed an intention to build double and then some a length of rail that they'd already built. That kind of money would distract anyone, or infuriate them in the case of how the Europeans would see it.

For the moment though there were eleven hundred screaming scoundrels waving sabers in the sun, "Sure would be a shame if the sky opened up and drenched them." Bill observed.

That or a relief given they must have been thoroughly drenched in dust and sweat from all the carrying on, Allen mused, but before he could say something the horsemen had jinked and began a b line towards towards them, "I guess they've committed." He commented.

"Bout time." The texan drawled.

Their backs were to the Wei River, or really the rail line that they had built that ran along the old road. The little town one more two thousand years old village out of touch with back east, never mind the rest of the world. The news that China was now a republic hadn't really made it this far west, not that the word meant anything to them. Their greater concerns the bandits in front of them, not the complaints about Yuan Shikai... 'whoever that was'... being strewn about by Bai Lang's runners.

Up over their shoulders the heavy machine guns mounted in the train's body rotated and trained as the natural curvature of the hills opened into the small river plain that the town had been erected on.. in the short the hills filled in around the time creating a box that was funneling the cavalry down. The Maxims began to chatter away before the infantry was given the direction to fire. He had seen too many times the aftermath of one of these young bloods actually being allowed to ride into a town at full tilt.

Not today though. They'd ride no one down today... possibly ever again. Bill craned a head towards the train's sides to look at the guns.

"Would have been nice if we had the cars."

"Yep," The Texan agreed. Those sheet steel draped cars though were back in the city still waiting to be fitted with search lights, and there was no being sure they would do as well out here in the field... of course horses would need to be provided fodder and so for now they were confined largely to the rail lines... but of course those meant trains to haul equipment and thus the firepower to stop foolhardy cavalry adventures like this.

Eight hundred yards became five hundred and the rifles joined the echo of the machine guns, the hail though had done most of the job already in tearing a ragged mass from the center leading horses and riders dead upon the ground. The modern course of battle of attackers assaulting a fortified defensive line was broken with incongruous pops of pistol fire... far far too close to be from the enemy before them.

The pistols were abruptly answered by the bark of automatic shotguns from the train station's wardens. Station was probably too grandiose a term for the platform as it presently stood, but it was what they had always called it everywhere else. It still would have been the sort of place where there might be plenty of things worth trying to steal. Dynamite came to mind, or just the assumption the payroll might be in the safe somewhere in the ramshackle building. Money, or even provisions could have justified someone making a run at it. He could understand that, even if it wasn't the precise reason they had their flank guard there.

"Think we missed some of the spies?"

"Probably." Was his curt response, these were bandits, and while Bai Lang had done as much as he could to give them approximations of military structure and order how much of those lessons actually stuck was always in question. The merchants did actual merchant things of course, and bought and sold goods while also spying on choice targets ... or at least that had been their prevailing suspicion... but he'd never heard of them mounting an attack like this... unless this was sheer desperation. The pistol fire continued though, and then joined by the reports of mausers from the force on the flank of their column, but no reports of incoming rifle fire. That was less of a relief as the first traces of black smoke began to trail up suggested the side force in town had started to firebomb the thatched roofs of stalls, shops and homes. "Sergeant, inform the madsens they may engage at will." The swoll manchu nodded perfunctorily and moved down to the second row of trenches where the four fire teams of men sat waiting comprising a company of men in their own right. His accent stolid as he barked orders to them.

Cole had intended for the unit to have horses to mimic the Federal Army's cavalry weapon troops... but actually training the men on horses, and so on just had escaped them in the sense of time that they had. The abrupt addition of eight additional machine guns slew down the last of the momentum the charge had still had... not that plowing through the line of barbed wire staked forward of the line would have done much good. The few hundred men in the left flank, the most coherent of the enemy wing had discarded their swords to fire a mix of winchesters and what might have been kropatcheks of some sort at the defenses. Allen turned to them leaving the field glasses resting on his chest, and didn't have to give the order one of the train's Maxim guns swept right into them from its elevated position.

"Modern warfare."

"Take and hold the most favorable ground was the direction in the war between the states."

"Yeah but generals were having to buy gatling guns out of their own pockets in that." Bill paused, "Which I reckon is what we're all apparently still doing." He finished after a moment pushing back to straighten as he stood. The texan turned to one of his lieutenants and pivoted towards town, and hopefully the fires they'd be able to contain before they spread further.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The hunt and the banner
Part 4​

There was a discharge that managed to do nothing but kill a chicken. The men were going to need to eat of course after this but first to put things back in order Allen lifted his left hand and squeezed once, the bandit stumbled back and a face paces scrambling into a heap into the dust of the road clawing at his ruined eyes. Biting the urge to curse he readjusted and shot him this time cleanly through the hand and out the back of his skull, where a final thrash sent him into the dirt for good he stepped over the tube fed repeating rifle the man had dropped in his injury and raised his right to let both automatics chatter into the backs of the fools heedless trying to loot one of the stalls. The few who turned in time found the appearance of fifteen inch blades at the end of mausers to meet them as the infantry section menaced them from his left side. "Sergeant take this men into custody." He ordered the mustachioed man cradling one of the Broomhandles Edenborn had sent years previously. The RPF veteran nodded swaggered forward with three of the men and let a daring string of invectives inviting the bandits to give him any lip.

They didnt. The colour sergeant seemed a bit peeved at being denied the option to give them cold steel on the spot. They were encountering markedly less resistance than he'd expected. Much of the bandits had blackpowder revolvers, apparently of largely spanish production, and only a handful had ungainly long arms, and none designed before 1890. He had expected at least some Gewehr 88 commission rifles, but most were tube fed guns from Europe.

If they had been this close and in column they might have been dangerous still, but they weren't, and this was not a infantry square of 1890. They were armed ruffians usually serving as, presumably, body guards to travelling merchant spies not line infantry... and given the opportunity they'd gotten cocky and happy to try and loot stuff that they could load into their baggage before no doubt fleeing.

Allen loaded the left automatic dropping the still partially loaded magazine into his breast pocket for safe keeping as a lieutenant rushed up to him, "Horsemen are coming." Was the abbreviated declaration after the salute. He replied with 'show me' and the pushed to the old town gate. "See?"

"I see them." He replied evenly. "Run to second platoon tell them to join me on the high ground, and send a runner to third to form with their bayonets at the gate." The lieutenant, from baker company, grabbed two riflemen from his company as runners and rushed to comply as Allen holstered the brownings, and unslung the rifle on his back. Eight hundred yards give or take maybe five, and placed the post just above the man's breast bone, and exhaled.

He saw the flash of the gun and the red spray from the man's side. The horse he was riding reared, as did the one behind him, but there was no time to watch the spectacle unfolding. He tracked sideways and repeated the shots until the follower locked the bolt and he was forced to reach for the stripper clip at his belt. Twelve rounds later as a group of men from Baker began to file up the town gates. Corporals with scoped rifles leading groups of six men, and Cole threw down beside him, "Having fun without me?" He slid his muzzle through the crenulations and tracked into throng of horses.

"Its a hundred men ahorse." He replied.

"At least." Cole agreed as seven mill rifles cracked. "I've got the Vickers being brought along just in case." They fired, "Shang is rallying something, but I wasn't going to interrupt him."

He hadn't given him any specific orders other than to rally a second line of personnel. They needed to get the fires outs and the situation in hand. Allen lowered the reticle and squeezed. They were getting close enough now his zero on the rifle required him to shoot low. "They're going to try and get close enough to volley at us."

"Short of sixty yards they won't hit anything." It would make a hell of a racket, but that went without saying. A fierce whoop raised from somewhere on the side and rear. Allen paid no mind to it, engrossed in the world atop the perch that was the crenulated centuries old town gate and the sandy stone expanse leading into the hills and mountain pass beyond in the north. Cole pulled his rifle back and began to reload, "Well look at that."

He didn't have time to, Cole had stood up and the troops along the gate had begun firing from unbraced and standing positions as the enemy made their last approach beginning to slow for their cavalcade to present their rifles. The vickers had not yet arrived, but the full force of over fifty rifle men into firing ranks opened from the gates.

The point had been to hold the gates as a choke point but a large banner lead the platoon out and into the field before it as second platoon progressed through the portal with bayonet tipped mausers firing at they advanced. Upon a blue field sat a reared dragon in red.

It was the rifle fire doing the work of course, and Allen shouldered the mauser and worked the bolt.

"Wonder who's idea that was?" Cole questioned as the rout took hold.

... he grimaced, "Jun I suspect." He said before centering the crosshair on a fleeing bandit's spine and squeezed the man tumbled from the saddle much of his neck blown away. "Lieutenant," He called to another man in gray, the Chinese man saluted, "Send runners to all platoons and ascertain the lines of defense. I want to know the progress of putting those fires out." He glanced at second platoon standing well outside the town gates and out in the open. Another sergeant, this one a reed tall northern Chinese man, carrying a browning automatic shotgun had taken prisoners and was between them and the beginnings of a lynch mob. He was half tempted to tell the sergeant that the mob should be told the magistrate would be allowed to deal with bandits after everything was done, but decided to withhold. If bandits had taken hostages it might be worth trading a bunch of thieves and ruffians for them if they'd agree to that.

At least to keep it as an option in the short term. He spared a glance at the prisoners, another towards the mob, then the gate, the banner. This was not the scene the newspapers painted. Too often the papers continued to paint Bai Lang's mob as robin hood reporting attacks that had been mounting in the west but the articles written as if they were the same as Bai Lang's earlier ones. Any pretense of politics was absent with this lot. There was another reason of course to keep the prisoners from getting lynched of course... there was a chance that they might be able to shed some light on what Bai Lang had been up to since he had been forced to abandon Sow Gorge back in March... or even for that matter what had developed since he'd been repulsed outside the gates of Xian.

It took more than a quarter of an hour, not quite half, to get word and send word back and start putting things to order. They were getting used ot it, and it wasn't as if Bai Lang's predations were unusual for bandits either, whatever the reason for his sudden enmity or need to vent on the moslem hui and turkish sorts were remained poorly understood but it was looking to be, "Going to be a hot summer." In both temperature and and in terms of fighting.

"So it seems," He agreed. "Put the prisoners in the railway stockade," Improvised as it might have been, "And keep them under guard, I reckon I'll cable Cao Kun, and Peking." Technically they were over the border but he he had no idea where the provincial governor was or how to get ahold of the governor of Gansu... and there was no telling if the political situation regarding leadership in Shensi had stabilized enough that whoever was supposed to be in charge would even know either. Better to cable the capital and let them figure that shit out.
--
Commentary: this is the last part of the penultimate chapter of the white wolf rebellion. The final chapter of this part of the timeline covering the summer of 1914, and the death of the bandit king. Which brings us what has happened by this Bai Lang having been forced into the interior 'the west' of China his forces have largely been scattered and while militarily superior to ethnic Hui, and Han militias under the Ma clique the latter have been able to trade land for time and attrit Bai Lang's relatively large bandit force of in particular ammunition, and horse fodder. By this point in addition to being short on most supplies Bai Lang's forces seemed to have been splintering due to the lack of booty with various groups haying off. This will end with the destructive conclusion in southern Shanxi.

My speculation is that Bai Lang's thrust into Shanxi in mid 1914 (assuming he was actually apart of that force) was that his ultimate goal was the Machine bureau that would be rechristened later as Taiyuan Arsenal in hopes of looting ammunition and weapons from the provincial army. There are some indications in primary sources that Bai Lang had died of his wounds by this point and that Yan Xishan subsequently smashed the bandit army and drove the survivors back south.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The White Wolf Part 1​

He was thinking about the Phillipines again. More so because of the way they had pitched camp... not because of the fight ahead of them.

The dutch ovens merrily sizzled with their victuals of sausage in the bacon grease. Bacon, sausage, beans, eggs, black bread and so on the campaign rations were meant to insure a man had the strength to get through the day. Men would march for belief, or for pay. He aimed to have both in the fight forward of them.

The year before the 'Shansi revolutionary corp' had been displaced from southern Shansi ... most likely because they had been too late in rising for the second revolution and for their own lack of organization. There had been previous 'revolutionary groups' in the local Beiyang army affiliated with Sun's party ... even Yan Xishan had been forthright in declaring with that group during the revolt in 1911 though he had elected not to get involved in the recently dispersed 'second revolution'. Yan's professed neutrality there had likely contributed to the 'Corp's' displacement. The Corps had chosen to throw in Bai Lang, and their avowed politics did seem to line up but the latter's displacement from Honan and subsequent actions made excellent fodder to rouse the men spiritually with.

So even though they were in the field the camp, what the cavalry would have called a fort, had involved knocked together cabins of logs put together by individual squads to house them. More than that though buildings housed the apparatus the battalions involved to run english language classes that would have ordinarily been conducted at garrison. Some fifteen hundred men gathered on to handle the fighting were supported another third just intended to handle supplies and motion... and their workings were in turn forward of laborers from the regular rail side of things.

Even without their numbers there was no assurance that Yan would march to catch Bai in the North... the most likely case to assure Bai Lang actually fought with Yan's provincial army was that if Bai pushed forward to try and take Taiyuan first in order to then turn around and face them from a defensive position and fresh supplies... and that was still a risky strategy for him. By all reports Bai Lang had shed most of his lesser troops sending them into the cities of Gansu corridor and even against the Tibetans.... and most likely that was to consolidate his best troops under him with the best weapons in hopes of reforging his forces from a new stronghold.

It was a desperate gamble, and the cornered fought hardest. If Bai Lang decided to slip Taiyuan and move north... if he got too far north into Mongolia it'd be the Russians problem, Manchuria would mean it might be both the Russians and Japanese... and that would have repercussions of a potentially even more dire sort. If that were to happen, it was to happen he couldn't justify a more northern march beyond Taiyuan... and if they did get that far the way home would be pivoting eastward and returning to the arsenal. If Bai Lang was then out of the field, it would be easier to take a train for Xian, or to Peking or wherever from there on.

First though the wolf.

Bill must have been having similar thoughts, "What are the chances that us running him to Taiyuan actually happens?"

They couldn't really be certain. Even with optical sights and high explosive magnifying the lethality of their batteries the cannons had to actually be in a position where they could burst upon the enemy... and there was no way to be sure that Bai Lang would meet them, "I would say maybe fifty fifty. Maybe not even that. He has to be short on ammunition, the force they were chasing had only a meager baggage column besides and was favoring speed over all else. It was not the kind march that the Beiyang army would have been suited to following, but as the core formation of the bandit king's army they were willing to go through with it, presumably expecting that the results would be worth it... that and now that they were in Shansi, "This is home territory for some of them. I expect that someone has convinced all the rest that they can defeat Yan and take the arsenal and that they can from there somehow hold out against Yuan."

"Could they?"

"No." Without any sort of other distraction and the months passed that had given Yuan Shikai chance to consolidate, "Not with the way Yuan's started talking about reforms to the army." Shensi might never had had Beiyang army divisions formed for the province but Shansi poor as it was was too close to the imperial heart by comparison not to. In theory he supposed taht went back to the Boxer Rebellion or even the Sino Japanese war and the fear of an invasion of Peking. Divisions would be spread two to a province for political reliability but could be called up in the event of invasion. "I'd suspect if Duan wasn't sick he'd be given a chance to bring things to bare," But most likely if conditions worsened it would be a certain qeue wearing fellow. Zhang xun was the most reliable of the old guard, though there were questions that he might be too prone to letting his Wu Wei corp engage in the depredations of the ancient regime... looting would do long term harm and probably help the republican cause in a province where they really didn't need the help. "Anyway I don't think we can insure he rushes to attack Taiyuan, or turns to face us. We can move forward and trying to catch him, and if that brings him into engagement it works," but he still had the chance to take one of the passes and bypass the city, and disappear... or circle around and lose them.
--
They had advanced north and forward a screen for forces, his only real reason to be present was ... really to reign in any too exuberant independent action. The officers needed to be capable of independent action, and then men prepared to fight but they didn't need to take too many cues from Bobby Lee either. The germans of course called it something else, but the mission was to conduct bounding advances of tactical maneuver. He was here such that if the foreward contact came he could direct the smaller units into.

The first contact with the enemy had come about five miles east over the river. Bai Lang's troops had been sighted in the village and the local constables had carried word that identified the leadership of those as scouts under a man named Hsu.

That had been four hours earlier.

The crack of rifle fire echoed in the valley, but neither side showed the tell tale white plumes of black powder. A detachment of cavalry screened in the north east preventing an advance over the river but the horses well back having already experienced what a gallant charge would provoke. The terrain as it was prevented, and benefitted both sides in similar ways, and Hsu was clearly disinclined to to commit to the fight.

It had not gone unnoticed by him that there was distinct lack of brightly colored silk blouses. In a similar fashion to his own troops Hsu's men wore the standard dark gray jackets and trousers established as part of the last army regulations to be promulgated by the Qing in response to the latest fashion of Europe's greatest army.

There was minor qualitative difference in equipment. Hsu's troops largely had the older 88s, with the exception of his cavalry carrying what he was relatively sure were 1895 Lever Actions. A significant step forward in time from the Kropatchek carbines encountered weeks earlier, though larger and less nimble due to their weight. "Are the guns in place?"

"Not yet, and if he runs we're going to have to unlimber them and move."

He wasn't sure if he wanted to chase Hsu. The man was acting cautious and had to have to dispatched a messenger to whatever larger force he belonged to. "If we cross the river it'll take time and bear us down," And it was while not as severe as his native Georgia, at a hundred degrees the humidity was approaching painful. "We're not going to move the guns. Dig them in for elevation," He half expected some lip, but it didn't come, and the red leg departed returning only after the lines had been dragged.

It was a calculated move. Dug in Krupp claimed the three inchers would give them five miles, they were going to have to see if that was true. They hadn't brought the fifteen centimeter beasts, it would have been too much of a burden to bring them but Bai Lang didn't seem to have any artillery that they'd seen, and Hsu certainly didn't. "Alright I've given the order, but they're spread out enough that they have to be expecting us to do so... and if we do everyone for miles will hear it." So even if Hsu's presumed runners hadn't gotten there they'd know something was going on.

He surveyed the spilled ground, and the almost a mile between the two extremes of each. The tail of Hsu's host in the west had trickled across the Fen to rejoin the rest but his line had largely solidified into what were presumably companies. Neither army had much in the way of the great trailing baggage trains of the wars of a century ago. No drummer boys. No swarms of oxen, or horses, and at least for the moment no buzzards looking to filch the flesh from corpses though that would change as the heat went to work.

"Howitzers."

There was the explosive roar, the bombastic discharge of the cannons from the rear and then to the north their descent and explosion. He expected that there were probably something similar to their sections, easily at least a dozen men maybe as many as twenty and each company looked close to two hundred men. The first desultory phase of shooting though came in low, falling well short of the enemy force.

Dawes groused about overcorrecting for the distance, picked up the field telephone and repeated his complaints to relay it to the layers. The effect had been spoiled though the opening strike had convinced Hsu to expedite his withdrawal, and in good order. Grey uniformed troops filed away from the field by company even as the seconds went out. Dawes returned to the telephone and called the firing to halt. "Do we cross the river?"

Was it better to cross the fen here? Or try further north? What was Bai Lang going to do? The questions forced him to consult the map, but he remained cognizant of the forested tracks of mountains to their west, they would get steadily closer as they moved north, eight miles to three if they followed the western course of the river.

They would move the regiment up... and in a few days prepare for a battle all the while still receiving copies of papers and telegrams from the east bringing word from all around the world.
--
Commentary: This is part 1 of the final chapter for this part of the timeline, we will finish up this year, and in the new year, most like first of the year we will open in July of 1916 after Yuan Shikai's death and then break down that follows into the core years of the warlord era.

 

[Imperator Pax]

The White Wolf Part 2​

They had advanced several miles dropping the distance between them and Taiyuan to under forty kilometers. They had kept the river between them and the enemy and dug trenches and light fortifications where possible and to put together shelter to get the men out of the sun.

That had become doubly important when they had crossed the river yesterday.

It was hot, humid, and the sun was painfully bright with a hard wind blowing down through the valley. It was the sort of weather it wasn't worth shooting in, and there was a general directive to hold fire unless fired upon against targets at range. The five hundred meter had been brought in to the two hundred meter zero of the rifles.

It was in part to conserve ammunition. It was also to maximize the destructive power of the rifle company. Each company opening up from their defenses at that close had a much better chance of bringing the enemy to a dead stop, and if not the ranks of repeating rifle fire within a minute would savage an attacker. That had been the doctrine even before the advent of the machine guns that anchored the positions turning the open rice fields into killing fields.

Conservation of ammunition though applied to the enemy as well. Their strategy seemed originally to keep them at arms length, and to avoid a decisive clash. That had been their initiation consideration of this engagement... that Bai Lang or which ever of his lieutenants would not choose to contest the afternoon. That was less certain now... which might have suggested he had been replaced, or perhaps reinforced. There was no way to tell.

No way to tell before the killing started. "No sign of any blackpowder." Cole declared throwing himself down haphazardly onto the bench seat behind the rammed earth wall. The news wasn't really news. The billowing white smoke could be seen for miles if a force was large enough. He settled for asking the real question, and not playing any games. "We can't tell. Hsu's force of cavalry have pirouetted smartly but I'd lay money that all their ponying is a bait."

No sign yet of the Shansi Revolutionary Corp, but all that remained of Bai Lang's once eclipsing swarm of locusts were equipped with modern rifles and the gray uniforms of the late Qing...and agreed with Cole that at least they weren't assaulting up the mountain. They were fighting up the valley as it were towards the provincial capital... and that meant eventually if they kept playing this game of hop scotch that they'd reach the end.

There was a volley of rifles in the north somewhere.

"Reason we might not be seeing them is the the Shansi boys might be having a go of it, and Bai has this lot here to check us."

"You think so?" He questioned. Those reports had been audible even if the sound had been wrong to be pointed at this line.

"Well we hadn't heard Bill shoot back."

True. There had been no return fire, second battalion could have been directed to hold fire entirely... or the shots had been so off the mark that they hadn't realized they'd been the intended targets. That seemed less likely. Surely Bai Lang hadn't had troops stumbling around... of course everyone did seem to be dressed greyback today.

It was the hot part of the day, and dusk was almost six hours off. Dog company the last of the four of 1st​ Battalion was ordered to hop up out of their firing positions and move up... or more correctly Dog split dividing into pairs of platoons to maneuver. Under their officers one half watched the others dig the shallow US doctrine style foot deep fighting position. It was designed to offer protection to fire a rifle from, and would do little against artillery, but Bai Lang didn't seem to have artillery.

A few hundred yards hopping forward... and no one started shooting at them. Allen exhaled. They weren't being contested. "Move your commandos up." He ordered. Cole nodded while A-C Companies remained where they were. The game of hurry up and wait continued through the day, and the following into an advance that narrowed the valley to about twenty miles wide. Some of hte villages to the north east had been looted and burned, probably over the last few days, but there was no indication that he had moved from the river plain into the town proper

Almost fourteen years earlier the boxers had carried out a massacre here with the governor having been either unable or unwilling to stop them, just as Yan didn't seem to have the ability to stop the several thousand bandits sweeping up from the south. As if to flaunt this Bai Lang had taken to flying the Wuchang banner from what was probably his central position. Along with it flew the Shansi revolutionary corp, and his personal standard.

"Bring the guns up." He meant effectively to where they would be on near to direct fire. They could dig them in if the battle called for it. It had not escaped either himself or the correspondence by telephone and telegraph that command of a regiment was most typically the responsibility of a full bird colonel. How funny that back in Tietsin no one was making such comments about Bai Lang's rank within the beiyang was somehow reason to prevent his leading a brigade sized force at least. "Direct the batteries to prepare for continuous fire."

He supposed though that in a way that might have been true. The brigade was probably the largest size force that Bai Lang could manage effectively. It had been this way early last year... the outbreak of a second revolution had swelled it, and his head apparently, and now it had reduced back down to its current size of several thousand.

1st​ battalion had the river to its left providing some measure of screen as second spread out along their right facing north. They were careful in spreading out and had given the enemy a choice of escape routes if it came to that where they could make a run for it south. It wasn't really even a trap, if they had had more artillery and machine guns it would have made sense to cover that whole flank... but the idea was to avoid convincing the bandits on the flanks to fight.

"Lets see if it works."

There was a strategy in mind. Whether it would succeed, who could say. He wondered if Bai Lang had received word of his cousin's death at the hand's of old man Ma.... or more accurately their troops. He had been hoping that Bai Lang would be caught in a position where he had been under the fire of the city's guns... but Yan's old cannons probably didn't have the range... or he was husbanding them until he was sure his gunners would hit what they meant to. There was no real way to be sure from here.

They had made the objectives of maneuver as clear to each of the lieutenants as was possible. They either understood the orders, or they didn't by this point... whether they could carry them out would remain to be seen... and that might be wholly separate from understanding. Some of the heat had bled off along with the humidity. It hadn't been a lot of rain, but enough to take some of the edge off... but it was looking like the killing would be done out under the sun in the plain south of the city.
At eleven o'clock in the morning a scant few hundred yards behind an infantry company's spread out platoons the three inch guns of Battery A opened. Fifteen minutes later the Krupps of B joined them. Sheltered behind locally harvested pine timbers troops like the rounds go out and looked to their sergeants for indication of when the order to go up and over would come.

They, the cannons, were certainly not his final resort.
He picked up the field phone. "We are going to make Duan look bad." Bill's voice sounded tinny along the phone line.

Maybe, "You think so, well always a good excuse to justify new guns." Their guns were more modern... and it was true that the improvement to the wheels did make them more manageable.... but he doubted that had been the only impediment. The rail line running up as far as it did already had been the real help... as had the ability to expand on that. They had work crews averaging just shy of twelve miles of track a day and that meant trains could run from the farmstead in Jin where they had started this last phase of the march.

 

[Imperator Pax]

Prologue
Eve of the Warlord Era
August 1916​

In the grand scheme of things the office here was almost painfully close to Tietsin. Not that the letter from Reinsch would not still have reached him even in their Xian offices. The last two years had been a whirlwind. Griswold had opined that he should think the war in Europe would never end, but it would have to. John Allen was a tall man and sat behind the large hardwood desk staring at that rambling entreatment.

It appealed with a matter of'factness, an earnestness that told him the academic had never been a business man. That Paul just didn't get it. He took the law and the 'agreements' between nations seemingly wholly on face value.

He spared the two year old a glance as the boy waved insistently at the little jade ornament on his desk. The boy shouldn't have been here of course. This was an office, not a damned play pen. Jun's younger brother was visiting and somewhat reluctantly the maid had brought the boy here to calm the little tyrant. He could walk now which made him somewhat more unmanageable. "That is enough Augustus." he informed the stamping toddler fixing the boy with the same expression his father had used on him enough. Caught on the spot the boy stopped, he picked up the knickknack and held it out gold foot first. Augustus took it and sat on the floor.

That left him returning to the letter... and the business of the last two years. The Europeans couldn't continue the war forever. They didn't have the money for it. The French, the British, and the Russians were all borrowing from each other, and more importantly from New York. Britain had been in an industrial trade imbalance with the states since the start of the century of course and this thing had only made it worse.

He looked at the sheet. He had made painfully clear that in his opinion to Reinsch, as they had eulogized Rockhill... and also to annoy Addams, that neither Christian morals nor democracy had anything to do with what had let the British become the empire the sun did not set upon. It was economics, pure economic calculus. England had imported from the continent, from admittedly a protestant Sweden, various reforms. Various ideas. Everything from its army, to banks, and stock markets, and it wasn't as if Sweden hadn't developed those sorts of things from the law of moses either. No the Swedes had made those innovations not out of protestant work ethic but due to the strife and necessity of the chaotic mess the continent had been, because there had been opportunity to be had in experiments, and innovations. The majority of the English were just as loath to leave their villages as German peasants were they were born they lived they died in their same counties their whole lives for the most part. The opportunity for wealth though had convinced some, for economic enrichment and power had convinced some to try for more than just their base existence in the mouth country.

It was a cynical almost nihilistic cruel reality, and Reinsch hated the brutal pragmatism of the theory. It did nothing to preclude people from being moral, or inherently good or inherently bad for whatever such subjective terms meant. England had industrialized first. Then America, and maybe the Canadians too he supposed. Then after the downfall of Napoleon only then, by importing the lessons of steel and railways from England had France and Germany began to industrialize... and Germany had learned all too well. The Kaiser had inherited a Germany that produced more steel than Britain did per annum... but Britain had her colonial empire, and all the credit that afforded the Empire.

Even with a war on, even with so much capital there, the empires of Europe still believed that they could act the same, and that upset Reinsch. Reinsch believed in the open door policy, and wanted free trade, and the competition of firms on equal grounds. Which would admittedly have been nice... but that wasn't the way the French for example saw it, or the Japanese, or the English, or the Russians.

Two years ago the most destructive war in the history of civilization had begun over some fool thing in the balkans. Of course the origin of Reinsch's letter began earlier in 1914. Yuan had crushed the revolt in the south, run the southern doctor back to Japan, and went back to the thankless business of trying to put the country to rights... or near enough. The whole Seims Carrey business had begun as a grand plan to do what the Manchu's should have done a damn century back... commit to a meaningful rebuild of the grand canal. Not that there had been any railways in France back then, which was of course the other part of the agreement, and it was within the French and Russian spheres in particular that Seims Carrey would have especially intruded.

That would have been headache enough. Naturally of course that wasn't all, heaven forbid that that was all, that that alone would have been enough for Reinsch. Seims Carrey and the corporate interests were concerned with the bottom line and not the vagaries of political machinations of the state department. The program though had started before the war, and before Japan had invaded German Shandong.... before their stupid 21 demands.

That poorly thought out bit of idgetry would have been the sort of heavy handed nonsense had come most probably from Hayashi throwing his weight around. There had been a fleeting moment, a decade ago where he had the shot. Where Hayashi could have been snuffed out with a well placed spitzer bullet... but Eugene had appealed to his better nature. So Hayashi had survived the hermit kingdom... and even if he hadn't Japan would have still gobbled up Joseon. They would have blamed the 'Righteous Army' for the shooting, blamed the Koreans and retaliated against them. It had been that which had stopped him.

That however had been ten long years ago... and the last two years had seen even greater changes. The outbreak of war in Europe had meant a desperate rush for all manner of goods for the war effort, and less competing foreign capital in China.

Seims Carrey was only part of that, because it had predated the war, even if they had tried to finally move on just , only just this spring. Japan claimed it interfered with their 21 demands, Reinsch claimed that their objections (like those of the French and Russians, and British...) violated everyone's previous agreements and affirmations to an open door policy in china.

The development corporation was older than that agreement still, and it had changed as well with the influx of european money to buy material for the war effort. Or Japanese money for goods as well. The Cadre had originally been a hundred members each a one percent buy in into the stock, the initial venture's capital. Each of the original hundred had had an equal share, and equal voice, but that had been before the end of the Qing. The Cadre was still a hundred man body of course, a hundred experts, but there had been turn over. Old shareholders had been bought out, or even died, and that had seen a change on the horizon before war were declared.

Even before the declaration of war between the empires of Europe their rail network had stretched a thousand miles deep into the interior of China. A great feat, and not their only one. American style industry, tooling, factories all of it had been the goal of a program to create a domestic market where people would want to buy locally made modern conveniences and produce steel, and all the rest, as well as to be able to export those goods to overseas markets. Economics. The shares had thus been consolidated by 1914 to a still sizable original membership.

But that had been before the influx of British pounds. British pounds loaned to the French, and Russian to buy arms. British pounds to provide funds to Australia's defense needs. British pounds... well so on and so forth. So instead of finally selling Remington Rolling Block rifles to the Chinese army as had been the plan for hte Qing it was the French, and Russians who ended up buying them in order to outfit second line troops, and colonial forces who didn't need modern rifles. At least that was what they had been told was why the orders were placed. He had no reason to believe that that was untrue... but that was what they had done at the arsenal for almost two years.

Easy money.

Supposedly they now had enough of those outdated arms. He thought of the new pattern Enfields and wondered if they might buy those.

Which brought them back to the matter of what that influx meant. Europe was spending all of its capital on the war. It didn't have the money to make foreign investments and was accruing debt at an astonishing rate. So it was no wonder Hayashi felt he could make the twenty one demands. At least that made sense for their relative position. Reinsch did have a point that France, and Russia really should have been focused on fighting the huns rather than cawing about their asian spheres of influence.

There was still one more facet of the last two years though that just made everything worse. Yuan Shikai had decided that China needed an Emperor and that he should fill that role.... and the south had revolted again. Sun's people had called it the 'National Protection War', which was a stupid grandiose title... but overly grandiose titles aroused the masses more than accurate ones did. Sun's ill prepared, poorly equipped, and broke provincial allies had still been numerous enough to be a headache... but it was really the issue of money that was the issue when you got down to it.

Yuan wasn't exactly flush with cash either with the bankers tied underwriting loans to Europe... and it had strained the Beiyang army. Militarily the professional northern army had won, but it had shown the vulnerability... and Sun had something like twenty? Thirty failed rebellions going back to before Allen had graduated West Point. He had had at least ten before John Allen Forrest had arrived in Joseon. Of course what had a few rebellions meant to the Qing... that had had hundreds in that same time period.

The money just wasn't there though. Yuan Shikai could have won in the field, but it wouldn't have a political solution in the distant south. He couldn't have conquered and held provinces like Yunan. So he had backed down, gone back to just being president. Then maybe, that would have settled things. Things might have worked out.

Yuan Shikai had always been cognizant, had frequently mentioned that the men in his family didn't live long lives. He had died just recently, and now the whole country waited to see what was going to happen. Who was going to be in charge of China?

--
Commentary: alright we are finally to the original part of the timeline and the first update of the year. Yuan Shikai like a number of Chinese leaders during this period may have actually been poisoned, but he was also in poor health, he drank a lot, was under a lot of stress, and was very cognizant in his writings that yeah men in his family didn't tend to live real long lives. So in this, it doesn't really matter if Yuan was or wasn't poisoned.

He died already, and now there are just all the broken pieces. So similar to how White Wolf ran, this opens as the political dominoes fall (in White Wolf Song Jiaoren's assassination occurs at the beginning roughly speaking, here its Yuan's death) as a result of a politician's death. The majority of 'Arc 1' of the warlord era takes place in the following year, 1917, but will conclude the roughly two year arc in July of 1918. At which point we will start Arc 2.

On that note, what will probably happen is that I will start posting some other Alternate History fiction in this thread besides stuff set in the Chinese Warlord CYOA derived timeline. Though it probably won't go up in this thread, I have a SI in Sharpe's (Novel series by Bernard Cromwell) that will probably start in the misc thread soon. Among other projects

 

[Imperator Pax]

August 1916
Prologue III​

The Germans were bombing London with their Zeppelins.... presumably they were still doing it, though the paper recounted events from last week. Airpower was unlikely he thought to determine the course of the war in Europe, it was still maturing... and there was already an immense shortage in the necessary wood to make airframes as it was. It was however clear that in spite of that the Zeppelin was not the future. Six years after the flight at Kitty Hawk at one of Yamagata's festivities one of the navy boys had gotten enough whisky in to boast that his imperial majesty would one day fly from ships... not that Japan wasn't the only one. The Navy and the Army, under the signal corps at the time, back home had been working towards it... and of course Yuan had used the handful of French planes to harass and observe the southern rebels by dropping sticks of dynamite during the Xinhai revolt, and again during the second revolution.

Yuan's solution had been purely ad hoc. In Europe though whole squadrons were being stood up and consuming the wood in great quantities that Europe was having trouble already sourcing spruce, and that meant France and England were eager for any lumber that could come out of the pacific northwest, and if they couldn't get that then they and the rest of the Entente... like Australia who had just opened their first flying academy were buying whatever else they could get.

That meant that it was an expense to bid on that was unpalatable in 1916 especially for Duan Qirui... the new Premier wanted his air force to still fly of course but it was too expensive to buy new planes right now. Not that Qirui didn't have entirely practical interest in air planes, far more so than his predecessor, he wanted them to spot for his artillery, and to observe and report on what the enemy were doing. Qirui was looking at the next fight with the south, that much was clear even when his exotic list was looking at buying three or 'perhaps four' aircraft whenever funds became available.

It seemed unlikely he'd be able to buy anymore French G2s. John Allen wasn't sure the French Caudron firm were even still making that model given the Germans squatting in the French industrial heartland. With the Germans at War with the Brits, there was no way for German goods, even if they had been available to reach markets in China that normally consumed them. That wasn't to say the war was bad for the economy. Far from it, Allen had expected in 1913 with the free trade and dropping of tarrifs by wilson that they'd see tidy profits selling goods into the states certainly the US was larger trade partner... but the war had done something Allen hadn't expected it to. The British needed goods, and that meant being able to sell goods into India without having to contend with Raj's prohibitive tariffs for once. A year and a change earlier they'd inked deals with the British, and Japan to sell steel in order to help meet demand for the insatiable war machine... and that was why the shares of the company were no longer divided between a hundred men.

It was why Seims Carey though had been such a headache as well. Realistically, Reinsch's involvement in the schme aside, that would have involved a great deal of money... and probably with Reinsch having stirred the French and the Russians up they'd still make money. Yuan Shikai had well understood that the movement of armies depended on the logistical backbone that the railways provided. To mix biological metaphors it was the circulatory system to move supplies and troops to combat infection.

As much though as Yuan Shikai had been a friend, Duan's ascent to leadership of the Republic wasn't without its benefits either. Yuan had dreamed of a grand return, a resurrection of the social Confucian halcyon days of old extolling the standards of gentlemen scholars like the Ban family of the Han dynasty... and those call backs to the ancient regime had to also go hand in hand with adopting modernism, because Yuan Shikai had been committed to modernizing the country at least from an economic and military perspective. He wanted to be like Germany, to whom he saw that the Japanese had based themselves off of.

... and to an extent Yuan had been successful in in insuring that Duan's new government would not be burdened by having hundreds of thousands of southerners in the army. The beiyang military had been loyal to Yuan, and in theory so long as Duan could keep paying them and avoid quarrelling with the other generals they'd stay with him. Even if they did split, the division were more likely to strike off on their own, and that meant that Duan was prepared and able to use them to keep the bandits in the northern provinces mostly under control through the application of the army.

So as September approached and the currents of dissent and resentment in the provinces towards the old government ebbed a new one began to try and put the country together. After all the various provinces in the south had all sort of kind of agreed in principle that htey didn't want Yuan to be emperor, but now that Yuan had passed away the question was of what then. Duan was definitely looking south though.

"Can he do it?"

"If he can't, its got a good chance of turning into 1911." It would be over the same province even. Hunan, and Szechwan, had both rescinded their declarations of independence after military defeats but they had also had newpapers circulating talking about drafting constitutions for the provinces and so both before and after. "But Tsai O is the only army left in the field and he won't leave Yuunan." and Yuunan was still clinging to its declaration of independence because Tsai knew Duan couldn't march the army that far south and fight so far from Peking.

Intercepted telegraphs demonstrated that Tsai didn't trust Duan, but he also didn't trust Sun since the latter was getting money from the Japanese... but the question was, "Are we sure?" Allen questioned, Tsai claimed to be governor of Szechwan, but it wsa unknown how much he was actually willing to act on that, "Does he really mean to keep Yunan independent?" Not that the latter was a great issue. "What does he want?"

"We don't know." Dawes replied, then spared a glance to Griswold. "He could be sick or something."

"You think so?"

"He visited a hospital when he was in Japan, I think its consumption, but I haven't been able to prove it. Whatever it is he's using opium to treat it." That suggested if nothing else whatever it was it was severe if the Japanese were issuing a prescription for Opium to treat whatever it was. "Either way Tsai was insistent he return to Yunnan to oppose Yuan, now that Yuan's gone he might return for treatment, which means he might not be in charge."

That was on the national scene though. Duan's movement into Hunan still moving northern power too far south to be sustainable. The prospect of Yunnan's dujun dying wasn't likely to help stability in the south any.
--
The prospect of things falling apart had been endured ... well even before the qing. Indeed the final fall of the qing had been a surprise. Yuan in his lead up to his enthronement had proffered that it was because the Manchu were a much degraded foreign dynasty. Republic was just a grand work brought from overseas, but really it had been the Manchu finally being too weak to manage central control... but that could have just been Yuan trying to justify his part in forcing the abdication of the last, the infant, emperor.

Unlike in Xian, though Peking had not seen any mass lynching or destruction of the Manchu quarter... and he still wasn't quite sure what had touched that off in 1911.The RPF of five years earlier had been an emergency, an ad hoc expansion of simple railway security... after all their authority extended fifty miles on either side of the tract you needed some body to keep order. The modern brigades were larger professional forces but a direct response to the tide of deserters that had swelled Bai Lang's horde, and threats like that. Szechwuan was crawling with bandits, and Hunan wasn't much better due to its proximity, and if the Beiyang was serious about going in the bandits would slosh out like from a bail.

They might stay south of the yangtze... they might not.

There was a rippling volley from the firing line of the range. "I am not comfortable reducing the training time." He told Griswold. The men were not supposed to be volleying their shots, but as was a tendency at the firing line the man to the side of you shooting tended to result in you shooting.

"Not what I'm here for actually." Griswold doffed his hat and sat down, "I'm certainly not going to say we should reduce the time at all. Not what I'm here though for," He repeated, and Allen quirked, "I need you to go to Tiestin and talk to some people."

That wasn't good, "Go on." He muttered watching the young graybacks shuffle to the line as they rotated.

"Bill has been told," Bill had been told that was a deflection to distract from the fact Griswold had probably told the Texan where to look, "That British still have the German Garison at Shangtung's equipment."

"That's not news." He replied.

"They didn't spike the guns."

"Ah," And Griswold wanted them, of course, but, "And the British don't want to give them to Duan Qirui for what reason?"

"The general doesn't want to... China is a non belligerent country he thinks it would be-"

"dishonorable?"

A shrug, and a maybe, "But the General also knows we're doing business on behalf of the Foreign Office, and the Munitions, and while he outranks Colonel Matheson, Matheson has high friends, and the general's brother is an anglican missionary who thinks your a stand up fellow keeping the hordes at bay sort," Allen snorted, "the Foreign Office can convince the treasury that trading us the supplies and ammunition saves his majesty six pense and shillings in guard duty and space in exchange for bread, beer, and beef for the troops." The General's troops ate well, and always had even before he had come on scene the china station was a nice posting.

"And how much of this have you already worked out?"

"Jordan is returning to London soon."

"For vacation." Though... why anyone would go to London to vacation escaped John Allen... Paris made sense... when there wasn't a war on, but London felt like it was a giant bank before it was anything else. "He'll be coming back?"

"Yes, sure, but the scrapping in the office, or what for Englishmen passes for that in an office could derail the whole mess. Ply him with some brandy and about the bandit situation in Shansi, tell em about Bai Lang's folks running south, and get a letter. Once its done it won't matter a'tall. Alston won't be able to do a damned thing about it."

Allen wasn't quite sure about the new guy. Alston had... proven hard to read, but he almost certainly wanted Jordan's job, and the rumor was originally that he had been slated for it. "Hickling thinks he will be an issue to it."

"General Hickling doesn't have a grasp on the man, other than he's constantly cabling London." That seemed an exaggeration, but it was well known Alston had come to China expecting a much grander post than just replacing MacKay.

"I was going to Peking, anway" Bill was still up at the hotel there anyway, and there were other concerns, "Tiestin is going to be potential issue bsides the Far Eastern Department gossiping like hens."

The consensus was that they needed to expand. There was still an argument over whether or not brigades had to give way to division structures and if so who should command divisions while the world in the field was handled. "Xian is a big city, getting it electrified is a big project." A brigade was a fine size for a town in zhili and second brigade out of Zhengzhou was actually split up to its regiments along the rail line... but third while well equipped felt small for the city it was responsible for especially with the disputes between different regional powers who insisted on shooting at one another.

--
Commentary: there is one more part to the prologue as we delve into among other things the Bang style action driven rifle of General Liu and the matter of arms, and we'll talk about arms in a moment.

Yamamoto Eusuke came from a naval family and its probably apocryphal that he got into a discussion at a Christmas or new years party in 1909/10 and enthusiastically declared that Japan would fight with metal ships in the sky (I've also heard metal birds but that is almost certainly a later translation convention), but he was convincing enough to the Diet, and politically connected enough (he came from and established samurai family, and this was alos one of the few things the army and navy both agreed on) for the diet to approve funding of a project study on balloons and the military application there of... which of course the army and navy both immediately took the money and went looking at fixed wing aircraft (planes) because of course they did. (but surely Yamamoto's response to being asked would have surely been: "Its for the emperor its fine", which I'm sure the liberal party who was in power at the time (this was right around the Taisho crisis) would have been so thrilled by.)

Tsai O (or Cai E) did in fact die of tuberculosis, he was not so far as it is known an opium addict but opium was a traditional treatment for tuberculosis and Tsai O made several trips to Japan for medical treatment, including his ultimate final trip where he passed away in 1916 several months after Yuan Shikai. So a few months after this chapter's events... and his death coupled with existing instability in Szechuan and Duan Qirui's own actions in Hunan as well as other factors made 1917 a very awkward year for the republic. Szechuan would be a hot bed of bandit activity for decades

 

[Imperator Pax]

August 1916
Prologue IV​

Yuan Shikai had had the exact opposite reaction to the RPF, or rather what the RPF had become, than some of the southern newspapers. Of course if Allen honest those same southern newspapers only disliked it because of the hand they had played in Bai Lang's death. Yuan Shikai readily admitted that provinces still needed provincial militaries, even if he was convinced by political necessity to make it difficult for them to exist due to distrusting the southern provincial leadership... but the brigades of foreign trained modern soldiers guarding the big western line?

Yuan Shikai had been happy with that. It meant he didn't need to tie down Beiyang troops hunting bandits outwest, and the line to Xian made it easier to collect tax money in the western provinces. The Ma Clique simply brought their taxes to Xian from Kansu and Xinjiang it got put on a train, and thus it passed through far far fewer intermediaries.

It still wasn't a great deal in tax revenue, but that wasn't the point. Yuan pointed to the railway and said progress, and said it reduced corruption and that was good for the country. He had used that argument to try and press for Seims Carey's audacious building plan.

The plan that had elicited such an outrageous petulant tantrum from the French and Russian concessions despite their ongoing war. Seims Carey had been opened to discussion and planning in 1914 before the war. Two years. Two years and who knew how many Europeans dead on European soil, and millions more to die in all likelihood ...

But at the same time he could understand why. The French were not the English. Even though they were allies, France would never be the Empire that the British were. French was no longer the language of diplomacy, and English had superseded it as the language of trade as well. Edward Gray was an old fool to think England needed France... but that didn't make the Republic weak they had lasted this long against the huns... which was more than Allen had expected to be honest. Of course the Russians had thrown who knew how many men into eastern Prussia on a fool's quixotic charge to buy Paris time... but the Russians had another rival of their own, to their east.

Japan, who was also a British ally.

John Allen tossed the newspaper aside. The man across from him was older, but age was not what made the difference between them. John Allen Forrest was not a small man, tall even by western standards and with his hair freshly trimmed he wore chinese sleeved silk suits cut by a tailor who had been in the trade longer than John Allen was alive. He'd doffed the jacket, which ordinarily would have covered the asiatic buffalo hide holsters for the ivory handled browning automatics he wore. The holsters were new, a gift made to avoid wasting the hide of a fine old bull. The medallions inset in the ivory grips bore not colt's rampant stallion but the castles of the US Army engineer corp. Oak leaf clusters engraved the above the safeties.

A testament to what had been a life time ago.

Paul, the older man, was dressed more like he'd be going to lecture. The president had snatched him him from some university in the midwest and he dressed like it. Most of the time. His suits were broader, fitted but cut to sack suit styles popular with those emulated England. Reinsch didn't carry a gun, but in the last two years had become inured to the 45s. This was the ambassador of the United States and minister plenipotentiary and all the rest of so on and so forth to the Republic of China. "Will you actually build a rail to Lhasa?"

"Probably, eventually." He was hardly going to admit that Yuan had wanted one out that way. "I don't want trouble or to here anything about Simla Paul. I build a line out that way its because the locals are alright with me building one to Xian."

"But you could." Ability yes. "Talk them into it?"

"Tibet is a complicated mess of tribes." Some of whom had fought against Bai Lang's western most reavers in 1914, which made them positively disposed to him. "IF," He stressed the word, "If we build anything out west its because old Ma is alright with it."

"Aren't there a couple of Old Mas."

Allen shrugged, "There are, but thats also part of the reason Cao kun has the rail billet."

"That's how it will get through government. Cao Kun will handle the paper work for it." He seemed a bit displeased about not going through 'official channels', "Ma Anliang, what about Mr Yang?"

The Old Mas had most of the old Hui Braves.... barring the ones saddled up north who had only just recently, before Yuan's death, finally getting around to replacing their black uniforms for the gray ones. "Yang knows Cao Kun will approve it, so Peking approves it. He doesn't mind so long as its in writing."

"Because you were Yuan Shikai's friend."

Well that and rifles and other military accoutrements, nothing heavy, to the Ma Army, certainly didn't hurt. "We have an understanding Paul. He pays his taxes to Peking, I make sure that it gets ferried to Peking."

"You mean that it doesn't end up in the capital with funds missing."

"That's what I said." He shook his head, and the question turned to what he could get out of such a horse trading scheme, "Look what I get out of it is that no one will attack my trains. A bandit attacks my trains," He gestured to the map, "He has to run pretty damned far to get clear of it."

"The brigade in Xian,"

"And the Ma have whole divisions of men, do you have any idea what Ma Fuxing," One of the other Old Man Mas, "does to railway thieves," Well according to rumor most thieves, "The ones he catches? Yeah, well its classical." was the word he settled on. He had almost said biblical.
--
He eyed the long case with curiosity as William McCulloch stepped to one side to let Reinsch depart. Bill was one of only a few people that made Allen look normal sized. The Texan glanced at the closing dark stained wooden door, and pushed it with his foot to make sure it was good and closed. "Hell of wind that hit back home, I just missed that storm you know."

"How is your daddy Bill?"

"The old man is fine. The colonel is still sporting," The Texan shrugged because no one who knew the colonel would have been surprised. Colonel McCulloch was eighty years old, "Oil is doing good." He paused, "The wells have been on about just a year now."

Allen glanced at the case at a hint, but Bill ignored.

The texan made a pointed show of putting it down and then turning around to look at the door that Reinsch had left through tsked and shook his head, "I tell you what Al, we get more belly aching from preachers, god I don't even know."

"The school?"

"You know it." The Texan declared wandering around to the wet bar and fishing through the bottles finally finding what he was looking for. A glass slid down the mahogany filled with a caramel colored whisky, "Belly aching chicken shits." Bill grunted draining the glass.

"How do you think I feel, I need doctors and chemists." He shook his head and picked up the glass that had been slid over to him, "Hell I need surgeons." He sipped. They needed veterinarians. They needed a lot of damn specialists. Teaching the bible didn't get you anywhere the kids needed to learn math. They needed to learn English just so they could use it to learn other sciences. It was industry that built a country up. "What was the problem?"

The Texan deflected from the question and then gestured to the case. "Problem, no problem." He gestured to the leather shooting case he'd brought along, a little more insistently so Allen walked over as Bill gave his monologue, "Made with Pratt and Whitney tooling," He unzipped the case, "Liu thinks he can get Hanyeng that he can make 'em." Allen felt his eyebrow raise in skeptical surprise. Quality control was terrible there, in no small part because Liu was never around to run the shop, it was why all of their stuff was made in a factory of their own in Xibaibu. He stared at the rifle. It was semi automatic, like his model eight or the M1907 that they had bought up before the war had gotten underway. "Yeah Its in the 8 mil Mauser, which we got plenty of that. Mild enough that Liu can shoot it from a horse, that was a sight I tell you."

That was an understatement. Their little army was majority equipped with German rifles. "This is the thing he's been working on for two years?"

"Going on, yeah." Allen gave a low whistle as he took the rifle, and Bill continued to talk. "Soren Bang did something like this, I remember a 6.5 Krag. We have a couple of the Danish Madsen's too, If I remember."

He unscrewed the gas system at the front "Yeah, this looks like a Steyr's rifle of 1909," He rescrewed it all back down. "How many has he made?"

"Twenty twenty five maybe." Bill took the rifle back, "All built back in Connecticut though, I got to take this back to him."

Of course, but, "See if you can rustle Cole up." Pretty much the entire cadre were proficient at least with a rifle. There was a difference between simple proficiency and expertise. Cole was one of the few people who could match Allen's skill with a rifle.

Bill looked at the rifle, and sighed a little with regret. "Cole ain't goin' like it. He's going to argue that sure in theory its nice you can swap it to being a bolt action, but he's going to argue that that shouldn't be necessary, and complicates the gun." Which was true Sig had produced a rifle for Mexico that had done that sort of thing, being able to function as either a semi automatic or bolt action... and Cole had been unhappy with it. Even though with proper training those had worked fine.

"He might." Allen replied it was certainly possible. "He might complain, but he certainly will complain if he doesn't get to see it sooner rather than later. Actually take it to him, and to Griswold."

"What about Phillips?"

Allen paused, "Yeah, that'd be a good idea, if I knew when he was getting back." He shrugged, "Don't get me wrong I'm sure Phillips will have plenty of feedback but I've yet to hear from him. Cole will be faster to get a report."

"I promised Andy," His nickname for the dapper general, "that you'd shoot it. Peking is supposed to test it. Two more are going to the Peking Arsenal."

"He has been told Yuan is dead right?"

"He knows."

Allen looked at the rifle's fine machining cuts in the receiver. "Qirui will never go for it," He muttered quietly in disappointment, "We need more of,"

Bill blinked, "He's going to bring tooling back, Yuan might be dead but he gave Liu the money for the machine tooling, and its paid for." Which was surprising.

"We need more machinists, and engineers I meant. More semi automatic rifles yes, I wouldn't turn them down, but I'd rather have more men who can make the guns than the guns. The Mauser is fine, and that is exactly what Duan is going to say to justify not spending the money." Because of course the money wasn't there for the Republic of China to spend, "This is a specialists weapon corporals or gunnery sergeants more like."

--
Commentary: ANd that is the conclusion of the prologue which sets up for the autumn of 1916 and conflicts in central China, Shansi and Shensi, as well as loosely the other more western bandit wars in Szechwan that broke out after Tsai O's death from his succumbing to tuberculosis So chapter 1 will start in September of 1916

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1916​

It was neither really humid nor particularly dry. The rain was keeping the dust manageable. Everyone was focused on the coast... and that was fine. But contrary to the thousand odd papers that were read from Canton to Peking and further north even the posturing between the north and south, wasn't the only thing going on. The Beiyang were disorganized without Yuan, even if plenty of them had been less than thrilled with his intention to become emperor.

Those big scope political issues might have made headlines, but there were other issues. Provincial issues that would never make anything more than the local papers if they were lucky. They didn't need any comparisons to the East India Company, and having the brigade shoot it out with a munch of bandits had been one thing when Yuan had been alive, but might prove to be something wholly else now that he was gone.

It was unlikely though that this would make the papers... this was minor enough he probably should have been leaving it to junior officers... but as war was politics' continuation there were bigger things at stack. Shensi, and Shansi shared a land border but the main rail line, that trunk ran through Honan. That meant you had situations like this., where in the down time of the reasons brigands would jump the border and go try and blunder the neighboring province. They'd still things, abduct folks for ransom, so on and so forth, and just generally make a nuisance of themselves. They hadn't tried to rob the railway, but they had tried to steal from one of the coal mines.

John Allen was inclined to take that personally.

They needed to nip this in the bud, now. Failing to do so would mean that come winter there would brigand problems spilling across the border and feuding over other older grievances. It was probably unavoidable to dodge being entangled, but this issue could be dealt with now. Six companies organized as two battalions were converged from the rail hub at Zhengzhou. Not that they were consolidated as a force, but the railway had let him run them along the rail. They were in effect casting a net. The companies eventually delineated in 13 man squads, which while larger than their British equivalent didn't change the fact that the battalions with only three apiece were smaller over all to the British organization.

He was hoping to keep this confined to a local area, where each of the company commanders could establish their CPs, run field lines for phones to the main telegraphs and report back. The theory was that that would allow them to close the encirclement, and then as they had originally planned to do against Sow Gorge in 1913 to push the artillery forward and drop significant volumes of shell into the enemy position.

Allen recognized from the way the weather was that might actually be feasible. The ground was dry, and solid. They could actually offload the guns from rail and maneuver the batteries overland and set them up, but they needed to identify the enemy first, and fix them in place. It would be the first time the red legs had fired their guns in anger since 1914 as the last of Bai Lang's troops had been driven into the hinterlands.

"The machine guns are set up," The old potato diggers were due to be replaced, he considered selling them off, the old Colts had done their job when they'd been knew, but Lewis's guns were something that could be made now. "Are the colts distributed?"

"Yes sir."

They had pushed two to each company Headquarters, to cover each expected company's defensive frontage of about three hundred meters. Of course that was due to other concerns. Each company could have covered twice that if they tried but he wanted the volunteers focused on narrower tasks. "Chang," The man's face bobbed taking a graven expression, "What exactly are our chaplains doing?"

The major, because that was the rank that Chang held, looked cross eyed at the question. "I do not know sir."

It wasn't a trick question. It wasn't intended to trip the man up. "Neither do I, find out." He considered telling Chang what he had in mind, but the buddhist chaplains.... which was predominantly what they were... might have been doing something useful and if they were he didn't necessarily want Chang snatching them from it. The man snapped a parade worth salute turned sharply and marched like a prussian out of the of train office, which towered over the village headman's house that was nearby.

John Allen glanced at the lieutenant operating the telephone, "Anything from Zhengzhou?"

"No sir."

Allen nodded and moved his ruler along the map tracing the lines he'd already made in it with his pencil, and the distances from everything. He clucked his tongue, "Ring them and ask for a report. Then have someone from the office check the telegraph office and find out how busy they've been." This was good campaigning weather... and he couldn't have been the only one to notice that.
--
Fox Platoon was on their far left forming a distant mass of dark troops in the fading daylight that made their stone gray uniforms look nearly black. Each Company had four platoons under it. Each of those had four rifle squads. Thus roughly each battalion massed six hundred rifles to direct at an enemy.

"Chang," He turned to the Battalion's commanding officer, "Are those firecrackers?"

"Yes sir."

Allen shook his head, "Its your decision major." He returned his attention to the farmland sprawled out from his vantage point even as Chang rushed to commit to the attack. It wasn't just firecrackers of course, there were other piles of white smoke from black powder rifles, but the firecrackers were a common tactic used to make noise and distract but also to save ammunition. Conserving ammunition wasn't his concern.

Chang ordered the lieutenant manning the field telephone to command Fox to use their machine guns to cover an advance to contact with the enemy. That would remove Fox's platoons from the company headquarters and mean having to send runners, but Chang had to know that. If he didn't that would be a conversation for after.

Black powder in the hands of a capable rifleman could drop an enemy officer at more than a kilometer, but smokeless powder was an entirely different fuel. So much so that when it had arrived the Europeans had expected massed infantry engagements to volley at one another from twice that... and then of course found that wasn't quite true in practice... and then the British had been surprised to find any man who let a Boer get within half a kilometer was volunteering for his own funeral. All it mattered though was practice, and nurturing that skill.

Ammunition expenditure wasn't a concern here. The men having the chance to actually test themselves against someone who was shooting back would provide far more insight than any cost for ammunition, and be more valuable than any amount of ammunition expended on a rifle course of fire at a gunnery field in camp.

Within about fifteen minutes he heard the first delineations of individual half platoons, two squads, beginning to open fire. There was no indicator of white smoke from Fox's positions. There was still too much light that he couldn't really make out muzzle flashes at this distance, but he could hear the mausers when the potato diggers slackened.

Chang had returned to the map table. "Ask the question." Allen remarked.

"Why are we here?"

"In what sense?"

"They are bandits." That was true. "Not even particularly a large group. The whole gang is less than two hundred men if we're told right," Even if they did claim to be affiliated with a larger provincial brotherhood... or had claimed such to threaten the county magistrate in any event... the jury was still out if they were telling the truth. He had been hoping it was true, that they could clear the whole nest actually, "But they are so few, hardly worth the time."

"Of course its worth the time Major. Soldiering is a perishable skill," Set of skills, "We could have done this one battalion," Or less probably given the bandits real numbers, "And some people will say that this is really just police work." And they kind of need police... if Bill carried on about the Texas rangers much longer he'd probably get his way, "But a unit needs to know how to move in the field. Needs to be able to march, and needs to be prepared to entrench itself after a march even in the dark." Something that the Russians fighting the Japanese in 1904 had been unwilling to. This command could not be permitted to fall into that... not with how the fighting in Europe was reiterating the lessons of the Russians fight with Japan.

They were south of the yellow river. The bandits had crossed it to raid into Shansi as in the west the course of the river served as a natural boundary to the province. They were fighting in the bandits home territory, their home counties. The enemy theoretically have used their superior knowledge of the local terrain to be inventive, just because they hadn't didn't mean it was impossible.

Allen glanced to him, and then in a lower tone where the junior officers wouldn't here, "The Japanese victory against the Russians hinged on two factors. On the Japanese part the decade of training day in and day out, and on the Russian side, Russian complacency and unpreparedness. The Russians were confident that they could win any fight, and any fight that was going to happen would be one they started, and fought on their terms."

... which of course... could also apply to the Qing courts thinking, but he didn't come out and say that.

Chang returned to glance at the map, and the disbursement of the two battalions, "Then are we not lacking in troops?"

Allen considered the conversation regarding Tsai O's troop numbers with Bill two weeks earlier, that leader of the still proudly proclaiming to be independent province of Yuunan, who had significant influence in Szechwan might have as many as fifty thousand troops some of whom were veterans of the forces who had fought under Bai Lang's banner but had been cut off and forced south in 1913 during the failed 'second revolution. "You would be correct." The brigade numbered more troops than Black Jack was using to chase Pancho all over Mexico, but it wasn't enough. "That has already been recognized, but that will be something we will address in the next fiscal year as we take the time to train new recruits."

Their entire conversation was in English. The telephone operators were using English. The written orders and documents were in English. These were western style infantry along anglo american lines of drill, with facets of the German strategic thought. This was the first time Chang had been commanding his battalion in the field instead of just acting as a staff officer or directing from an office filing away reports.

--
Notes: this gets us out of the prologue, but to underscore a number of the early chapters were written with no assumptions made that I'd posted White Wolf Rebellion or that that material had been detailed. in Short there wouldn't be any need to explicitly have read the prequel, which is what it was, because this is based off the cyoa and is the original story.

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1916​

He would need to return to a major city if not actually Tietsin or Peking soon. There was just too much to do regarding the insatiable appetites for men, material and money caused by the war that seemed as if it was going to go on forever.

The village, town, magistrate wasn't happy with the situation. Shan's, commanding 2nd​ Battalion, driver laid angrily on the horn and the ugly iron wagon lurched forward menacingly. The Major riding steerage in the back shouted something over the fuss and hopped off the rear of the Ford with part of his headquarters company.

Shan Chen, or James anglicized, was an old hand having been a part of the Railway Protection Force, and was actually by age older than Allen, being somewhere approaching, or at least nearer to forty than thirty. The Chinese major did not look happy, which was not a good indicator for the magistrate. Shan was shorter than Allen, not really a surprise, and had come from a minor noble family in Zhili who had expected him to take a job with some secretariat or other after writing the eight legged essay, which the major had never successfully mastered before the boxer rebellion had broken out.

Seemed so long ago now, and just because they'd been out here a couple of weeks.

The major probably hadn't had enough troops for the search, and that had meant it had taken longer but from the haranguing that could be made out he must have found the bandits stash. John Allen swung his boots off the railing of the train station, and stood up from the wrought iron bench under the awning. He pulled the sleeve of his shirt back to look at the wrist watch reading not quite a quarter to one, and then pulled the grey sleeve back down.

It was a matter of money. Allen would be willing to bet on that. The institutions, like any, needed funding. Magistrates were supposed to have a certain amount of staff paid for by the government of course, but not enough to actually fully do their job apparently... evne when the provincial or national government actually had the funds to pay for magistrate's staff... and there was no telling when last that had been. So these folks probably didn't see the harm in robbing someone the next province over or ransoming someone else.

Well, except in this case Shan had his Mauser automatic pointed at the magistrate's forehead and the safety off. If the major had intended to shoot the magistrate it would have already happened, given the fact his aide kept glancing to the man in the Ford' turret manning the Maxim up there, Shan was wanting the magistrate to give him an excuse. That left Allen with the quandary of did he tell Shan to put it away, or wait for it to happen on its own. Part of what shaped his decision ultimately was that the hammer on the mauser was down.

"You are a thief, a bandit." Shan hissed.

The magistrate protested this, though not terribly convincingly... which admittedly it was hard to be convincing facing down the barrel for some people even when they were innocent. Some people always looked guilty.

Shan hissed invectives at the man, and his lineage, but didn't take a step forward. No from one of the other Fords a couple of cases were unlimbered and brought out. There was tobacco from one of the farms, which admittedly the cases could have been lawfully acquired. There was nothing to say that they had been purloined.

The magistrate protested that he had gotten that from a local trader... which was probably even on the letter true. Maybe he had gotten the tobacco from a trader. The taels of silver were a bit too much for a county magistrate in a poor community to have. Not impossible but in the sum of money but extremely unlikely that all the coins would have come from mints based in other provinces. A bit more damning, but the real noose was the last box, and the crest and English writing on it.

"Let Shan do it," He muttered stopping the 1st​ battalion major before he stamped up to stand beside second's, as Shan pointed to the markings that established the strongbox's provenance... and declared its contents to be dynamite. The steel case was still securely locked so John Allen had no idea whether or not they had known what had been stolen or if they just assumed that the heavy box was valuable. It was of course, but not easily spent.

... and if Shan was particularly happy to embarrass the magistrate who had passed the old examination system well... that was alright.
--
Allen pushed the finished bowl of lamb soup aside having drained the last of the broth. "We don't have the men for this, and Bill is right that we need some sort of actual police to investigate this sort of thing."

As he would later put into writing, Yuan Shikai's death ultimately had little to bear on the economic transitions effecting China. Even the great war ravaging Europe had only a partial impact. There were people in Honan involved in overseas trade, but there were plenty of others whose traditional livelihoods had been slowly being rubbed out and had been since the end of the 18th​ century as the Qing had dropped further behind the English speaking world in productivity... and that had only exacerbated with the debut of the French and Germans as Industrial nations in the decades after Boney had been thrown down.

Japan while a British ally was not committed to sending millions of troops to French fields to die and thus now must have seemed excellent for pushing the Russians out of the north entirely. If only it were just that. The war though would have to end eventually.

"We will be recruiting new troops in the spring though," Shan declared, "The rail lines to the west will continue to be built."

The Qing railway proposal, and since Yuan had been involved in getting it written, and agreed to as it had continued under him, were like most of those written at the end of the 1800s and the years before their deal had been inked. They'd build, operate, and maintain the rails. They would have the rights to land eminently fifty miles on either side, those same rights entailed standing up what had been the RPF. Siems Carey would have been carried out under a different scheme but it would have meant an influx of political capital to the coffers... and at the time no one had though that a war would have been around the corner and that that would bring in its own windfall.

"1917 will be quite a busy year." He agreed, he could feel that already, "The arsenal has finished up the last of the new production orders." The steel mills would still be feeding off to Japan, and British needs closer to home, which would mean money, and so to would the shipping of foodstuffs to both. "Even without those rifles, exports will increase."

"The mortars."

Simple thing really, simpler and better than the german equivalent but also newer. Stoke's three inch in what was so typical of entrenchment from the old guard had depended on who one knew. "Lloyd George," The minister of munitions, "feels it would be remiss if the Australians and New Zealanders were not armed and trained to the same standard as heartland troops."

"Will we be using it?"

"One more change due in in 1917. Phillip says that they're light artillery and that makes them his bailiwick," Of course Phillip also wanted to set them up in groups of five in the back of a truck and fire them as unit, which was getting a bit ahead of themselves, "depending on the ammunition we may press them down to company level once inventory is built up." That would depend on recruitment in the spring, and then training though, they were simply spread too thin otherwise.


The dining car of the train had electrical lighting. Coal was available. The men who had stolen the dynamite strong box from the mine had probably just assumed well protected meant valuable, but hadn't gotten around to forcing the box. They would have been disappointed... or more dangerous as after they had. The coal fired power plants with their turbines and drivers though had a regular appetite for coal and that meant it was easier to employ coal men all year around. The power plant fed the electricity to the factories, and the mills.

On this matter, Shan had more insight than the younger of the two chinese Majors. Shan Chen had been apart of the railway division dealing with the on loading offloading, rolling stock management, and the whole business of moving goods from production sites, to warehouses, to distribution points even before he'd volunteered for a uniform and a gun. Shan understood those things, had been with the outfit longer, and that was why he'd been leading second battalion here while he had hung around with the first.

He reached down to the table leg and lifted the files up, not that the cadre had finalized the plan in question, but the writing was on the wall... and it was more likely that if not this plan, then one larger expansion a run up would follow not smaller. "There are thirty five hundred troops in the brigade," That discounted the red legs, and so on, it was just the infantry. "The general consensus is to follow what was done in 1913, and to stand a similar recruitment to arms. Rather than establish a second brigade," As they would effectively be doubling in size, "We will be restructuring into a division structure."

"Two brigades would make a division."

"In the German allotment yes," He replied to Shan's foray, "And that was true for the United States in the eighteen hundreds, but we're going to move brigades as separate attachments, Divisions will be constituted from Regiments who will have their own home garrison. That would take time to organize and stand up as well. If we do move to other brigades," They would be firefighters, or possibly specialists, Dawes seemed to think organizing artillery as brigade was the more sensible course, but that would be something for the cadre to hash out. That might take years.

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1916​

There was a distinction developing. Infantrymen and specialists. Infantry privates and the other sorts of jobs that needed doing in a modern army. Lewis's gun and mr stokes's mortar were not the only bit, there were scoped picked rifled, and the self loading rifles, and other things. It had been a development in years... hadn't a century ago rifles just been first stepping from specialist weapons to thus start to supersede the old firelocks? The Railway Protection Force small as it had been in 1911 would have butchered any force from before the war between the states so long as the ammunition held.

The Mauser was a fine rifle, but its days were likely numbered already. The 98 was too long, and a product of Europe's perverse fascination with the bayonet. At the same time though now that they had enough of them, and under Cole's careful tutelage, his corporals, and the future gunnery sergeants would be capable of taking a man at eighteen hundred meters. Those men would be better served with scopes of good glass for their rifles. Germany was at war, so they would have to make their own. A specialist's weapon.

A weapon the previously only the indulgence, due to the expense, of cadre men from their collection. It would be joined by production of others. Browning's patent of 1900, the self loading 35 remington rifle was too useful, and train men had been carrying its shotgun cousin the Auto 5 even before then. There was Winchester's 351 as well. Twenty and thirty dollars each from the catalog, and that had been before the war had greatly reduced supply.

The tools to make them had also become scarcer. Liu had been lucky that Yuan had given him the money to buy from Hartford... it was just a question of making sure that that tooling actually got there. Griswold wanted to try and talk Duan into letting them buy the tooling out and having Edenborn ship the tooling to tietsin so they could put it on a railcar and ship it all to Xian... which was far from the worst idea. There were problems, impediments whatever word one wanted to use, to it. Duan probably wouldn't want the tooling to go to Hankou, even though, yes the tooling there did needed to be upgraded, and the updating of the machinery was needed, but he wasn't going to want the tooling that far south.

What Duan wanted or didn't want wasn't the only issue. Parliament was a god awful mess. In any western country rather than give the dissolved parliament their seats back, new elections would have been held. If the parliament in England was dissolved, new elections were held, and you seated the winners from that one.

Democracy wasn't the point of seating the 1912 winners though, nepotism was. It was just cover for giving influential winners their seats as a measure. It was an interpersonal dynamic contingent on who knew who, or perhaps more accurately which cliques were owed favors. Reinsch complained it was undemocratic, but more than that his complaints were that were the instructions of the state department. It was fine to be undemocratic so long as the country was stable. Instability was less desirable than democracy. Reinsch's letter seemed to have been written in a state of shock. A good example for John Jordan to cite towards the professor's unpreparedness to the nastiness of statecraft's reality.

The stopper went back in, "Is it about the food situation?" JP asked sniffing the whisky.

"No," He shook his head. The drafting of Europe's labor had stripped farmers of their labor, everyone's and that was meaning food shortages. The entente was making it up by shipping what they could in grain, and beef and so on from overseas, but it wasn't enough. Russia was a good example of that two years of war and the agrarian kingdom of the tsars had left only women and the infirm what was worse was that the tsarists need for draft animals and stock had stripped the fields of even more. The harvests were failing, and and it was going to be worse next year, and no amount of grain from Canada or the United States would settle that. The only good that would do would be for the cities, and that would mean foreign currency needed for that, the Russians were already dependent on the British, or Wall street in New York. "Its about Peking. Why what's going on with the food situation?"

"Is mechanization a priority? How important is it."

"I wish I could say yes, the less people we have tied up in farming, the more people can do factory jobs. A tractor, and combine harvester and the rest makes land tilling simpler."

"It does." He shrugged, and tilted slightly but rested the urge to play with the pen in front of him, before reaching for his drink again, "You know why the Chinese built the Great Canal system?" The Cedar in Cedar Forrest asked.

Allen mirrored the gesture and reached for his own glass, "Its a canal. The river is prone to silting up, prone to flooding, and its easier to move goods down a canal than it is overland," He sipped, "especially since railway wasn't invented yet."

"Exactly." JP toasted the summary, "That's right Al. Thats it. Peking wasn't the capital back then either," He started to protest, "No, no John Allen listen this isn't about the French, or the Russians."

"This has nothing to do with Siems-Carey? This has nothing to do with that clusterfuck back in may?" Reinsch had wanted the State Department to tell the Russians to stuff their protest up their ass... not in such coarse language of course, but it had been the first demonstration he was will to say something... but the board had no interest in the legal debacle that would emerge from any political controversy... not when they could just divert south.... which JP had known was going to happen.

JP waved his glass and flipped the paper, "The Qing ratified our bit in 1909, gives us legal rights to build infrastructure"

"Sounds like Siems-Carey."

"Hear me out, we built down, running south from Kalgan for the Qing, and up from Shijiahuang, hell its the original reason we moved the office there." Two hundred fifty miles of track roughly, it had been done by October and well that had been the start. "Now like I said back when the canal was built, Peking wasn't the capital, and the canal was supposed to pay for itself. Transit fees so on that way it could maintain itself."

.... which hadn't exactly worked out. The Chinese had a strong sense of history, and the Grand Canal had been an expansion of older canals, and water way links, or linked, the four corners of the empire. That meant goods, and people could move around... and of course without telegrams and all the modern business the book keeping had been near impossible. "Which is why they don't have the money. Yeah, I'm familiar with the Qing's problem, and the problems that problem caused."

"But we don't. Railway is better. Think about it, think about all the canals operating in the US a century ago, in 1816, railroad changed all that. We still have to build dams, but in moving goods the rail made the canal and the river barge even steam river ships," He waved his hand as if swiping dust away. "and unlike the old canal system, you can't skip paying transit fees for a train hauling goods off."

Allen shrugged, "Fair point." He sipped the scotch, "Small problem though. Peking is the capital now."

"That's not a problem. Not at all, we have a central location, large population, base for workers, and we keep building the western line, we link Taiyuan. That gives us east to west, as well as north, but not too far north. We can stay out of Manchuria. Bypass this whole brouhaha with the Russians and Japanese. Don't go into Honan we don't step on the British, don't go further south than that, what are the French going to do?"

"So why the question about mechanization of farming?"

"Food prices, purchases from the states are starting to inflate. Russians, English, French they're buying food. The Japanese are buying food, the war will end eventually. It has too," JP remarked though it wavered at the last, "We can't buy those tractors from Italy, and the states are possible but they're more expensive now. We don't have the personnel right now to build tractors, and certainly couldn't spare them from other tolling and machine work."

"JP get to the bloody point."

"You remember that paper I wrote that they never graded, before we graduated early. Before we shipped for the Philippines."

"The land grant schools."

"Yeah them."

"We've built schools."

"Yeah, so no one will so much as squint if we build a couple more, not even if we run railways right up to the Great Hall." He shrugged, "To include the courses of military science, and not to exclude those other scientific and classical studies we should strive to teach the branches of learning related to agriculture and the mechanical arts. Paraphrasing."

"Small problem still, is the people to run the school." And then also, "And that you should note that we have two colleges already, and while the Cadre supports one in Xian, any more than that... it'll smack of government. Especially if you go quoting Lincoln."

"Lincoln didn't write it, Morril did, that's why its named after him."

He drained the glass, "I forgot, but the point stands. So where does that leave us?"

"Short on manpower, of course, but Eddy has a solution for that."

"You've talked to Edenborn on this,"

"He says a wars John Allen, or rather that we're going to enter the European war. Not everyone is happy about that." Allen raised his eyebrows, and waved for him to get on with it, "So what he proposes is we draw up contracts of employment, it'll be Irish and Germans mostly," John Paul shrugged, "it'll guarantee employment for the duration of the european war in the margins. Edenborn says that for the legal bits we will want to say five years, possible extension, and if the state department asks well we're making, whatever it is we'll be selling to England or Japan. Edenborn says that lawyers can shape the contract that the teachers are assisting with on the job training or something like that."
--

--
Commentary: This will not actually matter until November of this year, when Lansing tells Reinsch to tell Cao Kun that the US doesn't care what the Russian minister thinks and the US has officially taken the position that the Russians don't have an exclusive sphere of influence... which admittedly in the OTL was too little too late.... especially as Reinsch then decided to double down and poke both Russia and Japan... which Lansing supported despite him actually hold the notion that Japan did have special prerogative (as would to be made clear in Lansing-Ishii), unfortunately this ended up with France and England getting involved and doubling down on their objections. Lansing basically told the French politely to eat a dick, which the old lion's government wasn't thrilled by, and continued to lobby for both recognition of the old status quo, and economic concessions on the US's part related to the perceived common cause of the war. The French claimed that the basis of their sphere was earlier, and lots of waffling that well by that point it was 1917.

These economic transitions are an important, and recurring factor in this entire timeline. To that extent September 1916 really does set up or establish the financial ground that makes what will become the Xian government capable of financing itself in later years as it talks about and covers some of the economic developments both before the war when there was a mostly unified legitimate chinese government going back to the Qing, as well as the profits made from the wars demands for goods. This will be touched on in part 2, covering late september, and October's part 1 and indeed the other part is that conflict at the present is largely confined to the dissolution of civil authority in Szechwan, and spreading in Yunan and Honan at this point. There some issues in Canton and some of the eastern provinces, but they're not immediately relevant. Most of Arc 1's 'martial matters' are the conflicts in Honan spilling into Shansi, and Shensi and internal county level disputes in the west prior to politics in Peking culminating in the aborted Manchu restoration of July.

 

[Imperator Pax]

September 1916
Part 2​

He'd spent the morning dealing with the steel side of the business, and the large forgings pressed out by the presses built in answer to the Entente's voracious steel appetite. The trip had meant only getting in after Bill and John Paul had started, "The Green Gang," Bill questioned, "Those are those assholes Scabby is always scrapping with, what's a bunch of Shanghai gangsters got to do with the canal?"

"Cause they weren't always big city gangsters." and because they weren't just limited to Shanghai. The explanation rambled into a history of the canal, and its eventual ridiculous system of hereditary boatmen, inevitable government corruption... and so forth.

Bill whistled and reached for the whisky. "Alright the green gang, which just underscores that we need actual police. Look, my daddy will be the first tell you one riot one ranger is blustering nonsense, and you always want as many men as you can put quick," He glanced to Allen who shrugged for him to keep on, "but we're going to need to start somewhere, and if they're rangers or some sort of constabulary but we have to do something."

"JP wants a series of schools, I guess one of them will have to teach military politce officers. Two hundred men?"

"What would that come out to?"

"Three companies roughly," Military Police were never the size of stand up riflemen so it would work, "we could call it a battalion."

JP nodded, "If it needs a fancier name, we can use gendarmes."

The last two years had changed the cadre. Oh theoretically it was still supposed to be one vote per member, but the exit of so many stock holding members and consolidating of stock had changed things... and in some ways that had made voting simpler. The idea of 'Gendarmes' being something they could just hash most of the details out before bringing it into committee would have been unheard of just two years earlier. They'd probably still have to talk some people around, but there was already an acceptance to raising mroe troops. "So the Green Gang?"

"Its a pretty simple racket provincial gangs steal from neighboring provinces and smuggle tobacco for example that then gets sold off to make counterfeit cigarettes." That did explain the case of tobacco, "its not just that. The trade goes both ways, they bring guns in from Canada for example we know that, they probably facilitated some of Bai Lang's shipping for a nominal fee." If the canal system had been in better shape then they'd have been able to reach further, but it did make some explanation to the maneuvering Bai Lang had made in the autumn of 1913.

The conversation twisted itself up into knots about what to do with that bit of trivia. Bai Lang had been dead two years, whatever surviving organized part of his host was only as close as Szechwan and more likely in Yuunan. With the war on, Canadian arms were scarce and while it wasn't impossible that thieved weapons could still come in, there were other matters now. They could tell the municipal police force in the international quarter, but that assumed that they didn't know.

and in truth... he should have, would have probably had a better chance of knowing if not for everything else related to the European War and all the business it generated that Bill had no interest in waiting for 1917 to start trying to put his Rangers together... but his impediment had been finding experts and men willing to build something like what had been built in the Philippines, and that would end up shaping the body when it was finally approved after the fact really.
--
The train ride east hadn't been an issue. No one so much batted an eye the uniformed men. People were used to it now, and Allen supposed it was probably the same in Europe.

Hunan was starting to split at the seams, and the bandits coming over the border would only intensify, which would only worsen conditions in Shansi and Shensi... provinces that Duan was unlikely to give two shits about. Duan didn't have the money for that, and even if he had his focuses were on the eastern, the coast of Zhili and looking directly south. While Duan appreciated the Ma family's verbal support, and any taxes was better than none, it was a pittance against the arrears peking managed to spend.

Cao Kun on the other hand, well even aside his post as minister of railways and communications, had more personal reasons to support Siems-Carey and anything like it. "Your minister Reinsch is greatly in favor it." He remarked sipping his champagne, "And with all the bandit problems it would make things easier."

This whole mess reeked of nepotism. Cao Kun was alright, Allen didn't dislike the man, "I'd prefer it in ink. Verbal agreements make the Europeans ornery."

"Written agreements they don't like make them worse."

"Yeah, but if its written I can send Lansing a copy." Cao Kun nodded at this, and refilled his probably fifth glass of champagne, and the implicit comment that the secretary would interdict attempts to fuss... that and, "What about the Ma's?"

"They don't do railways," he shook his head dismissively. "If they run regularly then that's enough, but if you could take Hongkui on," One of Cao Kun cousins, or inlaws, "He's going back to fight bandits, he could use the help."

"Kansu?"

"Technically yes, but bandits like dogs don't much care for lines drawn on maps."

All too true, "How are talks going for the southern line?


He sighed, "Duan," Who'd been prime minister coming up on three months now, "doesn't want to issue gold bonds. He'd rather just go back to the old way of doing it."

"Any particular reason why?"

"Parliament. It would be easier to just follow what's worked, but the Europeans talk about their old agreements and then say they don't have the capital." Duan wanted to follow Yuan's policies of supporting the entente, go further and send troops overseas if the talking was to be believed, and that chatter was getting louder. "So we're just supposed to linger and do nothing."

"I can build the western railways." He stated, "But the southern line is out of the question. Hunan is coming part at the seams as it is. IF the province breaks out into full warfare it'll be messy." That and there was no appetite to building railways through hunan after the debacle that would eventually lead into the October 1911 debacle. "I've told the old man that if conditions hold we can run a rail line all the way to urumqi."

"A thousand miles," Cao Kun declared, "Can you really go that far west?"

"As conditions hold. Year after next, really probably 1919 before its commercial, and that's discounting rolling stock and engines needed for regular travel." There were reasons to go that far west, but nothing to the sheer value of Xian. Xian's population and unlike Hankou or Peking, made it an excellent foundation for sustaining industry. They wouldn't have to share the city with anyone, there were no other concessions there, and they even had the appreciation of the neighbors, which was always nice. "If Hongkui can handle bandit suppression then the engineers can oversee construction," He settled for the last word than talking about berms and bridges and the rest that would be need, and just omitted any overt mention of dynamite. The conversation drifted to the salt tax, and other matters. On paper Duan's War Participation Army, had to love the names the bureaucracy came up with things, sounded theoretically like General Wood's preparedness campaign... but the differences in political structure made them wildly different. There was no way parliament would approve the money needed for which would have to come from somewhere.

It seemed unlikely that the US would approve loans directly, but might indirectly through the circuitous pathways money had begun to disperse... often going from New York financiers, to London ones then dispersed to others only to then be used to purchase goods elsewhere than the final state. US loans money to England, England loans money to Japan, Japan loans money to China? It seemed a stretch, but Allen had no idea whether John Jordan would support Duan, where he almost certainly would have supported Yuan if he had attempted it.

"I don't doubt, Duan can recruit two hundred thousand me."

Cao Kun nodded, "He could, certainly, but as you've surmised there is the matter of arming them, clothing them, providing for them." Men if you were desperate were cheap, for centuries, thousands of years the life blood of any army had been levees of peasants to swell the ranks. Money, it always came down to money.

The European war was a meat grinder of soldiers' lives. The Gallipoli mess had killed almost a hundred ninety thousand men in Imperial (British Empire) losses according to what they'd been told... and it had been a dismal failure. There was no telling how many Turkish boys had died in the defense either, probably at least as many.

Cao Kun departed a quarter past three, but his departure allowed the elder Forrest to step past Captain Deng and shut the door leaving the captain looking flustered. "What do you charge the brits for pig iron?"

Allen scratched his brow, "I think its fixed at fifty dollars," They weren't under cutting anyone just splitting the difference for the year, the British needed raw materials. It was no secret. It was also no secret that European demand for steel was in no way going to decline. Not with the war still going, and Carnegie able to produce more steel than the Central powers could all combined. "We know it 'll go up next year, market demand is high."

He got a look thrown over as the stopper opened on the bourbon, "Lansing had a charming conversation with the French. Who want us to affix price controls to the steel industry. Others, for the public interest." He turned with three fingers poured, "Don't scoff, we'll be in the war next year, for sure if the Republicans win, if it happens Wilson plans to ask Lansing to step down so he can appoint the president elect to the job, and then he and the vice president will both call it quits."

Allen blinked, "You're kidding."

"I am not, even if the republicans don't win Wilson has taken too many steps for us not to get involved. Lansing will get his way, and has boxed the president in, especially with Wilson too preoccupied with General Wood." The glass sat down, "Which of course is why, well Edenborn has been adamant that the war is a European affair, should remain a European affair and that Germany is no threat to the United States." Which was not the sort of thing to make one popular with New York's elite...

"He's not wrong. Edward Gray's panicking in 1914 should have gotten him thrown into an asylum for hysteria," His response was to cover the pit opening up in his stomach. The old man read the mail. He read probably everyone's mail, and if not the actual mail then certainly all the cables, and had the phone lines tapped, which JP should have known.

"Duan Qirui wants to join the war, and I expect from the conversations he's had with the professor," Reinsch, "that that will be doubled down on when we enter. There are expectations about what will come out."

"I'm aware about the war participation army, in fact I just had a conversation about it."

"Cao Kun, I'm not surprised. Kitchin is in talks with Edenborn, they expect there will be a draft and that they can shepherd some poor little lambs over here for the conflict."

"Do you know what happened in July of 1914?" He asked his father, "Pretty much every, or at least much of the socialists of Europe abruptly forgot all about the peace pacts and rallied for war."

"They have souls after all," The old man snorted, sipped from the crystal smacked his lips in approval, and then asked "What's your point?"

"Edenborn's proposal does let them get out of the queue, they'll be out of the country and the war can't last more than another couple years. The end of the decade. They'll be harmless and out of the way, and they'll be useful when the US comes in because they'll be over here in jobs that will contribute to selling to the Europeans."

"That's optimistic."

"Lansing doesn't want a spectacle with the socialists, anyone out of the country won't get drafted or he'll permit exemptions and waivers."

He had expected a laugh, or a snort, but it never came, "And how can you know that?"

"Because the British have already exempted," For all intents and purposes, "the Irish from compulsory military service. There is no conscription in Ireland."

"Then you had best have all your ducks in a row, if you mean to have Lansing as fait accompli, and best you not forget they could always recall you to active duty." Reactivation of his commission seemed unlikely, and would almost certainly entail an expansion of the armed services that would require a promotion two or three grades to warrant pulling him out of his comfortable civilian industrial position.

"Do you know something?" He asked, fishing, Obviously Fishing.

"Not today. I'll tell you about it soon... but not today son."
--
Notes: The US Selective Service Act was presented to Wilson officially in December of 1916, but had it origins probably as early as 1914 or even 1911 in its most basic forms. (Mexico's revolutionary actions and the prospect of a second mexican american war was a very real concern in this period.) As it happens though, the US exempted teachers from first round of draft service and so by and large the SSA didn't send any of them over there, unless they volunteered.

France's complaints about the expense of ww1 actually started in1914, though that was initially, largely confined to complaining about the British, (By 1916 they finally achieved a common pricing arrangement with the English over coal) but quickly turned to complaining about the US practices. This would eventually culminate in Wilson voluntarily pausing the loans interest payments France had taken out in the war, this was unpopular but frankly the Franc was subject to devaluation and inflation was rampant, and highlighted a number of other problems in the pre war french economy and its undeveloped banking system.

 

[Imperator Pax]

October 1916​

Stacked on his desk was a mass of receipts, and production filings.

Fifty dollars per gross ton of Pig Iron was about forty percent profits. They had fixed it at an even number, for bulk, but it underlined just how much England was consuming that demand was as high as it was. Before the war England probably would have blanched at paying in dollars, but that was less the case from last year on. Prices were growing high, and England's war industry had been looking for other avenues to keep the agreement. Promising other contracts, and hoping for other abilities to contend with a fully integrated firm, the term Reinsch had used to describe them was the American 'Class I' or 'fully integrated', in this case in the metallurgical trade, steel and iron manufacturing where they did everything from coal and ore, to the mills turning out the finished steel. Britain's demand wasn't just for pig iron. Steel per ton was nearly double the value of pig iron after all.

They were large bulky products churned by industrial processes and Britain handled all the transportation responsibilities once they hit the port. There were no export duties, or tariffs they went aboard a British flagged ship and then to India, Australia, wherever. "God in heaven John Allen." Percival Graves declared, "I leave you for two years, and you do this." He paused clearly, "Its like Chicago."

"Really? It kind of reminds me of Birmingham," Allen paused, "Ours not yours," He clarified.

"Enough guns to be Birmingham." Percy remarked, speaking of England's. "Still have those Five Nines do you, saw enough of their work over there." Percy was in the uniform, but truthfully Allen hadn't asked, and didn't intend to ask what it was Percy had been recalled to do for King and Country in Europe... though it had involved something in Switzerland, or at least trips to Lucerne and Geneva. "What do you have here?"

"Third Battalion rotated here with me. Battery C has been stationed here since 1914." Since they'd defended the city from Bai's charge. There had been worry about a riot if they tried to relocate the guns to another posting, "Dawes wants to produce more of them."

"Will you let him?"

"Next year, year after probably." He replied. "Given all the trouble we're hiring." That and, Duan Qirui was a red leg, and if anything held normal, he'd be looking at probably another fight down south before too long.

"John Jordan laments Yuan Shikai's passing of course," The Englishman placed an insincere hand over his heart, "China would very much like to join the entente cordial," He shook his head, and paced towards the window, "So far its just the labor corps the money for this war participation army just isn't there." Percy was watching the posted sentries down below.

He answered the question before Percy could ask, "They're our production version of the Mausers. Lloyd George said something about a new pattern Rifle."

"The Mark 1 Star, are you going to be able tool to produce them?"

"If they finalize a design, we could."

"Probably means," Lloyd George, "to have you build them for ANZAC, or South Africa."

The contract would be a nice bonus. "His Majesty's government doesn't want us making guns for the professional British Army?" He joked.

"Its not like that at all, just that. It would be less trouble to ship anything you make do Australia or Africa... and Australia can't make her own rifles anyway." IT was odd that Australia differed from Canada in that respect. Australia had no major powder factory capable of meeting war time needs. "Three hundred thousand rifles total, 303 inche, thirty two dollars a rifle."

He hadn't actually known Percy was coming with the plan to drop that kind of information, but he schooled his expression. "What's the catch?" More than that possibility, this underscored the concerns about Liu bringing new tooling into the country, buying that off him, or Duan just ratcheted up in terms of importance.

"Production of, second line and reserve weapons guards, postmen so forth has been successful. Given the number of rifles needed at the front, anyone with the tooling and the experience making arms is being considered. Now that you've finished those orders this is what's next. The step up, in all honesty, if this comes off, it'll be Lewis's gun next. Lloyd George is very serious that all Imperial Troops should be treated equally."

Allen frowned, "Thirty two dollars for a rifle is nice, Percy." Even accounting for tooling up, and so on, and dealing with the British's obsession with their frankly antiquated rimmed dwarf. "Producing a 303 Lewis, would entail issues. I'm telling you up front that there could be machining issues, teething going to a rimmed cartridge."

"That'd be just a delay, you'd get it. Your chum Isaac insured BSA could do it, and surely that deal you did with the Belgians means you know what to do."

"We would get there, yes. Just that a bolt gun is a different, more mature animal than a machine gun." He spread his hands out, "I just want you to know that. Now since you have brought up FN, and our deal, I would recommend that if the minister of munitions," Wonderfully alliterative, "brings it up, that of pistols."

"There will be an issue in chambering in 455?"

"Just the tooling change over, but it would cheaper to not change, and just 45 caliber government. Automatic Colt Pistol are already being made and I know that you've purchased guns from colt in both calibers. We could do either, but expediency and prince favors one rather clearly." That, and technically speaking they had been manufacturing 1911s at the arsenal before 1914 just not in anything other than hand built small batch orders for officers."

"I do appreciate that candor, John Allen. His Majesty's government appreciates it."
--
You only really noticed the quality of a rifle's accuracy past three hundred yards, and that was if you knew what you were looking for. It was the way the rifle opened up, and that meant you had to be used to shooting at the range, and of course there were factors besides the rifle itself. Ammunition effected a rifle. British barrels, the steel they were made out of, disliked smokeless fast burning powders. Hence cordite, which Dawes, and Phillips both informed him separately was better for 'small' caliber artillery.

The Five Nines didn't use cordite.

Ma Anliang was visitng the city and watched the guns' results as they hit the artillery range's targets with the glee that Percy clearly didn't share. Even though Bai Lang had died to a rifle shot, that had penetrated just under his eye and blown out the back of his skull, most of his bandits killed during that little war had been cut down by artillery. Much like most of the people in the European war were dying from the work of artillerymen.

Old Ma, nodded to the younger Ma officer from one of the province of Gansu's Brigades. The younger Ma was portly and glasses and had been made a division commander ... well within two years of graduating from his local military academy. The sixty year old Ma was skinny, and bald up top but had finally put a grey uniform on instead of the old Hui braves black version... now if only the pony tail general would do the same for the rest of his wu wei corp. Allen supposed that it really didn't matter.

"These are new barrels?"

"Yes, these were bored out here." He made a wave towards one of the smokestacks in the distance... Xian's population base would support industry far better than any of the smaller towns... regardless of what Percy thought about eight hour factory shifts. "This will be the first step to building new ones next year. Once the breechs and carriages are up to quality we'll be in a position to manufacture entirely new pieces here."

Ma Anliang nodded contemplatively stroking his wispy beard.

"What about the mortars?"

He wondered if Percy had heard that Yan Xishan had expressed an interest to Powell about the pieces at the latters trip to the Shansi Machine Bureau. Mortars weren't really a new weapon, but their latest innovation made them much more handy for infantry. "Not at this range percy, we fire them off at the infantry berm."

"are you quite serious?"

"its the ammunition." As Griswold was quick to point out, "It needs better ammunition. I understand it was a field expedient solution," But if he had to hear the red legs complain about eight hundred yards being spitting distance one more time, "suffice to say we can go there next." Which was what they did. As part of measures to make furnishing rifles to the brigade they had made certain revisions to the Mausers taking cues from both the US's lessons as well as making the decision to pay attention to the Brits, among others. The greatest example of the first and last coming together was the new two piece butt stock and a stronger pistol grip. There had been talk of more pronounced checkering but that had been forgone just to save time.

The riflemen from Company A of the third were not pushing to the thousand yard mark, even though the two hundred grain mauser would do it, and go further still. When they were finished they stuck around to watch the mortar specialists set up oogling the new piece of equipment.