Esquestria: The House of the Sun - A pony cultist experience

[Lorrie]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.
[X] Open it.

 

[Greymere]

Ok, doing simulations, with some fuzziness I think it's about a:

10% chance of death
10% chance of 2 wounds
20% chance of 1 wound
60% chance of total victory

And that's without Wrong Keys. I assume Velvet will start blasting once she takes a wound or two. so 60% chance of flawless victory and some mix of 1 or 2 wounds for the rest with a 2%ish chance for death-by-2-wounds-in-a-round-via-crits.

Scary, but this is 400 bits worth of reputation by revealed preference in the spread between +rep and -rep from opening to banishing. Well worth the risk.

Click to shrink...

It's probably also worth noting that Velvet's not necessarily going to be the first and/or only one taking wounds. There's six other people involved in this fight after all, and Velvet can probably back off a bit and let the constables do some "tanking" if she starts taking Wounds.

Actually, do these simulations take into account the six other people also making attack rolls against the Windigo, or is this assuming Velvet and the Windigo are the only ones making combat rolls?

 

[Sveta08]

It's probably also worth noting that Velvet's not necessarily going to be the first and/or only one taking wounds. There's six other people involved in this fight after all, and Velvet can probably back off a bit and let the constables do some "tanking" if she starts taking Wounds.

Actually, do these simulations take into account the six other people also making attack rolls against the Windigo, or is this assuming Velvet and the Windigo are the only ones making combat rolls?

Click to shrink...

I believe for multi combat rolls, the additional combatants provide a bonus to the combat roll.

You got the right of it on the second vote (Edit: ) post. Windigo will have a -30 due to facing seven enemies.

Click to shrink...

Relevant info.


Edit: I also wanted to draw attention to something. It isn't going to change things, but something to be aware of before it happens.

Each option will have additional effects, and the "pros and cons" are just a quick summary of what you can expect to gain and risk from each option. Still, they are not a final and total list of what each option entails, so keep that in mind.

Click to shrink...

Namely, when the jar is opened, if we do succeed... The Bureau will see Velvet a little bit. A mare of moderate build and stance... as the most dangerous mare they've met. More than any one of them. In combat against a beast of myth.

Reputation will grow, yes. But just like Reproach is uncertain what sort of mare she is, there may be questions.

 

[Greymere]

I believe for multi combat rolls, the additional combatants provide a bonus to the combat roll.

Relevant info

Click to shrink...

That's the penalty on the outnumbered combatant. But each combatant in the group still makes their own attack rolls, sharing an overflow value, see here (again from Twilight expedition):

[Guards in this group? (1d3+1 = 4)]

[Daughter-of-Axes' current health: 5/5]

[Guard-1's health: 3/3]

[Multi-combatant fight. Axe will only "compete" to wound the nearest guard, but may be wounded by all other guards]

[Current overflow (damage occurs on 50): Axe – 0, Guards' – 0]



[Axe's first roll: 79 + 45 (Personal Combat) – 15 (outnumbered: 3) = 109]

[Guard-1's first roll: 90 + 16 (Personal Combat) = 109]

[Guard-2's first roll: 96 + 13 (Personal Combat) = 109]

[Guard-3's first roll: 29 + 12 (Personal Combat) = 4]

[Guard-4's first roll: 10 + 12 (Personal Combat) = 22]



[Overflow: Axe – 0, Guards' – 0]



[Axe's second roll: 86 + 45 (Personal Combat) – 15 (outnumbered: 3) = 115]

[Guard-1's second roll: 4 + 16 (Personal Combat) = 20]

[Guard-2's second roll: 65 + 13 (Personal Combat) = 78]

[Guard-3's second roll: 14 + 12 (Personal Combat) = 26]

[Guard-4's second roll: 77 + 12 (Personal Combat) = 89]



[Overflow: Axe – 95, Guards' – 0]

[Guard-1 suffers one wound (-50 to Axe's overflow)]

Click to shrink...

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

We just tried to get a canary and failed pretty abjectly. Midday Dew is not a contact and he's not going to be. All we have access to is delaying his progress. Also it's exceedingly, exceedingly, exceedingly unlikely Midday dies to Ash. His progress will just be rendered much much slower by the need to heal the Wounds and Dreads he ends up picking up before progressing further. If he does Mansus Exploration actions while still rocking maluses, that's frankly his own fault

Click to shrink...

I think that our QM's options are usually fairly accurate descriptors of what will happen. If you want Dew to die, vote for Dew to die. If you want him to live, vote for a different option. I for one am not going to consign a pony to death just for unknowingly risking us, especially since it will probably only slow Eclipse a little. The Watchpony's Glass isn't going to suddenly get weaker from Dew's death, after all.

Maybe Celestia will find Ash and they will have epic match between themselves. I don't see major downsides there.

Click to shrink...

I do. I see a lot of potential major downsides. Like Celestia dying. Or going Daybreaker to win. Or going Daybreaker and agreeing with Ash that the world really ought to burn. Or Ash dying and the Mansus getting massively damaged again. Or Ash outing us during the fighting to psychologically torment Celestia with the truth of our betraya. There are really no good outcomes.

 

[Shaper47]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.
[X] Open it.

 

[Nevermort]

I do. I see a lot of potential major downsides. Like Celestia dying. Or going Daybreaker to win. Or going Daybreaker and agreeing with Ash that the world really ought to burn. Or Ash dying and the Mansus getting massively damaged again. Or Ash outing us during the fighting to psychologically torment Celestia with the truth of our betraya. There are really no good outcomes.

Click to shrink...

Don't be silly. Psychological torment is not how Ash operates. Had it even spoke to us?
And Celestia need to be dealt with regardless. Or you prefer to fight her in the middle of Canterlot during all-in expedition? Her and Luna no holds barred fighting will burn capital to the ground. Maybe not the absolute certainty, but too likely to risk it. If she ever gets tired or injured fighting Ash it would be perfect. In the unlikely case she dies sad but still better than losing Canterlot.

 

[ses]

I think that our QM's options are usually fairly accurate descriptors of what will happen. If you want Dew to die, vote for Dew to die. If you want him to live, vote for a different option. I for one am not going to consign a pony to death just for unknowingly risking us, especially since it will probably only slow Eclipse a little. The Watchpony's Glass isn't going to suddenly get weaker from Dew's death, after all.

Click to shrink...

The option doesn't say Midday will die. It just sets Ash on him, same as if we had spent an action on doing so. The overwhelmingly likely outcome is that Midday's progress is slowed, as some of his mansus actions get replaced with heal actions.

Namely, when the jar is opened, if we do succeed... The Bureau will see Velvet a little bit. A mare of moderate build and stance... as the most dangerous mare they've met. More than any one of them. In combat against a beast of myth.

Click to shrink...

This is not out of the ordinary for MLP canon. We're throwing around similar numbers as Shining Armor, but like, Fluttershy intimidated a full size dragon in canon.

It's probably also worth noting that Velvet's not necessarily going to be the first and/or only one taking wounds. There's six other people involved in this fight after all, and Velvet can probably back off a bit and let the constables do some "tanking" if she starts taking Wounds.

Click to shrink...

I considered it unlikely that the windigo would choose to target a guard first, as it essentially removes all risk from the fight.

Actually, do these simulations take into account the six other people also making attack rolls against the Windigo, or is this assuming Velvet and the Windigo are the only ones making combat rolls?

Click to shrink...

Yes, assumed +12 on all of them and I rounded off the results

 

[Sveta08]

This is not out of the ordinary for MLP canon. We're throwing around similar numbers as Shining Armor, but like, Fluttershy intimidated a full size dragon in canon.

Click to shrink...

You're right. The Captain of the Royal Guard is our equivalent when unprepared, as well as (in canon) a nascent Element of harmony.

It's not out of the ordinary for it to happen. But Velvet? Who the Bureau has seen gush on her family, seen her be Resolved in a way no others were, to guide the hand of the hunt for Luna?
Bridesmaid of Cadence herself? Trusted by Celestia? A detective without equal from what they've seen? That she is combat capable as their very best?

Everyone already has the question of "Who is she? Where did they come from?"
This is... It's repeating that.

 

[Talon Tiger Dino]

Don't be silly. Psychological torment is not how Ash operates. Had it even spoke to us?
And Celestia need to be dealt with regardless. Or you prefer to fight her in the middle of Canterlot during all-in expedition? Her and Luna no holds barred fighting will burn capital to the ground. Maybe not the absolute certainty, but too likely to risk it. If she ever gets tired or injured fighting Ash it would be perfect. In the unlikely case she dies sad but still better than losing Canterlot.

Click to shrink...

He gleefully led Velvet to Starry's eternally suffering corpse, gnawed and burnt. Though I guess you are right in that he didn't use words at any point.

The option doesn't say Midday will die. It just sets Ash on him, same as if we had spent an action on doing so. The overwhelmingly likely outcome is that Midday's progress is slowed, as some of his mansus actions get replaced with heal actions.

Click to shrink...

"The next time he steps upon the ashes will be his last," is a promise of death, not injury. You can recover from injury and step upon the ashes again, so it wouldn't be his last if this was simply voting to injure.

 

[EigengrauFox]

[X] You gave him a warning.
"You are known to be trustworthy. So, even if he thinks you are a laypony, any discouragement coming from you ought to carry some weight. You think. You hope."
[X] Open it.
-Velvet Covers and a team of 6 (six) Lunar Bureau Constables will fight against a Windigo. You will first move the jar to a safer place, and make preparations to ensure the creature cannot easily escape during combat, and that it will have no choice but fight to the death.
-Pros: Success will greatly improve your standing with the Lunar Bureau, and will deal with this issue.
-Cons: Combat is always dangerous.

 

[DelightedOne]

The Captain of the Royal Guard is our equivalent when unprepared, as well as (in canon) a nascent Element of harmony.

Click to shrink...

Say what now?

The Elements are just the Mane 6, Shining is the lucky stallion that managed to become the first prince in equestrian history by marrying the Alicorn of Love.

 

[Sveta08]

Say what now?

The Elements are just the Mane 6, Shining is the lucky stallion that managed to become the first prince in equestrian history by marrying the Alicorn of Love.

Click to shrink...

I... Am I just bad at making a point? Am I saying wildly crazy things?
This... I'm talking about combat? In conflict?

Shining Armor is a Hero? Statline and all. Velvet matches or exceeds him in terms of conflict, before getting into combat influences and attentions.

Fluttershy, in this warped apples to oranges comparison, was an Element of harmony, known somewhat as a national hero for the rescuing of Luna. Somewhat early in the career I admit, but her talking down a dragon was very much an abnormal thing that, while canon literally supported, it came from an exceptional source.


All of this to say, yeah? The kinda reclusive noblemare that apparently moonlit as a preeminent detective also turning out to be as combat capable as the captain of the Royal Guard may be a bit of a shock? The the Bureau might have questions and not really know who she is, because, good lord?


I feel that's not too big of a reach. Am I making sense?

 

[Biowolf]

[X] You gave him a warning.

[X] Open it.

In what way? They are doing what we told them to do.

Click to shrink...

We gave the Master to the wolves to kill them. Instead they just turn them into a Wendigo and force us to deal with the Master later.
Also they burned they are assholes.

 

[ses]

We gave the Master to the wolves to kill them. Instead they just turn them into a Wendigo and force us to deal with the Master later.
Also they burned they are assholes.

Click to shrink...

The master is dead and the windigo doesn't know anything about the Master, it just hit us with Inflict Fear and we hallucinated the Master for a second. Everyone who came near it got hit with a personalized psychological trauma stick.

 

[Maer]

[X] You gave him your blessings.


[X] You gave him some advice.


[X] You gave him nothing.

[X] You gave him a warning.

I'm fine with any of these. We(The Bureau) are going to know about the Lores soon enough, and then he'll want to collaborate because it'll be too late to protect us at that point. The only protection will be knowledge and preparation. And then our rapid rise will be relatively easy to notice and explain to Celestia. :3

[X] Open it.

 

[Zxzx24]

[X] You gave him a warning.

[X] You gave him your blessings.


[X] You gave him some advice.


[X] You gave him nothing.

[X] Open it.

 

[Rafuki22]

We gave the Master to the wolves to kill them. Instead they just turn them into a Wendigo and force us to deal with the Master later.

Click to shrink...

It was a mental attack by the Windigo.

Also they burned they are assholes.

Click to shrink...

They burned who? Not that it matters because Velvet, and by association us, are the ones who burned The Woods and everything in it.

 

[MisRAR1]

[x] You gave him a warning.

[x] Open it.

 

[poyac]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

 

[poyac]

I... Am I just bad at making a point? Am I saying wildly crazy things?
This... I'm talking about combat? In conflict?

Shining Armor is a Hero? Statline and all. Velvet matches or exceeds him in terms of conflict, before getting into combat influences and attentions.

Fluttershy, in this warped apples to oranges comparison, was an Element of harmony, known somewhat as a national hero for the rescuing of Luna. Somewhat early in the career I admit, but her talking down a dragon was very much an abnormal thing that, while canon literally supported, it came from an exceptional source.


All of this to say, yeah? The kinda reclusive noblemare that apparently moonlit as a preeminent detective also turning out to be as combat capable as the captain of the Royal Guard may be a bit of a shock? The the Bureau might have questions and not really know who she is, because, good lord?


I feel that's not too big of a reach. Am I making sense?

Click to shrink...

Let's see. I think people are overcomplicating the choice. We can avoid the problem and let the wendigo get into the wrong hands. We can draw positive suspicion by openly attacking it. Or very negative suspicion by magically getting rid of it while no ones around. The least bad choice is obviously opening the jar.

 

[dcoconeo]

[X] You gave him a warning.

 

[Not_here]

[X] You gave him a warning.
[X] Open it.

 

[Sveta08]

Red Winds Sing

---

It is a long winded sigh that brought you back.
The low, heavy sigh. Fullness of breath, deep in the chest when nothing else would do. Like the air was being driven out of the lungs more than just a sigh. Crushed.

Familiar, common even.

But such a sweet sound.
Longing.



He is not much to look at, but eyes are always deceitful. Thin in frame, but neither lean nor fatty in any right shape. Not with the muscle to make him worth attention, nor the build of something to be made from him. Too full of his own horn to keep track of the rest, just like most now.

But, eyes are always deceitful. Too quick to pass over things. Too blind to pick up on the better things. Rich and hungry yes, but hardly given to more than sampling. And so picky.

Laughter would not become it, but there is a smile as he sighs.
Not his smile.
Yours.



"Lord, she said it would be for a week at least. Come in from the balcony before you catch your death out there."
Warmer. Not the same warmth as his sigh, but the voice. Richer in tone. Heavier in body, with more depth. A broadness. Confidence one might even say. Or perhaps, experience even.

The chocolaty coat of Cantrip the maid. So gentle and kindly to her greater. Lesser. Better. Authority.
A troubled pair to be sure. Nothing between them save respect and position. Not in the ways it's been seen, no. But... in a gentler, easier way. Velvety even.
Never meant for this kind of world, either one. Too heavy in the heart to be who they were built to be. Too sharp in the mind to be what was wanted. A tragedy that never was.
Only a kindly, gentleness to savor instead.

"At least, Cantrip. At least a week she said. Not only, at least."
But what was here, was more than what wasn't. A prince in a tower, pining for a princess long gone. Or, long forlong this time.
Pride, pity the name, all but collapsed at the balcony edge. Hooves held in shambles as his eyes rose, almost pleadingly to the sky.

Beg the sun, the stars, the moon themselves. But she's not under those skies little one.



He had been like this ever since word came back. One of his servants trying to seek a meeting by proxy for him. A meal, a happenchance encounter. A word and a smile and a vain hope to see her face. That maybe the silver thread of a smile might be turned his way.
Word that she was to be unavailable. Velvet herself gone, and ever so Precious Ax to be.... indisposed.

Cruel fates. Neither kind nor just.
Had she been willing and helpful? Had she rendered unto their summoner aid?
Permitted a room, treated as family, and held not at arms length. But embraced. Welcomed. Joined united in purpose and aim.
With not but venom and scorn in her breath.

A Mother tends to the Wounded.
Not a rule or a law, but something near enough.
Cruel fate. Nothing more.



It was an attempt to be dignified. To save face, that Pride rose. Bottling up his emotions, letting them stew and grow richer all the while. When he returned from the balcony, back to his desk and to his work. Papers that held none of his mind but all of his hooves.
The sighs that slipped his lips carried along like the notes of the finest vintage.

... not quite the finest.
But enough to savor. To slack the thirst, if only in temptation.

A beautiful pair of opera glasses taken away. Eyeless sockets beneath as your gaze turned back to the house.
The house.
The house.

---

Three days.
How long a day now that it was undivided. How it struggled to partition. Not in Hours, but in moods now. Morning, Noon, Afternoon, Evening, Night. Dawn and Dusk no more fixed than ever, always twisting and turning.
The night at least, it danced in ways the day did not. The stars blinked and turned and danced anew an ancient song. But the day... was.

Three days since she left.
The house has been full of holes since. Ever and always when she leaves. But now they are different.
Not anchored, not distant. Not leading somewhere new or somewhere else. But holes all the same.
Small ones. Ones you wouldn't even remember or notice.
At least most wouldn't.

But you...

You will see when she returns. Not a moment before. Only hints in the taste of the space left behind of what was beyond the veil.
Not even enough to tempt.

So you've been busy.


It took no more than a word.
Not even from you. But a word by a guest, come to offer to you. A word of another.
A guest. One who hadn't come to you. One who hadn't come for you. Nor for Velvet sweet.
Not on his own at least.

It wasn't even a word. Just a nod. The rest handled itself.

Three days.
And on the lunch of the third day, you were a Guest in the Garden.
A meal to be had with the most recent of kindnesses your summoner had granted.

Family.

"Ah, and thank you for joining me today! They say every meal is sweeter with company, and that must be doubly true for you. Please! Lady Mareinette." Velvet Steppes made motion, standing to the side as he pulled out the best sofa they had from the table. "Have a seat if you would."

And oh.
Words like honey, rich like wine. Careful and gentle and gentlemanly! With the scent of more than just a taste of desire under his hooves. Not so lost to a dream as the younger Velvet, nor so Glory blind as the Summoner. Passionate, careful, and knows his way around the words... the lip of a bottle too... Not near red enough for your taste, but oh.



You like him.

---

Seven days.
Six Nights.

And the world is rent open.

The house bends. But does not break.
The world churns, but does not bend.
And all is lost in the empty quiet where all hunger suffers and all longing dies.

A hole has appeared inside the house. A hole that was always there, but no more could pretend to be something else.
From your abode, you cannot see it.
But you do not need to see it to know it.


It is a rhythm that is old as time. It is a song as mournful as they come. It is a pattern that has worn itself bare.

It is the sound of a child crying.
It is the wound of family left all alone.
It is the scar of a broken promise.
It is the hurt of a broken heart.

A heart full of holes.

There is nothing to do but wait. To protect what needs protecting and let the gap swallow itself whole.
Such is the way with snakes.









Only
It doesn't.

Not with a calamitous snap. Not with the reverberations of chains. Not with something sharp or violent or self consumptive.

The holes echo.
They rent.
They shake.
They tremble and cut away at the world.​

But they fade.

Bit by Bit.
Wound by Wound.
Till the living wound is no more here.

And.

And!

There it is...​

There are no lips to lick.
There is no flesh to strain.
There was no heart to quicken.

But it felt

"[HEART]!"

Old.

A new taste in the air.
The wind carrying something that hadn't been felt in a very, very long time.
A new taste. An old flavor.

There was only one word.


It was

"[GRAIL]!"​

Power

 

[Diamondfiend]

[X] You gave him an ultimatum.
[X] Open it.